The Rise of the East...

KINGVictor

I was watching an interview on Bloomberg TV with James Wolfensohn, former World bank president.

Links Below:

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/62959558/

He surmised that there will be an economic shift from the west to the east in the next decade, basically in terms of GDP size ( as such, India and China will have 50% of the world's GDP compared to 1% after the second world war). He further added that India/ China and most of Asia will experience growth in their competitiveness relative to Europe and America with their the increase in population being a major factor.

One interesting fact he presented was that most of students in Western countries studying sciences and doing research in innovation are foreign-born notably from China. The major problem, however, this students upon graduation use the knowledege acquired as tools to compete or in some cases outclass the west-( which is reasonable and common sensical to say the least). He went as far saying that any sensible fellow will be learning the ways of these countries to have a competitive edge when the "inevitable" happens.


I have studied in colleges in Ireland and I can attest to the level of intelligence and innovativeness of the Irish academia and society.

My questions are:

• What can Ireland do to overcome these challenges?
• Do you think it is time to look beyond the US, UK, Australia and probably the EU in terms of strategic alliances for the future?

admiralofthefleet

cool story bro

starbelgrade

KINGVictor wrote: »

[*] What can Ireland do to overcome these challenges?

Be more like the Chinese;

- eat lots of rice
- whack yourself in the face with a wok
- squint
- pronounce all 'r's like 'l's.
- never go to the pub

Ronin247

Doesnt matter to us,they cannot f**k us any worse than our own useless incompetent government.Dont think you can lose your house under communism:D

Augmerson

I think I was reading somewhere that the US owes China billions, but if the Chinese were to call in these loans, it would cripple the US economy and the money they are owed we be worthless, all the while the US keeps asking for more money and the Chinese can't really say no, because if they did the US economy would collapse and they'd be missing alot of cash, not to mention stakes and assets in the US. I might be wrong though about all that, but it's sort of relevant.

southsiderosie

The international language of IT is English. Ireland has a huge advantage here.

If Ireland could make itself a more attractive place to launch start-ups, attract foreign students, and really foster a major technology cluster, then it might be able to take advantage of the kinds of transnational business exchanges with Asia that regions like Silicon Valley and Cambridge, MA do.

But I doubt this will happen. University funding is being cut, getting student visas for non-EU citizens is a nightmare, the bankruptcy process is a disgrace, and capital is limited. So Ireland will miss the boat.

starbelgrade wrote: »

Be more like the Chinese;

- eat lots of rice
- whack yourself in the face with a wok
- squint
- pronounce all 'r's like 'l's.
- never go to the pub

:mad:

BOOoooooooooo.

CiaranMT

Shoulda been put in politics if ya wanted decent answers :pac:

AckwelFoley

Augmerson wrote: »

I think I was reading somewhere that the US owes China billions, but if the Chinese were to call in these loans, it would cripple the US economy and the money they are owed we be worthless, all the while the US keeps asking for more money and the Chinese can't really say no, because if they did the US economy would collapse and they'd be missing alot of cash, not to mention stakes and assets in the US. I might be wrong though about all that, but it's sort of relevant.

The US is one of the biggest, if not the biggest single purchaser of chinese goods, its in their interest not to pull the rug out from under them

Sea Sharp

It was bound to happen eventually.

Do lig a maa.

There's a Cantonese phrase that you can all use to welcome our new Eastern overlords.

AckwelFoley

Sea Sharp wrote: »

It was bound to happen eventually.

Do lig a maa.

There's a Cantonese phrase that you can all use to welcome our new Eastern overlords.

I asked my mate from hong kong what you said..



he replied, "bless you, drink lemsip"

ejmaztec

Western industries have been shooting themselves and us in the feet for years, moving production to China and the far east in general, just to make as much money as they can. They don't seem to understand that when these eastern countries have mastered the technology, all the western companies will be dead in the water, and we'll be eating our own sh1t to survive.

Then we'll be the ones working for peanuts, and it'll start all over again.

Btwndeyes

admiralofthefleet wrote: »

cool story bro

Has this not been banned yet? seriously.

AckwelFoley

ejmaztec wrote: »

Western industries have been shooting themselves and us in the feet for years, moving production to China and the far east in general, just to make as much money as they can. They don't seem to understand that when these eastern countries have mastered the technology, all the western companies will be dead in the water, and we'll be eating our own sh1t to survive.

Then we'll be the ones working for peanuts, and it'll start all over again.

You are missing one crucial point.. innovation, china does not have it.

The west and of course Japan lead innovation, china make or copy it. The chinese are a prduction nation, they need not master our tec, they have already done that -they have however not got the same levels of innovation...

InTheTrees

snyper wrote: »

You are missing one crucial point.. innovation, china does not have it.

The west and of course Japan lead innovation, china make or copy it. The chinese are a prduction nation, they need not master our tec, they have already done that -they have however not got the same levels of innovation...

Thats exactly what they said about Japan in the 70's so there's no reason China cant follow Japan.

KINGVictor

CiaranMT wrote: »

Shoulda been put in politics if ya wanted decent answers :pac:

You are probably right, but with the level of uncertainty and the chorus of criticisms against the government and its policies - especially on AH, i reckoned i could do the impossible - ignite some meaningful conversation/ debate.

InTheTrees

Augmerson wrote: »

I think I was reading somewhere that the US owes China billions, but if the Chinese were to call in these loans, it would cripple the US economy and the money they are owed we be worthless, all the while the US keeps asking for more money and the Chinese can't really say no, because if they did the US economy would collapse and they'd be missing alot of cash, not to mention stakes and assets in the US. I might be wrong though about all that, but it's sort of relevant.

There's some interdependance there alright which is good.

However the huge difference in populations could make the US irrelevant in the future. With 3 billion people, China already has a middle class thats larger than the entire population of the US.

Augmerson

InTheTrees wrote: »

There's some interdependance there alright which is good.

However the huge difference in populations could make the US irrelevant in the future. With 3 billion people, China already has a middle class thats larger than the entire population of the US.

There's not 3 billion on China is there?! Jesus!

InTheTrees

KINGVictor wrote: »

• Do you think it is time to look beyond the US, UK, Australia and probably the EU in terms of strategic alliances for the future?

Maybe being on the west coast of the US makes it more immediate but where have you been sleeping?

China is already nipping at our heals. Its been exponentially growing for the last twenty years or so. Since they regained the economic powerhouse of Hong Kong and threw off the shackles of the industrial revolution they've been accelerating away from us at a steady pace.

Chinas GDP never even went negative during the recent financial meltdowns.

squod

Take out stews FTW. Betcha the Chinese are f'ing sick of having a chinese for dinner.

KINGVictor

snyper wrote: »

You are missing one crucial point.. innovation, china does not have it.

The west and of course Japan lead innovation, china make or copy it. The chinese are a prduction nation, they need not master our tec, they have already done that -they have however not got the same levels of innovation...

Thats true to some extent...China is helped by its relative huge population:

http://www.sourcingline.com/country-data/annual-university-graduates/

The arguement presented is that complacency and the lack of the acknowledgement that there is almost a (paradigmatic) shift in economics and eventually politics could be a problem.

In reference to the Japanese example, they have a system that differs from the west (admittedly) but contextually it mirrors essentials of the capitalist structure. China is far different, it is a state -controlled country trying to redefine the herself with selected positives of capitalism.

Stinicker

Both China and India really are not how cracked out to be they are. Both societys are abusing their workers in pure slavery and anything either Chinese or Indian designed and built is pure tatty crap. Both countries are heavily dependent on European and American innovators and are only glorified sweatshops for the west.

India can't even build the commonwealth games infrastructure and it collapses before the games.

southsiderosie

KINGVictor wrote: »

Thats true to some extent...China is helped by its relative huge population:

http://www.sourcingline.com/country-data/annual-university-graduates/

The arguement presented is that complacency and the lack of the acknowledgement that there is almost a (paradigmatic) shift in economics and eventually politics could be a problem.

In reference to the Japanese example, they have a system that differs from the west (admittedly) but contextually it mirrors essentials of the capitalist structure. China is far different, it is a state -controlled country trying to redefine the herself with selected positives of capitalism.

I think Chinese innovation is limited by their unwillingness to protect intellectual property. If you have a cool idea for something, why would you launch a start-up in China? And a lot of US manufacturers weer screwed when they built factories, hired Chinese managers, and after 6 months of learning, the Chinese managers left and opened their own factories making the same thing for less. Everyone told the Japanese they were nuts for not outsourcing to China, but they have been somewhat vindicated in this regard.

That said, I spent a month in Asia this summer and, man, the US is screwed.

Star Bingo

snyper wrote: »

You are missing one crucial point.. innovation, china does not have it.

The west and of course Japan lead innovation, china make or copy it. The chinese are a prduction nation, they need not master our tec, they have already done that -they have however not got the same levels of innovation...

other than that technology innovation has essentially run its course, they'll have been waiting in the wings watching the west pioneer practices in leaps n bounds through the 20th century now they can imitate n replicate. with lessons learned n people power to boot.. sorta scary innit indians and orientals looking down on the poor white folk in their decadent decaying abodes all retrospective n glum whilst they streak into the 21st century and beyond. biggest sea change imaginable, already see it taking shape in areas such as Delhi's Connaught Place n downtown Shanghai

when they get it together with self serving economies and cultures styled on the west but without much need for trade they'll pwn us n win the hearts n minds of our children, their females already have me by the balls so to speak and think of the resources getting chewed n spat out by billions. and the sheer scale of the pollution, ****in planet would implode at an accelerated rate

InTheTrees

Stinicker wrote: »

anything either Chinese or Indian designed and built is pure tatty crap.

ummm really?

Now pull the cover off your computer and tell me how many components are made in China.

Or how about your phone?

I think you'd be surprised.

InTheTrees

Star Bingo wrote: »

when they get it together with self serving economies and cultures styled on the west but without much need for trade they'll pwn us n win the hearts n minds of our children, their females already have me by the balls so to speak

Absolutely right. Yes, they're dependant on us now to buy their stuff but China is growing its middle class rapidly and soon domestic demand will outstrip international demand and thats the point when we're screwed.

(I agree about their women too!)

southsiderosie

Star Bingo wrote: »

other than that technology innovation has essentially run its course, they'll have been waiting in the wings watching the west pioneer practices in leaps n bounds through the 20th century now they can imitate n replicate. with lessons learned n people power to boot.. sorta scary innit indians and orientals looking down on the poor white folk in their decadent decaying abodes all retrospective n glum whilst they streak into the 21st century and beyond. biggest sea change imaginable, already see it taking shape in areas such as Delhi's Connaught Place n downtown Shanghai

What? On what are you basing this?

And India has a loooong way to go before it catches up with China, much less the West.

up for anything

Augmerson wrote: »

There's not 3 billion on China is there?! Jesus!

Yeah, some fool put it on China to win in the 2.30 at Newmarket tomorrow. :cool:

Star Bingo

southsiderosie wrote: »

What? On what are you basing this?

And India has a loooong way to go before it catches up with China, much less the West.

unbold technology! long way to go.. yes with india but the wheels r in motion and they're fairly open to western practices. their call centres will be replaced by IT en masse whilst multinationals relocate n our kids will be working the phones for companies based there! someday.. other than that i dunno just running my inkpen

ejmaztec

snyper wrote: »

You are missing one crucial point.. innovation, china does not have it.

The west and of course Japan lead innovation, china make or copy it. The chinese are a prduction nation, they need not master our tec, they have already done that -they have however not got the same levels of innovation...

China doesn't need to innovate at this stage, but when they have everything else completely sewn up, they'll be innovating till the cows come home.

Mrmoe

There will be a limit to the growth that China is showing now. Resource depletion and environmental destruction will come back to bite them in the ass. The large population gives them a competitive advantage. Increasing automation will level the playing field. Right now they have the clear advantage of abundant cheap labor.

MySelf56

Stinicker wrote: »

Both China and India really are not how cracked out to be they are. Both societys are abusing their workers in pure slavery and anything either Chinese or Indian designed and built is pure tatty crap. Both countries are heavily dependent on European and American innovators and are only glorified sweatshops for the west.

India can't even build the commonwealth games infrastructure and it collapses before the games.

Your iPod/iPhone to cloths you are wearing is manufactured either China or India. Show me one product (apart from boards ) you are using which is "Made in Ireland".

You have little generalist view on this, Jaguar and Landrover two premium brands owned by Indian company. China is owned big mining companies across the globe. We being thicko paying Anglo's 70 bn yoyo's because we are just gullible, mind you those loans will be played by even children. Thats called slavery..

Dudess

I'm watching Kung Fu Killer II at the moment - it's pretty good.

Stinicker

InTheTrees wrote: »

ummm really?

Now pull the cover off your computer and tell me how many components are made in China.

Or how about your phone?

I think you'd be surprised.

MySelf56 wrote: »

Your iPod/iPhone to cloths you are wearing is manufactured either China or India. Show me one product (apart from boards ) you are using which is "Made in Ireland".

You have little generalist view on this, Jaguar and Landrover two premium brands owned by Indian company. China is owned big mining companies across the globe. We being thicko paying Anglo's 70 bn yoyo's because we are just gullible, mind you those loans will be played by even children. Thats called slavery..

I am not questioning that they are made in China, however China or the Chinese are designing or innovating none of these, the designing and innovation is done in the West and the Chinese just build the things. Chinese products (which are Chinese Designed) are grossly inferior to the excellence that comes from the West and in particular Germany, who have a large part of their economy geared towards exporting to China and the Germans design that crappy phone and make the equipment that makes the phone and then take most of the profits from said phone leaving China with measly wages and the pollution from manufacturing.

China and India are just big bubbles really.

southsiderosie

Star Bingo wrote: »

unbold technology! long way to go.. yes with india but the wheels r in motion and they're fairly open to western practices. their call centres will be replaced by IT en masse whilst multinationals relocate n our kids will be working the phones for companies based there! someday.. other than that i dunno just running my inkpen

Um, I'm still not buying it. I spent August in Hong Kong talking to IT managers within MNCs, and they are getting more down on India by the minute. Their work habits are not comparable (i.e. in Hong Kong, London or New York, if there is a problem, everyone stays until it is fixed; in India they go home), they spend half of their time arguing with Indian vendors about why the software doesn't work and contract terms, the infrastructure outside of industrial parks is still terrible, yet the cost of living in a city like Mumbai is astronomical, the government bureaucracy is a nightmare, and only something like 5%% of their engineering graduates are skilled enough to work for an international company. East Asia and Singapore are still where it's at, and India will need decades to catch up. The recent Commonwealth Games fiasco is a perfect case in point: that NEVER would have happened in China, Hong Kong, Singapore or even Malaysia.

MySelf56

Stinicker wrote: »

I am not questioning that they are made in China, however China or the Chinese are designing or innovating none of these, the designing and innovation is done in the West and the Chinese just build the things. Chinese products (which are Chinese Designed) are grossly inferior to the excellence that comes from the West and in particular Germany, who have a large part of their economy geared towards exporting to China and the Germans design that crappy phone and make the equipment that makes the phone and then take most of the profits from said phone leaving China with measly wages and the pollution from manufacturing.

China and India are just big bubbles really.

Why do invent wheel again? Just mass produce and sell it cheaply. If they can't do India and China will be like some African countries. They have human resource they are feeding it self, then stand on their feet and now started walking towards west.

What bubbles?

Here is an example of White color crime in India, A company called "Satyam" now its called "Mahindra Satyam" (Sponsored World cup footie youtube it) in early 2007 they indulged cooking books (inflating profits by transferring funds from one to other, ring any bells???) companies in trouble, govt. intervened. Immediately cancelled their auditors licence in India for two years, company sold to British + Indian consortium saved 60000 jobs and company with in few months. CEO is in Jail, despite very generous and popular person.

Anglo cooked books transferring funds IL & P to here and there, deceived public and dept of Finance. What happened ? Is there arrests? Is that bank can be solvent? what about jobs? Don't worry enquire still going despite two years no body in the govt or auditors or joe duffy knows how is the loss by Anglo. (are we really that poor maths?) Now thats i called bubble bursting...

Pollution: ****e happens, every human activity produces some emissions. Recently BP is polluted in America despite worlds biggest super duper intelligence service, big air force, fat navy and home of inventor facebook country?? Big deal!!

McDougal

**** the americans, **** the chinese, **** the german banks, **** the bureaucrats in Brussels and **** the indians. They are my thoughts

KevinVonSpiel

southsiderosie wrote: »

Um, I'm still not buying it. I spent August in Hong Kong talking to IT managers within MNCs, and they are getting more down on India by the minute. Their work habits are not comparable (i.e. in Hong Kong, London or New York, if there is a problem, everyone stays until it is fixed; in India they go home), they spend half of their time arguing with Indian vendors about why the software doesn't work and contract terms, the infrastructure outside of industrial parks is still terrible, yet the cost of living in a city like Mumbai is astronomical, the government bureaucracy is a nightmare, and only something like 5%% of their engineering graduates are skilled enough to work for an international company. East Asia and Singapore are still where it's at, and India will need decades to catch up. The recent Commonwealth Games fiasco is a perfect case in point: that NEVER would have happened in China, Hong Kong, Singapore or even Malaysia.

All interesting points, however, I've heard off of a friend, a colleague & a client (yes, three different people) that have worked out in China (PRC China) that there are big problems there with motivation & quality of staff. I'd have thought that HK, Singapore & Malaysia were a class apart from a lot of PRC.

Also, isn't the PRC facing problems regarding the aging of the population (I heard Kissinger (alright, alright...) say that PRC might get old before it gets rich) & of a kind of dependency on government support developing/developed in the private sector?

southsiderosie

KevinVonSpiel wrote: »

All interesting points, however, I've heard off of a friend, a colleague & a client (yes, three different people) that have worked out in China (PRC China) that there are big problems there with motivation & quality of staff. I'd have thought that HK, Singapore & Malaysia were a class apart from a lot of PRC.

Also, isn't the PRC facing problems regarding the aging of the population (I heard Kissinger (alright, alright...) say that PRC might get old before it gets rich) & of a kind of dependency on government support developing/developed in the private sector?

Oh lord, don't ask someone from HK about the PRC. Guaranteed rant there. Although as bad as I've heard mainland China is, from what I can tell, India is worse; their saving grace is that so many people speak English. My main frame of reference is HK versus Mumbai, because that's where it seems like a lot of corporate heads in the US want things to shift, but the actual staff in HK think they're crazy (plus aside from the business issues, most of the non-Indian staff don't want to live there).

Yes, I've also read that they have a shrinking population because of the one-child policy. Also, apparently a lot of the factory workers in the Pearl delta area did not return from their villages after Chinese Near last year, and labor strife has increased, so they can't lean on low wages forever. And they can't move up along the value chain unless they pay workers enough make it worthwhile to invest in training them. This was actually the main complaint I heard about production there: manufacturers don't want to invest in training, because there is so much turnover, but without training, they can't move into high value added goods, but the high-value goods would bring in greater revenue to increase wages, etc etc. I think there is a lot going on in China that raises serious red flags about their next phase of economic development, but time will tell, I guess.

Sheeps

i swear once the chinese get a man in space its not gonna be long before theyre on mars because of their lack of value associated with human life. thats gotta be a driving force in their ability to do mad shit.

Oranage2

Sheeps wrote: »

i swear once the chinese get a man in space its not gonna be long before theyre on mars because of their lack of value associated with human life. thats gotta be a driving force in their ability to do mad shit.

Not sure how true that is


http://www.chinasmack.com/2010/pictures/bmw-driver-hits-small-boy-runs-him-over-4x-then-walks-away.html

Amhran Nua

southsiderosie wrote: »

And a lot of US manufacturers weer screwed when they built factories, hired Chinese managers, and after 6 months of learning, the Chinese managers left and opened their own factories making the same thing for less.

Rather than being a limitation, thats one of their greatest strengths. And of course the irony is that the US originally got its industrial headstart by ignoring European copyrights and patents, what goes around comes around. It won't last of course, once they start rolling out their own innovations you won't be long seeing their IP laws being enforced to prevent westerners stealing them.

Augmerson wrote: »

I think I was reading somewhere that the US owes China billions, but if the Chinese were to call in these loans, it would cripple the US economy

Seven percent of US foreign debt is the entirety of China's dollar holdings. Thats all. If they dumped that it would rock the international markets for a while but it would hardly cause the end of the global economy. Also it would cause their own currency to inflate, killing their exports, assuming the WTO didn't allow them just to lock down the RMB by fiat again.

InTheTrees wrote: »

Absolutely right. Yes, they're dependant on us now to buy their stuff but China is growing its middle class rapidly and soon domestic demand will outstrip international demand and thats the point when we're screwed.

Not really, the growth of a middle class brings with it numerous other bits of baggage, like people who want a more active part to play in the leadership of the country as well as demanding decent social services and wages. All's well while China is experiencing massive growth, but sooner or later every bubble pops, then you need to start answering hard questions to your population. Already there is a lot of union activity starting there.

Thats not to underestimate China, to paraphrase from another forum:

If China's state run economy has proved one thing it's that the free-market unmanaged economies of the West will time and again fail to even comprehend the forces arrayed against them. Narrow minded "Market Based" thinking is exactly what got us into this single supplier problem and naively thinking it will get us out is well... naive.

Whatever you think the "free-market" will do to get us out of this mess, the Chinese economic mega-complex has already considered three moves in advance and is working to counter it. People don't seem to understand that China-Inc is essentially the world greatest ever hyper-corporation: millions of companies, thousands of major corporations, and hundreds of banks all working under one overall direction and policy. Just about every trick you'd expect a major-corporation to pull can and has been considered, strategised and implemented by the this acutely self aware market entity.

What's really going on here is that the Chinese Communist Party has developed (invented really) a state controlled, capitalism driven, centrally managed and wholly unified economy; and it's as powerful an apparatus as you'd expect. It's one of the biggest civil and economic developments in world history. And if you expect this electric dragon - a vast, powerful and above all self aware economy under the control of a central brain - to act like your traditionally lauded free market fungus-like economies - efficient, large or small, but hopelessly undirected and prone to bottom feeding - you are mistaken from the very outset. The Communist Party does not wait for startups, demand, financiers, or any other "market forces" to act. They order entire economic sectors to be created, dismantled and transformed overnight.

And it has made them one of the richest countries in the world.

But is it sustainable? No. Sooner or later someone breaks lockstep and your suppression techniques will only work for just so long. At that point they can descend into another civil war or take it semi-gracefully like the Russians. The rise of the Chinese dragon is inevitably going to be tripped up by that old favourite, human nature.

As for the rest, Japan has already stalled economically, South Korea will come to a screeching halt when it is reunified with the north, India is just a mess, I've no idea how to sort that one out. So yes, the far east will be a powerful economic force, but it won't mean the end of the prosperity of the West.

Gone West

InTheTrees wrote: »

With 3 billion people, China already has a middle class thats larger than the entire population of the US.

Chinas population is around 1300 million, not 3 billion.

And this oft quoted (or misquoted) phrase is a bit if a fallacy.
Their middle class are still sh1t poor, their middle class are poorer than even the long term scobes on the dole in Ireland.

enfant terrible

Fuzzy wrote: »

Chinas population is around 1300 million, not 3 billion.

And this oft quoted (or misquoted) phrase is a bit if a fallacy.
Their middle class are still sh1t poor, their middle class are poorer than even the long term scobes on the dole in Ireland.

True and how long will they put up with this poverty while surrounded by such wealth.

Future might not be so rosy for China.

maninasia

This debate missed other powerhouses in the region like Taiwan and Korea and never forget the Japanese! These countries all have bullet trains, fantastic infrastructure and amazing manufacuting capabilities, their companies have invested more than Western companies in China.

Now China is promoting home grown champions and they have a good chance of doing this with the training they have received from these foreign countries.

Southsiderosie is right when pointing out the absolute difference in class between China and India. I travel to both countries fairly regularly, India is like a 3rd world country even in it's business centre Mumbai, large parts of Chinese cities are in better condition and better infrastructure than UK even (forgetting about the air pollution for a second...). Almost every city in China has a new airport and subway under construction, their tourist areas are well maintained, good highways and new bullet trains under construction between major cities. India has potholed roads and garbage lining the capitals streets and half naked kids begging at intersections with cows feeding on the plastic piles. India also suffers from much worse corruption than China these days...inability to lift bottom level of society up so far.

China's economic power is pretty incredible, they are exploiting markets in other emerging economies not just Western countries, go to any trade fair in China you will see mostly brown people there. Then don't forget China's massive internal market and excellent infrastructure creates a further dynamo effect for years to come. Education levels are very high and English skills improving rapidly.

maninasia

enfant terrible wrote: »

True and how long will they put up with this poverty while surrounded by such wealth.

Future might not be so rosy for China.

Yes they are poor, but the trend is positive and they can see that, once property prices come off the boil. You must see where the people came from which in most cases is absolutely nothing. 100s of millions have been lifted out of poverty into fairly comfortable existences within a span of 2 decades. Even farming villages have improved with better roads, access to water and electricity and migrant worker income.

It is a common mistake in Western countries to make out that China is unstable, in fact it is far more stable than most Western countries!

General General

Yeah, but India has Bollywood... & can sure bust the dance moves.

maninasia

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Thats not to underestimate China, to paraphrase from another forum:

If China's state run economy has proved one thing it's that the free-market unmanaged economies of the West will time and again fail to even comprehend the forces arrayed against them. Narrow minded "Market Based" thinking is exactly what got us into this single supplier problem and naively thinking it will get us out is well... naive.

Whatever you think the "free-market" will do to get us out of this mess, the Chinese economic mega-complex has already considered three moves in advance and is working to counter it. People don't seem to understand that China-Inc is essentially the world greatest ever hyper-corporation: millions of companies, thousands of major corporations, and hundreds of banks all working under one overall direction and policy. Just about every trick you'd expect a major-corporation to pull can and has been considered, strategised and implemented by the this acutely self aware market entity.

What's really going on here is that the Chinese Communist Party has developed (invented really) a state controlled, capitalism driven, centrally managed and wholly unified economy; and it's as powerful an apparatus as you'd expect. It's one of the biggest civil and economic developments in world history. And if you expect this electric dragon - a vast, powerful and above all self aware economy under the control of a central brain - to act like your traditionally lauded free market fungus-like economies - efficient, large or small, but hopelessly undirected and prone to bottom feeding - you are mistaken from the very outset. The Communist Party does not wait for startups, demand, financiers, or any other "market forces" to act. They order entire economic sectors to be created, dismantled and transformed overnight.

And it has made them one of the richest countries in the world.

But is it sustainable? No. Sooner or later someone breaks lockstep and your suppression techniques will only work for just so long. At that point they can descend into another civil war or take it semi-gracefully like the Russians. The rise of the Chinese dragon is inevitably going to be tripped up by that old favourite, human nature.

As for the rest, Japan has already stalled economically, South Korea will come to a screeching halt when it is reunified with the north, India is just a mess, I've no idea how to sort that one out. So yes, the far east will be a powerful economic force, but it won't mean the end of the prosperity of the West.

Good description of China, it's something most Western corporations and governments miss in their infatuation with the power of the 'free' market. China is indeed a jugernaut that plays strategically and long-term while Western corporations and governments are planning for this quarter and next year's election. The current failure of the West is caused by blinkered faith in free markets, this is nothing more than an economic theory and not reality, an ideology that is just as wrong as blind faith in Communism or Socialism. Nobody goes into a game playing with blind faith in the other sides 'fairness'...they go in using all their advantages, all their links with the referee and officials, all their local knowledge, all their faked strategy talk before the game, these are the teams that win, going on attack from all sides and having planned it out beforehand! You've lost the game beforehand even though you thought you had picked the best team and trained them well..it didn't matter as the officials were bought off and the local team knew the pitch was soft and they practised with a ball that you've never played with before and they used transfer players without your knowledge. But you vouched for the idea of 'fairness' and you thought they thought like you because 'fairness' is what wins games and that's what you learned at the top coaching school...yeah right.

I don't believe China will implode, I think it will evolve because there is not as much tension in China as supposedly made out. If you ask the average Chinese how do they feel about China right now most are very satisfied. Many Asian countries have evolved peacefully from autocratic regimes and more contentious issues...Taiwan and Korea being two excellent examples, two vibrant democracies and strong economies. Some maintain autocratic regimes with support of the population and have very high living standards e.g. Singapore. Even countries like Indonesia have far surpassed people's expectations.

China is not Japan. They are much bigger than Japan, have more resources than Japan and will have a much bigger domestic economy than Japan. Their influence already spreads further than Japan in it's heyday of the 1980s. They also have a strong military-industrial complex and therefore not so as easily bullied than Japan by US interests. Japan is still a powerful nation but not a geopolitical player as it has no armed forces, a tiger with no teeth or claws.

It is not really about challenging the West but it is a challenge to the US superpower status and their ability to influence other countries so easily, now with the rise of China many countries have another big brother they can play off of.

Amhran Nua

maninasia wrote: »

Taiwan and Korea being two excellent examples, two vibrant democracies and strong economies. Some maintain autocratic regimes with support of the population and have very high living standards e.g. Singapore. Even countries like Indonesia have far surpassed people's expectations.

I think the Chinese example might be a bit different to the Taiwanese or Korean ones, since both of those countries have a strong incentive to remain focused regardless of the government, or they risk being absorbed by their neighbours. Singapore is a city-state, while China is a sub continent larger than Europe.

As long as they can maintain the perception of continued economic growth, China should be able to continue as it is. Sooner or later though, growth reaches the end of its curve, then you have to start providing social services to everyone. Hopefully the Chinese leadership of the time recognises that, in which case the economic juggernaut has most of its power absorbed by catering to the needs its massive population. If they don't, I can't see it ending well.

maninasia wrote: »

They also have a strong military-industrial complex and therefore not so as easily bullied than Japan by US interests.

Even if they had no army or navy to speak of, no nuclear armed nation needs to fear invasion. The days of gunboat diplomacy are all but gone, except for lunatics like the North Korean leadership who are through the looking glass anyway.