Long Shot Saturday

longshotvalue

Long Shot Saturday

Totesport.com Challenge Cup Ascot 3:40

Advanced, Im hoping tomorrow is the day for one of my Favorite horses, he has been steadily improving this year up to a point of a good 4th in the Silver Cup last week, and very good second against far higher rated horses in a listed race the time before, and is back in the race he won last year of the same mark with the exact same draw in stall 20. His place price of 7.0 on betfair looks very good value considering he tends to be a consistent performer. Once he gets a good start as he usually does, he may be able to hold off most of the field.


2 Points Each Way 33/1 Bet365 paying 12345



Imperial Guest, Has good course form, and his 7th in the Victoria Racing Club International, over C&D looks very good on review, easily being the best of those that stayed down the center. He looked to be coming back into form in his last race with a decent 2nd , and considering he was also 3rd over C&D earlier this year in the Buckingham Palace as well, albeit of a 3lbs lower mark, he looks overpriced at the moment at 25/1 Paddy Power paying 12345


2 Points Each Way 25/1 PP



J R Taylor Handicap Haydock 3:10

Everymanforhimself, I’m surprised considering his good run last week in the Bronze cup, that he is available at 16/1 in this race, he is just about off his lowest ever mark and defiantly looked improved last week. Id be hopeful of further improvement from that run here and he looks overpriced. Although he is drawn low enough which is usually a disadvantage around here, most of the favorites in the race are also drawn low. He also has a couple of decent runs on soft from few opportunities and stays 7f which should help in this.

1 Point Each Way 16/1 PP


Taylormade Betting Lester Piggott 'Start To Finish' Handicap Haydock 3L45

Archers Road, A lot of his best form looks to be on ground with some cut, and he won first time out this year in Chester on Good-Soft, since then he has had 3 runs on Good-Firm and im going to give him a chance here at a decent price on the expected Soft ground. He also has run less than most of the others this year which can only help. His mark of 94 looks good as its 1 lbs lower than his win earlier this year. Currently 27 win 6.6 Place

1 Point win 1 Point Place


Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Ascot 4:15

Although everything points to Mafki in this race, with the ground possibly going against Rip Van Winkle, im going to give Beethoven and decent chance here. He looks to me to be the 3rd best in the race, and is as tough as they come. The Drop in trip should suit him better than RIP, and he looks overpriced to place.

1 Point Each Way 20/1

Gavin "shels"

aidankkk wrote: »

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Ascot 4:15

Although everything points to Mafki in this race, with the ground possibly going against Rip Van Winkle, im going to give Beethoven and decent chance here. He looks to me to be the 3rd best in the race, and is as tough as they come. The Drop in trip should suit him better than RIP, and he looks overpriced to place.

1 Point Each Way 20/1

Had picked Beethoven out myself earlier, had im backed in the Irish Champion Stakes earlier this month and thought he ran well especially being 33/1, ground suited him that day and as you said looks likely tomorrow too. Would have probably preferred JP riding him but hopefully Moore can do him justice.

longshotvalue

[FONT=&quot]15:00 Newmarket 1m[/FONT][FONT=&quot]Kingdom Of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes [/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]Spacious[/FONT] [FONT=&quot], looks the value bet here, she has been running well this year in defeat, and her last 2 runs looked better and better, and I’m not at all convinced that there is anything between the top 5 in the race. But at this time of the year she may be able to tough it out better than the rest and at what seems the most reasonable price of the contenders. Currently 8.4 to win[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
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[FONT=&quot]2 Points Win[/FONT]

15:40 Newmarket, totesport.com Cambridgeshire

Smokey Oakey, although he looks to be drawn a bit high, as the center looks to be the best, he just looks overpriced here considering he is one of the few in the race that looks sure to improve for soft going. He last run as very poor but its reflected in the price and he has a record of producing good and bad runs. He has had a lot less racing than most of these and considering his Lincoln run at the beginning of the year on Soft off a 5lbs higher mark over 1 furlong less where he was really staying on well, he looks to be in with a decent shot of returning to form here at a decent price. Currently 50/1 Paying 12345 Victor Chandler

1 Point Each Way.

Dream Lodge, im going to give him a small chance at a huge price mostly based on a decent run on Good-Soft last july in a Conditions Race, he hasn’t encountered ground as soft as this very often but has come down a few pounds this year despite putting in a few decent performances. He improved last year towards the end of the year, and his last run might signify some kind of revival. Currently 140 Win 16 Place

1 Point Win 1 Point Place



[FONT=&quot]14:25 Newmarket, 7f [/FONT][FONT=&quot]500,000 Tattersalls Millions 2yo Trophy[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Factum[/FONT][FONT=&quot], looks way overpriced considering his run last weekend on Soft at the Curragh, where he was hampered 1f out and ran on again towards the end although the step back in trip may not be ideal, conditions will be testing tomorrow, and he is sure to stay and act. His high/middle draw may be good as well. Currently 19.5. Win 4.8 place[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]1 Point Win 1 Point Place[/FONT]