Tropical Storm NICOLE

Su Campu

000
WTNT41 KNHC 281458
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED A
SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SURFACE
DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CUBA AND
TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. BY 48
HOURS...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR IN 72 HOURS OR SOONER AS THE MODELS
DEPICT A NEW BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CAROLINAS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 020/9. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE OCCURING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. IF THIS STRUCTURE PERSISTS...THE TRACK OF THE CENTER
WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT SINCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 20.6N 82.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 21.6N 81.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 23.5N 80.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 26.5N 80.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 31.0N 78.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

maquiladora

Su Campu

There have been 24hrs totals up to 90mm in Jamaica and Cuba overnight. Florida Keys is next...



000
WTNT41 KNHC 290857
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
500 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN HAS
CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM
KEY WEST AND MIAMI...ALONG WITH RADAR RADAR FROM CUBA INDICATE
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ALSO...AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FLYING BETWEEN FLORIDA AND
CUBA HAS INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF 33 KT IN UNCONTAMINATED SFMR
DATA ABOUT 80-120 NMI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH IS MUCH
CLOSER TO THE CENTER THAN SEEN NOTED IN PRIOR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RECON DATA. THE LARGEST DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY VALUES DETECTED
THUS FAR HAVE BEEN 40-44 KT BETWEEN 6000-12000 FT. THIS INDICATES
THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM.

THE DEPRESSION IS ON TRACK AND THE THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
020/12. 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
BEEN STEADILY BACKING AROUND FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
DIG SOUTHWARD DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED
ALONG 85W...THE FLOW ACROSS FLORIDA SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ACCELERATE THE DEPRESSION TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
TODAY...AND INTO THE CAROLINAS AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN 36 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
A LITTLE TO THE EAST IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE STRONG BACKING
FLOW PATTERN MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY ARGUES FOR KEEPING THE FORECAST
TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN OR LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN
EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 30 KT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. AS A
RESULT...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR PRIOR TO THE CYCLONE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST LATER TODAY. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN 24 HOURS OR SO AND BE COMPLETE
BY 36-48 HR AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WHERE IT
IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY 48 HOURS...THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER U. S. BAROCLINIC OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND
LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 23.3N 81.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 25.2N 80.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 28.9N 79.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 33.8N 78.6W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 01/0600Z 40.0N 77.3W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

maquiladora

Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT41 KNHC 291453
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED CLOSER TO THE CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION SINCE YESTERDAY.
ALSO...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHIP...BUOY...AND LAND OBSERVATIONS OF
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. BASED ON THE IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION AND THE SURFACE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER OF NICOLE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST
OF CUBA AROUND 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT THE
CYCLONE CORE CONSISTS OF A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS STILL OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. THE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL OR
NORTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY. THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS THEN FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. NICOLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE AS THE
EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT BECOMES THE DOMINANT EVENT. THE NEW NHC
TRACK IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS
DISSIPATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MUCH SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
PREDICTED. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SCENARIO...HOWEVER...
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

BASED ON THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR
FLORIDA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM NICOLE IS
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF JAMAICA AND
CUBA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 22.6N 80.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 24.7N 79.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 29.4N 78.4W 35 KT...POST-TROPICAL
36HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

thetonynator

worlds most boring tropical storm ever . . .