October 2010 Boards forecast contest

pauldry

Rain is 81mm for month in Sligo because of a major thunderstorm (16mm) yesterday

John mac

anyone know what the % rain is running at ?

M.T. Cranium

The rainfall calculation something like this (I was going to update tomorrow on the basis of the fourth week completed) ...

On the 21st it stood at 27%

If I assume the average today will be 5 mms, this seven day period will sit around 160% of normal for the week.

That gives us (3x27 + 160) / 4 as the new percentage, which turns out to be

60%.

However, if it rains heavily on Friday, Saturday and Sunday this is likely to edge up towards a finishing point not far from 100%. Basically, every day with a national average of 12 mms adds about 10% to the current value.

Check in tomorrow for slightly more accurate updates on rainfall and sunshine.

The sunshine figures will likely drop a few percentage points from tomorrow's report (which I estimate will be 140% for the month).

These very mild days and nights will tend to push the IMT up a few tenths near the end of the month.

Su Campu

The rain totals get bigger......and Deep Easterly's graphs get snazzier!

M.T. Cranium

Slight revisions of my earlier estimates:

after fourth week, rainfall was at 57%, after today, possibly 72%

after fourth week, sunshine was at 141%, after today, 138%

next update will be the final damages.

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

after today, possibly 72%

Going only by the IMR value (not used in competition), the % of normal rainfall is standing at 73.1%. So a good chance that the nationwide % of normal (which is used by M.T) is hovering around 72% as of today!

thetonynator

DE, any idea what the yearly average temp is at??? And what is that compared to normal?

Thanks!!!

Deep Easterly

thetonynator wrote: »

DE, any idea what the yearly average temp is at??? And what is that compared to normal?

IMT for the year so far on 9.88c, this is 0.16c below normal.

Other stats for 2010 so far:
IMT Mean Max: 14.0c (+0.2c)
IMT Mean Min: 5.7c (-0.5c)
IMR Rainfal: 675.7mm (95.0%)

thetonynator

10.06 is what i got but might have made a mistake . . .seems a bit lower than i thought it was . . .

Deep Easterly

thetonynator wrote: »

10.06 is what i got but might have made a mistake .

No, you did not. 10.06c is the exact final IMT October value. Rounded off, it comes to 10.1c. I think Danno guessed the closest this month but MT will confirm later on I assume.

Chart below showing IMT trend for the month. Included is IMT October trend for 1994 & 1987 as well, which are based on 0-24hrs UTC values, and also uses data from the sadly missed Kilkenny met station as there is no publically available data for Oak Park from before 2008 as far as I am aware, but shouldn't make much difference anyway to the final IMT trend and value for those years:




IMR (Irish Mean Rainfall) October percentage value finished at 73.4% so a dry month overall, and very dry in parts of the east, with Casement recieving just over 50% of its normal rainfall total for the month.

M.T will have all the other relevant stats later on.



All stats above c/o
met eireann
Ogimet

pauldry

im b*ll*cked this month.

:eek:

M.T. Cranium

Good evening, I would like to have the relevant details, but they aren't published yet (normally the climate summary appears on the first day of the month).

However, pretty sure that the IMT is 10.1, the max 20.6, the min -4.1, estimate rainfall at 75% and sunshine at 130%. On that basis, have estimated scoring as follows, note this is provisional and will be adjusted when final data available.

Provisional scoring for October

Forecaster ......... IMT ..... max ..... min ..... rain ..... sun ..... Val 9th
_________________________________________________________

based on ........... 10.1 ... 20.6 ..... -4.1 ..... 080 ..... 130 ..... 19.4

SeaFields ........... 19 .... 19* .... 19 ...... 04* ..... 09 ..... 03 ..... 73
Danno* ............. 25 ..... 07* .... 00 ..... 12*...... 09 ..... 09 ..... 62=60
John mac ........... 23 ..... 00 ..... 18 ...... 06* .... 06 ..... 04 ..... 57
hellboy99 ........... 17 ..... 12*.... 14 ...... 02* .... 05 ..... 06 ..... 56
Su Campu .......... 20 ..... 06* .... 16 ..... 00 ...... 06 ..... 06 ..... 54
waterways ......... 19 ..... 17* .... 06 ..... 07* .... 05 ..... 00 ..... 54
Thetonynator ..... 21 ..... 08* ..... 01 .... 12*..... 06 ..... 05 ..... 53
mickger844posts . 20 ..... 04* ..... 01 .... 14*..... 06 ..... 07 ..... 52
DOCARCH ........... 18 .... 08* ..... 01 .... 12* ..... 05 ..... 08 ..... 52
M.T. Cranium ...... 15 .... 13*...... 12 .... 01* ..... 04 ..... 03 ..... 48
nilhg ................. 15 ..... 00 ...... 04 .... 12*...... 06 ..... 08 ..... 45
kindredspirit ....... 14 ..... 09*..... 09 ..... 00 ...... 05 ..... 06 ..... 43
jd ..................... 17 ..... 02*.... 16 ..... 02* ..... 05 ..... 01 ..... 43
talkabout ........... 21 ..... 00 ..... 15 ..... 04* ..... 02 ..... 00 ..... 42
gothwalk ........... 24 ..... 00 ...... 09 ..... 04* ..... 00 ..... 04 ..... 41
Rebelbrowser ...... 17 ..... 00 ..... 13 ..... 03* ..... 06 ..... 00 ..... 39
Fionagus ............ 17 ..... 00 ..... 17 ..... 00 ...... 02 ..... 00 ..... 36

Con Sensus ........ 17 ..... 01*..... 07 ..... 03* .... 04 ..... 03 ..... 35

homolumo .......... 21 ..... 00 ..... 08 ..... 04* ..... 02 ..... 00 ..... 35
jambofc* ........... 11 ..... 07*.... 00 ..... 00 ....... 06 ..... 10 ..... 34
Joe Public .......... 13 ..... 00 ..... 08 ..... 01* ..... 04 ..... 08 ..... 34
Strasser ............ 15 ..... 00 ..... 03 ..... 02* ..... 03 ..... 09 ..... 32
Sponge Bob ........ 18 .... 04* .... 01 ..... 00 ...... 06 ..... 03 ..... 32
The Inquisitor ..... 16 ..... 01*.... 11 ..... 00 ...... 03 ..... 00 ..... 31
nacho libre ......... 22 ..... 00 ..... 03 ..... 02* .... 02 ..... 00 ..... 29
redsunset .......... 14 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ...... 04 ..... 10 ..... 28
Jerry Seinfeld ..... 18 ..... 01* .... 00 ..... 00 ...... 00 ..... 02 ..... 21
WolfeIRE ........... 01 ..... 06* .... 09 ..... 00 ...... 02 ..... 01 ..... 19
pauldry ............. 13 ..... 02* .... 01 ..... 00 ...... 03 ..... 00 ..... 19
dasa29 ............. 16 ..... 00 ...... 00 ..... 00 ...... 01 ..... 00 ..... 17
200motels ......... 11 ..... 00 ..... 05 ..... 00 ...... 00 ..... 00 ..... 16

The minimum scoring rule or mercy rule was applied to the monthly max temperature and to rainfall (although in that case it only made slight differences). The bonus question as always yields maximum scores by rank order and so the actual error makes no difference there, your score is based on two at ten, two at nine, etc.

These scores may change slightly when I get final rainfall and sunshine figures, but as the rainfall is off the "mercy rule" already, if I have estimated high there won't be any changes, and if low probably almost the same. So, the scores are unlikely to change by more than one or two points and pretty much in the same direction as almost everyone's guess was low on sunshine and max temp (the latter, you can regard as already set because it's on the curve, a higher max won't change these scores).

The 62=60 score for Danno reflects the late penalty rule (10% of scores above 60 but reduced to 60) so Danno will stay at 60 if his score moves around in the range 61-66.

Look for these scores to be confirmed in the annual scoring thread some time later this week, at which point I can update the annual scoring thread.

Speak Now

Ha ha 21 even beats the 22 i got in May, didnt think it would be possible

homolumo

a little better for me than my previous 2 efforts thanks to the IMT.

pauldry

I got 72 i think in September and only 19 this month. Quite the Mr Extreme I am

SeaFields

***Happy dance ***

M.T. Cranium

I have been able to confirm the data for October, the actual sunshine average was 73% which won't change the scores and the actual sunshine was 142% which will result in contestants who scored any points for their sunshine forecast losing one point (sorry) except for Danno whose forecast actually goes up one point but then the penalty clause keeps him at 60. This October scoring will be quickly updated in the annual scoring thread and will allow me to update the annual table over the next hour or so.

Danno

Thanks MT... that damn 30 days in September has cost me three points. Grrr...

M.T. Cranium

Not to worry, you've moved into first place in all categories in the annual race, have posted the updates on the annual scoring thread.

Joe Public

Danno wrote: »

Thanks MT... that damn 30 days in September has cost me three points. Grrr...

Any more and you could lose your license!! see what happened DE?