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Waterford Election 2011
Comments
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The big mistake that FG made last time was running D'Arcy (another bloody school teacher) on the ticket. A Deasy/Coffey ticket would have made more sense. I don't think I've seen Deasy posters around the Dunmore Road area but I have seen Coffey's.Paudie has been canvassing and working hard in the City, for a long time now. He has his constituency office in the heart of Waterford for example. He has done an awful lot of covering for both the City and County. Various different leaflets over the years, canvassing, etc. was done in both locations.
So its unfair to say FG are only focused on the county, there has been a huge amount of work in the city.
Regards...jmcc0 -
Because they support them and don't want to support Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Labour.I Really cant understand how people can vote for sinn fein.
I seem to recall others doing the same thing.They are definately the amateur bunch in this election. There telling people what they want to hear and not been honest with people.
Perhaps they'd have been better negotiating with Europe than that village idiot Cowen and that notable economic expert Lenihan.And they are anti Europe. And if anytime we need europe it is now. I know people are frustrated by the demise of our economy please dont be radical with your vote. Think with your head not your feet!
So are you suggesting people vote for Fianna Fail or the Greens? Who would you suggest that floating voters like myself vote for?If you are voting for the good of your country you will not vote Sinn Fein. They are so many other holes i could put into their fantasy policies. Most of which are not achieveable.
Regards...jmcc0 -
Because they support them and don't want to support Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Labour.
I seem to recall others doing the same thing.
Perhaps they'd have been better negotiating with Europe than that village idiot Cowen and that notable economic expert Lenihan.
So are you suggesting people vote for Fianna Fail or the Greens? Who would you suggest that floating voters like myself vote for?
Regards...jmcc
They are not been truthful. Where do you think they are going to get the money to pay just the public service bill every year? Where will the money come from to stimulate jobs especially after we tell the IMF to feck off and burn the bondholders. Sinn fein are living in fantasy land. Having studied economics for years its madness what they are suggesting.
I haven't yet made up my mind who i m voting for. But when i do it wont be based on politics. it will be based on who i think will do best for Ireland over the next five years. Sinn fein are proclaiming social welfare recipicents , low income worker and middle earned income wont be effected. So where are we going to save money over the next 5 years, how are we going to run the country.? I really fear because of the back lash against the current government that people win vote radical for change because they are disillusioned with current politics. But In my opinion Sinn fein are spinning aload a yarns and simple telling the people what they want to hear.
Pain is ahead... And thats reality. Everyone will be affected. No point in running away from that fact. Its time to face up to facts and stop dancing with fantasy policies and ideas that will fall at the first hurdle.0 -
Politicians telling the truth? What a novel concept.They are not been truthful.
Well telling the IMF to get lost may be problematic.Having studied economics for years its madness what they are suggesting.
Forgive me for saying so, but it would appear that you have voted FF in the past.I haven't yet made up my mind who i m voting for. But when i do it wont be based on politics. it will be based on who i think will do best for Ireland over the next five years.
Obviously the people in FF (and their bankster and developer collaborators) who caused this problem will not be affected. Some of them have been left to retire on massive and unearned pensions. Others have been left to continue their political "careers". In any genuine democracy, these people would be hanging from the lampposts for what they did to the country and its economy.Pain is ahead... And thats reality. Everyone will be affected.
Some will but some might not. In any case, it looks like FG may get enough votes to form a majority government. I still am not sure who I will vote for in this GE. However the problem is that my vote may be irrelevant give the way this country was sold out by FF and its bankster and developer cronies.No point in running away from that fact. Its time to face up to facts and stop dancing with fantasy policies and ideas that will fall at the first hurdle.
Regards...jmcc0 -
I Really cant understand how people can vote for sinn fein. They are definately the amateur bunch in this election. There telling people what they want to hear and not been honest with people. The reality is there is pain ahead. John Gormley said it the other night that been in government its like been in a straight jacket. Some decisions have already been made for you and even if it goes against the grain the decision had to be taken for the good of the country. Sinn Fein cannot answer why they are going to get the money to run the country for next few years. They are talking about using the pension reserve fund ! They are quoting that there is 7bn when in fact there is only 4bn. Our population is growing older and the pressure this will have on the state will be massive. This fund needs to be left alone for the purpose it was built for. Sinn fein in effect want to tell the IMF to leave and where will that leave us. They want to burn the bond holders (whilst this sounds great in theory if we do this we will be ruined for many years from borrowing funds from this source.) And they are anti Europe. And if anytime we need europe it is now. I know people are frustrated by the demise of our economy please dont be radical with your vote. Think with your head not your feet!
If you are voting for the good of your country you will not vote Sinn Fein. They are so many other holes i could put into their fantasy policies. Most of which are not achieveable.[/QUOTE]
My vote will be going to whoever can deliver for Waterford0 -
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They are not been truthful. Where do you think they are going to get the money to pay just the public service bill every year? Where will the money come from to stimulate jobs especially after we tell the IMF to feck off and burn the bondholders. Sinn fein are living in fantasy land. Having studied economics for years its madness what they are suggesting.
I haven't yet made up my mind who i m voting for. But when i do it wont be based on politics. it will be based on who i think will do best for Ireland over the next five years. Sinn fein are proclaiming social welfare recipicents , low income worker and middle earned income wont be effected. So where are we going to save money over the next 5 years, how are we going to run the country.? I really fear because of the back lash against the current government that people win vote radical for change because they are disillusioned with current politics. But In my opinion Sinn fein are spinning aload a yarns and simple telling the people what they want to hear.
Pain is ahead... And thats reality. Everyone will be affected. No point in running away from that fact. Its time to face up to facts and stop dancing with fantasy policies and ideas that will fall at the first hurdle.
I agree that Sinn Féin are not explaining their economic policies in enough detail but that isn't something that can be done in 60 seconds on a radio or TV interview or 5 minutes at the doorstep. From what I know about the policy its plan is to seperate the sovereign debt from the bank debt. Then to default on the bank debt. This will affect the bond holders who are looking to get their money. This will also free us up to a certain degree to other bond holders who will be in a position to loan to us, likely at a cheper rate than the bailout. This is because the 85 thousand million bailout is basically an anchor around our necks which will drown us so nobody will want to touch us.
Once we effectively write off about 55 million of it by defaulting on the private bank debt this anchor suddenly becomes less heavy and our prospects of getting loans on the bond market improve significantly .This might not happen initially but after a few months it should. Iceland is an example of this. Also as a result of a default our growth predictions should rise quicker which means we should get on our feet much faster that if we just accept the 85 billion bailout which will cripple us for decades to come.
Also the other parties are saying that if we do this suddenly the ATMs will stop working and there will be no money. This is a scare tactic. The ECB cannot afford to let this happen. If they do the Irish crisis becomes a European crisis. It's like the US letting one of their states go bankrupt. It would affect the whole country. Europe is not different. So if we default the ECB will not stop pumping money into the county so the country will not stop working.
Now Ireland will not be popular if we do this as it creates hassle for all the other European states. But it's time to look out for ourselves and not for France, Germany or all the other big states. We're already unpopular because our clowns of a government led us on this path to destruction.
Regarding the other parties' plans to renegotiate the deal, I see two problems with this. First, it's not in the interest of the rest of Europe to renegotiate. Renegotating the deal benefits the German and other bond holders in no way. And indeed all the talk from Brussels indicates that renegotation is not an option, unless it benefits all of Europe and not just Ireland. So what happens if Fianna Gael gets elected and goes to renegotiate and is told 'No'. What's plan B? Yes we get our 85 billion loan. We have money to pay the teachers and the guards for a few years. But the vast majority of tax payers tax for years to come goes only to pay the interest on the 85 billion loan. The total cost of paying it off could rise to 200 billion. This is unsustainable and eventually Ireland will default. Make no mistake about it. Unless we strike oil somewhere in the country we will default. And then we're back to the same situation we're in now having to do what Sinn Féin is saying we do now, and do it before we pour billions of Euro into a black hole.
Second if negotiation is agreed what will Europe look for in return? And make no mistake they will look for something in return. Probably for us to sell off all of our remaining assets such as ESB, Bord Gáis, RTE. So when we pay our electricity bill we'll now be paying a German company who owns ESB. Incidentally Fianna Gael are going to do this anyway so effectively Ireland will be left with no assets. If we have no assets how do make money? Only by services and exports. So everything we have, mining and exploration rights, commercial state companies will be foreign owned. Then Europe might still say, yes, we'll renegotiate but only if you increase your corporation tax. We know it's something they want. They know a renegotiated deal is what we want. Quid pro quo and all that.
So the way I see it is that the renogotiated deal option will save on some pain in the short term but result in long term suffering for decades to come. That's why I want to pull off the plaster now, default on the private bank debt none of us had anything to do with. Put the ball in the Europe's court. Take a hit in the short term but come out of it faster and in better condition. It can be done, what's more if you read the foreign economics journals plenty of them are agreeing with Sinn Féin and are saying default now is the right thing to do.
So the question everyone asks, where will Sinn Fein get the money to pay the public sectore, initially the pension reserve fund, what's left of it after Fianna Fáil spent 10 billion of it in twelve months. Then we will be able to borrow on the bond markets shortly after the default and at a cheaper rate than the bailout. And if we get into trouble the ECB will also pump money in as they can't allow Ireland to fail.0 -
Election alert the fianna fail leader is heading to Waterford tomorrow , I trust he will get a traditional decies welcome ( all civil defence river patrol leave cancelled)
Saw kenneally's gang out canvassing last night. They looked like they had got a mauling at the doors. Heads down, dragging their feet. Serves them right0 -
jonnyfingers wrote: »I agree that Sinn Féin are not explaining their economic policies in enough detail but that isn't something that can be done in 60 seconds on a radio or TV interview or 5 minutes at the doorstep. From what I know about the policy its plan is to seperate the sovereign debt from the bank debt. Then to default on the bank debt. This will affect the bond holders who are looking to get their money. This will also free us up to a certain degree to other bond holders who will be in a position to loan to us, likely at a cheper rate than the bailout. This is because the 85 thousand million bailout is basically an anchor around our necks which will drown us so nobody will want to touch us.
Once we effectively write off about 55 million of it by defaulting on the private bank debt this anchor suddenly becomes less heavy and our prospects of getting loans on the bond market improve significantly .This might not happen initially but after a few months it should. Iceland is an example of this. Also as a result of a default our growth predictions should rise quicker which means we should get on our feet much faster that if we just accept the 85 billion bailout which will cripple us for decades to come.
Also the other parties are saying that if we do this suddenly the ATMs will stop working and there will be no money. This is a scare tactic. The ECB cannot afford to let this happen. If they do the Irish crisis becomes a European crisis. It's like the US letting one of their states go bankrupt. It would affect the whole country. Europe is not different. So if we default the ECB will not stop pumping money into the county so the country will not stop working.
Now Ireland will not be popular if we do this as it creates hassle for all the other European states. But it's time to look out for ourselves and not for France, Germany or all the other big states. We're already unpopular because our clowns of a government led us on this path to destruction.
Regarding the other parties' plans to renegotiate the deal, I see two problems with this. First, it's not in the interest of the rest of Europe to renegotiate. Renegotating the deal benefits the German and other bond holders in no way. And indeed all the talk from Brussels indicates that renegotation is not an option, unless it benefits all of Europe and not just Ireland. So what happens if Fianna Gael gets elected and goes to renegotiate and is told 'No'. What's plan B? Yes we get our 85 billion loan. We have money to pay the teachers and the guards for a few years. But the vast majority of tax payers tax for years to come goes only to pay the interest on the 85 billion loan. The total cost of paying it off could rise to 200 billion. This is unsustainable and eventually Ireland will default. Make no mistake about it. Unless we strike oil somewhere in the country we will default. And then we're back to the same situation we're in now having to do what Sinn Féin is saying we do now, and do it before we pour billions of Euro into a black hole.
Second if negotiation is agreed what will Europe look for in return? And make no mistake they will look for something in return. Probably for us to sell off all of our remaining assets such as ESB, Bord Gáis, RTE. So when we pay our electricity bill we'll now be paying a German company who owns ESB. Incidentally Fianna Gael are going to do this anyway so effectively Ireland will be left with no assets. If we have no assets how do make money? Only by services and exports. So everything we have, mining and exploration rights, commercial state companies will be foreign owned. Then Europe might still say, yes, we'll renegotiate but only if you increase your corporation tax. We know it's something they want. They know a renegotiated deal is what we want. Quid pro quo and all that.
So the way I see it is that the renogotiated deal option will save on some pain in the short term but result in long term suffering for decades to come. That's why I want to pull off the plaster now, default on the private bank debt none of us had anything to do with. Put the ball in the Europe's court. Take a hit in the short term but come out of it faster and in better condition. It can be done, what's more if you read the foreign economics journals plenty of them are agreeing with Sinn Féin and are saying default now is the right thing to do.
So the question everyone asks, where will Sinn Fein get the money to pay the public sectore, initially the pension reserve fund, what's left of it after Fianna Fáil spent 10 billion of it in twelve months. Then we will be able to borrow on the bond markets shortly after the default and at a cheaper rate than the bailout. And if we get into trouble the ECB will also pump money in as they can't allow Ireland to fail.
Great contribution. The best I've seen explaining the SF plans for how this mess is best sorted out. The analysis is 100% correct but somehow there are hundreds of thousands of Irish people who will vote on the 25th for cuts, cuts, cuts and will also vote to pay billions of euro to billionaire gamblers, resulting in higher taxes and more cuts for themselves and their children.
Its shocking to think people can be fooled so easily. Its like turkeys voting for Christmas to coin a well used phrase.0 -
Is this true??
Fine Gael have proposed the new graduate PRSI contribution scheme, whereby students would pay 30% of the cost of their education when they graduated.0 -
I Really cant understand how people can vote for sinn fein. They are definately the amateur bunch in this election. There telling people what they want to hear and not been honest with people. The reality is there is pain ahead. John Gormley said it the other night that been in government its like been in a straight jacket. Some decisions have already been made for you and even if it goes against the grain the decision had to be taken for the good of the country. Sinn Fein cannot answer why they are going to get the money to run the country for next few years. They are talking about using the pension reserve fund ! They are quoting that there is 7bn when in fact there is only 4bn. Our population is growing older and the pressure this will have on the state will be massive. This fund needs to be left alone for the purpose it was built for. Sinn fein in effect want to tell the IMF to leave and where will that leave us. They want to burn the bond holders (whilst this sounds great in theory if we do this we will be ruined for many years from borrowing funds from this source.) And they are anti Europe. And if anytime we need europe it is now. I know people are frustrated by the demise of our economy please dont be radical with your vote. Think with your head not your feet!
If you are voting for the good of your country you will not vote Sinn Fein. They are so many other holes i could put into their fantasy policies. Most of which are not achieveable.[/QUOTE]
My vote will be going to whoever can deliver for Waterford
Not being honest with people! For lessons on that see FF for the last 20 years. Lies, lies and more lies. Bankrupted the country while looking after rich friends and themselves ie Charlie Haughey, Ray Burke, Bertie Ahern, Brian Cowen and so on. Career politicians in it for the money and nothing to do with the people or the best interest of the country.
SF TD's get the average industrial wage and will continue to do so. Do you think for one minute any LAB, FG or FF TD or minister will do that? They want to serve the country.. haa give me a break. If you buy into all that then you deserve what you'll get for years to come. As fore me I'm making A STAND for my family and ireland. SF are the only party putting out any strategy which will serve the ordinary people and not vested interests0 -
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chicoreece wrote: »Is this true??
Fine Gael have proposed the new graduate PRSI contribution scheme, whereby students would pay 30% of the cost of their education when they graduated.
From what I hear it's a loan system where students start to pay back afetr graduation. Just imagine being like the US where people are paying back student loans for years after college and even during college years. Guess those with rich daddies might be ok with this but what about everyone else0 -
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This looks like being an interesting one from a results point of view. If I was a betting man I'd put it at:
1. Deasy - Safe
2. Coffey - Safe
3. Seamus Ryan
4. Kenneally (just about)
FG will certainly get the two seats. Labour put their seat a great risk by putting in two candidates, but I think Ryan will get enough. Kenneally will duke it out with the likes of Cullinane. The staunch lifelong FF supporter in Ardmore, Lismore and the likes will see the FF logo and put his mark beside it. Should sneak him in.
Personally I'm not inspired by any of our candidates, very poor group.
FG - Deasy would appear to have brains, but then he seems to make very poor judgement calls and regularly attempt career suicide. Coffey seems genuine, but his expenses are massive.
Labour - Could have managed their election better. Should have seen O'Shea's retirement coming.
SF - Cullinane looks like a creep. I'm not a republican and coming from a business background I find their economic proposals highly amusing. Thats before you go into the morals of the likes of Adams.
Halligan - Seems to have no genuine policies, appears to be a general spoofer. More interested in organising welfare payments etc for a certain district of the city, and probably does a good job for them. A decent counciller, but not TD material.
Rest of the independants and others - actually like the cut of Jody Power. Appalled by the Green Party's behaviour of late, but he looks like he'd make a good Cllr. Might get a 2nd or 3rd preference.
Saying someone looks like a creep, presumably on his poster is not a very business like way of deciding on their abilities ie Cullinane. Likewise you say say you like the 'cut' of Jody Power. If thats how you decide on people then it says more about you than any comments you make about people willing to put themselves before the pepole0 -
Well well well here I was looking forward to FF canvassing at my door and I found out last night that FFers canvassed my estate last week but didn't come near my place or my nearby neighbours. Now there's a surprise not.;)
However anyone that comes canvassing at my door I take some delight pointing out Kenneally's house and filling them in on what my family and neighbours went through last year because of Kenneally doing a "favour" to use his own word that he used for it. Some had heard about it but others were shocked especially at how Kenneally himself treated us.
Are you surprised at any of it..or your neighbours?0 -
insight_man wrote: »Saying someone looks like a creep, presumably on his poster is not a very business like way of deciding on their abilities ie Cullinane. Likewise you say say you like the 'cut' of Jody Power. If thats how you decide on people then it says more about you than any comments you make about people willing to put themselves before the pepole
If we went how people looked on their poster, would you agree that as the only female standing in Waterford, Ciara Conway would be home and dry. :P0 -
Yeah but what if it doesn't, what then? Sinn Fein have been asked this question loads of times and have no answer. If we go down their route and end up not being able to get loans on the bond market, we would be in a world of shit, as we would run out of money to pay for public services. Imagine the turmoil the country would be in then. I think it sucks that we're paying back these bondholders but Sinn Fein's plan sounds like a massive gamble.jonnyfingers wrote: »Once we effectively write off about 55 million of it by defaulting on the private bank debt this anchor suddenly becomes less heavy and our prospects of getting loans on the bond market improve significantly. This might not happen initially but after a few months it should. Iceland is an example of this. Also as a result of a default our growth predictions should rise quicker which means we should get on our feet much faster that if we just accept the 85 billion bailout which will cripple us for decades to come.0 -
jonnyfingers wrote: »So the question everyone asks, where will Sinn Fein get the money to pay the public sectore, initially the pension reserve fund, what's left of it after Fianna Fáil spent 10 billion of it in twelve months. Then we will be able to borrow on the bond markets shortly after the default and at a cheaper rate than the bailout. And if we get into trouble the ECB will also pump money in as they can't allow Ireland to fail.
No, Sinn Fein WON'Tbe able to go back to the bond markets shortly after the default and to say it will is extremely disingenuous and based on no hard evidence at all. It could be years before the bond market would trust the Irish state again (based on the Argentinian situation for example) and in the meantime where would Sinn Fein get the money to pay for social welfare (which they're not going to cut) and public servants (who they aren't going to rationalise) after whats left of the pension reserve fund runs out?
In effect Sinn Fein are propogating populist "all things to all men" policies which a schoolchild could see don't reconcile with each other, its complete fairyland economics.0 -
Psychedelic wrote: »Yeah but what if it doesn't, what then? Sinn Fein have been asked this question loads of times and have no answer. If we go down their route and end up not being able to get loans on the bond market, we would be in a world of shit, as we would run out of money to pay for public services. Imagine the turmoil the country would be in then. I think it sucks that we're paying back these bondholders but Sinn Fein's plan sounds like a massive gamble.
The main parties have also been asked the same question if their renogiation of the interest rate is rejected. Over the last 3 days all the EU finance Rhen etc has said there will be no regotiation. Being asked this question none of them could answer it.
Everything is a gamble but I believe the SF policy is the right one0 -
insight_man wrote: »The main parties have also been asked the same question if their renogiation of the interest rate is rejected. Over the last 3 days all the EU finance Rhen etc has said there will be no regotiation. Being asked this question none of them could answer it.
Everything is a gamble but I believe the SF policy is the right one
Ok so you agree with Sinn Fein's policy, and getting rid of the IMF. So tell me, where is the money coming from to pay all the teachers, nurses etc etc? Sinn Fein's policy has no backbone behind it. I agree with BlaasForRafa, it's fairytail economics. Regardless of who is in government next, we have a tough few years ahead of us. FACT! What Sinn Fein proposes is complete nonsense. Sorry, but it is.0 -
chicoreece wrote: »Ok so you agree with Sinn Fein's policy, and getting rid of the IMF. So tell me, where is the money coming from to pay all the teachers, nurses etc etc? Sinn Fein's policy has no backbone behind it. I agree with BlaasForRafa, it's fairytail economics. Regardless of who is in government next, we have a tough few years ahead of us. FACT! What Sinn Fein proposes is complete nonsense. Sorry, but it is.
Now there is broad agreement among leading Irish and foreign economists and financiers that Ireland has very high probability of sovereign default around 2013-2014. Sovereign default would bring far more serious consequences than the bank debt default.
The only way to avoid it is to:
1)Restructure or default on bank debt (in case of restructuring the haircuts should be significant, i.e. 70-95%)
2)Extend the term for the austerity measures, from current ECB-imposed 3-4 years to 5-6 years
3)Renegotiate interest terms to realistic levels (below 4.5%)
4)Apply reasonable measures to eliminate wasteful public spending (public sector salary reductions and caps; caps on state pensions; significant reduction in social welfare payments and term caps on them, etc)
5)Create jobs
However, 3 main parties (FG, Labour, and FF) still don’t want to recognize the very high probability of sovereign default within 2-3 years and still avoid taking clear policies on bank debt restructuring/default and all other areas mentioned above.
Believe me or not, SF, despite being weak in some other policies, is the only party to recognize this problem while the rest just simply neglect the incoming collapse.
The problem is that the other parties bluff their way along and are supported by a receptive media. This leads people to believe the rubbish the come out with0 -
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Yes, that is also true.insight_man wrote: »The main parties have also been asked the same question if their renogiation of the interest rate is rejected. Over the last 3 days all the EU finance Rhen etc has said there will be no regotiation. Being asked this question none of them could answer it.0 -
Psychedelic wrote: »Yeah but what if it doesn't, what then? Sinn Fein have been asked this question loads of times and have no answer. If we go down their route and end up not being able to get loans on the bond market, we would be in a world of shit, as we would run out of money to pay for public services. Imagine the turmoil the country would be in then. I think it sucks that we're paying back these bondholders but Sinn Fein's plan sounds like a massive gamble.
If you think default is a gamble, accepting the bail out and defaulting anyway in a few years is almost a sure thing. The fact of the matter is as a member state of the EU we can't be allowed to run out of money. If we did it could bring down the whole thing, so the other members can't let that happen. That's one of the benefits of being in the EU. I'm not saying that defaulting is an easy thing to do and we'll get out of things scott free, far from it. But I believe that the country won't simply run out of money. And I'm more scared of the alternative, paying off this bail out for decades to come.BlaasForRafa wrote: »No, Sinn Fein WON'Tbe able to go back to the bond markets shortly after the default and to say it will is extremely disingenuous and based on no hard evidence at all. It could be years before the bond market would trust the Irish state again (based on the Argentinian situation for example) and in the meantime where would Sinn Fein get the money to pay for social welfare (which they're not going to cut) and public servants (who they aren't going to rationalise) after whats left of the pension reserve fund runs out?
If effect Sinn Fein are propogating populist "all things to all men" policies which a schoolchild could see don't reconcile with each other, its complete fairyland economics.
Fair points. But on the first one you're speculating that we won't be able to go to the bond markets. I'm just speculating the opposite. Neither of us can be proved right. Now I don't have an economics degree but I am an engineer so I think logically, gather information and make informed decisions. I have done plenty of reading of other economists views. Based on all that I've read I feel confident that we could go to the bond markets pretty soon after a default, or at least arrange another deal that would keep our economy ticking over. We wouldn't be rich by any means but once the economy is ticking over, and we're no longer saddled with bank debt, we'll recover and grow quicker. You cite Argentina as an expample of what could happen if things go wrong, but even then Argentina rebounded relatively quickly and returned to growth much quicker than expected. You might thinkg I'm being naive but I'm looking at the longterm view, not the short term view. In the short term accepting the bailout will provide us with money we need. But in the long term I think the cost is catastrophic, especially as the deal is unlikely to be negotiated to any significant extent, resulting in unsustainable repayments which will cause us to default anyway.
So I envisage a default on the bank debt and then another bailout deal for only our sovereign debt, a significantly smaller loan and one we could manage. This would also be in the EU's interest as allowing Ireland to fail would affect all member states. So we will get another loan even if we default on the bank debt. The country will not stop.
Look I wish we weren't in the situation we are in, but unfortunately we are. The fact of the matter is the EU/IMF deal will cripple our country while making other countries rich at our expense. We have nothing to bargain with except the threat of default. It's time to be brave and use that threat. I'm not going for election, I'm not even a member of Sinn Féin, but if I was at the negotiating table I would be seriously threatening a default. If the other side came back and offered another, more manageble, bail out deal, I'd take it. But the other Irish parties going into negotiations when the other side knows that there is no threat of a default we will get nothing. That's why I'll vote Sinn Féin, even though I don't agree with all their policies. But I agree with them more than any other party if only for their stance the bailout.
Which brings me onto your second point about no cuts. Now I don't share the belief that cuts won't be made. Even with defaulting I believe measures will have to be taken, including reducing expenditure and increasing efficiencies. I do think we should try to do it as fairly as possible, something I don't believe a right wing govenment will do. Regardless these cuts being made as well as continuing to spend billions repaying the EU/IMF bailout will truly cripple us. We don't have the growth predictions, or any natural resources, to pay off this loan so we are heading down the route to an inevitable default.
You keep asking Sinn Féin to answer where the money will come from if we default. I ask you and any FF, FG or Lab party representatives three questions. What's the plan if the deal can't be negotiated? Even with a negotiated deal how can we afford to pay it off? Where will the money come from then?0 -
Just to add, here's a pretty good article in the Independant regarding the possiblility of default.
http://bit.ly/fy4KPF
I wonder, if Fianna Gael turned around tomorrow and decided to go down the default route would anyone planning on voting for them still do so? Sinn Féin suffers a lot just for the name and peoples' beliefs about that name, which tends to overshadow any good policies they have, which is a shame.
I wish it was a simple matter of Vote A if you want to repay an impossible loan or vote B if you want to default on private debt that was not caused by you or anyone you know.
I'd imagine a lot of people in Ireland would vote B.0 -
Gerry Adams for president
Of Egypt0 -
1)Restructure or default on bank debt (in case of restructuring the haircuts should be significant, i.e. 70-95%)
Even then there is still the sovereign debt issue which is 50+billion over the next 4 years. If the EU/IMF deal is thrown out then Sinn Fein haven't a clue where to get the money from, they throw out spoofery stuff like the Pension reserve fund and wealth taxes.
And don't say they'll get money from the bond market, the bond market will tell Sinn Fein to eff right off. Argentina was shut out of the bond market for 4 years before any movement was made on restructuring and that process took another 5 years or more to complete.2)Extend the term for the austerity measures, from current ECB-imposed 3-4 years to 5-6 years
This is not a measure that Sinn Fein are exclusively promoting. The danger with doing this though is that you need to borrow even more money to finance the deficit.3)Renegotiate interest terms to realistic levels (below 4.5%)
Fine Gael and Labour have already said they will do this.4)Apply reasonable measures to eliminate wasteful public spending (public sector salary reductions and caps; caps on state pensions; significant reduction in social welfare payments and term caps on them, etc)
In Sinn Fein terms "reasonable measures" in effect means no measures or at most only token measures. We need someone who will actually wield the axe, how Sinn Fein are going to make savings without cuts or redundancies is just plain unrealistic.5)Create jobs
Sinn Fein have come out with mainly statist proposals which involve high levels of capital investment, they are not a pro-business party which is what the country actually needs. FG are the only party that have come out with workable proposals that can give small and medium enterprises the chance to obtain working capital through their credit insurance scheme.Believe me or not, SF, despite being weak in some other policies, is the only party to recognize this problem while the rest just simply neglect the incoming collapse.
Sinn Fein can come out with their fairyland economics because they know they're not going to be in power so they can come out with whatever spoofery they like.0 -
Politicians telling the truth? What a novel concept.
Well telling the IMF to get lost may be problematic.
Forgive me for saying so, but it would appear that you have voted FF in the past.
Obviously the people in FF (and their bankster and developer collaborators) who caused this problem will not be affected. Some of them have been left to retire on massive and unearned pensions. Others have been left to continue their political "careers". In any genuine democracy, these people would be hanging from the lampposts for what they did to the country and its economy.
Some will but some might not. In any case, it looks like FG may get enough votes to form a majority government. I still am not sure who I will vote for in this GE. However the problem is that my vote may be irrelevant give the way this country was sold out by FF and its bankster and developer cronies.
Regards...jmcc
"Forgive me for saying so, but it would appear that you have voted FF in the past." Attually you are very wrong in your assumptions.
I dont think FG will get a majority. I predict they will get about 65-70 seats which will not be enough to hold a majority. My prediction will be labour/FG coalition. And I reckon we will be back voting again in 2-3 years times because both parties are poles apart in relation to policies.
David Cullinane polled very badly in recent local elections and its hard to see him going from 570 votes to 7k or 8k in votes to assure that he is elected. He is a very unliked character and talking to a number of farmers who were at the talk the other night he came across very arrogant.
Best of luck with your vote. A vote for Sinn fein is a vote to put Ireland back to where we were in the 1920's. Note i haven't spoke about any other party. Just Sinn fein. Because it just annoys me to read and listen to their fantasy ideas and policies. We need the truth and not any more lies. Why is it that Gerry Adams or any member of sinn fein do not know where they are going to get money to fund the services of the country.
Watching the news earlier and it was comparing different party policies and what really struck me what on every policy Sinn fein were all for giving everything for nothing!!!!!!!! Surely not a way to run a country that in my view is already bankrupt but been bailed out by the IMF. Where are Sinn Fein getting the money to run the country??????????? Can anyone answer...0 -
I dont think FG will get a majority. I predict they will get about 65-70 seats which will not be enough to hold a majority. My prediction will be labour/FG coalition. And I reckon we will be back voting again in 2-3 years times because both parties are poles apart in relation to policies.
I dont think FG and Lab will even last that long. We might have to vote in a presidential and a general election as well as some referendum later in the year if the two of them get into bed together. Eamon Guilmore seems to have this idea of its Labours Way or no way, not just for renegogiation the bail out but for everything and some of those with him are no better. Joan Bruton for example.
If they last 2-3 years together they will be doing well.0 -
Some of the canditates are on six-one either Tomorrow or Monday. Cant remember which they said this evening.0
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Waterford six one Monday I heard . Canvassed by deasey then Ryan people tonight by Newtown0
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insight_man wrote: »Saying someone looks like a creep, presumably on his poster is not a very business like way of deciding on their abilities ie Cullinane. Likewise you say say you like the 'cut' of Jody Power. If thats how you decide on people then it says more about you than any comments you make about people willing to put themselves before the pepole
You'd be surprised. Good looking people generally do better in interviews, and receive more favourable treatment from their superiors and co-workers. Dozens of studies have shown this.
By the 'cut' of Jody, keeping my business hat on, I like his CV. He is well educated, well travelled and has decent amount of work experience on local commitees.
People were only delighted to criticise how Cowan looked, and yes it did reflect badly on us on an international level. Similarly with Kenneally's ear mentioned earlier here.0
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