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This week's Indian Summer
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08-10-2010 11:04pm#1The generally accepted definition of an Indian Summer is a period of mild weather (temperatures at least 21°C) occuring in late Autumn, after the leaves have turned, and before the first snows (and some say it has to occur after the first frost). It looks like we'll be having one in the next few days, as the warm continental airmass (850hPa temperatures as high as 15°C tomorrow) is advected in east to southeasterly winds. Western areas could reach the 21°C benchmark over the weekend, with eastern and southern areas in the mid-high teens.
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Just rooting through the stats for some of the met eireann stations for October and without a doubt, 1959 saw the highest October temperatures to date. (based on records since 1945).
The opening days of October 1959 saw a synoptic set up pretty similar to the current one, with a long fetch southerly airflow being pumped up from the Iberian Peninsula between a blocking high over eastern Europe and low pressure in the mid-Atlantic.
Highest temperatures were recorded on the 4th October of that year.
Chart for 12utc 4th October 1959:
Look familiar??? :pac:
Highest temperatures recorded on that day from a select number of Met Eireann Stations:
Kilkenny: 23.7c
Valentia: 23.5c
Birr: 23.2c
Shannon Apt: 23.0c
Mullingar: 22.9c
Shannon: 23.0c
Claremorris: 21.7c
Malin Head: 21.1c
Belmullet: 21.7c
Dublin Apt: 20.7c
Rosslare: 20.3c
Will October 2010's max's compare? we'll see..0 -
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The problem is rich moisture trapped in the boundary layer beneath the strong inversion at around 920hPa (in the Nottingham sounding below, which shows conditions in the airmass upstream from us). But tomorrow and Monday drier conditions should move in and give a better chance of sunny and calmer conditions as the High centre moves south over us.
Incidentally, there are amazing standing waves visible over Ulster in the satellite loop, as this moist boundary layer is forced up over the terrain and into the inversion, where it becomes negatively buoyant and continues downstream in a wave-like motion, forming many stationary Sc lenticularis.
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It's amazing to see the freezing level at over 3,400m (11,100ft), and getting to 3,800m (12,500ft) Tuesday! :eek: By next Sunday, the GFS has it back down to 1400m in the north, while 3000m in the south - that should give rise to some pretty decent rainfall!
Here are today's 18Z Valentia sounding data
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The sun has just made an appearance here now and it's turned a typical "anticyclonic gloomy" day into a marvellous "Goldener Oktober" evening. This clearance should move westwards this evening, and tomorrow we should get some decent spells of sunshine after early fog clears.
We almost got away with no cloud, it's just that the boundary layer moisture was deep enough yesterday and today for the dewpoint and temperature curves to meet just before the inversion, which led to the layer of low cloud.
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Nice autumnal day today I thought. Very little variation in temperature though since midnight with temp only peaking at 13.4c during the afternoon, about 1.0c higher than during the night!
Davis v2 readings
falling a little more sharply over the last couple of hours.0
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