Waterford Election 2011

AdMMM

The only place I can see Brendan Kenneally polling above average is in Dunmore. His vote will be decimated in the City although the only main party to run a City based candidate is Labour in Seamus Ryan, so some past FF voters may not see a viable alternative and continue to vote FF although some may look towards Independents.

comeraghs

Do you reckon John Halligan has any chance of getting in?

AdMMM

Having three sitting councillors from the same ward contesting wouldnt be ideal for him but if he gets enough first preference votes, he will do very well from surplus transfers from FG (I believe both Coffey and deasy will reach quotas in either first or second counts) and will also transfer well from eliminated left-leaning candidates.

I don't think any commentator will be able to call the Waterford constituency until the very last moment as there are far too many unique circumstances surrounding the elections nationally, as well as locally. Firstly, the SF candidate saw his vote halved in the local elections, when they were expecting an increase. The labour candidates aren't the parties preferred candidates. The fianna fail candidate only barely scraped in last time and their strategy and approach this election has been turned on it's head.

The likes of Shane Ross and Fintan O'Toole have contributed to the surge in popularity in recent opinion polls of independents which will benefit John (and other Independents) in areas that are hard for them to canvass or may not be well known.

With all that being said, the election battle hasn't even started yet!

Deise Tom

comeraghs wrote: »

Do you reckon John Halligan has any chance of getting in?

You can never say never, but lets hope he is not. If ever there would be parish Pump Politics in the Dail it would be if he was elected. From the Butlerstown From the new bridge to the gates of Ardkeen and all inside it would be represented and a case of sod the rest maybe with the exception of a small distance out the Dunmore/Passage road from Ardkeen. When he talks of Waterford any time he is on the radio, even when he has mentioned that he would be running in the election he only talks about the city. I know it could be down to the fact that this is the area he lives and knows best, but anyone remotly interested in standing in the election should be talking of Waterford as a whole and not a small area of it, even if it is the area with the biggest population centre.

Deise Tom

AdMMM wrote: »

The fianna fail candidate only barely scraped in last time

I know times have changed and any FF candidate is going to be running up against a brick wall this time round, but last time would it be fair to say that you had 3 people trying to scrape from two barrels and as a result one may have been taking from the other and therefore might not have done as well as they would have liked when it came to first preference votes. Maybe an exception could have been made for Martin Cullen who was almost guaranteed his seat last time round as were Deasy and O'Shea.

fricatus

Deise Tom wrote: »

...anyone remotly interested in standing in the election should be talking of Waterford as a whole and not a small area of it, even if it is the area with the biggest population centre.

I understand how Halligan's concentration on the east of the county doesn't sit well with people in the west of the county, but from a work-versus-reward perspective, it does actually make sense.

60% of the constituency's population lives in the city and the Tramore electoral area (Census 2007: city 45,775, Tramore area 18,938 = 64,713 out of a county population of 107,942).

If you were a candidate with limited resources, it would make more sense to concentrate on the 60% urban population rather than the dispersed rural dwellers.

It's also probably more likely that the rural vote will be more decided, whereas the urban vote (especially in Halligan's core areas like Lisduggan, Ballybeg and Kilcohan), is more likely to have suffered from a low turnout in the past.

If he can motivate 1 in 10 in those three areas (population 15,000) who have never voted before to get out and cast their ballot for him, he will double his first preferences. Couple that with a general move towards independents, and he could be looking at 5,000 first preferences - final seat territory.

Not saying that that's what's going to happen, but any campaign manager worth his or her salt is going to tell Halligan that there's a lot more "low hanging fruit" for him in the city.

Gardner

fricatus wrote: »

I understand how Halligan's concentration on the east of the county doesn't sit well with people in the west of the county, but from a work-versus-reward perspective, it does actually make sense.

60% of the constituency's population lives in the city and the Tramore electoral area (Census 2007: city 45,775, Tramore area 18,938 = 64,713 out of a county population of 107,942).

If you were a candidate with limited resources, it would make more sense to concentrate on the 60% urban population rather than the dispersed rural dwellers.

It's also probably more likely that the rural vote will be more decided, whereas the urban vote (especially in Halligan's core areas like Lisduggan, Ballybeg and Kilcohan), is more likely to have suffered from a low turnout in the past.

If he can motivate 1 in 10 in those three areas (population 15,000) who have never voted before to get out and cast their ballot for him, he will double his first preferences. Couple that with a general move towards independents, and he could be looking at 5,000 first preferences - final seat territory.

Not saying that that's what's going to happen, but any campaign manager worth his or her salt is going to tell Halligan that there's a lot more "low hanging fruit" for him in the city.

totally agree with this, spot on!
if Halligan does poll around the 4,500 - 5,000 and is ahead or just below Sinn Fein by 500 votes then the seat is his.
reason why,
Halligan will probably have the best transfer % when it comes down to it! (ULA WP IND). if it comes down to the last seat with 2 fg and 1 lab already elected and its between Halligan, sf and ff, with sf been eliminated and Cullinanes votes been distributed say about 4000-5000 then i do believe 40% of his votes will go to Halligan when at most id say ff will take about 10%

i said it before and will say it again, there will be recounts in Waterford!

Smiley Burnett

kenneally will romp home, in spite of backlash against ff!
deasy and coffey should do the business for fg

last seat between ryan and cullinane---Ryan to take it

easy peasy

ziedth

Smiley Burnett wrote: »

kenneally will romp home, in spite of backlash against ff!
deasy and coffey should do the business for fg

last seat between ryan and cullinane---Ryan to take it

easy peasy

I'm far from an expert but this is how I see it going too. Like I said before I'm still very much undcided but somehow I can see it going the way of above.

Deise Tom

fricatus wrote: »

I understand how Halligan's concentration on the east of the county doesn't sit well with people in the west of the county, but from a work-versus-reward perspective, it does actually make sense.

60% of the constituency's population lives in the city and the Tramore electoral area (Census 2007: city 45,775, Tramore area 18,938 = 64,713 out of a county population of 107,942).

If you were a candidate with limited resources, it would make more sense to concentrate on the 60% urban population rather than the dispersed rural dwellers.

It's also probably more likely that the rural vote will be more decided, whereas the urban vote (especially in Halligan's core areas like Lisduggan, Ballybeg and Kilcohan), is more likely to have suffered from a low turnout in the past.

If he can motivate 1 in 10 in those three areas (population 15,000) who have never voted before to get out and cast their ballot for him, he will double his first preferences. Couple that with a general move towards independents, and he could be looking at 5,000 first preferences - final seat territory.

Not saying that that's what's going to happen, but any campaign manager worth his or her salt is going to tell Halligan that there's a lot more "low hanging fruit" for him in the city.

I take aboard what you say with the limited resources, the population etc, but you would think that when he does go on the radio or is talking to the local papers that he would mention other areas, the smaller rural areas and try and connect with them. I know it would be impossible for him or any of the canditates in the election to visit every house in Waterford, or even to expect any of them to do so, but when they (and expecially the likes of Halligan, Tobin {is that his name - Workers party chap}, the Lad with the Greens, and maybe even David Cullinane) are given a chance to speak to the electotate that they would do so to all and not just to a section. The likes of Deasy, Coffey, Kenneally and in the past O'Shea and Cullen when they were on the radio, tv, papers, they spoke to all whether we agreed with them or not, but some of the hopefulls in this election are not doing so, in my eyes and ears anyway.

Deise Tom

Smiley Burnett wrote: »

kenneally will romp home, in spite of backlash against ff!
deasy and coffey should do the business for fg

last seat between ryan and cullinane---Ryan to take it

easy peasy

Deasy and Coffey will get in, one of them reaching the quota maybe on the first count, Agree with Brendan Kenneally getting in but not romp home as you say, and i think that Cullinane will take the last seat.

We all know that FF are going to take a big hit at the ballot box this time round, but does anyone think they will do better than most are saying. They could well get in or around 50 seats, and play a major roll in who forms the next government, maybe even supporting a minority FG government. I think i heard Michael Martin as as much could happen the other day.

The only problem is how long a minority government will last. We could be set to go back to the days in the early 80's when we had election after election.

Sully

You wont see FG going into government with FF. Maybe Labour, but not FG. Only party which has been firm on this issue and not dodging it.

I think suggesting it is FF spin, because they think FG voters will throw their vote elsewhere to avoid FF in government.

Nadda gonna happen Tom and you know full well it wont

Deise Tom

Sully wrote: »

You wont see FG going into government with FF. Maybe Labour, but not FG. Only party which has been firm on this issue and not dodging it.

I think suggesting it is FF spin, because they think FG voters will throw their vote elsewhere to avoid FF in government.

Nadda gonna happen Tom and you know full well it wont

I did not say they were going to go into government together. I said FF could support FG in a minority government, just as FG did with FF when Alan Dukes was in charge.

Dr. Baltar

I reckon:

Deasy (FG)
Coffey (FG)
Ryan (Lab)
A fight between Cullinane, Halligan and Kenneally with the left transferring to each other. That last seat is anyone's.

nkay1985

If Kenneally does manage to get in then the people of Waterford are bigger fools than I thought. I can see how it could happen, given that they're sure to be in contention for the third or fourth seat but it's just disgraceful. How will they ever be taught a lesson if they only get a mild backlash?

Trotter

nkay1985 wrote: »

If Kenneally does manage to get in then the people of Waterford are bigger fools than I thought. I can see how it could happen, given that they're sure to be in contention for the third or fourth seat but it's just disgraceful. How will they ever be taught a lesson if they only get a mild backlash?

If he gets in then maybe we deserve to be ignored and treated like muck.. It sends the message that we're obedient and subservient, no matter what.

nkay1985

Trotter wrote: »

If he gets in then maybe we deserve to be ignored and treated like muck.. It sends the message that we're obedient and subservient, no matter what.

That it does. If it happens I'll be taking a good look at the analysis of the count because it'll be interesting to see where the die-hard Fianna Fáilers in Waterford are. If someone still votes for them this time around, they'll never change their vote.

Dr. Baltar

I see the only people voting for Fianna Fáil are actual Fianna Fáil members and the "shor he's a sound chap" and "my granny voted for him" idiots.

Smiley Burnett

15% gives kenneally in excess of 7000 votes!!! That's a guaranteed seat!!!

if ff starting heading up in opinion polls, kenneally will be a good bet to top the poll!!!

Deise Tom

Smiley Burnett wrote: »

15% gives kenneally in excess of 7000 votes!!! That's a guaranteed seat!!!

if ff starting heading up in opinion polls, kenneally will be a good bet to top the poll!!!

Thats not going to happen though is it.

wfman

The best result for waterford would be Deasy FG,Coffey FG,Halligan IND or Conway IND,Ryan LAB or Ciara Conway LAB.I hope waterford elects two FG one IND and one LAB.
My thinking on is that FG will be close to a majority.FG wont go into goverment with FF or Sinn Fein.FG will go into goverment with either a few Independents or Labour.
I would never vote for some of the above candidates under normal circumstances but this time i will to ensure waterford gets it fair share when it needs it most.
To make sure my vote keeps transferring if needed ill be voting
1.John halligan ind
2.joe conway ind
3.seamus ryan lab
4.ciara conway lab
5.paudie coffey fg
6.john deasy fg

slainte1

wfman wrote: »

The best result for waterford would be Deasy FG,Coffey FG,Halligan IND or Conway IND,Ryan LAB or Ciara Conway LAB.I hope waterford elects two FG one IND and one LAB.
My thinking on is that FG will be close to a majority.FG wont go into goverment with FF or Sinn Fein.FG will go into goverment with either a few Independents or Labour.
I would never vote for some of the above candidates under normal circumstances but this time i will to ensure waterford gets it fair share when it needs it most.
To make sure my vote keeps transferring if needed ill be voting
1.John halligan ind
2.joe conway ind
3.seamus ryan lab
4.ciara conway lab
5.paudie coffey fg
6.john deasy fg

Why would that be the best result for Waterford ? What will Joe Conway contribute ? He worked for years in Dunmore and yet few people from Dunmore will give him a vote. Despite the fact that he is a former National Teacher very few INTO members sing his praises.

AdMMM

I'm on my phone now so cant link to it, but Munster express opinion poll is very interesting! Possible wipe out of labour and FF polling very high at 18% which is very surprising! Cullinane looks set to continue his decline with the last seat looking to be between labour and Halligan based on my quick look!

AdMMM

Deasy FG 21%
Coffey FG 17%
Kenneally FF 18%
Halligan ind 12%
Ryan Lab 11%
Cullinane sf 9%
Conway lab 6%
conway ind 3%
tobin wp 3%

Turns out I can copy and paste

nkay1985

I wouldn't be too surprised if they're not far off as it stands. With that, I'd see John taking the last seat with transfers from Cullinane and picking up bits and pieces from everyone else.

No excess to speak of from either of the Fine Gaelers with the quota at 20%.

9% is actually an increase for Cullinane. Obviously not enough. Waterford usually mirrors the national percentages in terms of the SF vote so you could see another couple of percent on top of that again.

And the Labour vote isn't a wipeout or anything like it. It's actually an increase of 6%in Brian O'Shea's vote when combined with Ryan having the same percentage as O'Shea got last time out.

Unfortunately there's always going to be the chance that Kenneally will poll highly down here. We can only hope that he's transfer repellent if he does but if the numbers are like that, he'll take the third seat.

Where'd you find the info anyway Adam? Can't see it on the website after a quick glance. Does it say who carried out the poll or what the margin of error is?

AdMMM

Saw it on Politics.ie, would assume it was posted up by someone who was involved with the poll as the newspaper hasn't gone to print yet ( http://www.politics.ie/waterford/150213-munster-express-opinion-poll-result-31-01-11-a.html ) .

I think the outcome of this election will depend on where the surpluses of the elected FG members will be distributed to and that will be entirely random!

AdMMM

Some debate regarding the validity of the poll and its sources on the Politics.ie forum after clarification from The Munster that it's not theirs. Somewhat worryingly, The Munster say that they won't be commissioning any polls like they have traditionally which means we won't be having any locally commissioned and therefore more detailed polls to look at.

nkay1985

Yeah poll seems fake. Mad bastards!

I dokn't see FG surpluses having much of an impact. They'd have to poll above 20% each to have any surplus at all. They might do that but I reckon any surpluses will be of the order of the lowest eliminated candidate's transfers and will scatter around so can't see it deciding the election or anything.

wfman

slainte1 wrote: »

Why would that be the best result for Waterford ? What will Joe Conway contribute ? He worked for years in Dunmore and yet few people from Dunmore will give him a vote. Despite the fact that he is a former National Teacher very few INTO members sing his praises.

I think ive explained why i think this would be the best result for waterford.
slainte1 what would you think would be best result for waterford??

Deise Tom

AdMMM wrote: »

Deasy FG 21%
Coffey FG 17%
Kenneally FF 18%
Halligan ind 12%
Ryan Lab 11%
Cullinane sf 9%
Conway lab 6%
conway ind 3%
tobin wp 3%

Turns out I can copy and paste

Where did these figures come from.