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When to buy

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  • 22-09-2010 1:20pm
    #1
    mathie
    Registered Users Posts: 5,102 ✭✭✭


    So I see a lot of people saying 'Don't buy now!' etc, etc. so I Was trying to work out when is a good time to buy.

    I'm going to work off PTSB?ESRI averages here (and yes I know - lies, damn lies and statistics)
    https://www.permanenttsb.ie/aboutus/housepriceindex/archive/
    (I can't find any data further than Q4 2005 - anyone know where I might find it?)

    According to the PTSB/ESRI index in Dublin the peak was April 2007 when the average was 429.800 (:eek:)
    (https://www.permanenttsb.ie/media/permanenttsb/pdfdocuments/housepriceindex/8461+HousePrice+Index+V2.pdf)

    In January 2002 the average in Dublin was 234.100

    (https://www.permanenttsb.ie/media/permanenttsb/pdfdocuments/housepriceindex/7616-housepriceV2.pdf)

    The average price for a Dublin house in quarter 1 2010 was €250,872, compared with €279,753 in quarter 4 2009.

    And the average price for a Dublin house in Quarter 2 2010 was EUR 242,000, compared with EUR 250,872 in Quarter 1 2010.

    ---

    Lets imagine that the bubble never happened.
    Does anyone know what the average house price in Dublin was?
    I'd guess around 100K?
    Lets say the bubble started in 1996 (http://thestory.ie/2010/07/08/house-prices/)
    Lets assume an annual increase in a sane market to be 4%.
    So in 2010 the average should be 175K (my sums may be wrong can someone verify?)
    So going on that (242K actual in 2010 and 175K projected from 1996) we've still a bit to go.

    My brain hurts now so I can't work out when we'd see a return to normality.
    And I understand there will be an overshoot :)


Comments

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    #2
    ntlbell
    Registered Users Posts: 16,288 ✭✭✭✭ntlbell


    I think this topic has been covered a lot over the last while.

    Personally, If you find somewhere you want to live, can very comfortably afford it, don't plan to move for a few years, then go for it.


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    #3
    gurramok
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    They were overpriced in 2002 too.

    Mortgage rates are not the issue now(var's are still not that pricy yet but offer no protection against hikes and long term fixed rates look better to me for security against future rate hikes), the issue is still high prices and catching a falling knife for those in secure jobs that wish to buy.

    When to buy? If your determined to buy, buy when you see value for money. We're not there yet.


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    #4
    mathie
    Registered Users Posts: 5,102 ✭✭✭mathie


    ntlbell wrote: »
    I think this topic has been covered a lot over the last while.

    Personally, If you find somewhere you want to live, can very comfortably afford it, don't plan to move for a few years, then go for it.

    I couldn't find any 'when to buy' threads.
    gurramok wrote: »
    They were overpriced in 2002 too.

    Precisely why I said "Lets say the bubble started in 1996"
    gurramok wrote: »
    Mortgage rates are not the issue now(var's are still not that pricy yet but offer no protection against hikes and long term fixed rates look better to me for security against future rate hikes), the issue is still high prices and catching a falling knife for those in secure jobs that wish to buy.

    When to buy? If your determined to buy, buy when you see value for money. We're not there yet.

    This is what I hear a lot of but what are you basing 'We're not there yet' on?
    Yield? Multiplier of wage? Some projection of averages (like I'm trying to put together here)


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    #5
    JoeyJJ
    Registered Users Posts: 3,663 ✭✭✭JoeyJJ


    I think the time to buy might not be for another year at least unless you are lucky to find a vendor that is setting a realistic price even then there might be a drop.

    My situation is I will probably buy next Spring/Summer have been holding off but need to settle my family before schools and all that, I hope there is a increase in rate of drops coming up to the budget.

    I know I will buy before the bottom but hope that maybe fixing next year could be a good tactic before the ECB raise their rates. But I can't imagine banks losing too much on fixed rates.


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    #6
    gurramok
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    mathie wrote: »
    This is what I hear a lot of but what are you basing 'We're not there yet' on?
    Yield? Multiplier of wage? Some projection of averages (like I'm trying to put together here)

    No value for money in my book. No house or apt out there is worth buying to me at their present asking prices. I could offer what I think its worth to me but it would be rejected by the unrealistic expectations of the seller hence I would be wasting my time.

    I'll keep waiting though ;):)


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    #7
    mathie
    Registered Users Posts: 5,102 ✭✭✭mathie


    gurramok wrote: »
    No value for money in my book. No house or apt out there is worth buying to me at their present asking prices. I could offer what I think its worth to me but it would be rejected by the unrealistic expectations of the seller hence I would be wasting my time.

    I'll keep waiting though ;):)

    And how do you arrive at that calculation?

    Anyway this thread is moving off where I'd started from.
    I was so close to finding an exact date for the bottom of the market!
    :pac::pac::pac:


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    #8
    Tony_Yeboah
    Registered Users Posts: 113 ✭✭Tony_Yeboah


    Short answer would be that nobody has a clue!

    Although i'm sure a lot of people on here would try and convince you otherwise.


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    #9
    gurramok
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    mathie wrote: »
    And how do you arrive at that calculation?

    Do I think a house in a certain area is worth a certain price to me at the moment? No.

    We could go into rental yields, multiples of the salaried buyer, quality of build, ample space of build etc.. but before we go there, are the asking prices realistic before even you look at the property?

    A simple example may help. I live in Ringsend, they are asking 355k for this 2bed charmer(http://www.daft.ie/1541135 ).

    Asking 340k for this 2bed cottage http://www.daft.ie/1485313

    Asking 285k for this 2bed cottage http://www.daft.ie/1487619

    Asking 295k for this baby http://www.daft.ie/1539845

    How about apartments?
    Asking 250k for this 45sqm shoebox http://www.daft.ie/1554157 1,400 mgt fees per yr there. (I know this locally)

    And on it goes to any area of Dublin you choose to live in.

    Are any of them worth buying to me? No. It maybe for others who in my opinion see no value for money ;)


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    #10
    Mr. Loverman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,001 ✭✭✭Mr. Loverman


    There is a nice graph on thepropertypin.com which gets re-posted every now and then which shows what the average house should cost inflation adjusted.

    I can't remember the exact figures and I am feeling too lazy to look for the graph, but I do remember it showed we are something like 100k off where we should be.


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