Waterford Election 2011

jmcc

And the movie on Sky 1 tonight is "Happy Gilmore". Strange.

Regards...jmcc

Gardner

with 3 city boxes not tallied, i think you could add about 500 to halligan, 3 big areas of his, Mount Sion, Mercey Convent and Ballygunner!

conway cullinane and halligan all about 5500

AdMMM

I'm currently tallying cullinanes second preferences and massive amounts going to Halligan.

jasond123

The tramore boxes are going to make or break it.

Ciara Conway's polling strongly in tramore boxes at ryan's expense, transfers from tramore/dungarvan independents could well see her over the line for the final seat.

Gardner

AdMMM wrote: »

I'm currently tallying cullinanes second preferences and massive amounts going to Halligan.

dont count ur chickens yet adam! goignt o be very close!

nkay1985

How far off from the first count being finished are we?

MagicMcGrath

Anybody know the views atm from Lab, SF and Halligan? All still in bar Ryan I think. He'll be extremely disappointed with that and I'm quite shocked at his figures....

dayshah

MagicMcGrath wrote: »

Anybody know the views atm from Lab, SF and Halligan? All still in bar Ryan I think. He'll be extremely disappointed with that and I'm quite shocked at his figures....

I suppose there were 3 city left-wing candidates in the running, Halligan, Ryan, and Cullinane, but only one county left-wing candidate in the running.

ziedth

MagicMcGrath wrote: »

Anybody know the views atm from Lab, SF and Halligan? All still in bar Ryan I think. He'll be extremely disappointed with that and I'm quite shocked at his figures....

Someone mentioned it way back the thread but I wonder does that fact Conway is the only Lady Running actually make a difference with it? I thought Ryan would be right up there.

nkay1985

MagicMcGrath wrote: »

Anybody know the views atm from Lab, SF and Halligan? All still in bar Ryan I think. He'll be extremely disappointed with that and I'm quite shocked at his figures....

Nothing official but I think you're right to not discount anyone except Ryan. I agreed with the RTE reporter when she said the FF people would have been much happier if Kenneally Had managed 15% or 16%. he'd be home and dry with that but can't be sure at the moment, especially if national transfer patterns bear out in Waterford.

AdMMM

Conway looks safe at this point. Kenneally and Halligan look to be fighting for last seat!

Make A Stand

I wouldn't be too happy if I was in Kenneally camp!!!

If Ryan does go out and Ciara Conway gets a seat, that leaves Halligan, Cullinane and Kenneally scrapping it out for last seat..

Anything could happen with transfers!!

KevIRL

AdMMM wrote: »

Conway looks safe at this point. Kenneally and Halligan look to be fighting for last seat!

One time counters please!

jmcc

From RTE:

1505 Waterford: Final tally - Fine Gael are poised to take two seats in Waterford, which put outgoing TD John Deasy at 20.22% and Senator Paudie Coffey at 17.79%.

Outgoing Fianna Fáil TD Brendan Kenneally may not get sufficient transfers to hold his seat.

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Regards...jmcc

nkay1985

AdMMM wrote: »

Conway looks safe at this point. Kenneally and Halligan look to be fighting for last seat!

There's just over 4,000 votes in total to be transferred until we get to Ryan being eliminated so I wouldn't assume anything just yet but you'd think she'd be safe. Labour are showing as transfer friendly nationally, as are FG, so Coffey still being in will help Kenneally.

jmcc

@RTEWaterford

Final tallies for #wd- FG DEASY20%, COFFEY17.8%, FF KENNEALLY 13.9% LAB CONWAY 10.3%, LAB RYAN 8.6% SF CULLINANE10%, IND HALLIGAN10% #ge11
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This might not end well for Keneally or Ryan.


Regards...jmcc

mike65

I can only imagine they'll be a lot of shouting in Labour Party office in Waterford tonight.

decies

Pure greed on labour running two canditates,i just hope they dont let the unmentionable in by the back door!!!

BlaasForRafa

decies wrote: »

Pure greed on labour running two canditates,i just hope they dont let the unmentionable in by the back door!!!

I think if Brian O'Shea had been running then they may have pulled it off, especially with an O'Shea/Conway ticket but without his name recognition and personal vote they were always going to struggle. Not greed but poor decision making I'd say.

AdMMM

Interesting voting pattern emerging in sf second preferences. Few votes going kenneally 2, Halligan 3. That reads to me like sf supporters voting against John out of spite. If Keneally is elected, one factor could be this.

Gardner

Waterford will return 2fg 1 ff and 1 lab!

transfers have killed halligan! that coming from guys on the inside! halligan is not been transfer friendly!

hard luck john!

dayshah

decies wrote: »

Pure greed on labour running two canditates,i just hope they dont let the unmentionable in by the back door!!!

Why? They are very likely to get Conway in. So they end up with the same result as if they just ran one.

I don't want Kenneally to get in, but its Labour's job to get Labour candidates in, not keep FF out.

nkay1985

AdMMM wrote: »

Interesting voting pattern emerging in sf second preferences. Few votes going kenneally 2, Halligan 3. That reads to me like sf supporters voting against John out of spite. If Keneally is elected, one factor could be this.

They would surely go Labour 2 if they wanted to do that.

It is strange though.

jasond123

Looks like Ryan is to be kingmaker for the final seat....his transfers aren't heading Kennelly's way...

Margarmur

Make A Stand wrote: »

I wouldn't be too happy if I was in Kenneally camp!!!

If Ryan does go out and Ciara Conway gets a seat, that leaves Halligan, Cullinane and Kenneally scrapping it out for last seat..

Anything could happen with transfers!!

I reckon if that happens the fianna fail camp will be happy. Cullinane picked up alot of vote in the county and Halligan is not known in the county (polled very badly there) reckon the vote will come back to brendan. Alot of ff vote went to sinn fein or fg

mike65

dayshah wrote: »

Why? They are very likely to get Conway in. So they end up with the same result as if they just ran one.

Had they run a single candidate, said candidate would have polled over 15% of the first preference vote easily and got the 2nd or third seat comfortably, as it stands if it all goes tits-up they could lose out to FF and SF. Its only the fact they are both transfer unfriendly that will stop that (probably).

nkay1985

Margarmur wrote: »

I reckon if that happens the fianna fail camp will be happy. Cullinane picked up alot of vote in the county and Halligan is not known in the county (polled very badly there) reckon the vote will come back to brendan. Alot of ff vote went to sinn fein or fg

This is a much better explanation for what Adam was saying about SF transferring to FF.

AdMMM

But why put Halligan 3? They look to be city ballot papers

nkay1985

AdMMM wrote: »

But why put Halligan 3? They look to be city ballot papers

Yeah it is strange so. But wouldn't make any sense to go with Kenneally instead of Ryan or Conway. Who knows.

AdMMM

Definitely seeing far too many sf votes go to FF for my liking.