A New Type of Poker Site

BingoMingo

I have been playing online poker for about 5 years now. I play low limit NL Cash Holdem mostly but I also like Heads Up Tournaments - $5 and $10.
As an avid programmer I have written tons of code to analyse play, mine hands, even wrote a bot that won millions on the PS tables before they shut it down.

I have analysed results from literally hundreds of millions of hands and result of SnGs and I have come to some really stark conclusions.

Few people if any make any real return from playing poker online. There is a myth created of young guys in basements with multiple monitors and spider sunglasses earning hundreds of thousands a year but I have never been able to identify one of them in my analysis. Yes - including Elke and all the famous names we are told make millions online.

It is equally true to say few people if any loose massive money online. I've never found anyone who loses serious amounts of money. My studies generally show a hard core group who largely break even and another larger group representing a transient few who give it a try - lose a bit and then quit.

I have read a lot of Stuff about guys buying HHs to load to Poker Tracker etc., but to me this is a waste of time. THe community just changes too much, too many players etc. Poker Tracker has a huge footpring even for a small database of hands.

THe one thing that Poker Sites never discuss too much is the impact of Rake. To me this is a real killer. My view is this (supported by my data) -
playing 6 man SnGs at any level it is almost impossible to beat the rake of 10 % despite how good you are.

An idea keeps coming to me. - Why not start a rake free site ? - funded by a simple monthly or annual fee. ? Anyone got any ideas ?

peterswellman

BingoMingo wrote: »

I have been playing online poker for about 5 years now. I play low limit NL Cash Holdem mostly but I also like Heads Up Tournaments - $5 and $10.
As an avid programmer I have written tons of code to analyse play, mine hands, even wrote a bot that won millions on the PS tables before they shut it down.

I have analysed results from literally hundreds of millions of hands and result of SnGs and I have come to some really stark conclusions.

Few people if any make any real return from playing poker online. There is a myth created of young guys in basements with multiple monitors and spider sunglasses earning hundreds of thousands a year but I have never been able to identify one of them in my analysis. Yes - including Elke and all the famous names we are told make millions online.

It is equally true to say few people if any loose massive money online. I've never found anyone who loses serious amounts of money. My studies generally show a hard core group who largely break even and another larger group representing a transient few who give it a try - lose a bit and then quit.

I have read a lot of Stuff about guys buying HHs to load to Poker Tracker etc., but to me this is a waste of time. THe community just changes too much, too many players etc. Poker Tracker has a huge footpring even for a small database of hands.

THe one thing that Poker Sites never discuss too much is the impact of Rake. To me this is a real killer. My view is this (supported by my data) -
playing 6 man SnGs at any level it is almost impossible to beat the rake of 10 % despite how good you are.

An idea keeps coming to me. - Why not start a rake free site ? - funded by a simple monthly or annual fee. ? Anyone got any ideas ?

You wrote a bot that won millions? Surely with those millions you could give something back to the poker community that you unethically supposedly took money off.

Dub13

I have moved this out to the main forum as its a more general type of thread.

mdwexford

lol

TerryTibbs!

Name of accounts that won millions plz

3DataModem

BingoMingo wrote: »

An idea keeps coming to me. - Why not start a rake free site ? - funded by a simple monthly or annual fee. ? Anyone got any ideas ?

Firstly, your analysis is flawed.

There are a number of $100k plus grinders out there. Post this question on www.twoplustwo.com and plenty of guys will volunteer their sharkscope graphs.

There are plenty of losers out there. Most casual players are net contributors. Some of them are large contributors. They just don't talk about it. Go onto any large site, get a few screen names and enter in sharkscope.

Secondly, this has been tried.

Ever heard of Wsex or Spadeclub? Spadeclub shut down last month, and was supported by CardPlayer. The fact is that a HUGE proportion of the site's rake is spent on acquiring new customers... marketing, advertising, etc. A site is nothing without liquidity.

Mellor

don't really know where to start

BingoMingo wrote: »

even wrote a bot that won millions on the PS tables before they shut it down.

No you didn't.

Few people if any make any real return from playing poker online.

This is obviously wrong.

There is a myth created of young guys in basements with multiple monitors and spider sunglasses earning hundreds of thousands a year but I have never been able to identify one of them in my analysis. Yes - including Elke and all the famous names we are told make millions online.

There are plenty of identifable palyers that break 100k/yr

It is equally true to say few people if any loose massive money online.

It's actually equally untrue.
Guy Liberte, of circque du soliel fame, was a huge donator. Then again its justa hobby as he is worth millions.

I've never found anyone who loses serious amounts of money. My studies generally show a hard core group who largely break even and another larger group representing a transient few who give it a try - lose a bit and then quit.

Then you studies are either fabricated, or a tiny sample.

THe one thing that Poker Sites never discuss too much is the impact of Rake.

What? Never heard of RackBack, this is obviously an open awareness to the impact of rake.

To me this is a real killer. My view is this (supported by my data) -
playing 6 man SnGs at any level it is almost impossible to beat the rake of 10 % despite how good you are.

Show your data, as there are a number of nosebleed SnG player showing profit.
In fact, some people who used to post here were SNE level on SnGs alone

An idea keeps coming to me. - Why not start a rake free site ? - funded by a simple monthly or annual fee. ? Anyone got any ideas ?

Because its silly idea.
A flat fee is terrible as people simply play different volumes. you can't expect 2hr a week casuals to paly the same as 40 hr grinders.

RoadSweeper

There is a site already called PayNoRake.


Lol @ OP obv

latenia

If you're such a hardcore number cruncher then you must know that the equivalent RB on PS is 41.3% for tournies, rising to 85.5% for limit cash.

BingoMingo

Mellor wrote: »

don't really know where to start

No you didn't.

Why so hostile?

Here's what PS sent me - They believed it.

Hello XXXXX,

Upon a review of your account, we find that you are running an automated
player program, commonly known as a "bot". The running of a bot is against
the terms of service to which you agreed when opening your PokerStars
account. Those terms of service are located here:

[URL="wlmailhtml:{1E403050-315F-4D16-BFD2-839FF529892D}mid://00000002/!x-usc:http://www.pokerstars.com/tos.html"]http://www.pokerstars.com/tos.html[/URL]

Among them are these terms:

5.6 AUTOMATIC PLAYERS (BOTS). The use of artificial intelligence
including, without limitation, "robots" is strictly forbidden in
connection with the Software and the Games. All actions taken in
relation to the Games by a User must be executed personally by
players through the user interface accessible by use of the Software.
...................... etc.,


They were quite reasonable about it as it was just play money.

My interest was to handle the mechanics of joining tables, leaving them reading the hands and the board effecting actions etc.,
I also wanted to do some analysis on variance.
The AI was very mundane (preflop AI the top 8 hands and fold everything else - play money play is so bad that this formula wins.)
Incidentally I think it is also a myth that decent bots to play for real money exist.

If you are familiar with .NET framework I will post the code.

In terms of serious winners a lot of people have disagreed with me but can anyone give me some IDs

Please note that I did not say I have looked at MTTs as it is hard to get any volume data for these though I did look at the 180 man SnGs
and I found a few guys there who made some decent money.

My main comment was about Cash Poker (sharkescope does not cover this) and I focussed on NL with a range of levels fron micro (5c-10c) to $2-$4.
This is the level where 99% of players play.

BingoMingo

3DataModem wrote: »

Firstly, your analysis is flawed.

There are a number of $100k plus grinders out there. Post this question on www.twoplustwo.com and plenty of guys will volunteer their sharkscope graphs.

There are plenty of losers out there. Most casual players are net contributors. Some of them are large contributors. They just don't talk about it. Go onto any large site, get a few screen names and enter in sharkscope.

Secondly, this has been tried.

Ever heard of Wsex or Spadeclub? Spadeclub shut down last month, and was supported by CardPlayer. The fact is that a HUGE proportion of the site's rake is spent on acquiring new customers... marketing, advertising, etc. A site is nothing without liquidity.

A I said in my post I have focussed on 6 man SnGs. Why don't you get me an ID for someone who is a consistent winner then?

Also 2 man Heads up. THe absolute best guys I found can only win 61%
on these.

I think both Pokerstars and Full Tilt are excellent sites. I am not criticing them at all.
My point is that there is a lot of hype around online poker that is not true.
If you ever watch Sky Poker (a crap site I know) you will hear commentators basically saying this.
ie: it's about fun - not making money.

Jul3s

BingoMingo wrote: »

Why so hostile?

Here's what PS sent me - They believed it.

Hello XXXXX,

Upon a review of your account, we find that you are running an automated
player program, commonly known as a "bot". The running of a bot is against
the terms of service to which you agreed when opening your PokerStars
account. Those terms of service are located here:

[URL="wlmailhtml:{1E403050-315F-4D16-BFD2-839FF529892D}mid://00000002/!x-usc:http://www.pokerstars.com/tos.html"]http://www.pokerstars.com/tos.html[/URL]

Among them are these terms:

5.6 AUTOMATIC PLAYERS (BOTS). The use of artificial intelligence
including, without limitation, "robots" is strictly forbidden in
connection with the Software and the Games. All actions taken in
relation to the Games by a User must be executed personally by
players through the user interface accessible by use of the Software.
...................... etc.,


They were quite reasonable about it as it was just play money.

My interest was to handle the mechanics of joining tables, leaving them reading the hands and the board effecting actions etc.,
I also wanted to do some analysis on variance.
The AI was very mundane (preflop AI the top 8 hands and fold everything else - play money play is so bad that this formula wins.)
Incidentally I think it is also a myth that decent bots to play for real money exist.

If you are familiar with .NET framework I will post the code.

In terms of serious winners a lot of people have disagreed with me but can anyone give me some IDs

Please note that I did not say I have looked at MTTs as it is hard to get any volume data for these though I did look at the 180 man SnGs
and I found a few guys there who made some decent money.

My main comment was about Cash Poker (sharkescope does not cover this) and I focussed on NL with a range of levels fron micro (5c-10c) to $2-$4.
This is the level where 99% of players play.

El oh el

Zab

You didn't stipulate play money in your original post. You've never seen www.pokertableratings.com? People are being hostile because you're making suggestions based on what you say is your extensive experience in online poker, yet every suggestion you make shows complete ignorance of the industry. That, and you've admitted to trying to write a bot.

BingoMingo

Zab wrote: »

You didn't stipulate play money in your original post. You've never seen www.pokertableratings.com? People are being hostile because you're making suggestions based on what you say is your extensive experience in online poker, yet every suggestion you make shows complete ignorance of the industry. That, and you've admitted to trying to write a bot.

I did not say I tried to write a bot I said I did write one. I offered to post the code.


If I had won millions of real money I would hardly be telling anyone.

Anyway I had hoped to have an adult, civilized discussion about the subject of hype and the impact of rake.

It is obvious that is not possible here.

Enjoy being rude to each other children!

Zab

Most people here, and most online players in general, would consider running a bot on a real money table to be a crime. I'm surprised you weren't away of this.

The rake eats massively into profits at low to mid stakes poker, it's true. However, most casual/losing player don't care about the rake. There have been attempts at rake-free poker sites in the past, but they've failed because they lack the funds to attract casual players via advertising and the type of player that would actually seek them out ends up realizing they'd rather pay the rake to be in a better game. The half-way ground is rakeback, which has met widespread acceptance.