D3PO's NCAAF & NFL betting

D3PO

Hi New to this forum introduced to me by Archimedies from the American Football forum. So I said Id post my American Football bets on here like he does.

I dont work a weighting system my plays are always wighted equally with each stake €100

My current season record

Wk 1 Profit €1081.81
Wk 2 Profit €166.64
Wk 3 Loss €316.18

Season to date €932.27

NCAA

Bama minus 7 versus Arkansas @ 10/11

Despite the fact Arkansas are at home and they have arguably one of the 4 best QB's in college football right now I like Alabama to cover here, the fact is Ryan Mallett hasnt faced a pass rush or a defense even remotely as good as Saban's defending champs so far this season. The pocket will collapse regularly on Mallett and with good coverage in the secondary there will be three and outs for Arkansas which is the main reason I like Alabama.

Ingram and Richardson are without doubt the most talented backfield double act in college football and have a nice balance with McElroy at QB to stop Arkansas putting 8 in the box to neutralise the threat of the run game. I predict a close first half with perhaps even the Razorbacks leading a close one at the interval, but a tiring Arkansas defense will struggle to keep going and stopping the run as Alabama drain their strength as the dominate time of possesion

Texas minus 16 versus UCLA @ 10/11

Whilst many will disagree with this pick given how anemic the Texas offense has been so far this season with signal caller Gilbert behind centre the fact is the season starts here for Texas. This is the warm up for their biggest regular season game versus OU. They looked much better last week versus Texas Tech and only for a couple of tipped passes could have won that very comfortably.

UCLA have been notoriusly bad travelers in recent times and that has continued into this year against an average Kansas state team. The pasting they recieved from Stanford in game 2 is another inditment to this UCLA team and despite beating a ranked Houston last week it has to be put into context as Houston had to play over half the game without star QB Case Keenum and had their 3rd string in play.

This will be close to the spread and is a marginal call but I see Texas just covering with a score of 33 - 14

Over 56.5 points Boise v Oregon State

Two words here for this matchup. Style points. Thats what its all about for Boise with V Tech embarrasing themselves against James Maddison the Broncos have to prove themselves for the polls all over again. This might perhaps be the last ranked team they play this year although they will be praying that Fresno or Nevada mean thats not the case. Essentially they have to treat this like a cup final and rack up as many points as possible. They are a quick strike offense and are averaging over 40 points a game this year. Oregon have proven earlier this eyar against a good TCU defense that they can also score some points so for my mind the over is the play here.

Arizona - 7 v Cal @ 10/11

To me this one is a no brainer. But typically its the "bankers" that burn ya. Cal were terrible against Non AQ Nevada last week and Arizona took a huge step last week from a confidence perspective knocking off #9 Iowa. Arizona is a nicely balanced team with both offense and defense being ranked in the top 15 nationally. Its a conference game so of course its gong to be that much tighter as a result but with Home field advantage I give Zona the edge to pull this out in a relatively low scoring game.

NFL

Eagles - 3 v Jags @ Evens

Big moment for Mick Vick back as a starting NFL WB for the first time since his sabatical from the league. To be honest it couldnt come at a better time matchup wise after posting consequtive 100 passer rating games for only his second time every. The jags secondary is terrible one of the most porus in the league and if Vick can keep with a pass first mentality the the Eagles shouldnt have an issue covering. The caveat here is the Eagles defense which hasnt looked great itself so far this year, but if Vick can strike early and often and keep MJD out of the playcalling they cover relatively comfortably.

Redskins - 3.5 V Rams @ 10/11

Redskins with McNaab under centre look a whole new proposition. They threw away a 2-0 start against the Texans last week and Im sure there read to make amense immediatly against an Improving rams team. This game ultimatly comes down to firepower and right now the supporting case for the Rams is one draft away from being properly competitive, which should allow the Redskins cover with ease.

x PyRo

Brilliant post.

Best of luck mate, looking forwards to seeing your future posts.

Keep up the good work.

Peyton Manning

Great post mate, I've already been following you on the American Football forum but it's good to see your reasoning behind these bets now.

Us AF heads are slowly taking this place over! :pac:

x PyRo

Archimedes wrote: »

Us AF heads are slowly taking this place over! :pac:

Keep 'em coming mate. :pac:

D3PO

Thanks Pyro. I shall be posting my plays here through the season. I hope it helps a few on here win a few quid