PyRo's Horse Lays.

x PyRo

I've got might good at picking losers of late so I'm going to start posting my lays every day, although they'll start turning into winners no doubt!

I'll lay any price I feel is underpriced, any type of races, especially maidens.

Starting Bank - €1,000

No limit to the amount I stake per day, hopefully the liability won't go above 10% of the bank per day but I'm not sticking to any strict rules.

Reasoning will be provided but not as in-dept as my other thread.

First selections will be posted up later, wish me luck! :pac:

By the way, I'm no expert at laying and it's my first time logging them so I may be crap at it, hopefully not. I'm pretty damn good at picking losers!

Bestake

Great to see another layer on board......not many of us out here!

x PyRo

First bet :

2:00 Goodwood - Zelos Diktator - Lay €15 at 3.5 (Liability €37.50)

Taking a bit of a chance here as he's likely to be the favourite but at 5/2 he's far too short to be involved with, he hasn't won on the flat for 6 starts and never won a handicap, I reckon 5/1 would be a closer reflection on his chance. Despite finishing 2nd on his last 3 runs he's running off a career high mark of 58, he's upped in trip to 2 miles for the first time, he should stay as he has raced over further over hurdles but never on the flat. He has a tendency to run around under pressure and with Richard Hughes on board having to do 11st 2lbs up again the NH jockeys I think he'll have a tough job out-battling them over 2 mile. Zelos Diktator does enjoy the soft ground but has a tough task on his hands to win this, there are many dangers also. Mohanad would be my pick of the rest and he's a superior hurdler to my selection and could well have his number on the flat, despite being a maiden on the flat after 12 runs he has come 2nd on his last 3 starts, upped to 2m for the first time could mean he'll have a very good chance on ground he'll love. I'm laying the Moore horse and I expect he could be good value for the lay at a current price of 3.5.

Kod-box

Good stuff man, always something ive been interested in trying but dont have the bank to do it properly at the moment, midweek will be a paradise for these lays i'd imagine.

JONJO THE MISER

Yeah have been meaning to get back into laying myself but poker taking up too much of my time to put in the proper study, will keep a eye on this thread.

x PyRo

x PyRo wrote: »

First bet :

2:00 Goodwood - Zelos Diktator - Lay €15 at 3.5 (Liability €37.50)

Taking a bit of a chance here as he's likely to be the favourite but at 5/2 he's far too short to be involved with, he hasn't won on the flat for 6 starts and never won a handicap, I reckon 5/1 would be a closer reflection on his chance. Despite finishing 2nd on his last 3 runs he's running off a career high mark of 58, he's upped in trip to 2 miles for the first time, he should stay as he has raced over further over hurdles but never on the flat. He has a tendency to run around under pressure and with Richard Hughes on board having to do 11st 2lbs up again the NH jockeys I think he'll have a tough job out-battling them over 2 mile. Zelos Diktator does enjoy the soft ground but has a tough task on his hands to win this, there are many dangers also. Mohanad would be my pick of the rest and he's a superior hurdler to my selection and could well have his number on the flat, despite being a maiden on the flat after 12 runs he has come 2nd on his last 3 starts, upped to 2m for the first time could mean he'll have a very good chance on ground he'll love. I'm laying the Moore horse and I expect he could be good value for the lay at a current price of 3.5.

Brilliant, absolutely hammered a long way out! Went off at 5.94 also so I got a value lay surely.

Good start.

x PyRo

Came 10th in the end, sent off 4/1 second favourite and finished over 90 lengths adrift! Hopefully it's always as easy as that.

Bank - €1015 (+€15)

Bets placed - 1
Successful - 1
SR - 100%
ROI - 100%

UrbanSea

Nice start pyro.

x PyRo

Cheers G.

3:10 Goodwood - Mutual Force - Lay €10 @ 5.2 (Liability €42)

I don't think this one will be suited by the cut in the ground. He won a poor maiden on quick ground at Beverley over 7f. He was stepped up to a mile and ran poorly on soft ground. He has a 7lb claimer on board but he's not one I'd rate at all. There seems to be a lot of pace in the race and I don't think it's ideal for him either, he likes to take them along at a good gallop and may not get the chance to do that here, even if he does he may set it up for another horse to come home late. There are many others that I'd fancy to come ahead of him, Oliver's Gold being one. There's a few quid for him and he's the one to beat based on his fast finishing run in a nursery back in September. Mutual Force is opposable at these odds and I'd want a lot more before I'd get involved, he's not without a chance by any means but I don't think his price reflects his true chances.

x PyRo

This is much easier than backing. :pac: 3rd or 4th but never looked too likely.

Slow and steady wins the race.

Bank - €1025 (+€25)

Bets placed - 2
Successful - 2
SR - 100%
ROI - 100%

x PyRo

3:45 Goodwood - New Latin - Lay €10 @ 2.7 (Liability €27)

Very risky one as he does hold a favourites chance but it looks like there is some decent opposition in here. Celtic Sixpence is my idea of the winner with Hanangan on board now, he's a huge positive to any horse and the horse handles these conditions too. New Latin shouldn't have too much bother on the ground either but he looked very green last time out and may need another run before we see his true ability, Johnston may want to keep him from winning until he gets a handicap mark so I wouldn't be surprised to see him beaten, although he did try quite hard on both starts to date. At this price he's worth a small lay in the hope that he doesn't run to ability. The form of his run last time out wasn't franked either with the winner of his last race running poorly since. 6f might be on the sharp side for him and he may make a decent miler eventually but I can't back him today at this price.

Peyton Manning

I still have absolutely no idea how laying works no matter how much I read up on it

x PyRo

New Latin easily beaten! Celtic Sixpence won. This shit is easy. :pac:

Archi, it's pretty much backing something to lose. I haven't really done it before but it's quite easy to pick losers in horse racing so I'm going to give it a good shot.

3/3 now.

x PyRo

Bank - €1035 (+€35)

Bets placed - 3
Successful - 3
SR - 100%
ROI - 100%


Last lay of the day and the riskiest of the lot!

4:20 Goodwood - Weapon Of Choice - Lay €20 @ 1.9 (Liability €19)

Reasonably impressive on debut having finished 2 lengths behind next time out winner, Vanguard Dream. He will be hard to beat but is now upped an extra furlong to 1m 1f and has some decent opposition in this race. I fancy Flodden to appreciate the cut in the ground and the extra furlong that he has to face. Spencer is on board him too as he has been on all 4 of his starts. I think he's far better value than my odds on lay. Martin Lane is on Weapon of Choice, he's a very good jockey but it is his first time up on this fellow who looks like he might need a fair bit of coaxing along over this distance. David Simcock trains him and he has a poor record around Goodwood with only 5 winners from 68 saddled and he has had some short priced horses beaten here before. I don't think 1.9 is value and is worth a small lay in the hope that he doesn't perform. He doesn't justify an odds on price tag and I think Flodden has the ability to win this race.

Win or lose my first day will end in profit so I'm happy.

x PyRo

Weapon of Choice won easily, Spencer tried to make all on Flodden, no idea why!

First day laying and gained a few quid, only small stakes until I get the hang of it but it's good fun for little work!


Bank - €1016 (+€16)

Bets placed - 4
Successful - 3
SR - 75%
Won - €35
Lost - €19


I don't know how to work out the ROI actually. :pac: Might just leave that.

Gavin "shels"

Archimedes wrote: »

I still have absolutely no idea how laying works no matter how much I read up on it

Same as myself, go on Pyro give us a lecture!;)

x PyRo

Lecture (click)

:pac:

argosy2006

Gavin shels wrote: »

Same as myself, go on Pyro give us a lecture!;)

just think of it as roles reversed.. ur the bookie, ie if u lay a horse at 4-1 for 100 euro and it loses you win the stake, like a bookie would, u win a 100, plus ur stake back,,so now u have 200.00
if it wins, you pay out like a bookie,,,ie lose bet, and have to pay out 4-1x100=400.00
hence why its only clever to lay a very short price to limit ur payout if it wins,

x PyRo

Risky lay now but I'm going to up the ante. That's the only one for the moment. 10% of the bank's on the line.

2:50 Kempton - Water Ice - Lay €40 @ 3.5 (Liability €100)

The best in at the weights here but I don't think she has an ideal position to attack from stall 4. Plenty of pace in the race could be to her detriment and the yard have been out of form for a while now, they haven't had a winner at this track for over a year and 32 horses who have been sent here. Richard Kingscote is a jockey I always love to avoid and he has a poor 7% strike rate here with only 17 wins from 214 rides. He's quite weak in a finish in my opinion and with this horse trying 1 mile for the second time she may need a lot of coaxing along to actually stay the trip. She didn't run well over a mile at Bath when she tried it 2 starts ago and she was very one paced from over a furlong out. I fancy Right Said Fred to appreciate the step down in class and application of blinkers. He has a perfect draw in stall 11 and should love the step up to 1 mile. At 3.5 I feel Water Ice is opposable and hopefully I'll be proven right.

darsar

Hi Pyro!

I'm delighted to see you on the laying. Laying is by far my favourite. The buzz of seing your jockey fall ( not in the bad way) or your horse being ridden 4 furlongs out and finding nothing is something else.

My weakness is I lack discipline. Sometimes in times gone by I risk my whole balance I had built up on a blind bet, some 16/1, ah he'll never win type thing. Getting greedy. (do your think today on your last lay you got carried away in this frame of mind maybe?) I love your discipline of posting your selection or two and that's it, walk away up a bit or down a little. But it's the walking away that's the important part. I'll learn, I am following your backing too so between that and this laying I have enough to keep me from being in a bookies or online for any other reason than these few selections.

Poor race from Avertor today but Tinakelly Lad recouped to leave me at €1 loss. I'll take that! Collect returns and leave until pyro posts again. I can do it. Can't I Pyro?!?!!

x PyRo

darsar wrote: »

Hi Pyro!

I'm delighted to see you on the laying. Laying is by far my favourite. The buzz of seing your jockey fall ( not in the bad way) or your horse being ridden 4 furlongs out and finding nothing is something else.

My weakness is I lack discipline. Sometimes in times gone by I risk my whole balance I had built up on a blind bet, some 16/1, ah he'll never win type thing. Getting greedy. (do your think today on your last lay you got carried away in this frame of mind maybe?) I love your discipline of posting your selection or two and that's it, walk away up a bit or down a little. But it's the walking away that's the important part. I'll learn, I am following your backing too so between that and this laying I have enough to keep me from being in a bookies or online for any other reason than these few selections.

Poor race from Avertor today but Tinakelly Lad recouped to leave me at €1 loss. I'll take that! Collect returns and leave until pyro posts again. I can do it. Can't I Pyro?!?!!

Evening mate,

haha at "the buzz of seeing your jockey fall". :pac: Totally agree though, as long as they're not hurt I'm happy to see em fall!

Most peoples weakness is lacking discipline, mine was too until I took a look at my empty bank account and decided to change things. Now I make good money from a few bets a day. Just stop living off the rush of a bet and you'll do grand, I used to back in the majority of races just for the thrill, chasing that adrenaline rush. Now I chase the money by slow rolling it, although I've been doing shite lately. :mad: Hopefully that'll chage though.

I had all of those lays lined up already but didn't post them until the other was beaten as I don't want to go above a certain amount of money per day. I had him selected the night before, I wouldn't of laid him unless the 1st, 2nd and 3rd horses all lost, which they did. I had more lined up if he had of lost too but that was my stopping point and I took the money and ran, even though it's only pennies.

Pity about Avertor alright, he just found nothing and never traveled. Glad Tinakellylad got you a few quid down, he ran a gallant race despite the odd jumping error. Hopefully there's returns to collect sometime soon! This thread will keep me occupied while the other one is doing poorly. I'm due a change of luck.

Good luck today mate, hopefully everyone has a good day.

SoulTrader

You know what, I've had €600 in my Betfair account since God knows when. I've been an occasional lurker of your last thread, but have always been more into the laying side of things. I'm gonna go along with this one... good luck!

x PyRo

Cheers ST, hopefully it loses for both of us. If it doesn't I'll need a couple of good days to claw back that 100 quid. She has a very tough job from stall 4 regardless, especially being a horse who likes to be prominent.

darsar

Can you tell me why some people threads have say

Bank = €1000

And others use

+1000pts

I understand the 1pt on X means 1 out of 5 rating confidence but not sure on the bank being done on pts..

x PyRo

Same thing really, just different terms. I don't mind posting my stakes for the lays as they're only small and I'd get confused keeping track of laying "points".

I use the point system in the other thread as it's easier and keeps the staking private.

A bank can be done on "pts" too, 100pts being €10 per point which is a €1,000 bank or €10,000 at €100 a point. I just think it's handier than posting my stake per selection. Easier to manage too.

I just get confused with all the decimals so I said I'll post monetary stakes to avoid getting something wrong. :pac:

DOC09UNAM

Pyro, you've increased my interest in horse racing now, Laying looks easy enough if you're willing to lose

x PyRo

DOC09UNAM wrote: »

Pyro, you've increased my interest in horse racing now, Laying looks easy enough if you're willing to lose

But by losing you win. :pac:

Best scenario ever!

DOC09UNAM

x PyRo wrote: »

But by losing you win. :pac:

Best scenario ever!

I just realised this can't be done on paddypower

I don't think i've anything in my betfair account, and I don't even think it's set up to withdraw anything yet.

Crowie13

Good luck with the laying Pyro, have never done it myself but may get into some day

TheMilkyPirate

argosy2006 wrote: »

just think of it as roles reversed.. ur the bookie, ie if u lay a horse at 4-1 for 100 euro and it loses you win the stake, like a bookie would, u win a 100, plus ur stake back,,so now u have 200.00
if it wins, you pay out like a bookie,,,ie lose bet, and have to pay out 4-1x100=400.00
hence why its only clever to lay a very short price to limit ur payout if it wins,

So basically it's even money for you?

You'd need a big bank to start laying though wouldn't you.

Bestake

x PyRo wrote: »

Risky lay now but I'm going to up the ante. That's the only one for the moment. 10% of the bank's on the line.

2:50 Kempton - Water Ice - Lay €40 @ 3.5 (Liability €100)

Yes yes yes!!!