Budget 2011 - Roads thread

Amtmann

Latest is that the budget will be harsher than previously expected, so presumably more than €3 billion will be cut. How much will the roads budget be reduced by: that is the question I think. And will there be enough to do the N25 Flyovers, which would be a very significant build if it went ahead?

Tech3

Capital spending I'd say there will be funding to get the PPP's to tender stages. N5 Longford bypass might get funding but I'm not expecting much else.

marmurr1916

Furet wrote: »

Latest is that the budget will be harsher than previously expected, so presumably more than €3 billion will be cut. How much will the roads budget be reduced by: that is the question I think. And will there be enough to do the N25 Flyovers, which would be a very significant build if it went ahead?

I think the latest figure is that €4 billion will be cut.

The government's plans for capital spending are as follows, although who knows what will actually happen:

The profile for capital spending set out in Budget 2010, shows nominal spending of €6,466m in 2010, or approximately 5% of GNP. This is projected to fall to €5,500m in 2011 and for each year to 2014 (effectively, this figure will remain constant in nominal terms to 2016, given the €39billion envelope). On the basis of reasonable assumptions, therefore, capital spending will fall from approximately 5% of GNP in 2010, to approximately 3.1% in 2016, averaging approximately 3.8% of GNP for the period as a whole.

A large percentage of that money goes towards transport infrastructure.

Even with cuts, Ireland's investment in transport infrastructure will remain high by international standards:

http://www.internationaltransportforum.org/statistics/GlobalTrends/Investment.pdf

Our investment profile is more like that of the CEECs (Central and Eastern European Countries) than the WECs (Western European Countries) - we're also playing catch-up in terms of infrastructure, especially roads.

However, it would be a pity if further cuts were made, especially in the roads programme.

Ireland's road safety record has improved immensely over the past decade, largely as a result of improved roads and safer cars.

On a deaths per billion km basis, Ireland is only marginally behind Switzerland and not very far behind the UK and Sweden, the safest OECD countries in terms of road deaths.

We still have a lot of work to do to get our deaths per 100,000 of population figure down from 5.4 to below 4, as the safest countries (UK, Sweden and the Netherlands) have managed:

http://www.internationaltransportforum.org/Press/PDFs/2010-09-15IRTAD.pdf

One of the ways we can achieve that is to continue improving our roads.

It may sound like emotional blackmail, but cutting investment in roads costs lives!

Whatever decisions are taken, I hope that this fact is taken into account.

celticbest

Will Newlands cross flyover go to construction stage??

This is a major project which needs to be completed, every evening the Long Mile/Naas Roads come to a complete standstill because of traffic trying to get through this junction, a simple freeflow would alleviate the problem as well as making a persons journey from the Border to Cork completely freeflow.

marmurr1916

celticbest wrote: »

Will Newlands cross flyover go to construction stage??

This is a major project which needs to be completed, every evening the Long Mile/Naas Roads come to a complete standstill because of traffic trying to get through this junction, a simple freeflow would alleviate the problem as well as making a persons journey from the Border to Cork completely freeflow.

Border to Dunkettle!

I think it's far too early to speculate about what projects will or won't go ahead.

The NRA won't know its budget allocation for a while yet, despite previous commitments.

Once the NRA knows how much it's getting, it'll have to decide which projects to prioritise - that's going to take weeks, possibly months.

I don't know if they'll take public opinion into account when making decisions, but there's no harm in lobbying them to get them to agree with your top 10 projects!

Amtmann

marmurr1916 wrote: »

Border to Dunkettle!

I think it's far too early to speculate about what projects will or won't go ahead.

The NRA won't know its budget allocation for a while yet, despite previous commitments.

Once the NRA knows how much it's getting, it'll have to decide which projects to prioritise - that's going to take weeks, possibly months.

I don't think so. Realistically, there are very few schemes (that haven't been suspended) ready to actually start construction right away. I'm not talking about PPP schemes here, by the way.

• The main one, unquestionably, is the single scheme encompassing the Bandon and Sarsfield flyovers on Cork's N25 South Ring. The Examiner said this would cost €60 million (which I doubt, as the Kinsale roundabout cost 50 million, albeit at inflated Boomtime prices). Tenders for the contract are being prepared by 5 bidding consortia right now as I type. Once the NRA knows what its finances are, construction could start in December this year.
  
• The Longford Bypass is also ready to roll. It's around 3km long and, as tech2 says, is likely to go ahead owing to the small scale of the project.
  
• The Tralee Bypass has also been approved. I'm not sure what the tender situation is, but I think it's highly unlikely this will go ahead in 2011

.

We know that the NRA will also have to pay for M7 Castletown-Nenagh, M18 Gort-Crusheen and the N21 Castleisland bypass. I don't know how these are paid, or if the cost comes out of the 2010 budget or the 2011 budget.

The NRA will also have to set aside a few hundred million for road maintenance. Again, I don't have figures for that.

If there is a shortfall on the M3, the NRA will also have to pay for that out of its 2011 budget (I'd imagine).

The M50 toll could provide an additional source of income for the NRA in 2011, however.

I don't know if they'll take public opinion into account when making decisions, but there's no harm in lobbying them to get them to agree with your top 10 projects!

The NRA don't care about public opinion, though their political masters do. Cork's South Ring would be politically lucrative, and it would yield a very high rate of economic return. It's the priority in terms of exchequer-funded schemes. I really hope it gets done. SpongeBob will no doubt be along soon to provide some (pessimistic) guesstimates and figures.

murphaph

marmurr1916 wrote: »

Once the NRA knows how much it's getting, it'll have to decide which projects to prioritise - that's going to take weeks, possibly months.

If only things worked like that in Ireland, things would be much better. The notion that the NRA is free to decide what it spends its allocation of our money on is false. There is and will continue to be political interference in such matters. FF will prioritise schemes in their most marginal seats, as usual.

L1011

As goes NRA income, I believe they have revenue shares above a certain traffic level on a number of tolls; there is a chance of some extra cash from these due to increasing traffic through tolls such as Fermoy...

Sponge Bob

For 2011, probably the N7 Newlands scheme along with possibly the N5 Longford Bypass and N25 roundabouts and N3 Belturbet Bypass and that is it I think.

Amtmann

Sponge Bob wrote: »

For 2011, probably the N7 Newlands scheme along with possibly the N5 Longford Bypass and N25 roundabouts and N3 Belturbet Bypass and that is it I think.

That's a lot more than I thought. If we could get all that done it would be fantastic - though why are you counting the Newlands scheme as an exchequer-funded project?

Sponge Bob

Furet wrote: »

That's a lot more than I thought. If we could get all that done it would be fantastic - though why are you counting the Newlands scheme as an exchequer-funded project?

PPP projects are exchequer funded to a degree. I will restate for clarity.

1. One PPP project to start in 2011 , N7 Newlands ( plus Arklow)
2. 3 Exchequer funded projects to start , N25 Roundabouts, N5 Longford, N3 Belturbet Bypass.

L1011

Sponge Bob wrote: »

PPP projects are exchequer funded to a degree. I will restate for clarity.

1. One PPP project to start in 2011 , N7 Newlands ( plus Arklow)
2. 3 Exchequer funded projects to start , N25 Roundabouts, N5 Longford, N3 Belturbet Bypass.

You expecting Gort-Tuam to either make it in this year, or get pulled?

Sponge Bob

MYOB wrote: »

You expecting Gort-Tuam to either make it in this year, or get pulled?

This year. The Wexford PPP should have made it to the EIB by now were they to start building it in 2011.

Amtmann

Sponge Bob wrote: »

This year. The Wexford PPP should have made it to the EIB by now were they to start building it in 2011.

Yes, see here.

N25 New Ross Bypass

Local Authority: Wexford County Council
Start County: Kilkenny
End County: Wexford
Description: The scheme has been approved by An Bord Pleanala and has been combined with the M11 Gorey to Enniscorthy project to form a PPP scheme for the South East region. The tender process for the PPP scheme commenced with the publication of an OJEU Notice on 22 March 2010. It is anticipated that contract signing will take place in late 2011/ early 2012.

This project has been funded by the Irish Government under the National Development Plan and Transport 21.

Mainline Length (km): 13.6
Current Project Phase: Tender

Also:

M11 Gorey to Enniscorthy

Local Authority: Wexford County Council
Start County: Wexford
End County: Wexford
Description: The proposed scheme comprises approximately 30 km of new motorway from the end of the Gorey Bypass to the townland of Scurlockbush, south of Enniscorthy. The scheme also includes an 8 km N30 bypass to the west of Enniscorthy and a 4 km N80 link road which will connect the N80 at Scarawalsh to the new M11. The scheme will bypass Ferns, Camolin and Enniscorthy and will incorporate a new bridge crossing of the River Slaney north of Enniscorthy. The Motorway Order and EIS were published in June 2009 and the scheme has received An Bord Pleanála approval. The scheme has been combined with the N25 New Ross Bypass project to form a PPP scheme for the South- East Region. The tender rocess for the PPP scheme commenced with the publication of an OJEU Notice on the 22 MArch 2010. It is anticipated that contrac signing will take place in late 2011/ early 2012.

This project has been funded by the Irish Government under the National Development Plan and Transport 21. This project has been delivered through the Authority’s PPP mechanism.

Mainline Length (km): 30
Current Project Phase: Tender

What's interesting is that the schemes you listed above have all been updated on the NRA's site:

N3 Belturbet Bypass

Local Authority: Cavan County Council
Start County: Cavan
End County: Cavan
Description: The N3 Butlersbridge to Belturbet Road Improvement Scheme which comprises the construction of 6.7km of standard single carriageway will include a bypass of Belturbet Town and a major river crossing of the River Erne. The scheme from the existing N3 at Kilnaleck to the Staghall Roundabout on the existing N3 north of Belturbet will include five at-grade junctions, realignment of side roads and 2 bridge structures. Progression to the award of the construction contract will be dependent upon the availability of funding.

This project has been funded by the Irish Government under the National Development Plan and Transport 21 and by the European Union from the European Regional Development Fund.

Mainline Length (km): 6.7
Current Project Phase: Preliminary Design

N5 Longford Bypass

Local Authority: Longford County Council
Start County: Longford
End County: Longford
Description: This scheme which comprises of a 2.6km standard single carriageway link between the existing N4 and the existing N5 will provide a bypass to the northwest of Longford Town. The scheme which will include rail and river bridge crossings will restrict access to the proposed roundabouts at either end of the scheme. Progression to the award of the Construction Contract will be dependent on the availability of funding.

This project has been funded by the Irish Government under the National Development Plan and Transport 21.

Mainline Length (km): 2.6
Current Project Phase: Preliminary Design

N25 Cork SRR Interchanges

Local Authority: Cork County Council
Start County: Cork
End County: Cork
Description: Cork County Council and Cork City Council, in conjunction with the NRA, prepared a scheme for the grade separation of the N25 Southern Ring Road/ N71 Bandon Road and Sarsfield Road roundabouts. Phase 1 of this project has been constructed in conjunction with the eastern end of the Ballincollig Bypass. The remainder of the scheme will go to tender in Q3 2010.

This project has been funded by the Irish Government under the National Development Plan and Transport 21.

Mainline Length (km): 3
Current Project Phase: Tender

Plus:

N22 Tralee Bypass

Local Authority: Kerry County Council
Start County: Kerry
End County: Kerry
Description: The scheme consists of two sections: (a) An 8.0km Type 2 Dual Carriageway Bypass of Tralee town connecting the N69 Listowel Road with the N70 Killorglin road via the N21 Limerick Road. This section comprises 5 Roundabouts, a compact grade-separated junction, 2 road bridges, a railway crossing at Ballinorig and a crossing of the river Lee at Camp, Ballyseedy. (b) A 5.5 km Standard 2-Lane Access Route from the proposed Bypass to the N22 Killarney Road at Bealagrellagh, including 3 at-grade junctions and 1 road underbridge. Contract documents are under preparation.

This project has been funded by the Irish Government under the National Development Plan and Transport 21 and by the European Union from the European Regional Development Fund.

Mainline Length (km): 13.5
Current Project Phase: Preliminary Design

These were all updated very recently, within the past week or two. The M20 schemes and N22 North Ring Road schemes have also been updated.

celticbest

Sponge Bob wrote: »

1. One PPP project to start in 2011 , N7 Newlands ( plus Arklow)

I didn't know Newlands was going to be a Public Private Partnership.

Does this not mean that this section of road will therefore have to be tolled to pay back the private contractor? If this is the case what would the alternative route be instead of paying the toll?

Amtmann

celticbest wrote: »

I didn't know Newlands was going to be a Public Private Partnership.

Does this not mean that this section of road will therefore have to be tolled to pay back the private contractor? If this is the case what would the alternative route be instead of paying the toll?

It won't be tolled. A new mechanism will allow the PPP contractor to recoup their costs and make a profit, but motorists won't have to pay a toll on any of the currently-proposed PPP schemes.

summer11

We know that the NRA will also have to pay for M7 Castletown-Nenagh, M18 Gort-Crusheen and the N21 Castleisland bypass. I don't know how these are paid, or if the cost comes out of the 2010 budget or the 2011 budget.



These are from 2010 Capital Spend and will be paid by end of this Year.

spacetweek

Sponge Bob wrote: »

For 2011, probably the N7 Newlands scheme along with possibly the N5 Longford Bypass and N25 roundabouts and N3 Belturbet Bypass and that is it I think.

Holy crap Sponge, that's quite a bit more optimism than we usually get from you!

If all those started, we'd be doing well. With the Interurbans finished now, 2011-13ish will likely be very lean years.

munchkin_utd

A Green party TD was just on the Frontline show with Pat Kenny and the inside word is that the Capital budget is to be the whipping boy in order to reduce spending in the next budget.
Sounds ominous

MrDerp

munchkin_utd wrote: »

A Green party TD was just on the Frontline show with Pat Kenny and the inside word is that the Capital budget is to be the whipping boy in order to reduce spending in the next budget.
Sounds ominous

If that's true then its incredibly short-sighted.

Not only do we need to invest in infrastructure for our future economic growth, but if we severely cut the capital budget now, how will there ever be a political environment that's conducive to increasing it?

At least if we slowly rein the budget in, we can keep a number of projects ticking over, and continue to expand our infrastructure. But with deep cuts, then infrastructure will be last to eat from the plate whenever we get back in the black - just as it was during the previous boom.

murphaph

munchkin_utd wrote: »

A Green party TD was just on the Frontline show with Pat Kenny and the inside word is that the Capital budget is to be the whipping boy in order to reduce spending in the next budget.
Sounds ominous

It was always going to happen. The govt haven't the stomach to stand up to the public sector unions. We need to pay ourselves less and build more public infrastructure, but the average Irish person is a greedy so and so and would rather an extra "penny in the pound" was taken off their income tax rather than spent on a public infrastructure project.

The Irish are, in general, an incredibly short sighted bunch of people. The likes of us here who have an interest in all things infrastructure are very thin on the ground in the real world. Sure, we admire metros in other countries, but don't want to pay ourselves a bit less so we can afford our own. We want that 42" plasma TV more!

spacetweek

murphaph wrote: »

The Irish are, in general, an incredibly short sighted bunch of people. The likes of us here who have an interest in all things infrastructure are very thin on the ground in the real world. Sure, we admire metros in other countries, but don't want to pay ourselves a bit less so we can afford our own. We want that 42" plasma TV more!

In fairness mate we've had income tax increases recently (the income levy).

And I think people are coming around to the idea that we'll have higher taxes in future, e.g. at first the water charges were resisted but now people seem to have come to an acceptance. It's just that it's human nature that when you used to have something for free, you object to having to pay for it even if it's completely unreasonable not to. I mean, gas, electricity and phones aren't free, so why should water.

Amtmann

Sponge Bob wrote: »

PPP projects are exchequer funded to a degree. I will restate for clarity.

1. One PPP project to start in 2011 , N7 Newlands ( plus Arklow)
2. 3 Exchequer funded projects to start , N25 Roundabouts, N5 Longford, N3 Belturbet Bypass.

Sponge Bob, in late 2009 you made this prediction:

Sponge Bob wrote: »

OK lets see what €1.1 BN for roads might do. This must pay ALL outstanding amounts on the following:

3 N9 projects costing €1bn
1 N6 project at €500m
2 M7 projects at €1bn
1 M3 project costing €600m
1 M8/M9 project at around €400m
1 M50 project costing €1bn

€4.5bn worth of projects under way, the M50 with full shadow tolling meaning a multi annual commitment.

I would say the cash is well spent without starting any further projects in 2010 which we know they won't bar the M17/M18 .....maybe....

Now look at the ONGOING ( not one off ) PPP commitments for the M50 and M3 and add the 2:1 Road Public Transport ratio from 2011 into el mix.

The public transport spend in 2010 will be €645m and most likely the same in 2011. There is no land acquisition funding in there for MN or for Interconnector either.

That means the road spend in 2011 will be €322m and that the M18 and the Castleisland Bypass must be paid for out of that together with the M50 PPP paymenst due every year until around 2040 and any M3 shortfall

Once these are accounted for then only €100m will be available for new projects/land acquisition in 2011. I really cannot see how they will start more than 1 PPP in 2010 and 2011 given that constraint and if the Public Transport spend stays around €645m the Road fund will be increasingly constrained year by year with PPP commitments.

Can you explain why you think the NRA will have more money than that for 2011?

Sponge Bob

Furet wrote: »

Sponge Bob, in late 2009 you made this prediction:

Can you explain why you think the NRA will have more money than that for 2011?

I was pointing out the implications of the October 2009 programme for government where the Greens got a deal from FF for skewing transport capex 2:1 in favour of Public Transport.

Of course if one takes 'a figure' of €322m and deducts ongoing consultancy payments for designing roads and also deducts retention payments for roads that are already built and which get reannnounced every year for years thereafter then one is left with shag all cash for actually building a new road anywhere. There is a further risk that PPP payments for M50/M3/Limerick tunnel are accounted for as roads capex too.

HOWEVER as major transport projects are all PPP and as the PPP model is bsically broken and largely unfundable then no money can really be spent on MN/Interconnector and therefore may be diverted back into roads.

Have you a more specific question ??

Amtmann

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I was pointing out the implications of the October 2009 programme for government where the Greens got a deal from FF for skewing transport capex 2:1 in favour of Public Transport.

Of course if one takes 'a figure' of €322m and deducts ongoing consultancy payments for designing roads and also deducts retention payments for roads that are already built and which get reannnounced every year for years thereafter then one is left with shag all cash for actually building a new road anywhere. There is a further risk that PPP payments for M50/M3/Limerick tunnel are accounted for as roads capex too.

HOWEVER as major transport projects are all PPP and as the PPP model is bsically broken and largely unfundable then no money can really be spent on MN/Interconnector and therefore may be diverted back into roads.

Have you a more specific question ??

Nope. Interesting times, unfortunately.

This speculatory piece on likely budget cuts is in today's Sunday Business Post:

Capital spending

The government has already cut back its spending on capital projects and infrastructure heavily in recent times, with the capital budget for this year reduced by 12 per cent to €6.4 billion.

Already, the government has conceded that it intends to pare back that figure by a further €1 billion for next year.

Now, however, it seems the cuts will be deeper. Of the €5.5 billion originally set aside for next year, some €3 billion was allocated to construction projects such as roads and schools.

The other €2.5 billion consists of job creation grants and capital investment.

Given that the government will want to retain its focus on job creation, it is unlikely that this will be touched.

Instead, the focus will be on the construction budget.

The feeling in government circles is that Lenihan may have to postpone or even abandon a number of major projects, such as the Metro North or the €2.5 billion Dart Interconnector.

Both these projects are to be built using Public Private Partnership (PPP) models, which lessens the start’s upfront capital exposure.

However, a decision to postpone would reap significant savings in the long term, as well as sending a signal to the international markets that the government was serious about tackling the public finances.

http://www.thepost.ie/newsfeatures/where-will-the-blade-fall-52019.html

Sponge Bob

Furet , you and I know that it would be perfectly possible for Dempsey to waffle and bluster about him having allocated €1bn for roads and NOT ACTUALLY START ANY NEW ROAD PROJECTS

I explained it all in this post with links and examples.

Amtmann

Government to cut €6 billion in next month's budget. Surely there'll be no new starts outside the PPPs now.

dcr22B

Tralee bypass will happen if Jackie Healy Rae is to support the Budget.

rubensni

dcr22B wrote: »

Tralee bypass will happen if Jackie Healy Rae is to support the Budget.

Not a hope, it's a negotiation tactic: ask for a bypass of Tralee and he can then either (a) drop it after putting on the pressure to build the hospital in his constituency, or (b) walk away if he feels that supporting the budget wouldn't be in his interests but the government agree to his plans for a hospital in his constituency. He has no real interest in building the Tralee bypass; it isn't even in his constituency and he knows that the government will never give it to him.

Whatever happens over the next 20 years (and that's how long we could be waiting), Abbeyfeale, Adare and Newcastlewest will be bypassed before Tralee.

Sponge Bob

Rather meaningless but this is todays version of Dempseys 'plan'
Dempsey announces €2.12 billion budget for Transport in 2011

07 - 12 - 2010

Roads - €1.227 billion
Capital Expenditure: €990 million
The 2011 capital provision for national roads is €720 million, €394 million down on 2010. This allocation will fund new projects, including the Belturbet, N5 Longford and Tralee bypasses and the Cork Southern Ring Road junctions. Two PPP projects will also commence in 2011; the M17/18 Gort – Tuam PPP and the M11/Newlands Cross PPP bypasses and there also will be funding for rehabilitation and minor works.

The 2011 provision for the maintenance and improvement of regional and local roads will be €270 million, down €30 million on 2010. This funding will be used almost exclusively to maintain the fabric of the extensive network of some 90,000 kilometres.

Current expenditure: Road maintenance €147.5m

PPP Operational Payments €89.7
This funding will be used to make annual payments to remunerate PPP financing for road projects where the private investment is not remunerated by tolls. The expenditure involved reflects contractual commitments that have already been entered into.

marmurr1916

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Rather meaningless but this is todays version of Dempseys 'plan'
Dempsey announces €2.12 billion budget for Transport in 2011

07 - 12 - 2010

Roads - €1.227 billion
Capital Expenditure: €990 million
The 2011 capital provision for national roads is €720 million, €394 million down on 2010. This allocation will fund new projects, including the Belturbet, N5 Longford and Tralee bypasses and the Cork Southern Ring Road junctions. Two PPP projects will also commence in 2011; the M17/18 Gort – Tuam PPP and the M11/Newlands Cross PPP bypasses and there also will be funding for rehabilitation and minor works.

The 2011 provision for the maintenance and improvement of regional and local roads will be €270 million, down €30 million on 2010. This funding will be used almost exclusively to maintain the fabric of the extensive network of some 90,000 kilometres.

Current expenditure: Road maintenance €147.5m

PPP Operational Payments €89.7
This funding will be used to make annual payments to remunerate PPP financing for road projects where the private investment is not remunerated by tolls. The expenditure involved reflects contractual commitments that have already been entered into.

Capital expenditure is down by €1.8 billion overall, it's been reduced to 3.6% of GDP (itself down significantly). The budget alone will knock 1.5% from GDP...