Waterford Election 2011

nkay1985

tombliboo83 wrote: »

I think it's a possibility that FG will form a Govt with FF, crazy as it seems but FF won't poll anywhere near as badly as people think. I'm worried that the FG-Labour relationship will be badly damaged if the cheap political tactics between these two parties continue. The most favourable Govt imo is FG lead with a couple of independents of real calibre, thus leaving a credible Govt and opposition.

I think FG and Labour have decided that they've done enough sniping at each other etc now and have called a halt. Both Kenny and Gilmore made seperate statements yesterday to that effect. I personally think they're incompatible in government but if that's the only configuration of government that'll work, they'll do it. There is a real possibility of a FG + Independents government anyway if FG can maintain the levels of support they are currently reported to have.

nkay1985

Seem I just missed John Deasy's canvassers. Was just out of the shower and saw Jim Darcy heading away form the house. Went down and picked up what had been left in the letterbox and what else do I find there only Brendan Kenneally's literature! I'm 99% sure whoever delivered that didn't knock at my door. Scared, I reckon.

dlofnep

I've yet to catch any FG or FF canvassers. Chances are I missed them. Did get a few leaflets.

Deise Tom

tombliboo83 wrote: »

I think it's a possibility that FG will form a Govt with FF,

The two of them would be far better try and get the country back on track together rather than to go into bed with Labour or Sinn Fein.

Deise Tom

Sully wrote: »

It wont happen. FF and FG coalition is not on the cards. Nor will it be put on the cards. Its something FG have been very strong about, compared to some of the other parties (excluding Sinn Fein).

They dont have to go into coalition. Everyone knows that FG will be the biggest party after the election. Most will agree that despite FG having the most seats they could fall short of an overall majority. When the dail deopens FF could side on the side of FG to form a government and leave them to get on with things as long as possible as a minority government.

Deise Tom

dlofnep wrote: »

I've yet to catch any FG or FF canvassers. Chances are I missed them. Did get a few leaflets.

Labour were in Dungarvan last Saturday outside the shopping centre, under the WLR studio and it was very clear that the two fellows were clearly picking and choosing who they were approaching to canvas. Does Seamus Ryan wear glasses. He could have been one of them. Had a big red rosette on his jacket.

Roanmore

Had 2 groups of canvessers call today in Dungarvan. Two women who called representing John Deasy and a group of men who decided just to drop the leaflet in my door without calling even though they looked in my window while passing and saw me. I suppose since Halligan became Mayor he and his camp reckon they are too good to talk to the ordinary folk. I gave him my number one the last time and at the previous local election when I was living in the city. No vote this time.

Sully

I wonder are people just not hearing the knocks/bell from canvassers? FG are out canvassing and have always been, so unless some of them are being lazy I think people are not hearing them or other parties..

Kennealy was in Tramore this afternoon anyway.

Deise Tom

Sully wrote: »

I wonder are people just not hearing the knocks/bell from canvassers?

I think some of them just have to be heard saying something.

AdMMM

Interesting new posters went up today by Fianna Fail (and I'm pretty sure they correspond with the sudden disappearance of a few SF posters in places too). It's a combination of Micheal Martin and Brendan Keneally printed on very thin and not very wide board. If I was to call it as I saw it, I'd say that this is a knee-jerk reaction (printed on a tight budget) to the personal popularity of Micheal Martin and using that to associate credibility with the not-so-credible Brendan Keneally.

Looking at the opinion poll that's to be published in the SBP tomorrow, I now firmly think that Labour have well and truly jeopardised their chances of a seat. With two unknown candidates running, they would probably be polling below the national average for Labour and because they have two unknown candidates, they simply won't transfer to one another. I reckon that with the elimination of either Labour candidate, there'll be plenty of non-transferable votes (Ciara Conway's going to Fine Gael and already eliminated county candidates) and votes transferred to Halligan and Cullinane (in the case of Ryan).

I'm still going with 2 FG but have now lumped FF, SF, Lab and Ind into the race for the 3rd and 4th seat!

Deise Tom

AdMMM wrote: »

Interesting new posters went up today by Fianna Fail (and I'm pretty sure they correspond with the sudden disappearance of a few SF posters in places too). It's a combination of Micheal Martin and Brendan Keneally printed on very thin and not very wide board. If I was to call it as I saw it, I'd say that this is a knee-jerk reaction (printed on a tight budget) to the personal popularity of Micheal Martin and using that to associate credibility with the not-so-credible Brendan Keneally.

Looking at the opinion poll that's to be published in the SBP tomorrow, I now firmly think that Labour have well and truly jeopardised their chances of a seat. With two unknown candidates running, they would probably be polling below the national average for Labour and because they have two unknown candidates, they simply won't transfer to one another. I reckon that with the elimination of either Labour candidate, there'll be plenty of non-transferable votes (Ciara Conway's going to Fine Gael and already eliminated county candidates) and votes transferred to Halligan and Cullinane (in the case of Ryan).

I'm still going with 2 FG but have now lumped FF, SF, Lab and Ind into the race for the 3rd and 4th seat!

All parties use the posters with the party leaders photo alongside the photo of the canditate or canditates for a constituency dont they, the main ones anyway, but they may not be as plentyful as the ones with the individual canditates face.

nkay1985

Deise Tom wrote: »

All parties use the posters with the party leaders photo alongside the photo of the canditate or canditates for a constituency dont they, the main ones anyway, but they may not be as plentyful as the ones with the individual canditates face.

Nah I saw the posters Adam is referring to and I'm with him on it. They look very much like a rush job and his reasoning makes complete sense. Kenneally has no personal accomplishments to stand over and he also doesn't have any real popularity locally due to the anti-FF backlash and his ineffectiveness so he'll try to associate himself with the bright new hope for FF to try to glean some credibility from that association.

Would really love to see him lose his seat. Three fresh TDs sounds good to me.

MagicMcGrath

nkay1985 wrote: »

Kenneally has no personal accomplishments to stand over

Horribly wrong. The most recent of which was that he was the biggest player by far in retaining the 24 hour coast guard service by hounding Noel Dempsey over it's importance. Tell me I'm wrong? I'm a supporter of any man that does something which is close to my heart. He's a local TD, not a national TD, that has been well documented, and the reason he is being tipped to still get elected is because he has done many "smaller" things such as helping people seeking council housing, or helping those looking for grant aid on insulating their homes. Being FF would simply not be enough to get him over the finish line, but having personally helped hundreds if not thousands at micro level over the past 20 years should.

He's getting my number one because he has delivered for me before and I believe he'll deliver for me again.

nkay1985

Tomorrow's polls for anyone who's interested:

Sunday Business Post / Red C poll:
FG: 39% (+1)
Lab: 17% (-3)
FF: 16% (+1)
SF: 12% (+2)
Grns: 2% (-1)
Ind: 14% (nc)

Sunday Independent / Millward Brown Poll:
FG 37% (-1)
Lab 20% (-3)
FF 16% (+4)
SF 12% (+2)
Others 14% (-2)
GP 1% (n/c)

Very interesting to see that Labour have continued the downward trend and in a big way. Spending a week attacking FG obviously didn't go down well.

FG holding steady in the high 30s. That would be a great result for them.

Both polls agree that FF has 16%. Martin has done his job well.

SF regain the couple of points they lost last week.

Depending on how the next five days go, could we see FF outpolling Labour? It would have seemed unthinkable a few weeks ago but not so much now.

From a local perspective, Adam's point about the two Labour candidates might be accurate - they may seriously struggle to hold their seat. If Kenneally polls the FF national percentage he may be ok but, with so few transfers expected to go their way, could still have a battle on his hands. If Cullinane could poll 11% or 12%, then the fights for the third and fourth seats in Waterford could be some of the most interesting in the country. Can't wait for count day!

nkay1985

MagicMcGrath wrote: »

Horribly wrong. The most recent of which was that he was the biggest player by far in retaining the 24 hour coast guard service by hounding Noel Dempsey over it's importance. Tell me I'm wrong? I'm a supporter of any man that does something which is close to my heart. He's a local TD, not a national TD, that has been well documented, and the reason he is being tipped to still get elected is because he has done many "smaller" things such as helping people seeking council housing, or helping those looking for grant aid on insulating their homes. Being FF would simply not be enough to get him over the finish line, but having personally helped hundreds if not thousands at micro level over the past 20 years should.

He's getting my number one because he has delivered for me before and I believe he'll deliver for me again.

Parish pump politics, is it? I'm sure he had plenty of clout in the housing offices as a Government TD. What about when they're in opposition? And so what if he is still able to "deliver" in that sense. It's this kind of backward politics that needs to be stamped out. You're entitled to vote for who ever you like but don't expect any sound-minded individual to agree with you.

old gregg

Sully wrote: »

I wonder are people just not hearing the knocks/bell from canvassers? FG are out canvassing and have always been, so unless some of them are being lazy I think people are not hearing them or other parties..
Kennealy was in Tramore this afternoon anyway.

FG chap called to me up in grange the other night and has been mentioned elsewhere, when I opened the door he was already turned to walk with his hand out and the flyer outstretched for me to take. Not canvassing as such, more an air of we're going to win, take it or leave it. I don't think either candidate was even present on the estate. A little 'right wing' scary to be honest.

Sully

old gregg wrote: »

FG chap called to me up in grange the other night and has been mentioned elsewhere, when I opened the door he was already turned to walk with his hand out and the flyer outstretched for me to take. Not canvassing as such, more an air of we're going to win, take it or leave it. I don't think either candidate was even present on the estate. A little 'right wing' scary to be honest.

Can you PM me a description and what candidate?

I can only speak for Paudie Coffey, as thats the campaign I am involved in, but I would assume it applies to John also but - neither candidate are taking much notice of the polls are belief they will get two seats. There are 15 candidates here. The people have yet to cast a vote. The message those heading up the campaign locally is keep knocking on doors throughout each day and evening and not be complacent. There are no guarantees in politics, and Fine Gael locally and nationally are using that mindset and are not taking anything for granted.

New FG posters are up, various different flyers from candidates are in circulation along with the main one, all participating in debates etc.

We are hoping that the predictions are true, we want to get two Fine Gael TDs, and we want those two Fine Gael TDs to get the strongest possible vote. We will canvass day and night in an effort to get our message across.

Deise Tom

nkay1985 wrote: »

Nah I saw the posters Adam is referring to and I'm with him on it. They look very much like a rush job and his reasoning makes complete sense. Kenneally has no personal accomplishments to stand over and he also doesn't have any real popularity locally due to the anti-FF backlash and his ineffectiveness so he'll try to associate himself with the bright new hope for FF to try to glean some credibility from that association.

Would really love to see him lose his seat. Three fresh TDs sounds good to me.

Which would be...............

nkay1985

Deise Tom wrote: »

Which would be...............

Any three who aren't Kenneally. If I was to choose three myself, it'd be Coffey, Cullinane and Ryan/Halligan/Collery but would be quite happy just to see Kenneally not get back in as I feel he's been an awful representative for Waterford and part of the old guard that needs to be gotten rid of.

Sully

Would you not prefer a more experienced politician getting the post, rather then a last min deceleration with no experience? Considering the role..

Dr. Baltar

Hey guys, I added John Halligan as a friend on facebook a few days ago and he is answering questions at 9pm tonight on facebook chat.

MitchKoobski

Dr. Baltar wrote: »

Hey guys, I added John Halligan as a friend on facebook a few days ago and he is answering questions at 9pm tonight on facebook chat.

If he's smart about it he'll use Meebo so his browser doesn't have a fit of freezing and crashing.

Dr. Baltar

MitchKoobski wrote: »

If he's smart about it he'll use Meebo so his browser doesn't have a fit of freezing and crashing.

I was thinking the same. He's literally going to have dozens of little pop ups at the same time.

stickysten

really hope john halligan does get voted in, i think in this election a lot of people will be looking to what a counciller can do locally as opposed to what he can do nationally, halligan is very well regarded in the city, and very approachable and you know hes not in it for the money, and does an awful lot for the people in the city but its as you said he mightnt be well known in the county, deasy is well known country wide for gods sake (and hes still the only politician to call to my door) I for one will be staying away from FF/FG

Sully

stickysten wrote: »

really hope john halligan does get voted in, i think in this election a lot of people will be looking to what a counciller can do locally as opposed to what he can do nationally, halligan is very well regarded in the city, and very approachable and you know hes not in it for the money, and does an awful lot for the people in the city but its as you said he mightnt be well known in the county, deasy is well known country wide for gods sake (and hes still the only politician to call to my door) I for one will be staying away from FF/FG

But his job is for national politics. Not local politics. Thats why you have councilors.

stickysten

Sully wrote: »

But his job is for national politics. Not local politics. Thats why you have councilors.[/QUOTE


yeah sully youre right there i just didnt know how to word what i was trying to say i mean with the way everything is down here now people are gonna be asking "what can you do for me" a lot more than in previous elections when everyone was working and things were going great....ill be honest ive always voted but ive never thought too hard about who i was gonna vote for before, but now that im in deep s**t ill want to be voting for a man who i know/hope can help me

Margarmur

Dr. Baltar wrote: »

Hey guys, I added John Halligan as a friend on facebook a few days ago and he is answering questions at 9pm tonight on facebook chat.

John is a great talker but thats all he is. He has achieved very little and the rumour out there is that he promises the world but never delivers. He joined a pact with a number of fine gael/lab/independents and left it the minute he finished his year as mayor. This would suggest he used the pact for the great salary and presitige for the year and as soon as he had it all he no longer wanted to be a pact which would have to make unpopular decisions. He was workers party for years and as the tag goes your roots never really leave you. In my opinion there is no such thing as an independent candidate.

Margarmur

nkay1985 wrote: »

Parish pump politics, is it? I'm sure he had plenty of clout in the housing offices as a Government TD. What about when they're in opposition? And so what if he is still able to "deliver" in that sense. It's this kind of backward politics that needs to be stamped out. You're entitled to vote for who ever you like but don't expect any sound-minded individual to agree with you.

Brian o'Shea did alot of good work over the past number of years and he was in opposition. You call your self sound-minded... ????????:)

Dr. Baltar

Margarmur wrote: »

John is a great talker but thats all he is. He has achieved very little and the rumour out there is that he promises the world but never delivers. He joined a pact with a number of fine gael/lab/independents and left it the minute he finished his year as mayor. This would suggest he used the pact for the great salary and presitige for the year and as soon as he had it all he no longer wanted to be a pact which would have to make unpopular decisions. He was workers party for years and as the tag goes your roots never really leave you. In my opinion there is no such thing as an independent candidate.

Having worked in a job where I would meet local councillors on a daily basis I can tell you that the general consensus of Halligan was that the other local TDs were afraid of him. He was honest in the way that he did things and it didn't settle good with the rest.
That alone would get him a vote from me. But the Worker's Party membership is the one thing that stops him getting a number 1 vote.

nkay1985

Sully wrote: »

Would you not prefer a more experienced politician getting the post, rather then a last min deceleration with no experience? Considering the role..

Yeah I would but given the choice between Kenneally and Collery, I'd choose Collery. There are very few candidates I'd choose him ahead of, if any.

Margarmur wrote: »

Brian o'Shea did alot of good work over the past number of years and he was in opposition. You call your self sound-minded... ????????:)

Brian O'Shea was a pro-active TD who was good for Waterford. He spoke 100 times in the Dail and received answers to 338 written questions in the last year.

Kenneally is a useless money-grabber who has done fcuk all for Waterford. By way of comparison, he spoke 9 times and received answers to 51 written questions.

I don't like to insult Brian O'Shea by even mentioning him in the same breath of Kenneally but no doubt you'll try to defend the indefensible.