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One to keep an eye on!

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,778 ✭✭✭up for anything


    Scary very recent pic. I wouldn't like to look out my window and see that bearing down on my area. :(

    http://plixi.com/p/54845826

    The caption using giggle translation reads "The clot thickens Muntilan dr this morning Via @ jengajeng"


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,778 ✭✭✭up for anything


    Ye Gods, you'd expect to see Pierce Brosnan getting out of that vehicle!

    http://plixi.com/p/54866876

    Ok sorry, apparently that photo isn't from Merapi but Mt Pinatubo back in the 90s. Still shiver making though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,778 ✭✭✭up for anything




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,778 ✭✭✭up for anything


    Twitter Is a Key Rescue Tool for Victims in Indonesia
    Locals in Indonesia band together on Twitter to deliver information to victims of the Mount Merapi eruption.

    The people of Indonesia can't seem to get a break. The volcanic eruption of Mount Merapi that started Monday, Oct. 26, just isn't letting up. Scientists say the end that Indonesians are praying for isn't around the corner; it's more like a "marathon, not a sprint." With flights being cancelled, shelters at capacity and loved ones still missing, these people need some help.

    One group of local villagers, the Jalin Malapi, has taken aid efforts into its own hands. They're using Twitter.

    As the Jakarta Globe reports, Twitter has become the key tool for mobilization efforts. The Jalin Malapi's founder, Sukiman Mochtar Pratomo, said, "Within a very short time, we had more than 9,000 followers. We share links from various sources and re-tweet information from people related to the crisis of Mount Merapi." An Indonesian citizen even said that the information the Jalin Malapi is providing via Twitter (at @jalinmerapi), is better than that of the local government.

    This group has stayed back and withstood clouds of ash, smoke and fire to tweet information to their 9,000-plus followers. They ensure their friends and neighbors know what's coming, where to go and whom to call. Just this past week, the Jalin Merapi account was able to mobilize nearly 500 volunteers to assist relief efforts around the area.

    One resident of the nearby Bantul district tweeted, "We thank @jalanmerapi for working hard to share information about the state of Mount Merapi."

    Even a dark, volcanic ash-filled cloud has a silver lining. At Mount Merapi, it's people joining together to help their neighbors when they need it most.

    I've just been told that @jalanmerapi is trying to arrange English translations of their tweets if any of you fancy following them to get a flavour of immediate goings on. 'Proper' English that is and not giggle translations. ETA: English tweets from Jalin Merapi on @jalinmerapi_en


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Scientists — shaking their heads as they watched the wide, fast sweeps of a needle on a seismograph — worried that the worst might be yet to come.

    "It looks like we may be entering an even worse stage," said Surono, a state volcanologist, who'd earlier said a week of continual eruptions appeared to be easing pressure behind the magma dome lodged in the Mount Merapi's crater. "We have no idea what's happening now."


    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40003339/ns/world_news-asiapacific/


  • Registered Users Posts: 347 ✭✭isle of man


    Towering clouds of hot ash gushed from the mouth of Indonesia's deadly volcano Thursday, forcing motorists in cities 20 miles (30 kilometers) away to use their headlights in broad daylight and raising concerns about aviation safety. The death toll climbed to 44. As rocks and ash rained from the sky, soldiers helped load thousands of frightened villagers into trucks for a second day, including those seeking shelter in crowded emergency shelters. Merapi's more than a dozen powerful blasts and thousands of volcanic tremors and ash bursts since Oct. 26 temporarily shut nearby airports and - in recent days - closed air routes affected by the ash. With no winds early Thursday, white clouds shot a spectacular 20,000 feet (6,000 meters) into the sky. Gusts later carried the smoke westward, with cities and towns up to 240 kilometers (150 miles) dusted in white power. "I have asked the air transportation authorities to make sure the ash isn't affecting visibility, " said state volcanologist Surono, as motorists in the ancient city of Yogyakarta, where one airport is located, navigated dust-choked streets. Officials insisted, however, that a Qantas jetliner forced to make an emergency landing after one of its four engines failed over Batam, an island 800 miles (1,400 kilometers) to the west, was unrelated. "There was no connection with Mount Merapi," said Bambang Ervan, a spokesman for the Transportation Ministry. "It was too far from the volcano - the sky over Singapore and Sumatra island is free of dust. " Scientists said pressure apparently building inside Merapi's crater may mean the worst is yet to come.

    "It's never acted like this before," Surono said after watching the wide, fast sweeps of a needle on a seismograph machine. "It looks like we may be entering an even worse stage." The volcano, one of the world's most active, has erupted many times in the last century, often with deadly results. The number of people killed since it burst back to life just over a week ago climbed to 44, said Eka Saputra, a disaster official, raising the toll after three people died in a powerful eruption Wednesday and another succumbed to injuries from an earlier blast. In 1994, 60 people were killed, while in 1930, more than a dozen villages were torched, leaving up to 1,300 dead. But as with almost all the blueish-gray volcanoes jetting from the landscape in this seismically charged country, tens of thousands of people live on the mountain's rolling slopes, drawn to soil made fertile by generations of molten lava and volcanic debris. More than 75,000 are now packed in crowded government camps well away from the base and, with no sign Merapi is going to quiet any time soon, may have to stay for weeks, or possibly months. Some officials warned food, water and other supplies were running short.

    Mount Merapi's danger zone was widened Wednesday from six miles to nine miles (10 to 15 kilometers) from the peak. Even so, dozens of villagers displaced by the disaster took advantage of brief lull in activity Thursday afternoon to head back up the mountain to check on their livestock. "We are really scared, but we have to feed our cattle," said Sukadi, a 48-year-old farmer, as he brought grass to Boyong, his village six miles (nine kilometers) from the crater. "We're just going quickly," added Semin, 54, his friend. "We'll head back to the camp as soon as we're done... our families are there." Indonesia, a vast archipelago of 235 million people, is prone to earthquakes and volcanos because it sits along the Pacific "Ring of Fire," a horseshoe-shaped string of faults that lines the Pacific. The volcano's initial blast occurred less than 24 hours after a towering tsunami slammed into the remote Mentawai islands on the western end of the country, sweeping entire villages to sea and killing at least 428 people. There, too, thousands of people were displaced, many living in government camps.

    Its the bit in red that worrys me.
    when somebody that knows what there doing is saying they never seen it before you tend to think its going to be bad


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,778 ✭✭✭up for anything


    Things looking very bad there.
    Merapi Extended Danger Zone Being 20 km

    This is the second expansion radius safe for Merapi.
    FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2010, 00:48 GMT Ismoko Widjaya, Sandy Adam Mahaputra

    VIVAnews – Mount Merapi activity continues to increase. Now, the radius or safe zones for refugees and local people are no longer extended to the maximum point of 15 kilometers.

    “It was only resolved radius is extended to 20 kilometers,” said the Special Staff of the President of Disaster and Social Affairs, Andi Arief, in a written statement of account twitter, Thursday, November 4, 2010.

    This is the second expansion radius safe for Merapi. Initially, the Centre for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (PVMBG) The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources set safe area reached the limit of 10 kilometers. Subsequently extended again to 15 kilometers because of the eruption and a large heat clouds glide compared to the first eruption on 26 October.

    Increased activity of Merapi occurred before midnight or early morning Friday, November 5, 2010. Increased activity of Merapi is marked with a thunderous roar that did not stop.

    Rumbling sound and improved visual activity of Merapi is warranted Harry Dharmawan citizens Sinduhardjo, choosed, Sleman, Yogyakarta, which is at 7.8 miles Roads Kaliurang, DIY.

    “The voice of thunder sounded from a few minutes before midnight. Until now the clamor has not stopped and still sound,” said Harry to VIVAnews.com. According to Harry, a roar that sounded a row about every two minutes.
    • VIVAnews


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,778 ✭✭✭up for anything


    It seems that even the hardline, non-predicting scientists and volcano experts are now thinking out loud that it may become a Mt Pinatubo type explosion.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,778 ✭✭✭up for anything


    Things looking very dicey in Merapi. The locals can suddenly no longer hear the mountain but windows are rattling 40km away. This apparently is not good news as it could mean a blockage and then mega-explosion.
    No sound can be very bad; a bigger eruption can throw the sound farther away as Spurr did….. The sound jumped over Anchorage and deafened the climbers on Mt. McKinley.

    :(

    This quote from a young girl in one of the refugee camps.
    yes no sound brian…i really want to go up..wow,alot people injured..burning skin maybe…curious


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,778 ✭✭✭up for anything


    From the Iceland Volcano and Earthquake Blog

    The following conversation is what I mean when I say the sciencey types are beginning to worry out loud. Jon normally squashes people flat if they start going off into flights of volcanic eruption fancy.
    Jón Frímann says:
    November 4, 2010 at 19:54
    The problem with mountains like Merapi is that they blow them self up into air on regular basic. This might happen 1000 to 100.000 years or more intervals. It depends on the volcano in question. But for Merapi I am starting to see the signs based on the data that I am currently getting (they are little, but good enough).

    Pieter says:
    November 4, 2010 at 20:56
    What kind of scenario do you think might happen? Something like St. Helens? (Lava dome extrusion and half of the mountain collapse)
    And on which signs do you base your opinion?

    Jón Frímann says:
    November 4, 2010 at 21:10
    I am thinking some type of caldera formation is going to take place. My math suggests that everything in 50 km radius around the mountain is in danger at current time. As I cannot accurately predict when the caldera formation phase starts.

    The next small eruption should take place in 40 to 270 min time or so (according to the math formula that I am working on). But given lack of data, that might be wrong on that.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Thanks Upforanything.

    that is most unusual for Jón Frímann to be so specific and almost painting the 'worst case' scenario as being possible.

    it's been said in recent days that merapi bears many similarities to krakatoa before it finally blew it's top in 1880. There were a number of large eruptions before things went quite for a day or two and then the main eruption.

    The effects of a mega eruption on our climate, particularly in 2011, would be significant.

    1883 Krakatoa eruption resulted in more than five years of cold winters across the world. Mount Pinatubo in 1991 cooled global temperatures for about 2–3 years.

    I hope they extend the exclusion zone to the 50kms he is referring to.


  • Registered Users Posts: 347 ✭✭isle of man


    was just about to post that.

    shes getting warm up there,
    building and building.

    9 miles that went. and to think if she does blow big time how far it will go


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,584 ✭✭✭digme


    I was just going to ask you what they meant, lol dam.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,778 ✭✭✭up for anything


    I think but don't hold me to it that those are the last ones shown on the seismograph since either yesterday or today. The webicoders and cams are all not working. Constant eruption there since Wednesday has seen them off I would think. But no, they weren't good news at all.

    A village 15km away from Merapi was hit by pyroclastic flows and it seems that the worst hasn't taken place yet. :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    I think but don't hold me to it that those are the last ones shown on the seismograph since either yesterday or today. The webicoders and cams are all not working. Constant eruption there since Wednesday has seen them off I would think. But no, they weren't good news at all.

    A village 15km away from Merapi was hit by pyroclastic flows and it seems that the worst hasn't taken place yet. :(

    :eek: wow,thats :eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,778 ✭✭✭up for anything


    It is, isn't it!

    I'm reading and translating tweets and the logistics of the whole refugee operation is staggering. It's a nightmare scenario there and doubts are beginning to creep in that the refugees are still too close at 20km. I think I heard that were 25,000 in one location alone in a sports stadium under the open sky. Doesn't bear thinking about. They are short of everything. I hope that Brian Cowen already has a plane load on the way but I doubt it. We moan and bitch about what we have and what is being taken away from us but we are so lucky really. I've been trying to imagine someone knocking on the door this minute and telling me I had five minutes to grab what I could for me and the kids and leave for some strange place for god knows how long! I wouldn't know what to do or where to start.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    It is, isn't it!

    I'm reading and translating tweets and the logistics of the whole refugee operation is staggering. It's a nightmare scenario there and doubts are beginning to creep in that the refugees are still too close at 20km. I think I heard that were 25,000 in one location alone in a sports stadium under the open sky. Doesn't bear thinking about. They are short of everything. I hope that Brian Cowen already has a plane load on the way but I doubt it. We moan and bitch about what we have and what is being taken away from us but we are so lucky really. I've been trying to imagine someone knocking on the door this minute and telling me I had five minutes to grab what I could for me and the kids and leave for some strange place for god knows how long! I wouldn't know what to do or where to start.
    natures fury im afraid,up for anything you have done a brill job on this thread(been lurking sorry) but do you know if people have been told in time to leave,must be very frightening situation


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,778 ✭✭✭up for anything


    Thank you :D

    As far as I can gather they were all told to leave in time but I imagine the logistics of getting them out of there was a nightmare between the rain, ash, the constant roar of the volcano for hours on end, avoiding lahars, lack of transportation etc. The village that got PF'd was 15km which was on the edge of the earlier exclusion zone. I would imagine that they were getting around to them. Can you imagine trying to evacuate any Irish village or town at the drop of a hat!! There are upwards of 90K refugees now. :eek:

    Here you go, delw. A quote from a lady in the thick of it. She puts it better than I can.
    NINGTYAS SIDHI on November 4, 2010, 10:16 PM
    @Ikmar
    Kompas said that many people found dead near Kali Gendol. But the volcanologists said that people living near rivers must be aware because of the danger.

    And its not very easy for the the authority to increase the danger zone because it means many people have to be evacuated. Now that the danger zone has grown to 20 km radius, the people that must be evacuated is about 200 thousands people. The volcanologists have tried what they can to minimize the casualties, if not perhaps the victims will be thousands people, God forbid

    And also I see it is not very easy


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,778 ✭✭✭up for anything


    Trying to catch up on what's been happening since I went to sleep. Too much to label so I'm just going to post links without headings.

    These quotes from Big Think first though. One is weather related, one human interest.
    http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/ir_sat.html?region=aus&loop=yes&images=48&allday=&start=&stop=#nav

    Okay folks… One last satellite pic and its in the grey/whitescale of the eruption.

    Most have seen the Indian Ocean side of it and now we have the Australian side.

    Now how to interpret? Load the link. It may take a bit for all of the images to run so let it finish. It will smooth up as it goes. There is no zoom on this one. But, its easier to see this mug going off. Watch in mid Java and you will see what looks like weather. Its not. Its the precursor eruption from yesterday to 35,000 feet. Then, look closely and you will see a donut hole form right in the middle of all that white ash cloud. Its a clear cut indication of a major eruption and its the same thing noted on Tuesday. It donuted. On Tuesday it just stopped and we called it Vulcanian rather than Plinian. Okay, you are just as dead or worse you get to live half cooked on one side. Wont argue it. But, Erik and a few others were aware of an apparent 3 foot bulge at the base that was interpeted by the locals as a pyroclastic flow and mounding. I think thats what happened here. It just launched. If you watch the video you can see its still there and still floating around. Loads of energy and I cant get a good shot at the ground until it clears at least some. Even IR will not penetrate whats down there except the hottest points.

    Boris is likely going to be awake soon so if you got VOLCANO pics, send them to him and I can back it up at around noon Memphis time with maybe some heat pics.

    To answer a question earlier posed… is this done? I doubt it seriously. If the high power cams are right, we are missing the chunk of the front of the collapse section. So a dome has to build before it will seal itself but thats for Erik and Boris to decide. Send those pics to them.

    Will it change the climate? Slightly I think for now. There is no data on compositions but acid is for sure up there and it for sure eats clouds. Hot summers, very cold winters. Its also going the wrong way for the time being to screw with the weather in the N. Hemisphere… Floods ? In S. Hemisphere. Maybe.
    ENDRIA KIRTI on November 5, 2010, 3:46 AM
    Diana dont worry i am not afraid anymore now, if i must die just die
    This place need me and all of u if u have chance to say something to your love ones say it now before u dont have chance
    there was a dead body split two parts scarry



    JON FRIMANN JONSSON on November 5, 2010, 4:12 AM
    @endria kirti, You should leave the area you are in and go no less then 50 km away from the volcano. As it might enter it’s dangerous phase at any moment and without any warning at all. There is no point in you being there or die there if you can avoid it. You still have chance of leaving. But the clock is ticking down and fast at this time.

    Anything within 10 to 15 km radius is not going to survive that phase in my estimate. I do hope that Indonesian authorities can deal with what is coming to them from that volcano. I also hope that they can save as many people as possible from the volcano.

    This is an assortment of photos, articles, satellite images, ash cloud advisory etc.

    http://plixi.com/p/54767744

    http://plixi.com/p/54274562

    http://plixi.com/p/54274562

    http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD41295.shtml

    http://twitpic.com/340au0

    http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/ir_sat.html?region=aus&loop=yes&images=48&allday=&start=&stop=#nav

    http://plixi.com/p/55035283

    http://plixi.com/p/55033077

    http://twitpic.com/340f5c

    http://plixi.com/p/54818407

    http://plixi.com/p/55017075

    http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=555264&o=all&op=1&view=all&subj=160531093975591&id=100000494627395

    http://www.tempointeraktif.com/hg/jogja/2010/11/05/brk,20101105-289588,id.html

    http://www.tempointeraktif.com/hg/jogja/2010/11/04/brk,20101104-289448,id.html


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,778 ✭✭✭up for anything




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,204 ✭✭✭eskimocat


    WOW upforanything! this thread is absolutely unreal. Its a real glimpse into whats happening out there! The text above, talking about the range of danger is frightening! Please keep posting, thank you.


  • Posts: 6,025 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    eskimocat wrote: »
    WOW upforanything! this thread is absolutely unreal. Its a real glimpse into whats happening out there! The text above, talking about the range of danger is frightening! Please keep posting, thank you.

    Plus one!! :) keep it coming :) your info is brilliant.


    Scary bloody times, I think anyway. Hurricanes volcanos fireballs.:eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 347 ✭✭isle of man


    http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/indonesian-officials-warn-yogyakarta-could-be-in-firing-line/405220

    Winds, he said, were also responsible for the heat clouds gliding as far as 17 kilometers from the crater on Friday — something geologists never expected to happen — and destroying hamlets previously thought safe.

    also worth a read
    http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/blast-from-indonesia-volcano-raises-deaths-to-122/405129

    and to note.
    That they reckon that the ash has got to the upper layers so may cause some cooling over time.

    Theres concerns over cold lava which is eating away bridgers and river banks, plus rain is expected in a few days which will make things worse.

    A team of experts in geology and volcanology declare that the lava dome of Merapi volcano collapsed. a strong suspicion that the lava dome has been lost due to landslides or destroyed by a big explosion yesterday

    And the most worrying that i have found
    http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?hl=de&ie=UTF-8&sl=de&tl=en&u=http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/0,1518,727092,00.html&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.de&usg=ALkJrhgA64vn2aQ0dQ66ub77IsglVP2zqw
    A discovery that was made four years ago under the mountain reinforced the concern of the researchers: There seems to be a huge seething magma reservoir. Earthquake waves, seismologists measured. The object in the ground was "unprecedented," said Birger Luehr, volcanologist at the GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam. There lies a "giant sponge-like body, a kind of mud." Presumably, it constitutes around Magma says Luehr. A rough estimate shows that the reservoir contains three times as much magma as the eruption of Tambora volcano, Indonesia also has been spat out 1815 - the largest outbreak of the last 10,000 years, allowed to cool the world's climate for years to come..

    This if true could spell vary bad news for the whole world, would prob be a VEI 7 at least.
    which would not be good.

    Ment to be first pics of it since the fog lifted for 2 days
    http://www.daylife.com/photo/0dyS00yeLb05p?q=volcano

    mud flow
    http://www.metrotvnews.com/iwitness/play.php?vid=3936

    latest is she is going quiet again,
    could be the end or could be a lull in activity, noboody will say what it is as they do not know


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Der Spiegel reports on the growling-ever-louder Indonesian Merapi volcano in an article titled: Geologists Warning of Mega-Eruption of Merapi. The Merapi eruptions are becoming more violent – and the big bang could be just ahead. The Indonesian volcano has been spewing 800°C ash clouds for days.

    Investigations of the volcano have revealed that an unprecedented Magma reservoir lurks underneath it, says Birger Lühr, a volcano researcher at the GFZ in Potsdam, Germany

    A rough estimate indicates that there is three times more magma than what was ejected by the Indonesian volcano Tambora in 1815 – the biggest eruption in the last 10,000 years, which led to a cooling of the climate globally
    .

    Geoscientists aren’t sure what to make of this huge magma reservoir. As Der Spiegel reports, they are hesitant to make predictions of catastrophe (That’s only done in climate science
    , even though the odds are far less).
    Word of a ‘mega-eruption’ is making the rounds among scientists. But apparently they are avoiding the use of the word to avoid being labelled preachers of disasters.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    3 times bigger than Tambora?

    That would be...unbelievable. I cannot even get my head around that.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,778 ✭✭✭up for anything


    Isle of Man - comments from elsewhere on the Spiegel article
    BORIS BEHNCKE on November 5, 2010, 11:47 AM
    @Thomas Wipf, talk about a “mega-eruption” is speculation, and the Spiegel article does in fact conclude saying that currently no signs are observed which indicate that such a huge eruption is about to occur. It’s all about the discovery by German scientists of a zone where seismic waves are significantly attenuated, which normally is a hint for the presence of partially molten rock. So that’s probably a major magma reservoir; the discovery was made in 2006.

    The thing is, we also have a very large, deep magma reservoir beneath Etna, whose volume has been estimated at a few thousand cubic kilometers. In nearly all cases, only very tiny fractions of such volumes ever reach the surface. Like Etna, Merapi is erupting very, very frequently, which reduces, to some degree, the risk of a gigantic, cataclysmic eruption. In most cases, very large eruptions – we’re talking Pinatubo or Krakatau-sized events – occur after long repose periods. So I hope Merapi doesn’t actually consider such a “mega-eruption” scenario a good idea.
    LURKING on November 5, 2010, 11:54 AM
    @Thomas Wipf

    I would think that anytime a media outlet starts using words like “mega___”, or “super-colossal _______” that they are worried about loosing readers and are trying to drum up interest.

    Is there a magma feed? Yes. Large? Probably, most of Indonesia is made up of a chain of vo

    lcanoes that result from the subduction zone that it sits next to.
    LURKING on November 5, 2010, 12:08 PM
    Re: Spiegel article

    Now that I’ve thought about it. I find the entire precept behind this article to be repugnant and morally reprehensible.

    It’s one thing to report on new findings and statements of fact, it’s another to try and claim a bit of fame and fortune at the expense of an entire county and hundreds of thousands of people trying to deal with a crisis.

    Only because they are in the news and you want to be too.

    Nah.. In my opinion, Der Speigel and Birger Luehr can go pack sand.

    Hope these help to place article in perspective.


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