Waterford Election 2011

comeraghs

Lets say that either the bye-election is held in the middle of next year or the Govt collapses & there is a general election .... Who do you think would get in in Waterford?

comeraghs

FF might struggle to keep even one seat .... Kennelly isn´t exactly lighting up the world

FG would be hoping for 2 ... but I think John Deasy might be after messing things up for himself ,..... Coffey is very likely ... esp in a bye-election

Labour ... Will O´Shea run? Will Halligan join Lab?

Sinn Fein? possibly!

Greens .... no chance ... McCann screwed up what little chance that party had!

Mary Roche or another as an Independent?

hardybuck

If it is a bye-election I think Paudie Coffey will walk it.

People in Waterford have mentioned that we might be better off with an independant-they are only powerful when the party in power holds a very narrow majority, and the swing in their vote could make a huge difference. However, in the next election this will not be the case. There will be a strong majority shared by probably FG and LAB.

Kenneally could make himself a hero if he made a stand on something Waterford related and went independant. For him being FF will have pros and cons come the next election. Certain people will turn on him for being FF, others will continue to vote for him as he will be the only serious FF candidate. However, I think he has his heart set on a junior ministry and will sit tight, and could scrape in again.

Much depends on the Labour candidates. Its unclear if O'Shea will go again, and as yet there isn't an obvious sucessor. Halligan could be a possibility-but would his profile outside of the city come against him?

Smiley Burnett

hardybuck wrote: »

If it is a bye-election I think Paudie Coffey will walk it.

People in Waterford have mentioned that we might be better off with an independant-they are only powerful when the party in power holds a very narrow majority, and the swing in their vote could make a huge difference. However, in the next election this will not be the case. There will be a strong majority shared by probably FG and LAB.

Kenneally could make himself a hero if he made a stand on something Waterford related and went independant. For him being FF will have pros and cons come the next election. Certain people will turn on him for being FF, others will continue to vote for him as he will be the only serious FF candidate. However, I think he has his heart set on a junior ministry and will sit tight, and could scrape in again.

Much depends on the Labour candidates. Its unclear if O'Shea will go again, and as yet there isn't an obvious sucessor. Halligan could be a possibility-but would his profile outside of the city come against him?

Brendan Kenneally a junior minister????!!! In what Government???

hardybuck

Smiley Burnett wrote: »

Brendan Kenneally a junior minister????!!! In what Government???

Believe it or not he was hoping for one in the last cabinet reshuffle on the basis that Waterford deserved something after losing Cullen. FF won't get in next time and probably won't reshuffle in the near future so thats out of the question.

1971

hardybuck wrote: »

Believe it or not he was hoping for one in the last cabinet reshuffle on the basis that Waterford deserved something after losing Cullen. FF won't get in next time and probably won't reshuffle in the near future so thats out of the question.[/QUOTE

Brendan Kenneally a junior minister

The only reason that guy is hoping for a junior ministry is to increase his wages, this will have nothing to do with whats goin on in Waterford.this guy is only interested in money(highest expensives in Dial)he is about as USEFUL as a hole in a boat.

the people of waterford kicked him out in the last election, but the fool that replaced him was even greeder than he was, so what did the people of waterford DO?? we reelected him

What you sow you will reap

hardybuck

Sure thats pretty much stating the obvious really. Anyone who goes for a job promotion will be looking to have a pay bump to go with it.

I've not given any opinions on the chap, I'll keep them to myself, but I'm just giving a picture of current events.

Max Powers

Paudie Coffey id say,
Labour are a joke and incapable of making a decision which affects their base.
Green party have no interest in Waterford only to demote us and lastly FF, yeah right.
Indpendents, i cant see them being needed in next government formed by FG and probably the public service unions, i mean labour
so it looks like Paudie for me.

Trotter

Theres a lot to be said for having one independent in the 4 seats purely to make noise on our behalf without party constraints. Nothing like the public moans and groans of an independent giving out about the performance of the other 3 TDs to get things done.

If we'd elected an independent in the last GE, I wonder would we have our university now. I suspect we would.

Trotter

So there we go.. The Dáil has voted not to allow Waterford to have its full representation in the Dáil.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0929/politics.html

Its really frustrating. The least we should have is 4 voices to speak for us at a national level.

Partizan

There wont be a bye-election. The next election we will see will be the biggie.

Here's my prediction in a General Election:

Deasy FG (elected 1st count)
O'Shea Lab (elected 2nd count)
Coffey FG (Elected 3rd count)
Kenneally/A.N.Other FF (scrapes in)

---

the rest:
Cullinane SF - 3,500
Halligan Ind - 3,400
WP - 1,500
Conway Ind - 1,500
PBP - 800
Greens - 500

1971

hardybuck wrote: »

Sure thats pretty much stating the obvious really. Anyone who goes for a job promotion will be looking to have a pay bump to go with it.

====================================================================================================

the job that this guy is "to represent the people of waterford"the purpose of the job is to look after the people that voted for him.Waterford is his biggest concern not filling his pockete with extra cash

==================================================================================================

I've not given any opinions on the chap, I'll keep them to myself, but I'm just giving a picture of current events.

Why do you come to a FORUM if you are going to keep your opinion to your self.

hardybuck

1971 wrote: »

Why do you come to a FORUM if you are going to keep your opinion to your self.

Ok, well in my opinion you should mind your own business. I don't think my opinions on whether I think Kenneally is the best or the worst thing to happen to politics will be keeping you coming here.

1971

hardybuck wrote: »

Ok, well in my opinion you should mind your own business. I don't think my opinions on whether I think Kenneally is the best or the worst thing to happen to politics will be keeping you coming here.

sad!!

dayshah

Partizan wrote: »

There wont be a bye-election. The next election we will see will be the biggie.

Here's my prediction in a General Election:

Deasy FG (elected 1st count)
O'Shea Lab (elected 2nd count)
Coffey FG (Elected 3rd count)
Kenneally/A.N.Other FF (scrapes in)

---

the rest:
Cullinane SF - 3,500
Halligan Ind - 3,400
WP - 1,500
Conway Ind - 1,500
PBP - 800
Greens - 500

Isn't O'Shea stepping aside. At least its on the cards (he is near retirement age).

As for Labour not able to make a decision, they were right on the 35billion euro question two years ago.

Gardner

Guys,
There is some awful rubbish been sprouted on this topic. If a by election is called in the morning its between 3 candidates. Coffey, Halligan and Ryan.

What benefit does Waterford get out of electing any of those 3?
Little with Coffey, back bench in the opposition. Ryan again like Coffey will offer nothing other than a back bench spot! Halligan as an independent will be seen by the government as an opportunity to stay in power and add a bit of stability especially if Lenihan comes into power. Lenihan will want to see out the full term to get his profile up and he may want to broker a deal with Halligan.

Coffey will take the seat but it will be a waste of time electing him.

Now as for a general election. I think the next government will be a FG/LAB/IND government with Kenny or Bruton in charge with Lenihan in charge of the opposition. It doesn’t matter who Waterford elect because we will not have a minister or a junior minister! Deasy is unpopular within the party and Coffey hasn’t exactly been setting the world alight in the senate plus there is a lot more people ahead of him in line within FG and LAB.

This is what I think is needed for the people of Waterford. The independents need to come together as one. Agree on one candidate and stand him/her. I appeal to Cha O Neill, Mary Roche, Dick Roche, Davy Daniels and John Halligan of Waterford city council and the independents of the County Council, UNITE under the one banner and get what’s best for Waterford. The evidence is quiet clear that it works (Lowry, Gregory, Healy-Rae).

Prediction:
FF will get one seat here, it’s a banker. In the last general election FF received 23,025 1st pref votes between their 3 candidates. If FF are going to run 1 candidate then he is a banker. If the second is chosen to run, it will be Gary Wyse, he will prob poll 3-4k but still there first choice Kenneally will get in.

FG choose to run 3 candidates also in 2007 which achieved 13,552 1st pref votes. Deasy will hold the vote in west and will be elected on the 1st count. Coffey on the other hand will come very close to taking a seat.

Lab no matter who they run will take a seat.

So

Deasy FG
Kenneally FF
O Shea/ Ryan Lab
Coffey FG/ Halligan Ind

Deasy 10,000
O Shea/ Ryan 8000
Kenneally 6700
Coffey 6500
Halligan 5000
Wyse 3700
Cullinane 3200
Greens 900
Conway 800
PBP 600
Walsh WP 500
Others 500
Spoilt 400

That gives us a turnout of about 66-68%

The transfer of SF towards Halligan especially with the City vote could be very interesting. WP vote won’t matter as they have no candidate to run and if Walsh runs they will be lucky to poll above 500 especially when Halligan only got 1700 in last election and he was a good candidate.

So what way would I vote?? If FG guarantee John Deasy a Ministers spot then I would give him my number one, but if this is not the case which is 99% certain then I will vote Halligan no.1 as the independent candidate. Waterford have nothing to lose by giving him a seat because if the usual 4 get in then it’s going to be the same old story!

Sully

I think, regardless of who is leader of FG, that Coffey has a better chance at getting a front bench position then Deasy. Sadly, it seems that ship has long sailed. FG and Labour will get a seat with more ease then others, but I think Paudie has a greater chance of being elected along with Deasy.

Having an independent will make very little difference, and only when numbers are tight is there even a slight chance of it making a difference. As it stands, Independents are voting with the government that the people want out. FF have also shown that regardless, they wont give into an independent just to get a vote in their favour.

I wouldn't be banking my money on an Independent to do good for us, because they are effectively unheard of when a government is strong. They may hold some cards when its weak, but not a good gamble.

CantGetNoSleep

Did Healy Rae and Lowry not get good deals with FF for their constituencies in 2007?

Sully

CantGetNoSleep wrote: »

Did Healy Rae and Lowry not get good deals with FF for their constituencies in 2007?

As I said, it depends on the markup of the government and how desperate things are. As it stands, its either Lab/FF or FF/FG coalition.

dayshah

Sully wrote: »

I wouldn't be banking my money on an Independent to do good for us, because they are effectively unheard of when a government is strong. They may hold some cards when its weak, but not a good gamble.

If Halligan gets in he is likely to cooperate closely with Labour. He might even end up joining. But I certainly wouldn't vote for an independent just for the sake of it.

Max Powers

Gardner, with respect, i think Independents wont have any power in next government as FG Lab or going to have it sown up between them, no need for any independent support. I would vote FG as I think we have best chance of getting investment here if we elected 3 FGs in. I would rather FG get in granted by themselves without Lab as i think they are a joke, in that case they might need a few independents but it looks like in every poll that neither is big enough to go it alone.

dayshah

Max Powers wrote: »

Gardner, with respect, i think Independents wont have any power in next government as FG Lab or going to have it sown up between them, no need for any independent support. I would vote FG as I think we have best chance of getting investment here if we elected 3 FGs in. I would rather FG get in granted by themselves without Lab as i think they are a joke, in that case they might need a few independents but it looks like in every poll that neither is big enough to go it alone.

Have we ever elected more than 1 FG TD?

I'd say much of the FF vote in Waterford would swing Lab and independent rather than FG.

Typhoon.

Phil hogan in FG is bad news for Waterford..we wont see a thing if that man has anything to do with it

Sully

Typhoon. wrote: »

Phil hogan in FG is bad news for Waterford..we wont see a thing if that man has anything to do with it

Is this the nonsense spouted by the mayor there a while back? Or is there any further basis to that argument?

Bards

Sully wrote: »

Is this the nonsense spouted by the mayor there a while back? Or is there any further basis to that argument?

Hogan even said the M9 is a wste of money and wouldn't serve Kilkenny becuase it by-passes it

He is a Joke - He was also present at an IBEC Breakfast briefing a couple of years back and said he didn't favour the Extension of the boundary into Kilkenny, and instead insisted waterford CIty expand into Co. Waterford - we would end up with an oblong City (unsustainable Linear development) instead of a more normal radial and better orgasnised City - Is this what FG wants Waterford to become?

How can Waterford City (The Gateway City in the S.E) hope to compete with its peer cities if we are not given all the tools to fight the battles

It is a joke that the City Centre is hamstrung when it cannot expand naturally and you have one local authority doing every thing in their power to extract as much rates as they can get without taking into account proper planning, transport and land use.

Typhoon.

Sully wrote: »

Is this the nonsense spouted by the mayor there a while back? Or is there any further basis to that argument?

I must've missed that... what did the mayor say about him?

Sully

Bards wrote: »

Hogan even said the M9 is a wste of money and wouldn't serve Kilkenny becuase it by-passes it

He is a Joke - He was also present at an IBEC Breakfast briefing a couple of years back and said he didn't favour the Extension of the boundary into Kilkenny, and instead insisted waterford CIty expand into Co. Waterford - we would end up with an oblong City (unsustainable Linear development) instead of a more normal radial and better orgasnised City - Is this what FG wants Waterford to become?

How can Waterford City (The Gateway City in the S.E) hope to compete with its peer cities if we are not given all the tools to fight the battles

It is a joke that the City Centre is hamstrung when it cannot expand naturally and you have one local authority doing every thing in their power to extract as much rates as they can get without taking into account proper planning, transport and land use.

Thankfully, he isn't a minister for Waterford. If we have Paudie and John representing us in the Dail, then its double the voice and I am sure that FG will listen to them over someone from Kilkenny shouting for his own constituency.

Typhoon. wrote: »

I must've missed that... what did the mayor say about him?

It was around the time a town councilor in Tramore, also FG, called on Kenny to confirm the party intentions for University for WIT. Mary Roche had some choice words, somewhat back tracked later, along a similar line to yourself.

At the end of the day, we might as well not have any representation in the Dail if this is our mentality. Other surrounding constituencies will fight their corner and wont take any heed of us to get what their voters want. Regardless of party, this will happen.

Plus we have Sen. John Paul Phelan who would not be in the slightest negative to us and is regularly down these parts at various Fine Gael events and meetings. I cant see JP being negative for Waterford in the slightest. One would assume he will run for election to the Dail also.

Overall, one man who may have been favouring his voters over Waterford in a whole party is no reason not to vote your two FG candidates in Waterford. We are clearly a forgotten city in this government, and its time that when a new government gets in we elect two FG candidates to ensure a better and stronger voice for us and hopefully seeing Waterford being listened to in the cabinet.

We would be shooting ourselves in the foot to give FG a miss because of what a Kilkenny TD said!

Typhoon.

I agree... if paudie and deasey were elected and maybe a labour candidate they would have a fair bit of clout then

Bards

Just one more thing to add - It was a FG minister who moved the director of the IDA S.E to Cork in the hope that Wexford would get more jobs due to the fact (In his eyes) all the jobs were going to Waterford:eek:

Typhoon.

that and the university blocking are the two points spring to mind bards

fuzzy dunlop

Gardner wrote: »

Guys,
There is some awful rubbish been sprouted on this topic. If a by election is called in the morning its between 3 candidates. Coffey, Halligan and Ryan.

What benefit does Waterford get out of electing any of those 3?
Little with Coffey, back bench in the opposition. Ryan again like Coffey will offer nothing other than a back bench spot! Halligan as an independent will be seen by the government as an opportunity to stay in power and add a bit of stability especially if Lenihan comes into power. Lenihan will want to see out the full term to get his profile up and he may want to broker a deal with Halligan.

Coffey will take the seat but it will be a waste of time electing him.

Now as for a general election. I think the next government will be a FG/LAB/IND government with Kenny or Bruton in charge with Lenihan in charge of the opposition. It doesn’t matter who Waterford elect because we will not have a minister or a junior minister! Deasy is unpopular within the party and Coffey hasn’t exactly been setting the world alight in the senate plus there is a lot more people ahead of him in line within FG and LAB.

This is what I think is needed for the people of Waterford. The independents need to come together as one. Agree on one candidate and stand him/her. I appeal to Cha O Neill, Mary Roche, Dick Roche, Davy Daniels and John Halligan of Waterford city council and the independents of the County Council, UNITE under the one banner and get what’s best for Waterford. The evidence is quiet clear that it works (Lowry, Gregory, Healy-Rae).

Prediction:
FF will get one seat here, it’s a banker. In the last general election FF received 23,025 1st pref votes between their 3 candidates. If FF are going to run 1 candidate then he is a banker. If the second is chosen to run, it will be Gary Wyse, he will prob poll 3-4k but still there first choice Kenneally will get in.

FG choose to run 3 candidates also in 2007 which achieved 13,552 1st pref votes. Deasy will hold the vote in west and will be elected on the 1st count. Coffey on the other hand will come very close to taking a seat.

Lab no matter who they run will take a seat.

So

Deasy FG
Kenneally FF
O Shea/ Ryan Lab
Coffey FG/ Halligan Ind

Deasy 10,000
O Shea/ Ryan 8000
Kenneally 6700
Coffey 6500
Halligan 5000
Wyse 3700
Cullinane 3200
Greens 900
Conway 800
PBP 600
Walsh WP 500
Others 500
Spoilt 400

That gives us a turnout of about 66-68%

The transfer of SF towards Halligan especially with the City vote could be very interesting. WP vote won’t matter as they have no candidate to run and if Walsh runs they will be lucky to poll above 500 especially when Halligan only got 1700 in last election and he was a good candidate.

So what way would I vote?? If FG guarantee John Deasy a Ministers spot then I would give him my number one, but if this is not the case which is 99% certain then I will vote Halligan no.1 as the independent candidate. Waterford have nothing to lose by giving him a seat because if the usual 4 get in then it’s going to be the same old story!

Good Assessment. Nothing short of a guarantee written in blood that Coffey or Deasy will be made a senior minister will warrent a vote for Fine Gael.But the fact is Coffey and Deasy are going nowhere.Coffey is unheard of outside of Waterford and his acheivements for Waterford consist of writing a letter to the local newspapers every couple of weeks with straw man stories.

Fine Gael have huge problems at the moment and Enda Kenny or any other FG leader can't upset the apple cart by giving a johnny come lately like Paudie Coffey a cabinet position.Ironically electing an Independent will make the the three main parties take us more serious and might make them think that they need to groom someone from Waterford for a long term senior position.