One bet challenge: €150 to €33,937.98

turbobaby

Here we go....

I have put my first (and possibly only) ante post accumulator on for this year. It is a massive 10 fold accy as follows:



Levrekusen Group B Winner 1.909
CKSA Group F Winner 1.5
Zenit Group G Winner 1.2
Inter to Qualify Group A 1.1
Man U Qualify Group C 1.05
Chelsea Qualify Group F 1.02
Shaktar Qualify Group H 1.2
Hamilton 4th to 10th Japan 1.8
Hereford L2 Relegation 2.875
Mackie Champ Top Goals 9

Wish me luck!

Current odds: 226.2352 (225/1)
Target odds: 1.0 (Win)

I will update the odds as they change according to the best price available on oddschecker (incl Betfair).

turbobaby

...and here's the screenshot!

turbobaby

Although Hereford picked up a draw against Port Vale yesterday, I'm off to a good start as Lewis Hamilton finished 5th. He was flying in 4th at one stage but lost the use of 3rd gear and dropped back to 5th.

Updated odds as follows:

Levrekusen Group B Winner 1.909
CKSA Group F Winner 1.5
Zenit Group G Winner 1.2
Inter to Qualify Group A 1.1
Man U Qualify Group C 1.05
Chelsea Qualify Group F 1.02
Shaktar Qualify Group H 1.2
Hamilton 4th to 10th Japan WIN
Hereford L2 Relegation 2.875
Mackie Champ Top Goals 9

Wish me luck!

Starting odds: 226.2352 (225/1) or 0.44% chance of win.
Current odds: 125.686 (125/1) or 0.80% chance of win
Target odds: 1.0 (Win)

c_man

Best of luck with it dude

I-Shot-Jr

Crazy bet, seems like you had a lot of fun picking! What would you do with the winnings if you won?

turbobaby

I-Shot-Jr wrote: »

Crazy bet, seems like you had a lot of fun picking! What would you do with the winnings if you won?

Stick it in shares and ETFs and live off the interest! :pac:

Kod-box

The only dodgy one is James Mackie, how is he fairing out so far?

turbobaby

Kod-box wrote: »

The only dodgy one is James Mackie, how is he fairing out so far?

Yeah, he's the danger choice alright.

He's top goalscorer at the mo with 8, but hasn't scored since Sept 18.

The big dangers are probably Chris Iwelumo on 7 but I don't think he can sustain that and is older so more susceptible to injury.

Danny Graham is two behind, but I don't think Watford will continue their early season excellent form. They were widely tipped for relegation at the start of the season.

Bothroyd (5) and Bellamy (2) are other dangers, with Bellamy due back from injury next week.

Chopra and Maynard are both out with long term injuries.

Mackie doesn't take penalties which is another thing going against him, but looking at oddschecker, all of the rest of the bookies have him as 5/1, 11/2 or 6/1 but Coral Eurobet give a very generous 8/1 so that's the main reason I picked him!

Actually, Coral are extremely generous with a lot of their ante-post bets. Punters don't like these types of bets cos it ties up money for so long, but I think you get value for money watching various results every week to follow having made just one bet.

I have spotted another excellent value ante post bet with Coral, so I will add another accy to include this and will post up later this evening.

turbobaby

turbobaby wrote: »

Although Hereford picked up a draw against Port Vale yesterday, I'm off to a good start as Lewis Hamilton finished 5th. He was flying in 4th at one stage but lost the use of 3rd gear and dropped back to 5th.

Updated odds as follows:

Levrekusen Group B Winner 1.909
CKSA Group F Winner 1.5
Zenit Group G Winner 1.2
Inter to Qualify Group A 1.1
Man U Qualify Group C 1.05
Chelsea Qualify Group F 1.02
Shaktar Qualify Group H 1.2
Hamilton 4th to 10th Japan WIN
Hereford L2 Relegation 2.875
Mackie Champ Top Goals 9

Wish me luck!

Starting odds: 226.2352 (225/1) or 0.44% chance of win.
Current odds: 125.686 (125/1) or 0.80% chance of win
Target odds: 1.0 (Win)

Not the best day today. Hereford were away to Northampton (3rd bottom) and were down 3-0 only to come back and win 4-3. As well as a vital 3 points, the comeback will no doubt have a hugely positive impact on them, so I'm a bit worried about this pick. At HT I was licking my fingers, but it's amazing what 45mins in football will do.

Mackie failed to score as QPR drew 0-0 with Norwich, but Bothroyd was the only real rival to score, so not much damage done.

1.01 backers done in the United game. Some sick people out there tonight!

turbobaby

Updated odds as follows:

Levrekusen Group B Winner 1.909
CKSA Group F Winner 1.5
Zenit Group G Winner 1.2
Inter to Qualify Group A 1.1
Man U Qualify Group C 1.05
Chelsea Qualify Group F 1.02
Shaktar Qualify Group H 1.2
Hamilton 4th to 10th Japan WIN
Hereford L2 Relegation 3.6
Mackie Champ Top Goals 9

Starting odds: 226.2352 (225/1) or 0.44% chance of win.
Current odds: 157.394 (156/1) or 0.64% chance of win
Target odds: 1.0 (Win)

turbobaby

I had a few v nice winning bets over the weekend, so I have placed another ante-post accumulator bet as follows:

Bristol City to be relegated 4.33
St Mirren to finish bottom 3.0
Plymouth to be relegated 7.0
Spartak Moscow to Qualify from Group F 1.5

Stake £250
To win: £34,000
Current odds: 136.395 (135/1)
Chance of win: 0.73%
Target odds: 1.0 (Win)



I will update the odds as they change according to the best price available on oddschecker (incl Betfair).

8-10

turbobaby wrote: »

I had a few v nice winning bets over the weekend, so I have placed another ante-post accumulator bet as follows:

Bristol City to be relegated 4.33
St Mirren to finish bottom 3.0
Plymouth to be relegated 7.0
Spartak Moscow to Qualify from Group F 1.5

Stake £250
To win: £34,000
Current odds: 136.395 (135/1)
Chance of win: 0.73%
Target odds: 1.0 (Win)



I will update the odds as they change according to the best price available on oddschecker (incl Betfair).

I like this one a lot. 1.5 on it's own is excellent for Spartak IMO. Best of luck with this and the other. Is there particular reason you're backing Plymouth to go down? Don't know a thing about the club myself so just curious.

turbobaby

8-10 wrote: »

I like this one a lot. 1.5 on it's own is excellent for Spartak IMO. Best of luck with this and the other. Is there particular reason you're backing Plymouth to go down? Don't know a thing about the club myself so just curious.

I am a crap gambler, so I have taken my own reasoning out from bets and try to exploit errors made by odds compilers.

For example, Bristol City are best priced 3.75 with other bookies so the 4.3 is an error on the part of Coral in my opinion so I stick it down in the accumulator. I am wary of Maynard returning in the new year and he is a class player who'll make a big difference for them when fully fit.

However, the Argyle bet has some input from myself (so will prob let me down). 7.0 is generous in my opinion - last price matched with Betfair was 3.15, but the market isn't very liquid so it's defo my weak link in the accumulator. 888 Sport also go 7.0 but I've taken them to the cleaners before so no bother there! Argyle are really struggling with an overpaid squad and no money to replace them. The mood on their BBC forum is down and dreary so I thought it was worth the risk sticking them in.

I agree that Spartak at 1.50 is a superb bet. They've beaten Marseille in France and the return fixture is in sub zero Moscow in November, which Marseille will likely have to win to get ahead of Spartak.

turbobaby

Had a great run of bets over the last couple of days following the market movers at pre move prices (slow bookies!) so I have plenty of cash to put into my long term bets for big bucks.

3 more as follows:

Tony McCoy: Sports Pers 2.75
Arthur Abraham Super 6 winner 7.5
Spartak Moscow qualify CL 1.5
Inter to qualify CL 1.1
Zenit St Petersburg win group 1.2
CSKA Moscow win group 1.5
Bayer Leverkusen win group 1.909
Sporting Lisbon win group 1.364
Barcelona qualify 1.01
Red Bull Constructor's Champ 1.03
Shaktar qualify CL 1.2
Real Madrid qualify CL 1.03
Bayern Munich qualify CL 1.03
Man U qualify CL 1.05

Due to the accumulator max stake reached on the selections in bold (€39) I had to add the non bold selections and re-bet each time.

Stake totals approx €175 with odds of approx 160/1 and payout at around €25,000

---

Next up:

Zenit win Europa League 21
Aston Villa finish Top 6 3.25
San Antonio Spurs NBA Southwest Division 2.88

Odds 197/1 Stake €134.00 Total €26,319.04

---

....and finally:

St Mirren Bottom Scot Prem 3
Bristol City Relegated Champ 4.33
Spartak Moscow qualify CL 1.5
Inter to qualify CL 1.1
Zenit St Petersburg win group 1.2
Shaktar qualify CL 1.2
Sporting Lisbon win group 1.364
Bayer Leverkusen win group 1.909
Brighton top 6 League 1 1.5

Odds 120/1 Stake £200.00 Total £24,090.00

---

Big midweek starting tonight with a full round of Championship, Champions League and Europa League!

Cant be ar5ed putting up screenshots. Hopefully I have your trust!

All these prices are still available, some of them superb value compared to other bookies.

turbobaby

Not a great night at all last night with Bothroyd, Iwelumo and Kris Commons (2) all scoring.

Bristol City won, but thankfully stay bottom. Spartak and Shaktar lost but still look ok for qualification.

Here's hoping for a good Europa League on Thursday!

turbobaby

OK time for an update. Sadly the news isn't great for my accumulators but the beauty of long term bets is that you're always in with a shout.

First thing, I did manage to get a 6th bet down due to some v good luck with ice hockey bets. It's as follows:



Lyon to win their CL Group: 1.57
Bayern to qualify from their CL group: 1.03
Shaktar to qualify from their CL group: 1.22
Tennessee Titans AFC South Winner: 4
Sporting Lisbon EL group winner: 1.36
Zenit EL group winner: 1.2
Leverkusen EL group winner: 1.909
Cardiff Top 6 finish: 1.28
Newport County Promotion from BSq: 6.5

Odds: 204.5
£130 to win £26,571.91

---

I'm not sure of the based way to track all six accumulators so I'll just list the outsiders and the current odds of the accys.

Mackie Top Goalscorer Championship: 9 -> 18
Leverkusen Win EL group: 1.9 -> 1.98
Hereford L2 Relegation: 2.87 -> 5
Bristol City to be relegated: 4.33 -> 6
St. Mirren finish bottom SPL: 3 -> 2.62
Plymouth relegation L1: 7 -> 8
Tony McCoy BBC Personality: 2.75 -> 2.38
Villa Top 6: 3.25 -> 5.1
San Antonio Spurs South West winner: 2.88 -> 3.0
Newport Promotion BSq 6.5 -> 8
Tennessee Titans AFC South Winner 4 -> 3

A lot of reds there!

However, most of the odds on choices have done well so the accumulators odds are as follows:

No. 1 226 -> 274
No. 2 136 -> 192
No. 3 159 -> 72
No. 4 196 -> 351
No. 5 120 -> 85.25
No. 6 204 -> 138

Chance of one accy winning: 3.63% -> 4.44%

turbobaby

Well, the one bet challenge that became a six bet challenge has been reduced to three with the elimination of Spartak from the Champions' League. I was extremely confident of them getting through but Marseille's form improved and Spartak have been poor since I placed by bets so no complaints really.

Unfortunately, my two best performing accumulators have been taken out, leaving me now with only three accumulators:

The following "outsiders" remain:

Bet 1
Hereford relegation 2.875 -> 4.5
Mackie Top Goalscorer 9.0 -> 28.0
+ odds-on selections

271/1

Bet 2
Zenit to win Europa League 21.0 -> 18.0
Aston Villa Top 6 Finish 3.25 -> 7.0
San Antonio Spurs SW Div 2.88 -> 2.25

282/1

Bet 3
Tennessee Titans South Winner 4.0 -> 5.0
Newport County BSq Promotion 6.5 -> 9
+ odds-on selections

151/1

All round sh1t really! :cool:

turbobaby

turbobaby wrote: »

...and here's the screenshot!

Quick update on this. Only one accumulator with realistic chances of winning at this point. Four completely ruled out, one other as an outsider.

That leaves just my original bet:
In it all but 2 of the selcetions have come in as winners, leaving the following double to win €34k.

Jamie Mackie Top Goalscorer Championship: Now on nine goals, four behind Bothroyd. Drifted from 9.0 to best priced 34.0

Hereford to be relegated from League 2: Currently rock bottom of L2 without a home win and more games played than rivals. Shortened from 2.875 to best priced 2.63.

Current odds 88/1 from 225/1.

Confident of Hereford getting relegated, so that leaves me to shout on Mackie for goals!

argosy2006

me likely!!!!!!!

eh i dunno

Would love to see the bet win but cant see Mackie winning the top scorer award to be honest :mad: Will probably get a hat trick in his next game now to make me look like a fool

turbobaby

Thanks lads...

Yeah, he's only scored one in the last few months, and no goal again today.

He's playing on the right in a front four which doesnt help.

Not much confidence in him tbh but there's nobody except Bothroyd really looking like top scorer, and he might be leaving for the Prem in January which would be sweet!

yesno1234

Unbelievable bet man, fair play. Best of luck with it.

eh i dunno

Bothroyd linked with Fulham this morning..hope he goes to give Mackie a better chance.

digme

Never seen anyone place a bet like this before.Very interesting read so far,goodluck with it, hope you make a few thousand !

turbobaby

eh i dunno wrote: »

Bothroyd linked with Fulham this morning..hope he goes to give Mackie a better chance.

Thanks man, yeah Bothroyd's missed the last three games with a slight hamstring strain so I smell something going on. If Kris Commons could also leave the Championship I'd be delighted - he's also out of contract in 6 months...

By the way, a couple of weeks into the bet Mackie had a free header into an open goal against Bristol City, but headed it in off Helguson who was on the line and miles offside. Goal ruled out. If that costs me at the end of the season I will be a bitter man!

homolumo

Have you laid Mackie? (no innuendo intended)

turbobaby

homolumo wrote: »

Have you laid Mackie? (no innuendo intended)

Haven't laid him, and wont to be honest. Closed my Betfair account a couple of years back after I was lucky to escape intact after a few late nights on the Exchange Games!

The bet is not looking good at all to be fair. Mackie's goals have really dried up. Goal disallowed for offside at weekend, and Hereford got off the bottom... 'tis a long season though so we'll see.

My other accy from the six I did that's left with a chance is:

Zenit win the Europa League: 9/1
Villa Top 6 in Prem: 12/1
San Antonio Spurs to win Southwest Div NBA: 5/6

Can't be too confident in that either!

Might keep my eyes open for another during the break for FA Cup this weekend...

iMuse

Jamie mackie suffered a double broken leg today so its doubtful he will score anymore this season

homolumo

iMuse wrote: »

Jamie mackie suffered a double broken leg today so its doubtful he will score anymore this season

Just heard it on SSN....Hard luck.

turbobaby

homolumo wrote: »

Just heard it on SSN....Hard luck.

Yep, just found out after a few nice frames of snooker

Onwards and upwards though!

Will be back with another thread soon I hope...

homolumo

turbobaby wrote: »

Yep, just found out after a few nice frames of snooker

Onwards and upwards though!

Will be back with another thread soon I hope...

I like these kinda bets, plenty of value even if they are longshots.