Galway House Prices Still Too High

musharra

Here is an old post I stuck up in May 2010. I’ve updated the few that have changed with Oct ‘10 asking prices…’as if knocking a few grand was going to do anything come on’. Anyhow it’s interesting they’re all still for sale on daft.
In the original post it was interesting to see the number of people trying to defend the inflated prices in Galway…let’s see what sort of discussion this throws up now.:rolleyes:
Moderator I’ll leave it up to you to leave in the Galway forum or switch it to property forum.


(From May 2010)
The below is an example of the crazy 'asking price' still out there and what I
believe anyone with sense should consider pay for them.
I realize these are just asking prices but in majority of cases this price is ~20k
over the min the sellers are willing to accept (based on queries)

www.daft.ie/1461613 Merlin Lane 420,000 max 170,000. (Oct ’10 420K)
www.daft.ie/1454018 Knocknacarra 350.000 max 200,000 (Oct ’10 350K)
www.daft.ie/1509259 Ballybane 275,000 not worth 150k (Oct ’10 Price On Application)
www.daft.ie/1494788 Oranmore 350,000 max 190k now €295,000 (Oct ’10 350k)
www.daft.ie/1524563 Moycullen 475,000 not worth half i.e. 236,000 (Oct ’10 420K)
www.daft.ie/1485798 Kilcolgan 475,000 may be worth half i.e. 236,000 (Oct ’10 €427,500)
www.daft.ie/1519555 Rahoon 329,000 max 220,000 . (Oct ’10 329K)

swe_fi

musharra wrote: »

Here is an old post I stuck up in May 2010. I’ve updated the few that have changed with Oct ‘10 asking prices…’as if knocking a few grand was going to do anything come on’. Anyhow it’s interesting they’re all still for sale on daft.
In the original post it was interesting to see the number of people trying to defend the inflated prices in Galway…let’s see what sort of discussion this throws up now.:rolleyes:
Moderator I’ll leave it up to you to leave in the Galway forum or switch it to property forum.


(From May 2010)
The below is an example of the crazy 'asking price' still out there and what I
believe anyone with sense should consider pay for them.
I realize these are just asking prices but in majority of cases this price is ~20k
over the min the sellers are willing to accept (based on queries)

www.daft.ie/1461613 Merlin Lane 420,000 max 170,000. (Oct ’10 420K)
www.daft.ie/1454018 Knocknacarra 350.000 max 200,000 (Oct ’10 420K)
www.daft.ie/1509259 Ballybane 275,000 not worth 150k (Oct ’10 Price On Application)
www.daft.ie/1494788 Oranmore 350,000 max 190k now €295,000 (Oct ’10 350k)
www.daft.ie/1524563 Moycullen 475,000 not worth half i.e. 236,000 (Oct ’10 420K)
www.daft.ie/1485798 Kilcolgan 475,000 may be worth half i.e. 236,000 (Oct ’10 €427,500)
www.daft.ie/1519555 Rahoon 329,000 max 220,000 . (Oct ’10 329K)

I kind of like what you are doing but just curious, what do you base YOUR valuations on? I'm not saying they are too high or too low just interested.

Some pretty interesting graphs here
http://daftwatch.thepropertypin.com/county-breakdown/galway/

McTigs

Oh i remember that thread, people got very excited indeed.

Asking prices mean pretty much nothing this weather. Truth is nobody knows what any house should be valued at and nobody knows where the bottom is. One thing is certain, we just had one of the biggest property bubbles in world history and prices for the past ten years cannot be taken as a guide of present value

There's all kinds of formulas and models regarding rental yeild and average wages with plenty of variables which all point to further drops. Vendor Delusion is keeping asking prices quite high and that will take a few years to level out.

Example is i had a quick look on daft the other day and there were three houses for sale on Ashe Road, Shantalla. All three were the same terraced house basically (same size, same size back yard, same condition more or less). one for 365k, one for 285k and one for 220k. The one for 220 was probably the best of them from the photos

Any sensible lemon looking to buy a house will wait a while to see what happens. Too much uncertainty right now with the general economy to make such a massive financial commitment.

Amhran Nua

swe_fi wrote: »

Some pretty interesting graphs here
http://daftwatch.thepropertypin.com/county-breakdown/galway/

That is extremely interesting, see how the rents spike up sharply in September and fall in May? Unpleasant to be a student in Galway. Usually a good metric for house prices is a multiple of rent, since rents follow demand more quickly than property prices, so 12-15 times annual rent would be considered a realistic price, as no investor should consider less than 7% returns, more like 6 or 5% if you factor in empty times. Even with rents fluctuating so much though, I think there is a long way to go before prices hit bottom in Galway yet.

What you have is a lot of people on the outskirts of the city waiting for NAMA to make their acreage worth €30,000 a pop again, and others taking the "long view" of that block of single bedroom apartments in Barna. Prices in the city are becoming more reasonable more quickly though. The question is, how long will it take for the near religious faith in the property mantras built up over the last ten years to finally fade away?

swe_fi

I forgot this one

http://www.irishpropertywatch.com/

You can put in an exact object and it will tell you the pricing history, although it is just asking price and not the most intelligent search function. If you mess around a bit you'll find info. This information is available publicly or should i say openly in many countries. This is relevant to Galway because the house prices have fallen the most here, will keep falling and rightly so. I genuinely cannot understand people who defend the pricing of houses here (there will always be a few).

galwayfellaBETA

Galway house prices are still WAY too high. There is still a lot of Vendor delusion out there. Quite simply "the banks won't" and "people can't" give the money they use to for property in the 'good times'. Big falls still to come.

I bought in Renmore about 6 years ago, I've been watching prices here ever since. If you look at what is on sale on daft, they range from 220 to 350ish. Anything above 250k is still 'Celtic Tiger Prices'. IMHO these houses are worth 130 for poorly kept ones to 200k for the well kept/modernised ones.

It continually amazes me that the public/media view the lowering of house prices as a bad thing.

This country is on the brink of a MAJOR catastrophe, it could be the biggest ever seen (all thanks to our Fianna Fail overlords (NOT the Lehman's collapse as they would like you to believe!!)), you would be off your head to either, A. have large savings in an Irish bank or, B. buy into the Irish property market at this moment.

For proper debate on the current state of the morket/Ireland see www.thepropertypin.com

GotBainne?

Estate Agent Tales:
#1. I was talking to an estate agent in Galway recently and was told that house prices are on the rise again and people would be silly now to buy now or they would regret it. Now, if I was green, young and innocent I might think O My , I should buy now.

#2. A friend of mine has just started working in an estate agent and now he keeps telling me, O yes, prices are on the rise, you should buy now.

#3. 2 weeks ago I viewed a housing development in Galway (a development that had been dormant for at least 2 years). They had an open day. I asked what the price was for one of the houses, they told me a price and I asked was there any negotiation on the price of the house and they said No way, that is the price and that is it. They made a swift exit; it was like I had offended them by asking to negotiate on the price of the house.

These are 3 experiences I have had with estate agents in Galway recently and they were all different estate agents.

Has anyone had any other experiences with estate agents in Galway? Do you think they are one of the reasons why house prices are still high in Galway (i.e. inflated) ?

GB
Homeless but happy

Amhran Nua

galwayfellaBETA wrote: »

This country is on the brink of a MAJOR catastrophe

Why do you think that?

galwayfellaBETA

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Why do you think that?

Next year is 2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cyCCd8MCcZY

Amhran Nua

galwayfellaBETA wrote: »

Next year is 2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cyCCd8MCcZY

Ah I see, although how FF got the Mayans to time it right it as anyone's guess. Shouldn't you be taking out a huge loan and going on a year-long bender in Thailand or something so?

galwayfellaBETA

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Ah I see, although how FF got the Mayans to time it right it as anyone's guess. Shouldn't you be taking out a huge loan and going on a year-long bender in Thailand or something so?

If only I was ten years younger.... We are seriously looking at selling the house and emigrating for good. I really don't feel like hanging around here paying higher taxes on meager wages for **** all social services, all because FF & their developer friends were to busy at the trough to notice that they were making a mess of things.

skelliser

be interesting to see this same thread in 6 months.
Reckon we will finally see more downward pricing.

Iv stated my opinions in the last thread and stand by them.

btw how has that house in knocknacarra gone up by 70k?!!

fend

GotBainne? wrote: »

#3. 2 weeks ago I viewed a housing development in Galway (a development that had been dormant for at least 2 years). They had an open day. I asked what the price was for one of the houses, they told me a price and I asked was there any negotiation on the price of the house and they said No way, that is the price and that is it. They made a swift exit; it was like I had offended them by asking to negotiate on the price of the house.

Just curious, what housing development was this? As I am looking at a particular development myself and was wondering if maybe it's the same development you were looking at?

Feel free to PM

musharra

skelliser wrote: »

be interesting to see this same thread in 6 months.
Reckon we will finally see more downward pricing.

Iv stated my opinions in the last thread and stand by them.

btw how has that house in knocknacarra gone up by 70k?!!

typo still 350k ...as if anyone would pay a fraction..

musharra

The surge in prices up to 2007 was mainly based on talk and fear..."buy now the'll be 50k more in 5 minutes...better than money in the bank"

Now that it this reality is known, and the fact that there was nothing real behind this surge, like a cardboard western prop, the proportional decrease will be deeper here than in other countries.

pudgeydev

This might explain why Galway house prices didn't fall as much as the rest of the country.

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/city-of-tribes-was-rare-sane-voice-in-planning-2373655.html

micko123

It won't matter if house prices even halve because the cost of mortgage will be so high it will be the equivalent of having bought at the height of the boom.

The only difference being that by buying now you will be susceptible to rises in interest rates unlike those who bought in the boom but were lucky enough to get tracker mortgages.

My advice is to rent now and bide your time.

Placebo Effect

You would have to be mad to buy now.

Some economists forecast that house prices here could revert to 1980's levels.

The IMF on our doorstep and people buying houses?

micko123

Agreed.

Try paying an exorbitant mortgage after the IMF slash your wages and the interest rates go through the roof.

If you were wise/lucky enough to come through the 'boom' with savings and without borrowings then you can hold out for another while.

Amhran Nua

micko123 wrote: »

It won't matter if house prices even halve because the cost of mortgage will be so high it will be the equivalent of having bought at the height of the boom.

We aren't in charge of our own interest rates any more, so while I'd expect them to rise, its unlikely we'll see above 10% rates as used to be the case, the effects on the eurozone generally would be drastic. Bottom line, houses are going to get cheaper in every sense.

Bobeagleburger

I've been following house prices in and around the city and they are still a million miles from reality.

Asking prices are ridiculous.

House prices will continue to fall for the next 5 years at least. A 3 bed in Knocknacarra is worth 130k max

Bobeagleburger

Placebo Effect wrote: »

You would have to be mad to buy now.

Some economists forecast that house prices here could revert to 1980's levels.

The IMF on our doorstep and people buying houses?

Anyone buying a house now is a mug

lion_bar

musharra wrote: »

Here is an old post I stuck up in May 2010. I’ve updated the few that have changed with Oct ‘10 asking prices…’as if knocking a few grand was going to do anything come on’. Anyhow it’s interesting they’re all still for sale on daft.
In the original post it was interesting to see the number of people trying to defend the inflated prices in Galway…let’s see what sort of discussion this throws up now.:rolleyes:
Moderator I’ll leave it up to you to leave in the Galway forum or switch it to property forum.


(From May 2010)
The below is an example of the crazy 'asking price' still out there and what I
believe anyone with sense should consider pay for them.
I realize these are just asking prices but in majority of cases this price is ~20k
over the min the sellers are willing to accept (based on queries)

www.daft.ie/1461613 Merlin Lane 420,000 max 170,000. (Oct ’10 420K)
www.daft.ie/1454018 Knocknacarra 350.000 max 200,000 (Oct ’10 350K)
www.daft.ie/1509259 Ballybane 275,000 not worth 150k (Oct ’10 Price On Application)
www.daft.ie/1494788 Oranmore 350,000 max 190k now €295,000 (Oct ’10 350k)
www.daft.ie/1524563 Moycullen 475,000 not worth half i.e. 236,000 (Oct ’10 420K)
www.daft.ie/1485798 Kilcolgan 475,000 may be worth half i.e. 236,000 (Oct ’10 €427,500)
www.daft.ie/1519555 Rahoon 329,000 max 220,000 . (Oct ’10 329K)

Has an explanation of the valuations been given?

rarnes1 wrote: »

Anyone buying a house now is a mug

Really, I signed contracts to buy 2 weeks ago.

Then the vendor changed their mind and pulled out. (I'd signed my half, they had yet to sign).

I don't understand why this makes me a mug...

The house was in an area I wanted to live in, the price was acceptable, the house was acceptable, the monthly repayments were less than similar rent.

I accept that prices will fall futher but i don't see why I shouldn't buy. I believe the will rise again too, that we will all make the same mistakes again and that before i left that house (50 years time hopefully) it would have gone up in value.

Of course EA's talk up the market, that's their job. But the valuations being offered are purely guesses, i would like to see the reasons for them...

swe_fi

lion_bar wrote: »

The house was in an area I wanted to live in, the price was acceptable, the house was acceptable, the monthly repayments were less than similar rent.

I accept that prices will fall futher but i don't see why I shouldn't buy. I believe the will rise again too, that we will all make the same mistakes again and that before i left that house (50 years time hopefully) it would have gone up in value.

Of course EA's talk up the market, that's their job. But the valuations being offered are purely guesses, i would like to see the reasons for them...

They way I would look at it in terms of buying a house (just a very short perspective fictitious example)
today €250.000
In 12 months €220.000 (or less)
Diff: 30.000 /12 = €2500/month

If I during these 12 months rent a house for €1000 /month I lose €12.000 compared to €30.000. Diff €18000 = enough for a nice car. I'm sure it's not this black and white but won't be far off i'd say.

I have lived here for 4.5 years - (think of all the cars I could buy for THAT saving! :-). Was actually thinking of buying 3.5 years ago, I am so so happy I did not. It's all relative, the comfort/feeling of living in your own home has a value as well i suppose.

LawnMower Man

If anyone is interested in a bargain theres a 3 bed in Dun Leinn in Ballybrit with an asking price of 90k with a tenant in place producing a 7.9% yield, in the past I think these went for 290k , theres some sort of section 50 on it for student rental.

Further up the road theres 3 beds beside the Clayton that have dropped from 325k to around 150k I think and have a section 50 on them too and within striking distance of the kfc drivethru if you feel hungry lol.

There seems to be some value out there if you look for it, I think we are back to 2002 or 2001 price levels already at this stage.

Galway has alot going for it though, from what I hear though getting a mortgage from the banks is impossible, they might say they are lending but in reality they aint...

musharra

lion_bar wrote: »

Has an explanation of the valuations been given?

Really, I signed contracts to buy 2 weeks ago.

I don't understand why this makes me a mug...

Valuations are based on what I believe they are worth based on rising interest rates, rising unemployment + emigration, gigantic personal and national debt, lack of credit for mortgages, and no-one buying or selling.

p.s. Dont buy anything now...except tea...