October 2010 Boards forecast contest

pauldry · 11-10-2010 12:08am

nacho libre wrote: »

this is going to be a disastrous month for me- well not that i had any chance of winning( my best efforts through private messages to M.T. Cranium were in vain:( ) the competition. I'm going to be in the relegation zone come the end of the month

Think it is going to be a low one for most of us. That indian Summer thing took us all by surprise especially as it fell on the bonus question area and pulled temperatures of over 20degrees on top of us a month AFTER the last 20 degree event.

Nobody will ever do well in all the months. Guess November is the next thing we better start to consider. I think Ill put my November max at 25c just in case.

M.T. Cranium · 11-10-2010 7:18am

Not to worry, we'll never relegate, just continual league expansion until everyone is playing. The bonus question will be scored from rank order so people might do better than they think on that. The odd thiing was, the forecasts weren't so far off by mid-day when the high normally occurs, it was recorded at 00 and 01h in this case.

M.T. Cranium · 11-10-2010 8:11am

Actually, this guy did get relegated:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wf3DeC7K4z0

John mac · 11-10-2010 9:05am

that's mad Ted.

Good for Monday.

Deep Easterly · 11-10-2010 5:07pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Actually, this guy did get relegated:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wf3DeC7K4z0

Is it me or does anybody else find the fella in that video clip quite scary??

thetonynator · 11-10-2010 7:58pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Is it me or does anybody else find the fella in that video clip quite scary??

It's not just you . . .

pauldry · 14-10-2010 1:53pm

IMT is at 12.1c as far as I can see so far. This has to be confirmed by the experts.

Its going to take a tumble next week though and sunshine figure which is way above normal is also going to take a hit as 4 cloudy days are coming with only a few sunny spells.

Rainfall is still way below normal this month with 11 to 13mm seemingly the range of most stations on met.

Sligo is still stuck on 12mm

M.T. Cranium · 15-10-2010 4:10pm

For the first two weeks,

IMT sitting at 12.0 C

rainfall down to 31% after an almost dry seven days.

sunshine down to 147% after a few cloudy days cut into the large surplus.

Deep Easterly · 17-10-2010 2:25pm

IMT for October up to the 16th on 11.6c, this is 0.7c above the 61-90 norm for the first half of the month.

Here is the IMT trend for the month so in chart form, with the trend line and value from both 2008 & 2009 thrown in for comparison:

Not related to the competiion in anyway, but the Irish Mean Rainfall (IMR) is running remarkably low this month so far. In fact, the first 16 days of the month has only brought a percentage figure of 27.5% of the mean rainfall that would be expected (based on the 61-90) for the period over the region.

Here is a chart showing the mean IMR total so far for October, again, with values for the same period in 2008 & 2009 shown just to compare:

A very dry month so far. In fact, one of many very dry months so far in 2010.

A quick look back the weather on this day last year:

Synoptically, not altogher that different to the current set up with plenty of mid-Atlantic blocking hanging around with the odd embedded weak front hanging close to Ireland:

Max temps reached between 13c and 15c during the afternoon of the 17th October 2009, while minima ranged from 0c to 5c, pretty similar to the values recorded today!!

Data sources:
Met Eireann/KNMI

thetonynator · 17-10-2010 3:14pm

Graph line colours are a bit mixed up there DE!!!

Deep Easterly · 17-10-2010 3:24pm

thetonynator wrote: »

Graph line colours are a bit mixed up there DE!!!

Indeed they were Tonyator. Well spotted. Sorted now

M.T. Cranium · 18-10-2010 4:41am

-0.1 C at Mullingar on Sunday before dawn ... believe this to be the coldest so far.

Deep Easterly · 20-10-2010 8:12pm

IMT down to 11.1c at the moment, around 0.4c above average but should continue to fall over the next couple of days bringing the value to near normal.

M.T. Cranium · 21-10-2010 7:58am

Lowest for month now -1.3 at Casement (20th).

Looking ahead to November, thinking of making the bonus question related to first snowfall. Any suggestions welcome.

John mac · 21-10-2010 8:46am

What about 17th ? The Leonids meteor shower .:D

pauldry · 21-10-2010 11:05am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Lowest for month now -1.3 at Casement (20th).

Looking ahead to November, thinking of making the bonus question related to first snowfall. Any suggestions welcome.

Or the biggest hailstone!:D

Theres never one for highest wind gust(except Winter contest) could do this if none for snow

thetonynator · 21-10-2010 4:43pm

What if it doesn't snow?!

Speak Now · 21-10-2010 5:22pm

thetonynator wrote: »

What if it doesn't snow?!

Hope that you've predicted no snow then

hellboy99 · 21-10-2010 9:09pm

pauldry wrote: »

Theres never one for highest wind gust(except Winter contest) could do this if none for snow

+1

M.T. Cranium · 21-10-2010 9:38pm

I think we had highest wind gust last October or November, can't remember which. Well I may go with that, see how the charts are looking around
the 27th when this is due to be posted.

The IMT may recover a bit from here, some rather mild nights ahead even if days are not that warm. Should finish somewhere near 10.5 to 11 on current charts.

Will be posting my usual seven-day updates tomorrow if I remember to look. But there has still been very little rain and what's coming Friday and Saturday won't show up in this update, I figure there will be enough rain between now and end of month to move the final figures back into 70-80 per cent range and avoid use of the mercy rule there. Sunshine looks to be locked into a range near 125% eventually as the rest of the month seems about normal now.

M.T. Cranium · 22-10-2010 5:36pm

Okay, here's your update for week three ...

After two weeks, IMT was sitting at 12.0 C, this past week saw 8.3 C and that left the balance at 10.8 C (today won't change that much).

After two weeks, rainfall was down to 31% and this past week saw only 20% which left the balance before today's rain at 27% but I am estimating that it will stand at 40% after today's widespread 10-15 mms. Two or three more days like today may bring these figures up towards 80% perhaps, so the wetter forecasts are not entirely dead in the water yet. (the weather forecasts may be, but not the wetter forecasts) :cool:

If my math is correct, or even approximately correct, it would take about 50 mms of rain on average beyond today's amounts, to bring this month back to normal. We may see quite a bit of that, actually. Well I should say you will see quite a bit of that, because I will be seeing quite a bit of some other rain here.

Meanwhile, after two weeks the sunshine average was 147% and this remains virtually unchanged (148%) after the 150% performance of the past seven days (call it 143% now though, after today's largely cloudy skies). This is just about enough to set the base at 100% for the end of the month, and you could add about 1% for every hour of sunshine that occurs from now on.

M.T. Cranium · 25-10-2010 4:27am

-3 C at Mullingar and Ballyhaise at 0400h Monday. No doubt somewhat lower readings will come in before this frost breaks.

(added at 07h) ... by 0600h Mullingar had dropped to -4 C with several other stations at -3 C.

hellboy99 · 25-10-2010 7:01am

-1.9c here

thetonynator · 25-10-2010 11:37am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

-3 C at Mullingar and Ballyhaise at 0400h Monday. No doubt somewhat lower readings will come in before this frost breaks.

(added at 07h) ... by 0600h Mullingar had dropped to -4 C with several other stations at -3 C.

There goes my min forecast for the month . .. and i was doing so well until last night!! Any idea what the IMTis on now???

Deep Easterly · 25-10-2010 1:26pm

thetonynator wrote: »

! Any idea what the IMTis on now???

Not really, as met eireann have not updated their daily data page over the last few days.

However, just based on the Ogimet reports, which are not reliable regarding the minima values up to 0000hrs, the IMT up to midnight last is standing at 10.2c, close to the monthly normal and 0.2c below for the 24 day period since the first.

Chart showing (unofficial) trend. Will need to be updated once the met eireann reports are updated and will post up when so.

Cooling down.

Deep Easterly · 27-10-2010 3:57pm

Still no updates on the temps over the weekend on the met eireann site to give a accurate IMT update. Hopefully they will be by the end of the week.

pauldry · 27-10-2010 4:15pm

yeah Casement is 10.2c. This is usually one of the coldest but the rest are blank but certainly only Mullingar and maybe Oak Park would be near the 10.2c . Think the core of that severe frost on the marathon morning was in the East around Meath and Dublin so I will guess that Oak Park is slightly higher than 10.2c and Claremorris higher again as is Shannon.

Probably IMT at 10.6c but well see. MT says it will finish round 10.5c to 11c

Su Campu · 27-10-2010 11:29pm

Here are the daily summaries for each of the IMT stations, they will fill in the blanks.

Casement
Oak Park
Shannon
Claremorris
Mullingar

pauldry · 28-10-2010 10:15am

IMT UPDATE JUST UNDER 10.2C

Deep Easterly · 28-10-2010 1:55pm

pauldry wrote: »

IMT UPDATE JUST UNDER 10.2C

Spot on Paul. Met data updated at last. Su Campu, cheers for the links. I have been using those figures since the 21st but still did not equate properly to the met eireann data. That data may well be right, but for the life of me I cannot adjust my head around the UTC time it uses and how this aligns itself with Irish time.

Here is the updated IMT chart using the latest met eireann data up to the 27th:

Close to average.

Irish Mean Rainfall (IMR) standing at just 51.6% of normal for the month so far. Casement's October's total value for example still only on 16.8mm. Just over 29mm at Oak Park and edging near the 70mm at Claremorris. Very very low values for what is normally one of the wettest months of the year.

October 2010 Boards forecast contest

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