PyRo's Horse Lays.

DOC09UNAM

Pyro you've really taken to laying like a champ.

Must get some money in my betfair account quickly, is it tough to withdraw it back out or do you need to verify age?

argosy2006

DOC09UNAM wrote: »

Pyro you've really taken to laying like a champ.

Must get some money in my betfair account quickly, is it tough to withdraw it back out or do you need to verify age?

had problems doing that myself, just scan your drivers lincence or passport to verify your account,
then can withdraw easily, via cheque,,paypal. direct to you bank so on,,
just email betfair to find out where to email the copy of your licence to,
not sure what the email is ,

mailburner

good luck xpyro

i wondered when somebody would start doing this

do a bit of it myself but mostly footie these days
got a bit hooked when i was laying horses and the
amount of time i spent on it was ridiculous and
the amount of time i spent studying form was also crazy.


you're going about it the right way so keep it up

x PyRo

Cheers for the comments folks, I'm only new to the laying side of betting but the same methods should work for this as they do for my other thread, just with the goal reversed. Instead of overpriced horses I want to find underpriced horses, as long as I keep doing that it should go along swimmingly but things don't always work like that! Hopefully it will though, it'll be a good experience regardless.

I'll pick the lay for later when I get up, I've spent a fair few hours on the cards and my head is completely fried. I better sleep on it before posting anything.

x PyRo

Risky one in terms of the bank again but I certainly think he's beatable. I'm risking my profit and 10% of the starting bank on this one.

8:40 Kempton - Shakespeares Son - Lay €63.75c @ 4.3 (Liability €210.35c)

Poor low level handicapper who hasn't won for 2 years and has only won 1 time from 45 career starts. That win came over 5f and he is 0 from 26 at this 6f trip. He has a tendency to be beaten at low odds in running and has never ran too well in his 6 runs at this track. He is in good form of late but has went up 3lbs after coming 2nd last time out at Wolverhampton. Kempton is usually suited to front runners and this fellow is usually held up to run on late, he also has been drawn in stall 4 which isn't ideal over 6f here and ideally you want to be drawn high, with the outside stall winning over 1/3 of the races here. His yard has had 11 winners out of 128 runners this season including a couple at this course, they're a small enough yard and have had plenty of horses beaten at short enough odds. I reckon this fellow will be another one in what looks a weak yet tough race. Many here are in with chances, Guildenstern is well handicapped and now 2lbs lower than when winning at this course in February. He has huge claims off a mark of 52 at a course he has won at on 3 occasions. Mansii could have a chance off a mark 2lbs lower than his last winning run, he also has the brilliant Dane O'Neill on board and should appreciate the step up to 6f. Swansea Jack could try and make all from a perfect draw in stall 10, he is unexposed and open to more improvement, I also noted him as one to follow not long ago and if he puts his best foot forward he could go well. Ayam Zainah could go well for Mick Channon, will appreciate the drop in trip and blinkers have improved her a lot. She's still a maiden but is well bred and open to a lot of improvement and has Cathy Gannon in the saddle.

Many others have claims too and I have to oppose a horse who has only won once in 45 runs and never at this trip. Richard Hughes is the reason he's such a short price and all going well he'll hopefully be beaten. At just under 7/2 he's no value at all, I'd want 6/1 before going near him and even at that I wouldn't be too happy. It's a tough race to call and I fancy one of the 3 year olds to take it, hopefully. Risky in term of liability but worth it, in my opinion.

Moffo

Big risk Pyro...best of luck with it. Fingers crossed

darsar

I'm on @ 4.68. Co'mon fail horsey fail!

x PyRo

Cheers Moffo, I'm not too worried either way as I was so close to laying the same amount on Byrony in the 7:40 and he won, so I got lucky there!

Edit : Good luck Darsar, hopefully he doesn't even make the frame. I could do with a nice easy one.

DOC09UNAM

Best of luck Pyro.

Risk breeds reward as they say

x PyRo

Or epic failure. :pac: I got lucky today as most of the ones I wanted to lay (but didn't) ended up winning. Hopefully this isn't the case here.

Gavin "shels"

x PyRo wrote: »

Or epic failure. :pac:

Hopefully, I have Shakespearseson in a double with Rigid!;)

x PyRo

Hopefully you lose then.

yaaaboy

definitely dont fancy it but dont like the price so instead of laying i backed ayam & guilder to win

Moffo

Well done again my man...great call. You might have been sweating there for a bit

x PyRo

Never in doubt Moffo.

x PyRo wrote: »

Mansii (3rd) could have a chance off a mark 2lbs lower than his last winning run, he also has the brilliant Dane O'Neill on board and should appreciate the step up to 6f. Swansea Jack (1st) could try and make all from a perfect draw in stall 10, he is unexposed and open to more improvement, I also noted him as one to follow not long ago and if he puts his best foot forward he could go well. Ayam Zainah (2nd) could go well for Mick Channon, will appreciate the drop in trip and blinkers have improved her a lot. She's still a maiden but is well bred and open to a lot of improvement and has Cathy Gannon in the saddle.

Tricast! :pac:

Bank - €1174.10c (+€174.10c)

Bets placed - 7
Successful - 6
SR - 85%
Won - €193.10
Lost - €19

UrbanSea

Handicaps are an absolute dream for layers,good call.

NaiveMelodies

That was some gamble on Swansea Jack, well in!

Technique

I got into laying a few years ago and wouldn't be bothered with backing now. I have a limited knowledge of horse racing, so my strategy is laying relatively low priced 2nd favourites. I only dabble with €3 or €4 stakes and a small bank of around €50 - €100, but I've always been in the black. Unfortunately working with a small bank means that a couple of losing bets in a row leaves you busted and starting over again.

I'm looking forward to following this thread, as the choices are being based on an in-depth racing knowledge and some good old-fashioned cold hard logic!

darsar

only1stevo wrote: »

That was some gamble on Swansea Jack, well in!

There was some money coming alright! Great to see when you've layed the then fav!

Gavin "shels"

Definitely going to start following this once I get my wages on Friday and see how the bank balance is looking, so a few nice picks on here over the weekend please.:D

SoulTrader

Damn it, I missed today's! I was already in work and can't access Betfair. You did good again though, keep it up!

x PyRo

Gavin shels wrote: »

Definitely going to start following this once I get my wages on Friday and see how the bank balance is looking, so a few nice picks on here over the weekend please.:D

Good stuff Gav, I'm not sure what the story for the weekend will be as most of the shorter prices will still be quite high in terms of what I'm comfortable with. I only want to be laying around the 2/1-3/1 mark but will go as far as 5's. With the better quality racing being more open the favs are usually high enough, pricewise. So I mightn't get a chance to lay but I'll see what I can do.

SoulTrader wrote: »

Damn it, I missed today's! I was already in work and can't access Betfair. You did good again though, keep it up!

Sorry about posting it late dude, I didn't intent on doing one at all after the others had won, I thought it was my lucky day! I got tempted by that one but could only get it posted 2 hours before that race. I usually like to have them up well in advance but with prices fluctuating so much it's better to wait sometimes. I'll hopefully have a nice one for tomorrow to make up for missing that one.

Plenty of people seem interested in the thread so I'm delighted with that, hopefully it'll work out well in the long term. Tidy profit so far, although I was a bit mental risking over €200 on that one today but I was highly confident, won't happen again. :pac:

x PyRo

Risky one again. :pac: An odds on AP McCoy horse but opposable in my opinion.

2:20 Wincanton - Northern Lad - Lay €45.98 @ 1.87 (Liability €40)

Easy winner last time out, that was his first win in 16 attempts, he did it nicely when winning by 6 lengths but it was a very weak race and he's now stepped up to a trip that I'm not sure he'll stay. That race was over 2m 3f and he now has to run over 2m 6f, he just about stays 2 and a half miles and he ran twice over 2m 5f and was beaten by 89 and 41 lengths. The ground is also against him, he won on Good to Soft last time out and today it's likely to be bordering on Good to Firm, ground he has only experienced once when AP was also in the saddle over 2m 1f at Market Rasen, he was beaten by 16 lengths that day and didn't seem to enjoy the ground at all. That was also off a mark of 1lb lower than he is today. Although he does get to race off the same mark as when winning last time I think he certainly shouldn't be an odd-on shot, he has to contend with top weight too, Jim Best trains him and although he and McCoy strike up an impressive partnership they are prone to very short priced losers, I think this fellow fits the bill as another potential loser and even if he does win he's at a price worth taking on. He doesn't strike as the best of jumpers and holds his head very awkwardly, he was suited by the slower ground and quickly set tempo last time out and with no real pace in this race he could struggle to pass the field as easily as he did when winning. Himitas is the one I fancy, he ran well for a long time last time out and is now dropped 2f from the 3m trip he contested, if he runs to ability he could have a good chance and he has a decent 7lb claimer on board too. He should appreciate the ground and runs well when going right handed, which he returns to here. He's 7.2 at the moment and certainly has a better chance than the odds suggest. Heir To Be looks well handicapped if running to his previous form, now 5 and 12lbs lower than his last 2 wins, which where last year. He's back to his favoured 2m 6f trip and if his jumping clicks he may prove a lot better than his 23.0 price tag. A few others have decent claims too, Rash Judgement may be 11 years old now but has been very consistent of late. He looks well in on old form and despite a penalty from his win on his penultimate start a mark of 88 may not be beyond him, even in his twilight years. The trip is perfect and a return to quicker ground will also help, he's too big at 11.5 and may well enjoy the spin over hurdles for a change, he has been racing over the bigger obstacles for a while now but has the ability to do well here if on a going day. I'm taking a chance by laying Northern Lad as he does have a lot going for him based on his win last time out but he's opposable at the prices, I'd want 2/1 before I'd go near him and he's worth a small lay for decent returns if he's beaten and a smallish loss if he wins. There's no value at 1.87 and if it wasn't McCoy on board he'd be at least double that, possibly more. Ground, trip and how the race will be run are all a concern for me and hopefully he'll prove me right.

darsar

That's a Roger!

x PyRo

What's a Roger? :pac:

darsar

x PyRo wrote: »

What's a Roger? :pac:

A Roger meaning I'm in your Northern Lad lay at 1.87! €21.35 for a €20 liability. Not even a risk as it's money you won me.

x PyRo

I was wondering what the hell you were on about. :pac:

Hopefully he's lucky for us, small risk for tidy returns just to see him lose. If he goes off odds on I will be slightly surprised. I thought he'd be around 6/4, which is still too short.

morninwood

i'm in at 1.88

Moffo

I'm also on board at 1.88 that was about an hour ago.
Best of luck again Pyro, hope its another loser !

L'prof

x PyRo wrote: »

2:20 Wincanton - Northern Lad - Lay €45.98 @ 1.87 (Liability €40)

Laying Tony? I like it!