Waterford Election 2011

BlaasForRafa

Smiley Burnett wrote: »

I reckon FF will just stand Brendan Kenneally. That would certainly guarantee a seat.

Anyone that votes for that waste of space should be shot.

Deise Tom

Smiley Burnett wrote: »

I reckon FF will just stand Brendan Kenneally. That would certainly guarantee a seat.

Dont know about Guaranteed a seat. If FF were to get a seat in Waterford it could well be the last one and without having reached the quota. Only mentioned Pat Daly because someother poster said no one new was interested in running. From the way Pat was talking on WLR recently he seems to be interested but it would seem to be it depends on what way the leadership vote goes.

Sully

Told today by someone else that would be in the know more so then your general joe soap that its just Kennealy running as it stands. The convention is Friday.

Sully

AdMMM wrote: »

I had to Google Pat Daly and was brought to a page of a Fianna Fail Councillor in Co. Clare. Is that the same Pat Daly you're referring to? If it is, I'd have serious reservations of him being described as new and fresh and the very fact you have to search as far as Co. Clare for someone to spring to your mind speaks volume as far your party's reputation is concerned here in Waterford.

Pat Daly is a County Councillor here in Waterford, secured one of the last seats IIRC. Was between him and a FG candidate.

Max Powers

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

Anyone that votes for that waste of space should be shot.

i bags pulling the trigger, What a f-ing waste of space Keneally has been.

nkay1985

Sully wrote: »

Told today by someone else that would be in the know more so then your general joe soap that its just Kennealy running as it stands. The convention is Friday.

Seems like total insanity if they run two. Although you can see their thinking; run a city and a county candidate and hope that eliminations fall their way so that one of them could get in on transfers.

wfman

In waterford east for the local elections FF ran 4 candidates and won the last seat.
They always run 3 in waterford for a general election but i think they'll go with two candidates this time.

Deise Tom

nkay1985 wrote: »

Seems like total insanity if they run two. Although you can see their thinking; run a city and a county candidate and hope that eliminations fall their way so that one of them could get in on transfers.

Agree fully about running the two. Dont know why a city/county thing should come into it if the person chosen was good enough or seen to be good enough by enough people in the city and the county. Both Deasy and Coffey for example should pole well in both the city and county as they are seen as strong canditates by most. The same cant be said for example for say Halligan and Tobin, your man in the workers party. They may have support in the city but outside the city they are unknowns. Halligan for example as he has done can say he visited Dungarvan and Tramore, but there is more that these areas to the county which he has to get to know and be got to known if he wants to be elected.

Seamus Ryan seems to be a favourite in the city and is getting into the Tramore area, but outside of these areas who knows about him. Ciara Conway may be known in Abbeyside and Dungarvan but if she crossed the square in Dungarvan with people from outside of these areas she would harld be recognised. Most i am sure would have know Brian O'Shea if he crossed the square with you, and may have voted for him as he was known. with Ryan and Conway unknown to too many they may not get as much of O'Shea's personal vote which they would like to think they could get.

It might be fair to say that David Cullinane may not be that well known in the west of the county and maybe outside of the city in the whole but people like Brendan Mansfield who have had good votes in the County and Dungarvan Town Council elections in the past two local elections might be able to swing him a fair amount of votes. The SF councillor in Tramore area might also be able to do like wise. However SF have no councillors in the Suir or Lismore areas and therefore he might loose votes in these areas.

Brendan Kenneally from what i read on here is not very popular in the city area but is fairly popular in the county. The Suir and Lismore electorate areas for local elections are fairly strong FF and FG areas when it comes to casting votes and he could do well in these areas if FF had only one canditate. Running two might see them loose votes as transfers might not go their way.

Smiley Burnett

Deise Tom wrote: »

Agree fully about running the two. Dont know why a city/county thing should come into it if the person chosen was good enough or seen to be good enough by enough people in the city and the county. Both Deasy and Coffey for example should pole well in both the city and county as they are seen as strong canditates by most. The same cant be said for example for say Halligan and Tobin, your man in the workers party. They may have support in the city but outside the city they are unknowns. Halligan for example as he has done can say he visited Dungarvan and Tramore, but there is more that these areas to the county which he has to get to know and be got to known if he wants to be elected.

Seamus Ryan seems to be a favourite in the city and is getting into the Tramore area, but outside of these areas who knows about him. Ciara Conway may be known in Abbeyside and Dungarvan but if she crossed the square in Dungarvan with people from outside of these areas she would harld be recognised. Most i am sure would have know Brian O'Shea if he crossed the square with you, and may have voted for him as he was known. with Ryan and Conway unknown to too many they may not get as much of O'Shea's personal vote which they would like to think they could get.

It might be fair to say that David Cullinane may not be that well known in the west of the county and maybe outside of the city in the whole but people like Brendan Mansfield who have had good votes in the County and Dungarvan Town Council elections in the past two local elections might be able to swing him a fair amount of votes. The SF councillor in Tramore area might also be able to do like wise. However SF have no councillors in the Suir or Lismore areas and therefore he might loose votes in these areas.

Brendan Kenneally from what i read on here is not very popular in the city area but is fairly popular in the county. The Suir and Lismore electorate areas for local elections are fairly strong FF and FG areas when it comes to casting votes and he could do well in these areas if FF had only one canditate. Running two might see them loose votes as transfers might not go their way.

Your analysis is spot on Tom!!!

Trotter

Going back to basics, lets not forget we were denied the opportunity to vote at all because of FF's self centred, self serving decision. The dogs in the street know that it was done to maintain their Dáil numbers, and any talk of it being a 'distraction' was and is utter rubbish spouted by those within FF who gained by not having the election.

I look forward to mentioning that to the first FFer to darken my doorstep.

nkay1985

Trotter wrote: »

Going back to basics, lets not forget we were denied the opportunity to vote at all because of FF's self centred, self serving decision. The dogs in the street know that it was done to maintain their Dáil numbers, and any talk of it being a 'distraction' was and is utter rubbish spouted by those within FF who gained by not having the election.

I look forward to mentioning that to the first FFer to darken my doorstep.

Absolutely. How long were we without a representative that we're entitled to because they couldn't afford to lose the by-electoin? They're a joke of a party. I think anyone standing from the is a disgrace and anyone voting for them is seriously misguided.

ziedth

It is a question of who else though, like it'll be a cold day in he'll before I vote FF again but I'm a truly undecided voter regarding the rest of the parties/candidates.

nkay1985

ziedth wrote: »

It is a question of who else though, like it'll be a cold day in he'll before I vote FF again but I'm a truly undecided voter regarding the rest of the parties/candidates.

Then let them try to get your vote. Weigh up all the options and pick who you agree with most. You won't be able to move for all the information that'll be out there in the next few weeks so can make a well-informed decision.

Trotter

ziedth wrote: »

It is a question of who else though, like it'll be a cold day in he'll before I vote FF again but I'm a truly undecided voter regarding the rest of the parties/candidates.

I'd say many people in Waterford are thinking the same because there doesn't seem to be a lot of information yet about the candidates. There isn't a 'heavy hitter' among them.

I think we need to realise that to figure out 'who else' to vote for takes analysis, considered thought, and questioning. It was too easy to see Bertie's swagger and think.. He looks the job, I'll vote for him. Many voted for the superficial hype that FF offered because it was the easy thing to do. Based on a false foundation created by FF and their friends, there was a feeling among many that we couldn't lose.

We're left with decisions now that require individuals to work to get right. Someone said to me yesterday "Kenny hasnt got it".. I asked what "it" was.. But there wasn't an answer.

We need to realise that its the shiney, arrogant, nod and wink, glinty toothed option that put us where we are.

Maybe it's time that every one of us takes our vote seriously (as I think that most people who post in this thread do) and accept our responsibilty to dig below the surface of every candidate and party to become fully informed.

Only then might we avoid the pit we're in now.

And if we choose a new party / parties to form the next government, and they are more of the same.. We throw them out too. Sooner or later, politicians will come around to realising that the price for unethical and poor performance in government is not a time in opposition, but a straight P45. When that happens, we have a chance.

nkay1985

Trotter for president!

Trotter

nkay1985 wrote: »

Trotter for president!

lol I'm a bit busy as it is.. and I've sorta run out of stuff to say.

nkay1985

Trotter wrote: »

lol I'm a bit busy as it is.. and I've sorta run out of stuff to say.

Ah just make that your stump speech. It'll play fairly well all over the country!

wfman

anybody see any betting prices in waterford yet?

Deise Tom

wfman wrote: »

anybody see any betting prices in waterford yet?

Just had a look at Paddy Powers website and nothing on there for Waterford. There is betting for - Carlow/Kilkenny, Cavan/Monaghan, Clare, Cork North, Donegal South West, Dublin Central, Dublin North, Dublin North East, Dublin North West, Dublin South, Dublin South Central, Dublin South East, Dublin South West, Dublin West, Dun Laoghaire, Galway West, Kildare North, Kildare South, Limerick City, Longford/Westmeath, Meath East, Meath West, Tipperary North, Wicklow, Kerry North and Kerry South constituencies.

As expected FF are going to experience losses according to the bookies. They are also saying things will be closer than most might expect. Unless my adding is wrong there is 104 seats to be filled in these areas.

It looks as if Fine Gael will take 34, Labour 31, Fianna Fail 20, Sinn Fein and Independents 8 each, Socialist Party 2, People Before Profit 1.

If as it looks in these figures very little could seperate Fine Gael and Labour, and neither has enough to form a government on their own, what is the chances of they agreeing to go in together. There could be lots of arguments as to how many cabinet seats each should get, and what party should get the more high profile portfolios. If they cant agree who will form the government. Eamon Guilmore has said he wont go into power with Fianna Fail, I doubt any of them will want to be involved with Sinn Fein, and from what we have seen in recent years, will any party want the independents supporting them.

Maybe we could have agreement between some parties but i would be reckoning that the next government could be a short lived one going on the figures above.

PeterIanStaker

Tawdy and Howdoo for the Dail.

Daysha

According to Fianna Fail's Twitter just Brendan Kenneally is running. Smart enough move by them tbh, if all the counties die-hard FF lump their votes on him he might just about hang on. Would need a load of 1st prefs though.

wfman

FF waving the white flag here.

Gael23

Its a smart move by them. They know if they run another candidate and split the vote they could well lose the seat.

wfman

They have had 2 seats in waterford for a while.im suprised that they have only one candidate.

Trotter

Damage limitation on a national scale by FF. They're banking on the hope of 1 seat knowing full well they won't get 2.

mike65

Some fall isn't it? 47% of the first preference vote last time out.

nkay1985

mike65 wrote: »

Some fall isn't it? 47% of the first preference vote last time out.

Maybe they think Waterford people have finally copped themselves on. Hopefully we can remove the 4 from the front of that figure this time around!

ziedth

I honestly think they will do better then expected down here. I hate the saying but the amount of Parish Pump politics in the county is sickening. I hope I'm wrong and the percentage is closer to 7% then 47%.

mike65

Well with a single candidate they won't get anymore than 20% tops.

Trotter

ziedth wrote: »

I honestly think they will do better then expected down here. I hate the saying but the amount of Parish Pump politics in the county is sickening. I hope I'm wrong and the percentage is closer to 7% then 47%.

I'd have to agree. Theres a danger that despite being given the two fingers by FF for the last while, the old "ah me Grandad voted FF and so did me father" will come out.

Theres also a hell of a lot of blind loyalty to FF 'Personalities'. Theres an irony in people refusing to break the FF voting code for the sake of 'honesty and loyalty' to the FF fella who'll "Look after ya"..

Id love to see Waterford standing up tall this time, I really would. It'd give us such a boost to find our voice.. new TDs, a message to the old guard that we've grown out of it, and the positivity and economic boost of the tall ships and some summer weather to send us on our way.