Thunderstorm/Convective Watch: Autumn 2010

DougL

Iancar29 wrote: »

GOD DAM BLOCKING HIGHS! :mad:

....i know i shouldnt be saying that , considering if that storm did make landfall here it could well do some damage let alone cause harm to people ruin our last weekend of good weather so ye morally i shouldnt .

Fixed that for you. There will be plenty of stormy weather in a month or so....

Bellabidul

DougL wrote: »

Fixed that for you. There will be plenty of stormy weather in a month or so....

Thanks Dougl!

Su Campu

A lot of sferics just off the Kerry/Cork coast at the moment. Extreme southwestern areas could get some action in the next hour or two.

nacho libre

rhonin

Beat me to it Nacho. :pac: Just posted this in the weather pictures thread. I didn't check here first!
Great photo.

Deep Easterly

Tuesday has the potential to bring some heavy showers following on from a fairly sharp cold front that is forecast to swing over Ireland towards the evening.




uppers forecast to cool rapidly after the front passes later in the evening:



which would help in beefing up showers or showery troughs later in the night: Western and Northwestern headlands especially could be at risk of a few strikes as a result. Probably will not happen like that but might be worth keeping an eye on.

IMC042

I agree!

Su Campu

Some action in the west this morning from a showery trough off the Mayo coast. Further west, the FAX has cold frontogenesis, which is giving some strikes to its south at the moment, and should develop further as it approaches throughout the day.

WolfeIRE

Sky News showed quite a bit of lightening over connaught in its forecast for this afternoon as a fairly organised band of rains pushes east. some places will see more rain than others.

WolfeIRE

Some intense showers making their way into SW Clare and Kerry at the moment.

Danno

A few strikes picked up from here over the last few hours. With the land heating up now, we might get a bit of increased activity as these boys push over the Shannon valley later on today.

WolfeIRE

getting very dark to my SW.

Danno

Four strikes from two separate showers there in the last minute... could these boys be lively?

WolfeIRE

Just had a flash of lightening. Now hail mixed in with heavy rain

edit: Power cut for 30 secs

Danno

Think I picked up that strike here... are you near the Burren?

Hope we get some action here in west dublin later. I could do with a good storm, releash some pent-up stress

WolfeIRE

Danno wrote: »

Think I picked up that strike here... are you near the Burren?

about 12 miles to the South, Danno

there were three in west clare too
http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&subpage_0=3&subpage_3=3

WolfeIRE

WolfeIRE wrote: »

getting very dark to my SW.

Your pictures are always stunning. You really live in a beautiful part of the world. Id love to wake up to that view every morning.

Deep Easterly

Dark as hell here with heavy but short lived spurts of rain/hail. Scud racing NE'wards.

Edit: Spurts becoming very intense, almost thunderstorm intensity but no thunder.

km79

is this the band of heavy/thundery showers mentioned in forecast for late afternoon or is there another band to follow?

WolfeIRE

this is only the outer edge of that band
http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm

click on nedbor to see rain forecast

Deep Easterly

km79 wrote: »

is this the band of heavy/thundery showers mentioned in forecast for late afternoon or is there another band to follow?

This is roughly where the main trough is lying at the moment:



so expect showers right up til evening at least.

WolfeIRE

the sun (remember that?) trying to break through at 1.30pm

heavy showers moving in

Deep Easterly

Demonic skies moving over. One very intense burst of rain lasting all but 10 seconds. Very black now.

Edit: Wind stopped. eerie silence. Black with lowering scud which is moving at a pace that belies the calm conditons on the ground.

Edit: rain, but not too heavy. Come on for God sake!!!

Edit: pepping up a little but not by much. So dark have to put lights on.

Edit: Stopped raining again! Thundery tone to the light.

Edit: White dense fall streaks to my west. Move this way please.

Edit: Ice cream van in the distance playing a spooky ding a ling tune and a dog baking as well. Still black but only dribs and drabs of rain.

Edit: Still black but raining at an intensity I would associate with a weak warm front trapped under a high pressure cell. Yet another flop it seems.

Edit: Brightning up after a what looked like so much, but gave so little. Roll on 2011.

Edit: Dog offers me freshly baked biscuit to comfort me.

WolfeIRE

recent hail at belmullet and recent thunder at valentia
http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

strikes recorded off kerry coast in past hour

Su Campu

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Demonic skies moving over. One very intense burst of rain lasting all but 10 seconds. Very black now.

Edit: Wind stopped. eerie silence. Black with lowering scud which is moving at a pace that belies the calm conditons on the ground.

Edit: rain, but not too heavy. Come on for God sake!!!

Edit: pepping up a little but not by much. So dark have to put lights on.

Edit: Stopped raining again! Thundery tone to the light.

Edit: White dense fall streaks to my west. Move this way please.

Edit: Ice cream van in the distance playing a spooky ding a ling tune and a dog baking as well. Still black but only dribs and drabs of rain.

Mmmmmm, what's he baking - dog biscuits?

Deep Easterly

Raging wind now!!!!!!!!

Lumi

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Demonic skies moving over. One very intense burst of rain lasting all but 10 seconds. Very black now.

Edit: Wind stopped. eerie silence. Black with lowering scud which is moving at a pace that belies the calm conditons on the ground.

Edit: rain, but not too heavy. Come on for God sake!!!

Edit: pepping up a little but not by much. So dark have to put lights on.

Edit: Stopped raining again! Thundery tone to the light.

Edit: White dense fall streaks to my west. Move this way please.

Edit: Ice cream van in the distance playing a spooky ding a ling tune and a dog baking as well. Still black but only dribs and drabs of rain.

Edit: Still black but raining at an intensity I would associate with a weak warm front trapped under a high pressure cell. Yet another flop it seems.

Edit: Brightning up after a what looked like so much, but gave so little. Roll on 2011.

Edit: Dog offers me freshly baked biscuit to comfort me.

I'd ease off on the auld 'flu meds there P :D:D
Dry and bright in Galway - 'demonic skies' staying well to the north

sunbabe08

heavy showers passing here in cork.:(

Deep Easterly

Fionagus wrote: »

I'd ease off on the auld 'flu meds there P :D:D
Dry and bright in Galway - 'demonic skies' staying well to the north

Your right, I am little zapped out on Nurofen Plus at the moment!!!

Su Campu

I'm sitting at Dublin Airport waiting on a flight to arrive and it's just starting to get frisky, dark solid line of black approaching from the west, even the departing pilots are asking for early left turns to avoid it.

TomTom

Sitting here in the office, rain doing my head in, you are correct about the lightning, although mayo and sligo are the most active places in the county today by far. Only one strike off kerry so far.

Deep Easterly

A couple of flashes and one loud booming rumble of thunder here in the last 10 mins.

Lumi

Deep Easterly wrote: »

A couple of flashes and one loud booming rumble of thunder here in the last 10 mins.

Heavy, driving rain and strong SW'ly winds in Galway. One distant rumble of thunder a few mins ago but nothing since. Great evening to be walking home

Deep Easterly

Fionagus wrote: »

Heavy, driving rain and strong SW'ly winds in Galway. One distant rumble of thunder a few mins ago but nothing since. Great evening to be walking home

Yep, shower is really intense. Wait til its over F. Shouldn't be long.

WolfeIRE

heavy hail shower here, very strong sw winds.

Hooter23

Sky looks so weird over Galway city it's lashing more than ever at the same time you can see the sun setting :pac:

Deep Easterly

Same here Hooter. Big rainbow as well. Thunder has stopped. Only the 3rd day of observed thunder here this year. Still, better than nothing.

Iancar29

Hooter23 wrote: »

Sky looks so weird over Galway city it's lashing more than ever at the same time you can see the sun setting :pac:

PICTURE?

Lumi

Hooter23 wrote: »

Sky looks so weird over Galway city it's lashing more than ever at the same time you can see the sun setting :pac:

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Same here Hooter. Big rainbow as well. Thunder has stopped. Only the 3rd day of observed thunder here this year. Still, better than nothing.

The sky is just incredible in Galway - it was worth getting soaked
Took these photos with the phone within minutes of each other but they're not great unfortunately - the first one looking SW with the sun setting and the second SE & the magnificant double rainbow.

Iancar29

Fionagus wrote: »

The sky is just incredible in Galway - it was worth getting soaked
Took these photos with the phone but they're not great - the first one looking SW with the sun setting and the second SE & the magnificant double rainbow.

2nd one is great... u can edit ur post to hav the pics come up on the page instead of clicking into them once ya hav them uploaded, just open ur pics and on a seperate window copy the url into the url picture part.... if that makes any sense ha

Takeshi_Kovacs

Getting some heavy rain, and now thunder and lightning down here

jimmynokia

hope we get lightning here in dub have not seen any in long time:(

Su Campu

ESTOFEX have a big fat Level 1 warning issued for us for strong gusts and tornadoes tomorrow. I'd say it's a bit optimistic, but let's hope I'm wrong.

http://www.estofex.org/

Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 01 Nov 2010 06:00 to Tue 02 Nov 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 31 Oct 2010 19:33
Forecaster: DAHL


A level 1 was issued for the British Isles for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

A level 2 was issued for NE Italy mainly for excessive precipitation.

A level 2 was issued for S Italy mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes and to a lesser extent for large hail and excessive rainfall.

SYNOPSIS

A seasonably strong meandering upper frontal zone is stretching from the Atlantic across the northern parts of Europe into Russia. An intense jet streak imbedded in this frontal zone, and an attendant SFC cold front are expected to cross the British Isles late in the period. Meanwhile... the western European long-wave trough will be closing off into a cut-off cyclone, migrating into the central Mediterranean on Monday.

DISCUSSION

British Isles

In along the cold front that is to cross the British Isles on Monday and Monday night ... a strongly-forced line of convection is anticipated. For the given situation, the models indicate an unsusually clear signal in the CAPE/ICAPE fields. Confidence is thus rather high that a line of convection will indeed form. As usually happens with such quasi-linear convective systems ... widespread strong/severe wind gusts are to be expected, along with tornadoes associated with bow echoes/line segments. It currently seems that the majority of the gusts will be only marginally (sub)severe, so that a LVL1 should be sufficient. Comparatively shallow cellular convection is anticipated in the wake of the front. Strong wind gusts may accompany the strongest of these showers/thunderstorms.

Central Mediterranean

There seem to be two foci for potentially severe weather. The northern focus appears to be tied to warm advection and possibly also to orographic forcing. CAPE and shear should be rather weak, but strong mesoscale ascent should support large amounts of rain, augmented by imbedded convective cells. The latest WRF runs place the highest precip/flood threat over extreme NE Italy.

Farther south ... 25 m/s deep shear will be in place, along with 10 to 15 m/s low-level shear. Overall, CAPE seems to be seasonably weak (a few 100 J/kg), but given decent large- and mesoscale forcing as well as the favorable shear, well-organized storms are anticipated.
Forecast hodographs show partly strong low-level curvature, suggesting that chances for persistent supercells exist. However, rather strong forcing and weak capping suggest that storms may rapidly coagulate into clusters and/or lines or line segments. The main threats should thus be severe wind gusts and probably a few tornadoes, along with excessive convective rainfall. Any persistent isolated supercell would in addition pose a threat for large hail. The severe threat may last well into Monday night.

IMC042

Torro.org.uk havent said anything in ages, and no warning for tomorrow either!

Danno

My thoughts on this... http://www.irelandsweather.com/forum/thunderstorms-discussion/thunderstorms-and-convective-potential-289/msg34475/?topicseen#msg34475

WolfeIRE

some strikes appearing off west and sw coast
http://sproule.co.uk/weather/svlightning.html
http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&subpage_3=3

Su Campu

With all of the focus on Sunday night, don't forget we should get some hefty showers, possibly thundery, tomorrow.

DOCARCH

Some activity all right from those showers.

http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html?

Su Campu

The heaviest showers should be moving eastwards across the northern half of the country, where the coldest upper temperatures are. Munster should escape relatively lightly.