Waterford Election 2011

nkay1985

ziedth wrote: »

I think SF has a strangely large following in Dungarvan IIRC.

Yeah Brendan Mansfield is fairly popular out that way alright. Also, while SF lost a seat on the City Council and Cullinane's vote decreased in the last local elections, they also gained a seat in the county with Pat Fitzgerald and did well in other town council elections so they'll be hoping to pull that local support towards Cullinane for the general. The majority of his vote is certainly a city vote but he should poll ok in the county too.

Halligan is the big unknown because you just don't know how many votes he can possibly pull from the county and also how many people will vote for parties rather than personalities.

What kind of vote management Labour can muster will be another big one, given their candidates' low profiles county-wide.

And, as already mentioned, how many first preferences Kenneally can gather from the die-hard FF supporters is what'll decide his fate. I love the term "transfer toxic", don't you? :P

AdMMM

Something I worked on yesterday:

The 4 seater constituency of Waterford has always been an easy one to call, often described as a microcosm of the Irish political arena that conforms to the national trends. You have to go back as far 1987 to find the last time that Waterford was something other than 2FF, 1FG and 1 Labour. Up until a year a go, the entire constituency still looked unexciting but then a series of events unfolded that has turned Waterford into a real bloodbath that sees candidates clambering over one another in a bid to become the next group of TDs to represent Waterford.

First, poll-topping Martin Cullen announced that he was retiring from politics. This was amidst a free-fall in popularity of Fianna Fail, a party that had dominated the 2007 election with over 45% of the vote. That in itself was really only of benefit to Fine Gael who then looked certain to finally gain a second seat through Paudie Coffey who had spent his time since the 2002 election in the petri-dish of the Irish political system, The Senate. It took the surprise announcement that Labour TD Brian O’Shea was not going to be contesting this General Election to send the Labour Party into panic mode and give the other candidates, namely John Halligan (Ind) and David Cullinane (SF) a real chance of being elected. Indeed, as far as Waterford is concerned, this election is anything but decided.

Come this Friday, we’ll see a total of 15 candidates on our ballot papers, comprised of 2 FG, 1 FF, 2 Lab, 1 SF, 1 Green, 1 Fis Nua, 1 WP and 6 Independents. Waterford is a 4 seater constituency and of the 15 candidates, only 2 are outgoing Deputies. The number of Independents running this time around has increased by 100%, with only 3 running back in 2007. This is a real sign of frustration amongst the public in the Irish political system and is a trend that’s mirrored all around the country with 174 (by my count) Independents running for election in Ireland. Of the 15 candidates, only 6 have run in the General Election before leaving 9 newcomers try to adjust to the grand task of trying to cover a large constituency.

The only group that can really afford to rest on their laurels in these final few days of the campaign are Fine Gael. With Martin Cullen’s resignation and the severe decline in popularity of Fianna Fail, they have been gifted a seat. The only uncertainty is over who will top the poll. John Deasy managed 7,554 first preferences last time around and the Dungarvan man has always been popular throughout the City and County. John will be hoping to top the poll this time around but those campaigning for Paudie Coffey will hope that his constituency office in Waterford City coupled with an aggressive media strategy will see them pick up the the City vote, especially with the decision taken not to run a city based candidate such as John Cummins. Coffey will also undoubtedly hope to build on his native county vote. I predict that the FG vote will be split closely around 60:40 with Deasy topping the poll and the distribution of his surplus and the elimination of maybe one Independent will be enough to give the second seat to Coffey.

Even in the middle of the FF meltdown, I was still predicting an easy seat for them. In fact, at one point I discussed the possibility of Brendan Kenneally topping the poll if Micheal Martin managed to regenerate the party and pull them back up the opinion polls to over 20%. Time is quickly running out for the new Fianna Fail leader though, and such a situation now looks very unlikely. In fact, if we are to believe national opinion polls, Fianna Fail will just barely hang on with them polling at 16%. I am quite sceptical of how relevant these national polls are to the mood in Waterford however. Waterford has lost thousands of jobs, has not yet reached university status and was deprived of a bye-election while all this was happening and all on Fianna Fail’s watch. It would appear as if the local branch of Fianna Fail are quite worried about Brendan’s chances and it seems that the erection of hastily produced posters showing himself and Micheal Martin is a crude attempt at trying to associate Brendan with the charisma and personal popularity of Micheal and appeal to all Fianna Fail voters. It’s this apparent admission of weakness by Fianna Fail that has me relegate Brendan’s evaluation of getting a safe third seat and into the battlefield with the rest of the candidates who have a realistic chance of being elected.

It’s at this point that it’s quite frustrating that there has been no opinion poll commissioned especially for the Waterford constituency. Red C carried out an individual constituency poll on behalf of PaddyPower to help them make up odds for candidates but this would not have been detailed enough to use for any real analysis. I simply do not believe that the dynamics that exist within this constituency allow us to rely on the national opinion polls as Gospel. As I have outlined above, Fianna Fail’s behaviour within this constituency combined with the reception they received while canvassing in Waterford City indicates that they will poll below the national average here.

Likewise, Labour are currently polling between 17% and 20% according to the latest Red C and Millward Brown Lansdowne polls. That would ordinarily be enough to comfortably elect a candidate for them but Labour have opted for an optimistic 2 person ticket consisting of two Councillors largely unknown outside of their own constituencies. This in itself should be enough to worry even the most optimistic of Labour supporters but when you consider that one of the candidates will have to rely on the others transfers if they are to be elected and that Labour have not run more than one candidate in this constituency since 1969, you begin to wonder if Labour, as an organisation, are capable of pulling off an effective vote management strategy across the constituency.

Sinn Fein are hoping that it will 3rd time lucky for David Cullinane who first ran in 2002. He managed 6.3% of the vote in 2002 and this remained pretty static in 2007 with a modest increase of .4%. According to the national opinion polls, Sinn Fein are polling 12% in both the Red C and Millward Brown Lansdowne polls. Sinn Fein were polling at 7% prior to the 2007 election so their performance in Waterford back then mirrored the national polls. Brian O’Shea was elected with 11% of first preference votes in 2007, so Sinn Fein would be fairly confident of mounting a serious challenge for a seat if they can keep up that level of that performance. A spanner in the works is SF’s performance in the Local Elections where his vote collapsed by a massive 50% and fellow Councillor Joe Kelly lost his seat, signalling a decline in support for the party in Waterford City. However, they remain strong in Dungarvan where Brendan Mansfield has proved to be both a popular and a hardworking Councillor and will be hoping a strong showing in the County will be enough to fend off the efforts of the real unknown quantity in this election – John Halligan.

I call John Halligan the real unknown quantity in this election because of the series of developments surrounding him since ran in the last General Election in 2007 for the Worker’s Party. Firstly, he left the Worker’s Party shortly after the General Election and announced his intention to run as an Independent in the 2009 local election and topped the poll in. As a result of topping the poll, he was elected Mayor of Waterford City for the 09/10 term. It’s what he achieved during his term and how this will affect his vote in the General Election that is proving very difficult to gauge for any commentator or analyst. Called the “People’s Mayor”, John is said to have been the most popular Mayor the City has ever seen and the impact that John will make on the polls this Friday will all depend on how far-reaching and how long-lasting an impression his Mayoralty has made on the people of not just Waterford City but of the greater Waterford constituency. John will need to triple his vote of 1,700 in 2007 to be in with any sort of chance which sounds extraordinary but John knows well that this is an extraordinary election.

The above candidates are the main players in this election, but lets not forget the 8 other candidates. Straight off the bat, none of them have any chance of being elected. It’s interesting to try figure out where the votes that will be going to the Independents and the smaller parties will come from. Tom Higgins resigned from Fine Gael so he could run in this election. Funnily enough, he has come out to say he would support Fine Gael in Government so his decision to run seems to be egotistically motivated rather than ideologically. He will take a few votes here and there from the Fine Gael candidates but they’ll quickly be transferred back upon his elimination with a small percentage haemorrhaging to Labour or Sinn Fein instead.

Joe Tobin is flying the Worker’s Party flag this time around, they had a total of 1,500 votes across all wards in the local elections but he will struggle to get even a third of this in the City and the Worker’s Party name means nothing past the City boundaries. His votes will transfer between Ryan, Halligan and Cullinane – the three left-wing City candidates with former WP member Halligan probably gaining the most from them.

Ben Nutty, a Trinity Economics graduate, is running for Fis Nua. He is a former Green Party member here in Waterford and this won’t sit well with those who opposed to Greens term in Government. Seeing NUTTY, Ben on the ballot paper also won’t do him many favours. His transfers will probably all go to Jody Power, the sole Green party candidate with a few transferring to other Independents too. Jody will poll better than Ben and transfers might give Jody an extended life but he will be the first of the candidates from a well established party to be eliminated and if history is to repeat itself, will transfer to Labour.

Justin Collery is the candidate who is clinging onto the coattails of the Fintan O’Toole and David McWilliams approach to politics. He will poll quite well with the media coverage he has attracted but ultimately will struggle to break into 4 figures. His votes will come at the expense of everyone but will transfer back to them when he is eliminated as this is a strategy he has been advocating.

Joe Conway is a Tramore based Independent who will pick up a decent chunk of Brian O’Sheas personal vote. His transfers will ultimately benefit the other main Independent John Halligan and possibly Ciara Conway of Labour who was born there.

Declan Waters is a pro-life Christian Democrat and along with Gerard Kiersey, the last candidate to declare, will be the first two candidates to be eliminated.

Tomorrow, I’ll try dissect exactly how the votes will breakdown.

As a teaser, the scenario I'll be exploring is the one that I think has the greatest possibility of happening i.e. 2 FG, 1 LAB, 1 SF/Ind. I will give my reasoning tomorrow

jonnyfingers

What's the story with getting into the count on Saturday. I presume it's open to a certain number of the public. Any idea what time it opens at?

nkay1985

jonnyfingers wrote: »

What's the story with getting into the count on Saturday. I presume it's open to a certain number of the public. Any idea what time it opens at?

Don't think it's open to the public. Think each candidate gets a number of passes. Other groups might get some too. Could be wrong on that though.

I've gotten in with Dad the last few times so am going to see if that's possible again.

AdMMM

Each candidate gets 10 tickets which they can give to whoever they want, if someone is leaving they can give their ticket to someone else who can then get in.

fitzcoff

If there is anyone going to be at the count or can access the info will they post here if at all possible.

Would love to be going, have been in Dungarvan for the last 2 local elections and a great atmosphere.

Deise Tom

If Seamus Ryan. David Culliane or John Halligan is elected after tomorrow's vote, who if anyone is lined up to replace them on the council. I know if its Ryan or Cullinane it will be someone from Labour and Sinn Fein that will be brought in, but how do they pick an independent to replace Halligan. Will he get to say who is co-opted in his place.

old gregg

AdMMM wrote: »

Each candidate gets 10 tickets which they can give to whoever they want, if someone is leaving they can give their ticket to someone else who can then get in.

Do you think it worthwhile to stroll down on spec and try and score a ticket? I've never been to a count before so figure this may the time I give it a go.

Trotter

If anyone would like to donate a pass this way I'd be delighted!!

ziedth

fitzcoff wrote: »

If there is anyone going to be at the count or can access the info will they post here if at all possible.

Would love to be going, have been in Dungarvan for the last 2 local elections and a great atmosphere.

+1 to this I'm sure the whole fourm would appreciate it.

nkay1985

Deise Tom wrote: »

If Seamus Ryan. David Culliane or John Halligan is elected after tomorrow's vote, who if anyone is lined up to replace them on the council. I know if its Ryan or Cullinane it will be someone from Labour and Sinn Fein that will be brought in, but how do they pick an independent to replace Halligan. Will he get to say who is co-opted in his place.

Was just thinking about this last night. I presume Halligan would be able to nominate anyone to take his place. Don't know who he'd put in though.

Deise Tom

nkay1985 wrote: »

Was just thinking about this last night. I presume Halligan would be able to nominate anyone to take his place. Don't know who he'd put in though.

Any of his family intersted in Politics, Kids, Wife, Siblings.

Sully

I think its worth mentioning that it would be unfair not to vote for any candidate in this election purely because they didn't spend time each day to answer queries on Boards. Most candidates in the election prefer to go out and visit people on the door steps, with a bit of interaction over Facebook. Most people prefer personal interaction on the doors.

Its mostly Independent candidates that tend to use Boards because they don't go door-to-door as much, if at all. With the exception of the Green Party in the local elections IIRC.

Look beyond their online usage folks when voting - vote on their policies and ability to preform well in the Dail.

old gregg

ah Sully you're just saying that 'cos your man Coffey never came on here and promised us Boards users 'preferential treatment' once the election is over
:D:D

decies

Right vote well and wisely tomorrow little ones. And do make an effort with your 1234etc ,transfers will be more vital tomorrow in waterford than for a long time,so as ye fall asleep think about who your voting for . Enjoy and we shall see everybody back here for the post election coverage,and everybody will be friends again

ziedth

I must say I'm genuinely going to miss this thread and election buzz around the fourm. Actually, when will the results/counting be?

deisemum

I'm going to vote early before someone uses my vote, this happened to someone I know in Tramore. She went to vote but someone had already used her vote so she couldn't vote.

fitzcoff

deisemum wrote: »

I'm going to vote early before someone uses my vote, this happened to someone I know in Tramore. She went to vote but someone had already used her vote so she couldn't vote.

How was that possible?

babystrawberry

deisemum wrote: »

I'm going to vote early before someone uses my vote, this happened to someone I know in Tramore. She went to vote but someone had already used her vote so she couldn't vote.

WTF?? how could that happen ..is this chinese whispers getting out of hand??

deisemum

I don't know how it happened, she didn't know either but she couldn't vote.

ziedth

Surely just a mistake? The only other explanation is that someone was trying to rig it.

Deise Tom

deisemum wrote: »

I'm going to vote early before someone uses my vote, this happened to someone I know in Tramore. She went to vote but someone had already used her vote so she couldn't vote.

Thats kind of hard to believe.

fricatus

Sure they just get a big ruler and draw a line through your name... easy for someone to make a mistake. I doubt it was DR Congo-style vote rigging!

deisemum

ziedth wrote: »

Surely just a mistake? The only other explanation is that someone was trying to rig it.

That could be the reason as she's been canvassing for someone and when she was going in to vote someone that had been canvassing for another candidate was smirking at her and the same when she was coming back out after finding out she couldn't vote but as she said she couldn't prove it.

nkay1985

deisemum wrote: »

That could be the reason as she's been canvassing for someone and when she was going in to vote someone that had been canvassing for another candidate was smirking at her and the same when she was coming back out after finding out she couldn't vote but as she said she couldn't prove it.

But the only way they could have done that would have been to have that girl's polling card as saying her name and not having photo ID to match wouldn't have worked. Seems unlikely that someone could have managed to pull it off. More likely the polling officer crossed out the wrong person on the list when someone else voted earlier and it was just a coincidence that the other one was smirking at her. Either way, I wouldn't worry too much about it tbh.

old gregg

deisemum wrote: »

I'm going to vote early before someone uses my vote, this happened to someone I know in Tramore. She went to vote but someone had already used her vote so she couldn't vote.

Identity theft. Happens all he time. Probably found that her credit cards had been maxed out and there was someone living in her house when she got home ....

nkay1985

No sign of the second part of Adam's blog where he's going to talk numbers. Interested to see what he thinks.

Smiley Burnett

ziedth wrote: »

+1 to this I'm sure the whole fourm would appreciate it.

Ill be down at the count all day? Is there internet access in the Butler Community Centre??

ziedth

nkay1985 wrote: »

No sign of the second part of Adam's blog where he's going to talk numbers. Interested to see what he thinks.

Keep an eye on facebook,

His first part went up there a good while before here.

jonnyfingers

I shall be voting first thing in the morning, after work and before going to bed. Very exciting. Would love to see 1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 SF and 1 Ind get it. A right mix, and most importantly, no FF!