Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Waterford Election 2011
Comments
-
Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators, Regional South East Moderators Posts: 24,056 Mod ✭✭✭✭
Join Date:Posts: 21860
fuzzy dunlop wrote: »Good Assessment. Nothing short of a guarantee written in blood that Coffey or Deasy will be made a senior minister will warrent a vote for Fine Gael.But the fact is Coffey and Deasy are going nowhere.Coffey is unheard of outside of Waterford and his acheivements for Waterford consist of writing a letter to the local newspapers every couple of weeks with straw man stories.
Fine Gael have huge problems at the moment and Enda Kenny or any other FG leader can't upset the apple cart by giving a johnny come lately like Paudie Coffey a cabinet position.Ironically electing an Independent will make the the three main parties take us more serious and might make them think that they need to groom someone from Waterford for a long term senior position.
A guarantee you wont get. From any party. Deasy seems to have blown his chance, at the very least under Kenny, and Paudie is widely recognised within the party and outside of the party as being a person to bring a ministerial position for Waterford. But who knows, no party will guarantee anyone. Most of FG would assume someone in Waterford will get a ministerial position, maybe not immediately, so leadership debate or not it wont make any difference bar "Ill vote for you, if".
As for not being known - it depends where you go. He would probably be more known in parts of the county then the city. His articles to the paper, which a lot of people think is a good thing (from any politician), would be a drop in the ocean as he is fairly well active on the ground. Iv heard many a story from people who went to him with an issue and he got it sorted. On the ground, in a lot of places, Paudie is well known and well liked. Recongised by national media also.
He is currently a senator - not a huge amount a senator can bring to the city.
Independents are only useful, as I have said many times, when numbers are tight. There is not a chance the people of Waterford will look moreso at an independent (look at Joe Conway, running in the byelection and virtually unheard of) over a party. They will vote either Labour or FG candidates in as they have a much better chance of securing something for Waterford. Halligan might be popular in the city, in local elections, but he has to secure the county and its a big area. Likewise, I cant see a new party needing much support. Labour and FG/FF will do it together.0 -
I can honestly say there is no one who would inspire me with confidence!
Each is a bad as the last.
I can only but hope that Mr Tayto will run in our constituency.
Seriously FF haven’t a hope in a general election, in the local elections only one candidate got in and that was on the 8th or 9th count, I reckon they might of only left him in cos they felt sorry for him think he got in the region for 350 votes and he was the star performer???
Unless FF have a huge support in the county and run a single candidate two the most they haven’t a prayer...and rightly so0 -
A guarantee you wont get. From any party. Deasy seems to have blown his chance, at the very least under Kenny, and Paudie is widely recognised within the party and outside of the party as being a person to bring a ministerial position for Waterford. But who knows, no party will guarantee anyone. Most of FG would assume someone in Waterford will get a ministerial position, maybe not immediately, so leadership debate or not it wont make any difference bar "Ill vote for you, if".
As for not being known - it depends where you go. He would probably be more known in parts of the county then the city. His articles to the paper, which a lot of people think is a good thing (from any politician), would be a drop in the ocean as he is fairly well active on the ground. Iv heard many a story from people who went to him with an issue and he got it sorted. On the ground, in a lot of places, Paudie is well known and well liked. Recongised by national media also.
He is currently a senator - not a huge amount a senator can bring to the city.
Independents are only useful, as I have said many times, when numbers are tight. There is not a chance the people of Waterford will look moreso at an independent (look at Joe Conway, running in the byelection and virtually unheard of) over a party. They will vote either Labour or FG candidates in as they have a much better chance of securing something for Waterford. Halligan might be popular in the city, in local elections, but he has to secure the county and its a big area. Likewise, I cant see a new party needing much support. Labour and FG/FF will do it together.
There is absolutely no recognition or assumption within FG that Waterford is likely to get a cabinet position. There is no objective evidence whatsoever that this is the case.
Paudie Coffey is an unknown outside of Waterford. He’s only known in Waterford because he is a non-elected political appointee who sends badly written “straw man” letters into the paper. Try writing a letter into any of the papers. Anyone can do it. His letters are just copy and paste jobs from the Fine Gael website. Outside of this he has no media presence. Contrast this with Dan Boyle who is on Television almost once a week. If FG had any intent for Coffey he would be some sort of spokesman but he isn’t. As for Coffey getting things sorted out for people…so what. We are talking about a political strategy not payment for shoneenism.
Anything can happen at the next election. The numbers may be tight an independent may be needed. But that is not the point. An independent will send the message to the big parties that the Waterford vote will not be cheap and it will be another serious constituency like Dublin South East. This is essentially what happened in the eighties. We gave one of the seats to a candidate that was outside the main three and ended up with a senior cabinet minister for a decade.
0 -
Count me in! Vote for Coffee everyone!! Freshly ground of course none of that instant chit.0
-
FACT--some of the biggest supporters of a University in Waterford are Kilkenny politicians.0
-
Advertisement
-
fuzzy dunlop wrote: »There is absolutely no recognition or assumption within FG that Waterford is likely to get a cabinet position. There is no objective evidence whatsoever that this is the case.
Paudie Coffey is an unknown outside of Waterford. He’s only known in Waterford because he is a non-elected political appointee who sends badly written “straw man” letters into the paper. Try writing a letter into any of the papers. Anyone can do it. His letters are just copy and paste jobs from the Fine Gael website. Outside of this he has no media presence. Contrast this with Dan Boyle who is on Television almost once a week. If FG had any intent for Coffey he would be some sort of spokesman but he isn’t. As for Coffey getting things sorted out for people…so what. We are talking about a political strategy not payment for shoneenism.
Anything can happen at the next election. The numbers may be tight an independent may be needed. But that is not the point. An independent will send the message to the big parties that the Waterford vote will not be cheap and it will be another serious constituency like Dublin South East. This is essentially what happened in the eighties. We gave one of the seats to a candidate that was outside the main three and ended up with a senior cabinet minister for a decade.
Practically half the constuencies in Ireland returned an Independent TD in 2002 and what good did it do them?? ZILCH, ZERO, NADA, NOTHING!!
We ended up with no opposition and a Govt that ramped up public spending on the back of a property bubble!
The Ind TDs are some of the biggest gombeens in the dail!!0 -
Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators, Regional South East Moderators Posts: 24,056 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Join Date:Posts: 21860
fuzzy dunlop wrote: »There is absolutely no recognition or assumption within FG that Waterford is likely to get a cabinet position. There is no objective evidence whatsoever that this is the case.
When Kenny was in one of his recent WIT visits, he did an interview with WLRFM and they put the question to him about Coffey and Deasy. Based on that alone, Coffey has a higher chance under Kenny. Anyone with a bit of political knowledge, never mind internal private talks, would know that he is widely recognized as being a very good candidate, popular and well liked. That he would be most likely to be considered down this area. Even national media think he will secure a seat here.Paudie Coffey is an unknown outside of Waterford. He’s only known in Waterford because he is a non-elected political appointee who sends badly written “straw man” letters into the paper. Try writing a letter into any of the papers. Anyone can do it. His letters are just copy and paste jobs from the Fine Gael website. Outside of this he has no media presence. Contrast this with Dan Boyle who is on Television almost once a week. If FG had any intent for Coffey he would be some sort of spokesman but he isn’t. As for Coffey getting things sorted out for people…so what. We are talking about a political strategy not payment for shoneenism.
Firstly, you seem to completely ignore my previous post. A lot of elected and "non-elected" politicians write to the media as letters. Its a way of communicating with the people and many people, would you believe, recognize the name through this and agree with statements etc made. There his own releases, created by himself. They appear on Facebook, Twitter and the Fine Gael website (hence, you see them there). Other politicians, including well liked and popular elected TDs, do this. From all sides of politics. Its a common way of communicating with the people including regular newsletters dropped door to door. You may not agree, but your one voter out of thousands. Nobody claims these letters are printed only for them. I have no idea what world you are living in. PS. Paudie is more known in the county then the city. Its improving due to his constant being out there, meeting the people, knocking on doors etc. over the last number of months. He isn't even from the city, yet apparently he is only known here? What "non elected politican" who seems to just write "straw man letters" according to you, could possibly be well known in the city if he has absolutely no recognition, his letters are daft, and he was never elected?!?
Secondly, how many senators are well known and easily get elected in a general election, but don't use the Dan Boyle type of politics? Dan, and some others, use twitter regularly to post controversial statements. The media love him, because he will comment on pretty much anything. He is outspoken and a media whore. He has no guarantee of getting elected in the next government. He is a face well known around Ireland only because of that. Similarly, but to a lesser extinct, Deasy is. If he goes against the party line, its big news for the media.Anything can happen at the next election. The numbers may be tight an independent may be needed. But that is not the point. An independent will send the message to the big parties that the Waterford vote will not be cheap and it will be another serious constituency like Dublin South East. This is essentially what happened in the eighties. We gave one of the seats to a candidate that was outside the main three and ended up with a senior cabinet minister for a decade.
So, eh, we elected independents only. Then a party gets the full numbers to secure a government without Joe Bloggs and Billy Noshow in Waterford. They can shout all they like and demand this that and the other - but there not part of the cabinet. There in opposition. In one ear, out the other.
Or.. We elected Paudie and John. Or some Labour candidate. They support the upgrade. They can represent us in the Dail, speak with the party leader, call on the party to act on its policy and try secure a front bench position. They have a lot more power then Joe Bloggs and Billy Noshow who were not needed to form a government.
I see what you are thinking and you seem to be suggesting you have no faith in the party politics for Waterford. Its a big gamble to take and as it stands, the odds of what you think will happen are very low. Waterford would be much better to elect a candidate from a party with a strong chance of getting our voice heard either in the back benches or the front benches. Party power is what we needed. Not one man.
Independents at the moment are whats holding this country up. They refuse to let FF drop and vote with them on items such as the budget, the banks, and the by-elections. To the disgust of many of the electorate. Perhaps they are getting well looked after for it - but there is absolutely no guarantee that an independent TD in Waterford, if elected, could secure a better deal for Waterford. None. FF wont give us University because they fear the backlash from other Universities and ITs. Plus they care little for us. FG have already said they will. Labour, I think, have a very similar policy. The only reason FF will be in the next government is if Labour do a deal with them.0 -
Well Brendan Kenneally better not rely on his former neighbours in Viewmount to vote for him. His name is mud round here. All he's interested in is money. I wont print what I think of him and none of it is good.0
-
When Kenny was in one of his recent WIT visits, he did an interview with WLRFM and they put the question to him about Coffey and Deasy. Based on that alone, Coffey has a higher chance under Kenny. Anyone with a bit of political knowledge, never mind internal private talks, would know that he is widely recognized as being a very good candidate, popular and well liked. That he would be most likely to be considered down this area. Even national media think he will secure a seat here.
Shock Horror! Visiting opposition leader tells local electorate what he thinks they want to hear! This is absolutely meaningless unless it’s consistently repeated in a national forum but it isn’t. In fact Kenny or FG have never mentioned Coffey even once as a prospect for service in the cabinet. Anyone with bit of political knowledge will know that Paudie Coffey is benefiting from disillusionment with the Government rather than his own ability. Paudie Coffey’s good fortune is that he is not FF not because he is Paudie Coffey.Firstly, you seem to completely ignore my previous post. A lot of elected and "non-elected" politicians write to the media as letters. Its a way of communicating with the people and many people, would you believe, recognize the name through this and agree with statements etc made. There his own releases, created by himself. They appear on Facebook, Twitter and the Fine Gael website (hence, you see them there). Other politicians, including well liked and popular elected TDs, do this. From all sides of politics. Its a common way of communicating with the people including regular newsletters dropped door to door. You may not agree, but your one voter out of thousands. Nobody claims these letters are printed only for them. I have no idea what world you are living in.
I’ll tell you what world I’m living in. It’s called reality and you need a reality check if you think Paudie Coffey is going to get a cabinet position in the next government. Btw I didn’t ignore your post! You said Coffey was widely recognised but the fact is that he is an unknown outside Waterford. Also Enda Kenny is a lame duck leader and it will be virtually impossible for him to appoint Coffey ahead of around thirty other Fine Gael veterans with a national profile which Coffey hasn’t got and who have won seats for a second third or fourth time. You also seem to be intentionally missing the point. Coffey writing to the local Newspaper is nothing. Any crank can do this. He is preaching to the converted regurgitating what we already know just so he can raise his profile in the constituency he is running in. And contrary to what you said they are not his own releases they are re-release of positions put forward by FG front benchers usually in the Irish Times and a year ahead of Paudie Coffey.So, eh, we elected independents only. Then a party gets the full numbers to secure a government without Joe Bloggs and Billy Noshow in Waterford. They can shout all they like and demand this that and the other - but there not part of the cabinet. There in opposition. In one ear, out the other.
I never said elect Independents only. I said elect one Independent outside the three main parties which are indistinguishable when it comes to ideology. It sends the message that Waterford is playing hardball. Also Paudie Coffey is Joe Bloggs or is that Billy Nobody?If a party does get the full numbers and Paudie is there it reduces the influence of each politician in that party. This is a mathematical fact. It is also made worse that he is a newcomer who will be expected to serve his time on the back benches.
You really haven’t a clue how Irish parliamentary politics works. Paudie Coffey won’t be in cabinet he will be a backbencher. One of about 70. This will mean he will be in no position to make demands, as he will not be needed if he leaves the party whip, which he won’t. But all this is academic because it’s a general election that might not happen for 18 months. The next game for us is a bye election with an opportunity of a lifetime to hold a government by the balls. This is another mathematical fact.Or.. We elected Paudie and John. Or some Labour candidate. They support the upgrade. They can represent us in the Dail, speak with the party leader, call on the party to act on its policy and try secure a front bench position. They have a lot more power then Joe Bloggs and Billy Noshow who were not needed to form a government.
This is 2010 and there is only three Independents in the Dáil supporting the government. If Tony Gregory could get 100 million in 1982 out of the government for his constituency we can push a few issues over the line at a tenth of the price in real terms. Jackie Healy Ray whether you like him or not has had the confidence of his constituency for years as has Michael Lowry.Smiley Burnett wrote: »Practically half the constuencies in Ireland returned an Independent TD in 2002 and what good did it do them?? ZILCH, ZERO, NADA, NOTHING!!
We ended up with no opposition and a Govt that ramped up public spending on the back of a property bubble!
The Ind TDs are some of the biggest gombeens in the dail!!0 -
fuzzy dunlop wrote: »Shock Horror! Visiting opposition leader tells local electorate what he thinks they want to hear! This is absolutely meaningless unless it’s consistently repeated in a national forum but it isn’t. In fact Kenny or FG have never mentioned Coffey even once as a prospect for service in the cabinet. Anyone with bit of political knowledge will know that Paudie Coffey is benefiting from disillusionment with the Government rather than his own ability. Paudie Coffey’s good fortune is that he is not FF not because he is Paudie Coffey.
I’ll tell you what world I’m living in. It’s called reality and you need a reality check if you think Paudie Coffey is going to get a cabinet position in the next government. Btw I didn’t ignore your post! You said Coffey was widely recognised but the fact is that he is an unknown outside Waterford. Also Enda Kenny is a lame duck leader and it will be virtually impossible for him to appoint Coffey ahead of around thirty other Fine Gael veterans with a national profile which Coffey hasn’t got and who have won seats for a second third or fourth time. You also seem to be intentionally missing the point. Coffey writing to the local Newspaper is nothing. Any crank can do this. He is preaching to the converted regurgitating what we already know just so he can raise his profile in the constituency he is running in. And contrary to what you said they are not his own releases they are re-release of positions put forward by FG front benchers usually in the Irish Times and a year ahead of Paudie Coffey.
I never said elect Independents only. I said elect one Independent outside the three main parties which are indistinguishable when it comes to ideology. It sends the message that Waterford is playing hardball. Also Paudie Coffey is Joe Bloggs or is that Billy Nobody?If a party does get the full numbers and Paudie is there it reduces the influence of each politician in that party. This is a mathematical fact. It is also made worse that he is a newcomer who will be expected to serve his time on the back benches.
You really haven’t a clue how Irish parliamentary politics works. Paudie Coffey won’t be in cabinet he will be a backbencher. One of about 70. This will mean he will be in no position to make demands, as he will not be needed if he leaves the party whip, which he won’t. But all this is academic because it’s a general election that might not happen for 18 months. The next game for us is a bye election with an opportunity of a lifetime to hold a government by the balls. This is another mathematical fact.
This is 2010 and there is only three Independents in the Dáil supporting the government. If Tony Gregory could get 100 million in 1982 out of the government for his constituency we can push a few issues over the line at a tenth of the price in real terms. Jackie Healy Ray whether you like him or not has had the confidence of his constituency for years as has Michael Lowry.
exactly - just look what FG did to George Lee
what's needed is a brand new Political Party - not made up of exisitng Political hacks- but young dynamic people with vision and the guts to stand up to the unions and do what is in the best interests of Ireland0 -
Advertisement
-
fuzzy dunlop wrote: »Shock Horror! Visiting opposition leader tells local electorate what he thinks they want to hear! This is absolutely meaningless unless it’s consistently repeated in a national forum but it isn’t. In fact Kenny or FG have never mentioned Coffey even once as a prospect for service in the cabinet. Anyone with bit of political knowledge will know that Paudie Coffey is benefiting from disillusionment with the Government rather than his own ability. Paudie Coffey’s good fortune is that he is not FF not because he is Paudie Coffey.
I’ll tell you what world I’m living in. It’s called reality and you need a reality check if you think Paudie Coffey is going to get a cabinet position in the next government. Btw I didn’t ignore your post! You said Coffey was widely recognised but the fact is that he is an unknown outside Waterford. Also Enda Kenny is a lame duck leader and it will be virtually impossible for him to appoint Coffey ahead of around thirty other Fine Gael veterans with a national profile which Coffey hasn’t got and who have won seats for a second third or fourth time. You also seem to be intentionally missing the point. Coffey writing to the local Newspaper is nothing. Any crank can do this. He is preaching to the converted regurgitating what we already know just so he can raise his profile in the constituency he is running in. And contrary to what you said they are not his own releases they are re-release of positions put forward by FG front benchers usually in the Irish Times and a year ahead of Paudie Coffey.
I never said elect Independents only. I said elect one Independent outside the three main parties which are indistinguishable when it comes to ideology. It sends the message that Waterford is playing hardball. Also Paudie Coffey is Joe Bloggs or is that Billy Nobody?If a party does get the full numbers and Paudie is there it reduces the influence of each politician in that party. This is a mathematical fact. It is also made worse that he is a newcomer who will be expected to serve his time on the back benches.
You really haven’t a clue how Irish parliamentary politics works. Paudie Coffey won’t be in cabinet he will be a backbencher. One of about 70. This will mean he will be in no position to make demands, as he will not be needed if he leaves the party whip, which he won’t. But all this is academic because it’s a general election that might not happen for 18 months. The next game for us is a bye election with an opportunity of a lifetime to hold a government by the balls. This is another mathematical fact.
This is 2010 and there is only three Independents in the Dáil supporting the government. If Tony Gregory could get 100 million in 1982 out of the government for his constituency we can push a few issues over the line at a tenth of the price in real terms. Jackie Healy Ray whether you like him or not has had the confidence of his constituency for years as has Michael Lowry.
what did healy-rae and lowry get in return for their support??? please tell us, because those deals have remained a secret!!!
did healy-rae deliver more to south kerry as an independent than john odonoghue did as a cabinet minister? did he fuk!!0 -
There wont be a bye-election. The next election we will see will be the biggie.
Here's my prediction in a General Election:
Deasy FG (elected 1st count)
O'Shea Lab (elected 2nd count)
Coffey FG (Elected 3rd count)
Kenneally/A.N.Other FF (scrapes in)
the rest:
Cullinane SF - 3,500
Halligan Ind - 3,400
WP - 1,500
Conway Ind - 1,500
PBP - 800
Greens - 500
Could not argue with that order. Maybe they might need more counts that you say however. Labour getting in just behind John Deay will depend on whether Brian O'Shea runs or not. If he dont i think it could make things interesting. I dont think people in the county know enough about Seamus Ryan and i dont think anyone outside the Dungarvan Town Boundary knows enough about Ciara Conway. I think most people rather to vote for the devil they know rather than the one they dont know.0 -
Smiley Burnett wrote: »Brendan Kenneally a junior minister????!!! In what Government???
I honestly dont know the answer to this but was Brendan a junior minister in the past or am i thinking of Jackie Fahey.0 -
Guys,
There is some awful rubbish been sprouted on this topic. If a by election is called in the morning its between 3 candidates. Coffey, Halligan and Ryan.
What benefit does Waterford get out of electing any of those 3?
Little with Coffey, back bench in the opposition. Ryan again like Coffey will offer nothing other than a back bench spot! Halligan as an independent will be seen by the government as an opportunity to stay in power and add a bit of stability especially if Lenihan comes into power. Lenihan will want to see out the full term to get his profile up and he may want to broker a deal with Halligan.
Coffey will take the seat but it will be a waste of time electing him.
Now as for a general election. I think the next government will be a FG/LAB/IND government with Kenny or Bruton in charge with Lenihan in charge of the opposition. It doesn’t matter who Waterford elect because we will not have a minister or a junior minister! Deasy is unpopular within the party and Coffey hasn’t exactly been setting the world alight in the senate plus there is a lot more people ahead of him in line within FG and LAB.
This is what I think is needed for the people of Waterford. The independents need to come together as one. Agree on one candidate and stand him/her. I appeal to Cha O Neill, Mary Roche, Dick Roche, Davy Daniels and John Halligan of Waterford city council and the independents of the County Council, UNITE under the one banner and get what’s best for Waterford. The evidence is quiet clear that it works (Lowry, Gregory, Healy-Rae).
Prediction:
FF will get one seat here, it’s a banker. In the last general election FF received 23,025 1st pref votes between their 3 candidates. If FF are going to run 1 candidate then he is a banker. If the second is chosen to run, it will be Gary Wyse, he will prob poll 3-4k but still there first choice Kenneally will get in.
FG choose to run 3 candidates also in 2007 which achieved 13,552 1st pref votes. Deasy will hold the vote in west and will be elected on the 1st count. Coffey on the other hand will come very close to taking a seat.
Lab no matter who they run will take a seat.
So
Deasy FG
Kenneally FF
O Shea/ Ryan Lab
Coffey FG/ Halligan Ind
Deasy 10,000
O Shea/ Ryan 8000
Kenneally 6700
Coffey 6500
Halligan 5000
Wyse 3700
Cullinane 3200
Greens 900
Conway 800
PBP 600
Walsh WP 500
Others 500
Spoilt 400
That gives us a turnout of about 66-68%
The transfer of SF towards Halligan especially with the City vote could be very interesting. WP vote won’t matter as they have no candidate to run and if Walsh runs they will be lucky to poll above 500 especially when Halligan only got 1700 in last election and he was a good candidate.
So what way would I vote?? If FG guarantee John Deasy a Ministers spot then I would give him my number one, but if this is not the case which is 99% certain then I will vote Halligan no.1 as the independent candidate. Waterford have nothing to lose by giving him a seat because if the usual 4 get in then it’s going to be the same old story!
Fair fecks to you predicting what each canditate will get in votes. Any chance you could tell us now what the numbers will be in the lotto tomorrow night.
I notice as well that you and indeed many others are saying that most of those that will be running in any election are from or are coming close to the city area. They will have to get a hell of a vote from the city if they are to reach the numbers you say because people in the county, especially the more further west you go know little if anything about the city councillors etc. They may know some few things about the likes of David Cullinane, but people like John Halligan, most dont care one bit about him.0 -
As I said, it depends on the markup of the government and how desperate things are. As it stands, its either Lab/FF or FF/FG coalition.
Cant see a FF/FG Coalition, dont think many could to be honest, as for FF/Lab that will only happen with a change of leader in Labour unless Guilmore is a total hypacriate. He has said often enough he wont go into coalition with FF.0 -
Max Powers wrote: »I would rather FG get in granted by themselves without Lab as i think they are a joke, in that case they might need a few independents but it looks like in every poll that neither is big enough to go it alone.
So would i.0 -
Have we ever elected more than 1 FG TD?
I'd say much of the FF vote in Waterford would swing Lab and independent rather than FG.
Yes.
1918 Election. City area I Nationalist Candiate elected, County Area, 1 SF Canditate Elected.
1921 Election. (Waterford and East Tipperary) 5 S.F. elected.
1922 Ekection (Waterford and East Tipperary) 1 Pro Treaty, 2 Lab, 1 Anti Treaty, I Farmers Party.
1923 (Waterford) 1 republican, 1 Ind, 1 Lab, 1 Farmers.
1927 (First Election). 1 Ind, I C.G. 1 FF, 1 SF
1927 (second election). 2 FF, 1 CG, 1 Ind
1932 2 CG, 2 FF
1933 1 National Centre Party, 1 CG, 2 FF
1937 2 FF, 2 FG
1938 2 FF, 2 FG
1943 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Ind
1944 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Ind
1948 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab
1951 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab
1954 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab
1957 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab
1961 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab
1965 1 FF, 1 Fg, 1 Lab
1969 2FF, 1 Fg
1973 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab
1977 2 FF, 2 FG,
1981 2 FF, 2 FG,
1982 (First Election), 2 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF/Wp
1982 (second election), 2 FF, 2 FG
1987 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 PD,
1989 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab
1992 1 Lab, 1 Fg, 1 FF, 1 PD
1997 2 FF, 1 Fg, 1 Lab
2002 2 FF, 1FG, 1 Lab
2007 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab0 -
Just thought I'd do some nonsense calculations on a possible FF vote for the next election.
I think that for the FF figure you have to go back to 1997, prior to Cullen the minister, to get a good feel for what the FF vote minus the ministerial vote is, then look at individuals and then apply a swing. The FF vote in '97 was around 16,000 between 3 candidates, so lets take it that the ministerial vote was worth around 7,000.
If you look at that 16,000, there were 3 figures with a decent profile that generate that total: Kenneally, Cullen and Wilkinson. If you had just Kenneally and Wyse now, you'd have one less vote winner, a guy past his sell by date and a virtual unknown. If you subtract 2,000 for that lack of a third candidate, 750 for the decline of Kenneally and another 750 for the fact that Wilkinson is '97 was probably that bit far ahead of a Wyse in '10 (pure speculation I know -- based on the more solid FF vote in the county and conservative losses) from the 16,000 , you're left with 12,500, due to the change in personnel alone.
Now, if you apply a swing to the 12,500, what are we left with? Let's say if the FF vote of '97 were to switch with the FG vote of the same year, FF would drop by 10% of the electorate, which would be a loss of 28% of their own vote. Applying that to the 12,500, would give 9,000. You split that between Kenneally and Wyse and get something like 6,000 and 3,000, or 5,500 and 3,500.
Hard to take but FF still get a handy seat, even at their lowest ebb, nationally and locally. Of course, if some candidate were to pop up in the county to challenge them, there might be some mathematical chances of no FFer in Waterford.0 -
My own opinion is that as a whole Ireland is over represented with Senators, TD's, County Councillors, Town Councillors, City Councillors, Borough Councillors, MEP's etc, and that well over half of them should be done away with, but accept that they cant under present rules.
Just wondering about people saying that Waterford are under represented with TD's right now. I know that there is something in the constitution that says a constituency must have 1 TD for every 30,000 and something else in the same segment about 1 for every 20,000.
I am not quite clear on it actually says. Does it mean that we have one TD when we reach 30,000 people, 2 when we reach 60,000 etc or do we get one for between one person and 29,999 and another for between 30,000 and 59,999 etc.
If it means that you must reach 30,000 to have one td, reach 60,000 for two td's etc, then we are not under represented according to the 2006 census when the population of Waterford City and County was 107,961. Maybe it is a case that the whole country is over represented and we should start culling a few td's right now instead of looking for bye-elections.
I know i am coming across as more than a bit confusing right now, but hopefully people will understand what i am saying, or maybe set the record straight.0 -
-
Advertisement
-
-
-
Smiley Burnett wrote: »what did healy-rae and lowry get in return for their support??? please tell us, because those deals have remained a secret!!!
did healy-rae deliver more to south kerry as an independent than john odonoghue did as a cabinet minister? did he fuk!!
Healy Rae threatened to bring down the 97 government because John O'Donoghue claimed credit for something he felt he was responsible for.The FF party whip Seamus Brennan practically had to beg him not to do it. Don't try and say John O'Donoghue was the man there.Even so you can't use this to deflect what Tony Gregory acheived in the 80's in similar circumstances to now which in todays terms would mean A 1 Billion cash injection into a local constituency. Also bear in mind Waterford is one of the few places where local interests are in line with National ones.0 -
fuzzy dunlop wrote: »Shock Horror! Visiting opposition leader tells local electorate what he thinks they want to hear! This is absolutely meaningless unless it’s consistently repeated in a national forum but it isn’t. In fact Kenny or FG have never mentioned Coffey even once as a prospect for service in the cabinet. Anyone with bit of political knowledge will know that Paudie Coffey is benefiting from disillusionment with the Government rather than his own ability. Paudie Coffey’s good fortune is that he is not FF not because he is Paudie Coffey.
I’ll tell you what world I’m living in. It’s called reality and you need a reality check if you think Paudie Coffey is going to get a cabinet position in the next government. Btw I didn’t ignore your post! You said Coffey was widely recognised but the fact is that he is an unknown outside Waterford. Also Enda Kenny is a lame duck leader and it will be virtually impossible for him to appoint Coffey ahead of around thirty other Fine Gael veterans with a national profile which Coffey hasn’t got and who have won seats for a second third or fourth time. You also seem to be intentionally missing the point. Coffey writing to the local Newspaper is nothing. Any crank can do this. He is preaching to the converted regurgitating what we already know just so he can raise his profile in the constituency he is running in. And contrary to what you said they are not his own releases they are re-release of positions put forward by FG front benchers usually in the Irish Times and a year ahead of Paudie Coffey.
I never said elect Independents only. I said elect one Independent outside the three main parties which are indistinguishable when it comes to ideology. It sends the message that Waterford is playing hardball. Also Paudie Coffey is Joe Bloggs or is that Billy Nobody?If a party does get the full numbers and Paudie is there it reduces the influence of each politician in that party. This is a mathematical fact. It is also made worse that he is a newcomer who will be expected to serve his time on the back benches.
You really haven’t a clue how Irish parliamentary politics works. Paudie Coffey won’t be in cabinet he will be a backbencher. One of about 70. This will mean he will be in no position to make demands, as he will not be needed if he leaves the party whip, which he won’t. But all this is academic because it’s a general election that might not happen for 18 months. The next game for us is a bye election with an opportunity of a lifetime to hold a government by the balls. This is another mathematical fact.
This is 2010 and there is only three Independents in the Dáil supporting the government. If Tony Gregory could get 100 million in 1982 out of the government for his constituency we can push a few issues over the line at a tenth of the price in real terms. Jackie Healy Ray whether you like him or not has had the confidence of his constituency for years as has Michael Lowry.
110% spot on!
great to see someone with a bit of political brain about them on here!
I’m sorry Sully but you’re like a party political broadcaster for FG that loves to read off their hymn sheet!
If anyone thinks that Coffey will be within an asses hoar of a cabinet seat then I believe they should make an appointment with the doctor on Monday morning. if it was just a FG led government then one of the FG might scrape a junior ministerial role but if the coalition is formed with Labour then you have absolutely no hope!
Don’t anyone doubt that FF are finished! I’m telling you straight out here now that FG will not get more seats than FF in the next election! Labour now and have done in the past will go to both FG and FF and get the best deal for themselves!
If I was to make a bold prediction of seats for the next government id go with this
FF 60 (-12)
FG 51 (NC) (Lose seats in certain areas will gain in others, there will be very little change)
LAB 30 (+10) ( its bold but it can be done)
Green 1 (-5)
SF 6 (+2)
SP 2 (+2) Higgins, Daly
PBP 1 (+1) Boyd Barrett
IND/OTHERS 15 (+4)
This is not going to be an election about parties and who will do the best for their country! Every constituency has a single issue because of the hard times we live in and there is going to be a lot of single issue candidates elected in the next Dail, mark my words!0 -
I'd like to see Cullinane get in. He'll fight for Waterford at every opportunity - From WIT, to job-investment. He's a tireless worker, and deserves it as much as anyone.0
-
fuzzy dunlop wrote: »Healy Rae threatened to bring down the 97 government because John O'Donoghue claimed credit for something he felt he was responsible for.The FF party whip Seamus Brennan practically had to beg him not to do it. Don't try and say John O'Donoghue was the man there.Even so you can't use this to deflect what Tony Gregory acheived in the 80's in similar circumstances to now which in todays terms would mean A 1 Billion cash injection into a local constituency. Also bear in mind Waterford is one of the few places where local interests are in line with National ones.
Pure Bull!! Healy-Rae has struggled to get elected in South Kerry, because the electorate give the credit to Cabinet Minister rather than a gombeen who is no more independent than Biffo!!!0 -
110% spot on!
great to see someone with a bit of political brain about them on here!
I’m sorry Sully but you’re like a party political broadcaster for FG that loves to read off their hymn sheet!
If anyone thinks that Coffey will be within an asses hoar of a cabinet seat then I believe they should make an appointment with the doctor on Monday morning. if it was just a FG led government then one of the FG might scrape a junior ministerial role but if the coalition is formed with Labour then you have absolutely no hope!
Don’t anyone doubt that FF are finished! I’m telling you straight out here now that FG will not get more seats than FF in the next election! Labour now and have done in the past will go to both FG and FF and get the best deal for themselves!
If I was to make a bold prediction of seats for the next government id go with this
FF 60 (-12)
FG 51 (NC) (Lose seats in certain areas will gain in others, there will be very little change)
LAB 30 (+10) ( its bold but it can be done)
Green 1 (-5)
SF 6 (+2)
SP 2 (+2) Higgins, Daly
PBP 1 (+1) Boyd Barrett
IND/OTHERS 15 (+4)
This is not going to be an election about parties and who will do the best for their country! Every constituency has a single issue because of the hard times we live in and there is going to be a lot of single issue candidates elected in the next Dail, mark my words!
Theres only one issue for voters at the next election!!! THEIR PAYSLIPS!!
(just like every other election!)0 -
Smiley Burnett wrote: »Pure Bull!! Healy-Rae has struggled to get elected in South Kerry, because the electorate give the credit to Cabinet Minister rather than a gombeen who is no more independent than Biffo!!!
Anything to contribute other than clichés? He might not have made a quota on a first count (missed by a whisker) but he certainly did get the lions share of transfers and stole the seat from FF.This might have even been a factor in Keeping John O'Donoghe in a high profile position in the cabinet.
http://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2007&cons=1390 -
110% spot on!
great to see someone with a bit of political brain about them on here!
I’m sorry Sully but you’re like a party political broadcaster for FG that loves to read off their hymn sheet!
If anyone thinks that Coffey will be within an asses hoar of a cabinet seat then I believe they should make an appointment with the doctor on Monday morning. if it was just a FG led government then one of the FG might scrape a junior ministerial role but if the coalition is formed with Labour then you have absolutely no hope!
Don’t anyone doubt that FF are finished! I’m telling you straight out here now that FG will not get more seats than FF in the next election! Labour now and have done in the past will go to both FG and FF and get the best deal for themselves!
If I was to make a bold prediction of seats for the next government id go with this
FF 60 (-12)
FG 51 (NC) (Lose seats in certain areas will gain in others, there will be very little change)
LAB 30 (+10) ( its bold but it can be done)
Green 1 (-5)
SF 6 (+2)
SP 2 (+2) Higgins, Daly
PBP 1 (+1) Boyd Barrett
IND/OTHERS 15 (+4)
This is not going to be an election about parties and who will do the best for their country! Every constituency has a single issue because of the hard times we live in and there is going to be a lot of single issue candidates elected in the next Dail, mark my words!
Agree that Coffey and Deast are unlikely to be at the next cabinet table. However if FG were in with Labour, what are the chances that Brian O'Shea might make it to the table, either as a minister itself or as a Junior Minister.0 -
Advertisement
-
Smiley Burnett wrote: »Theres only one issue for voters at the next election!!! THEIR PAYSLIPS!!
(just like every other election!)
The first to have their pay slips looked at are the TD's but that is not going to happen. Richard Bruton tried to dodge the question this week when he was on Deise Am. Would not expect him to talk for all the TD's but it would be if he or some other td would come out and say that 'yes td's wages should be cut, and not just by a small percentage'.0
Advertisement