Waterford Election 2011

Partizan

PTH2009 wrote: »

i wonder will John Halligan get in. Hes fourth in the boards election so hopefully he will be in the top 4 come election night

He will get a big vote in the city but as soon as you go past the city limits he could be undone. I reckon he will poll in the region of 3500-4000 but he needs another 1500-2000 from the County to stand a realistic chance. He has a serious disadvantage in that Cullinane and Ryan have party machines and elected representatives in the county to garner the much needed votes.

But in saying that, he might sneak in with transfers. He needs to stay ahead of Cullinane. Its a dog fight for the last seat between Ryan, Cullinane and Halligan. 1 & 2 will be FG, Kenneally will take the 3rd.

nkay1985

Partizan wrote: »

He will get a big vote in the city but as soon as you go past the city limits he could be undone. I reckon he will poll in the region of 3500-4000 but he needs another 1500-2000 from the County to stand a realistic chance. He has a serious disadvantage in that Cullinane and Ryan have party machines and elected representatives in the county to garner the much needed votes.

But in saying that, he might sneak in with transfers. He needs to stay ahead of Cullinane. Its a dog fight for the last seat between Ryan, Cullinane and Halligan. 1 & 2 will be FG, Kenneally will take the 3rd.

That sounds about right. He could be transfer-friendly from the other independents and Joe Tobin but needs to be in striking distance. If, as expected, either Cullinane or Halligan are the last to be eliminated, it'll be very interesting to see how many of their votes transfer and where they transfer to. Ryan might be far enough ahead if Conway can get a decent vote and transfer a large percentage to him.

The matter of county party machines is huge though. To already have an organisation in those areas makes a campaign possible, even in the short time frame this election is being conducted. Without that, it's much more difficult but I presume Halligan will concentrate on Tramore and other high-population areas.

Deise Tom

Trotter wrote: »

Bertie was great on TV. I'd prefer a fella who isnt great on TV but who runs a team of people who'll with any luck, try not to screw 90% of the population for the benefit of the 10% that make up those with serious money, or blind loyalty to an organisation that realistically does them no favours.

I suspect theres a few FF devotees who were waiting for the local TD to jump in the door and save the day all the way to the point where they drove them to the airport and waved their son/daughter off to Australia/Canada/England... but they never arrived.

When will some people realise that we dont want Bertie mark II who incidentally called the shots on the debates in 2007 too, yet the media never ganged up on him for that.

Enda will do just fine.. compared to the disgusting thought of another term of FF.

Would blame Charlie McCreavy far more than Bertie for the mess the country is in.

fricatus

Partizan wrote: »

Its a dog fight for the last seat between Ryan, Cullinane and Halligan. 1 & 2 will be FG, Kenneally will take the 3rd.

A loss of a seat for Labour in a fairly left-leaning constituency, with the Gilmore Gale blowing, and "Gilmore for Taoiseach" posters up, would be an absolute disaster for them IMO.

I can see it happening though... I'll go out on a limb now and predict Deasy, Coffey, Cullinane and Halligan.

As for Kenneally, even if he is in the shake-up, I still can't see him taking the third seat, but I suppose you can never underestimate the "he fikshed de rhoooad" vote :rolleyes:

Partizan

fricatus wrote: »

A loss of a seat for Labour in a fairly left-leaning constituency, with the Gilmore Gale blowing, and "Gilmore for Taoiseach" posters up, would be an absolute disaster for them IMO.

I can see it happening though... I'll go out on a limb now and predict Deasy, Coffey, Cullinane and Halligan.

As for Kenneally, even if he is in the shake-up, I still can't see him taking the third seat, but I suppose you can never underestimate the "he fikshed de rhoooad" vote :rolleyes:

tbh I cannot see it happening. FF have had Dail representation in Waterford since 1927 (with 2 seats) and I cannot see it any different now. Waterford is a conservative constituency as a whole and in 2007, FF got 2 and half times the quota. I cannot see them losing that. Their vote will be enough to see them through despite being transfer repellent.

Labour will hold the seat for the simple reason that they have a well oiled county wide machine which will ensure they get the vote out and second the transfers. Ditto for Cullinane. SF will not be so transfer toxic like they have previously been and will pick up transfers from Labour, Halligan and the WP.

Halligan may get a decent vote in Tramore, a few hundred votes but with Joe Conway running there, that will seriously dent his chances not to mention that Tramore has a solid Labour & FG vote. As I said, he needs to be ahead of Cullinane and get a lot of transfers from the WP. This depends on Joe Tobin getting a good vote and I predict he will, around the 2,000 range. What is killing Halligan just like the WP is the county. He needs, 1) a party machine and 2) organisation outside the city. To stand a decent chance he needs 5,500-6,000 1st preference votes.

decies

Election alert the fianna fail leader is heading to Waterford tomorrow , I trust he will get a traditional decies welcome ( all civil defence river patrol leave cancelled)

deisemum

decies wrote: »

Election alert the fianna fail leader is heading to Waterford tomorrow , I trust he will get a traditional decies welcome ( all civil defence river patrol leave cancelled)

Do you know where he'll be and at what time?

decies

deisemum wrote: »

Do you know where he'll be and at what time?

Don't know am afraid to tell you mum if I find out :-0

deisemum

decies wrote: »

Don't know am afraid to tell you mum if I find out :-0

Could be an opportunity to question Kenneally on his views of drug dealers and what he'd do if anything to deal with them when they're terrorising people :D:D

Trotter

Has anyone seen the latest boards vote for our constituency? They've put the transfers through and the results are surprising!

AdMMM

Results are waaaay out.

nkay1985

Yeah they seem a bit off alright. But, looking at the transfers, percentage-wise they're not too far off what I'd be expecting. The first preferences are where the difference are. Cullinane will probably poll 4% or so less and Kenneally will poll with another 4%-6%. Interesting to see it though.

Deise Tom

Anyone know anything about the Justin guy that was on with Ian Noctor on WLR was it yesterday or the day before. Came across to me anyway as a person that could talk the walk but can he walk the walk.

Ri na hEireann

Deise Tom wrote: »

Would blame Charlie McCreavy far more than Bertie for the mess the country is in.

Why's that?

Sully

Enda Kenny has reaffirmed his partys commitment to delivering a University for the South East including Waterford, Carlow and Wexford. He stated that the hunt report was just that - a report - and that he and his party was still committed to the university status for the South East and will trigger the process to allow for this to happen if his party are elected into the next government. He was speaking during his visit to Waterford today.

Similarly, one of the WIT YFG members got a motion passed in a WIT Students Union Class Rep Council that the student body reject the hunt reports recommendation in terms of mergers including WIT and CIT. It wasn't the case previously.

As for the votes - there are a lot of SF votes on the forum I guess, but the results are not in the least bit accurate. The only thing is fairly certain is two front seats are FG. Rest is to hard to call for.

I believe there has been a fair bit of dodgy voting going on in the poll on Boards, including Waterford. Just goes to show it cant be that accurate - age isn't taken into consideration and whats to say the person is on the register in the first place? Just not a great sample to take but overall not a bad idea.

howdo tawdy

fricatus wrote: »

Lads, is Mary Roche running this time around? I haven't seen her name come up yet.

nah she is too busy stopping me from drinking cans on the quay while she ****es on about the tall ships!

Probably Waterford worst mayor in years! She is an embarrassment!!

deisemum

howdo tawdy wrote: »

nah she is too busy stopping me from drinking cans on the quay while she ****es on about the tall ships!

Probably Waterford worst mayor in years! She is an embarrassment!!

I agree with you, she's a case in point of an empty vessel that makes most noise.

When is her term up?

AdMMM

Sully wrote: »

Enda Kenny has reaffirmed his partys commitment to delivering a University for the South East including Waterford, Carlow and Wexford. He stated that the hunt report was just that - a report - and that he and his party was still committed to the university status for the South East and will trigger the process to allow for this to happen if his party are elected into the next government. He was speaking during his visit to Waterford today.

Similarly, one of the WIT YFG members got a motion passed in a WIT Students Union Class Rep Council that the student body reject the hunt reports recommendation in terms of mergers including WIT and CIT. It wasn't the case previously.

As for the votes - there are a lot of SF votes on the forum I guess, but the results are not in the least bit accurate. The only thing is fairly certain is two front seats are FG. Rest is to hard to call for.

I believe there has been a fair bit of dodgy voting going on in the poll on Boards, including Waterford. Just goes to show it cant be that accurate - age isn't taken into consideration and whats to say the person is on the register in the first place? Just not a great sample to take but overall not a bad idea.

Enda has changed his stance on this far too often! Nice little sound bite that he gets to use across constituencies too. I believe that he recently said that he'd re-examine the case but come election time it changes to this! Another case of I'll believe it when I see it!

Gardner

Sully wrote: »

Enda Kenny has reaffirmed his partys commitment to delivering a University for the South East including Waterford, Carlow and Wexford. He stated that the hunt report was just that - a report - and that he and his party was still committed to the university status for the South East and will trigger the process to allow for this to happen if his party are elected into the next government. He was speaking during his visit to Waterford today.

Similarly, one of the WIT YFG members got a motion passed in a WIT Students Union Class Rep Council that the student body reject the hunt reports recommendation in terms of mergers including WIT and CIT. It wasn't the case previously.

As for the votes - there are a lot of SF votes on the forum I guess, but the results are not in the least bit accurate. The only thing is fairly certain is two front seats are FG. Rest is to hard to call for.

I believe there has been a fair bit of dodgy voting going on in the poll on Boards, including Waterford. Just goes to show it cant be that accurate - age isn't taken into consideration and whats to say the person is on the register in the first place? Just not a great sample to take but overall not a bad idea.

there will be no University in WATERFORD under FG

Your like that other spanner on upthebog, who was telling everyone to vote Martin Cullen because he was going to deliver University to WATERFORD.

(not calling you a spanner but the other clown, just always don’t believe parties what your preaching sully, it will come back and bite you in the ass)

Sully

One can only comment on what you will be reading in next weeks papers, and whats on the policy doc!

He has always said the same thing repeatedly, even former education spokesperson Brian Hayes. One would hope that not all politicians are like FF who promise the world and give nothing.

Psychedelic

Does anyone know what John Halligan stands for? I don't have a clue anyway. I just got his flyer in the door and there is no mention of any policies or what he will do if he gets elected. Just crap about being the people's mayor, got the most votes in local elections, he will fight for Waterford etc.

deisemum wrote: »

I agree with you, she's a case in point of an empty vessel that makes most noise.

When is her term up?

I think around April or May.

Deise Tom

Sully wrote: »

Enda Kenny has reaffirmed his partys commitment to delivering a University for the South East including Waterford, Carlow and Wexford. He stated that the hunt report was just that - a report - and that he and his party was still committed to the university status for the South East and will trigger the process to allow for this to happen if his party are elected into the next government. He was speaking during his visit to Waterford today.

Similarly, one of the WIT YFG members got a motion passed in a WIT Students Union Class Rep Council that the student body reject the hunt reports recommendation in terms of mergers including WIT and CIT. It wasn't the case previously.

As for the votes - there are a lot of SF votes on the forum I guess, but the results are not in the least bit accurate. The only thing is fairly certain is two front seats are FG. Rest is to hard to call for.

I believe there has been a fair bit of dodgy voting going on in the poll on Boards, including Waterford. Just goes to show it cant be that accurate - age isn't taken into consideration and whats to say the person is on the register in the first place? Just not a great sample to take but overall not a bad idea.

If he does deliever another university, is it one for Waterford or for the South East. If it is for the South East, i would put money on it been located in Carlow.

Deise Tom

Sully wrote: »

I believe there has been a fair bit of dodgy voting going on in the poll on Boards, including Waterford. Just goes to show it cant be that accurate - age isn't taken into consideration and whats to say the person is on the register in the first place? Just not a great sample to take but overall not a bad idea.

That poll should be taken with a pinch of salt. How many people that will be voting in the election will have heard of board.ie or be a member of it.

dlofnep

Did Enda by any chance state how he was going to fund WIT becoming a university? It's well and good to make promises, but he needs to inform the electorate how such ventures are going to be funded. Also, what portion of these 30,000 public sector redundancies are going to affect the educational departments? There is already a staff-freeze in place and a sizable portion of the staff in WIT are not qualified to lecture, but yet - we are to believe that WIT can become a university through wishful thinking?

I fully support it's university status, but I don't see it being anything other than a hollow promise at the moment.

Also - the date-based mortage relief for example is a horrific idea, as if he is intending to offer relief - it should be surely based on whether or not an individual has the ability to pay, rather than the date that they purchased their property. Fine Gael need to seriously review this when making statements like "protecting the most vulerable in society".

Sully

Deise Tom wrote: »

If he does deliever another university, is it one for Waterford or for the South East. If it is for the South East, i would put money on it been located in Carlow.

Why Carlow?

Deise Tom wrote: »

That poll should be taken with a pinch of salt. How many people that will be voting in the election will have heard of board.ie or be a member of it.

I'm commenting on the Boards poll results alone. There are many reasons why the poll isn't accurate in terms of sampling. Its for fun.

But those who did register to vote, some abused the vote.

Sully

dlofnep wrote: »

Did Enda by any chance state how he was going to fund WIT becoming a university? It's well and good to make promises, but he needs to inform the electorate how such ventures are going to be funded. Also, what portion of these 30,000 public sector redundancies are going to affect the educational departments? There is already a staff-freeze in place and a sizable portion of the staff in WIT are not qualified to lecture, but yet - we are to believe that WIT can become a university through wishful thinking?

I fully support it's university status, but I don't see it being anything other than a hollow promise at the moment.

Don't have specifics on Uni plan, but ill look into it. It was more inline with the overall campaign thats been done for Uni status for SE and in their policy document.

Re: public service reform. Thats not being aimed at front line services, but much higher up in the public sector where there is an incredible amount of waste, duplication and obscene wages. Some parties harp on about capping wages and leaving it at that, but to be fair you might as well cut out the waste and rot. Public service isn't efficient in a lot of places, it needs sorting.

FG have stated on numerous occasions front line workers will not be effected.

dlofnep

Oh, I totally agree with waste in the public sector, you're preaching to the preached dude - But let's be honest, 30,000 jobs will affect frontline services. Let's be honest about it. Also - It might be worth noting the student nursing work experience module. This is going to be a huge issue for the nurses, and unless their pay is restored - I think it's going to reduce the number of nurses training, and will actually cause many to quit their course. This will directly impact frontline services. Fine Gael have already gone on record stating that they cannot gaurentee a reversal in this pay cut.

RE: University status, thanks - But I doubt you'll get a concrete outline of how it will be funded. If you can provide one, I'd be very impressed.

dlofnep

Also - What is your take on the proposed mortgage relief fund Sully - Do you think it's fair to offer relief to those because of the time-frame at which they purchased their property, or do you not think it would be more fair to offer relief based on how much financial strain a family has?

Deise Tom

dlofnep wrote: »

Did Enda by any chance state how he was going to fund WIT becoming a university? It's well and good to make promises, but he needs to inform the electorate how such ventures are going to be funded.

Thats something that i would also love to know. While we all know that Fianna Fail have their problems some people are very blind to what the opposition are saying. Some are sucked in by what they say right, left and centre. Its easy to say what they say in opposition but when they come into power they will realise that things are much different. Enda and Eamon will promise people Sun, Moon and Stars in oposition and especially in the run up to an election, but people never ask how they will fund these promises.

Deise Tom

Sully wrote: »

Why Carlow?

If they do give one, and i doubt they will, i feel that it will be a south east university and not a Waterford one. If a South East one was given people like Phil Hogan who will be at the cabinet table will be looking for it in his constituency. If Labour are with FG in Power, Brendan Howlin who could be a minister or at least a junior one will also be looking for it to he in his area. Both i am sure would be see as having a much more say than what John Deady or Paudie Coffey will have.