Opinions on where silver is going

Cavehill Red

I was reading the thread on here on spread betting silver and it got me wondering about the current upwardly direction of the 'lesser metal'.

We're all aware of the headlines about gold, but silver too has been creeping upwards and has its own silver bugs.
So I'm wondering what people in here think about silver as an investment category.

Are silver ETFs as poorly underwritten by physical metal as gold ETFs?
Is silver a bubble?
Will the gold/silver ratio close (currently c. 60x, historically as low as 15)?

Personally, I've got a little bit of physical silver and would be a teeny bit wary of ETF investments.
I'm not particularly looking to get into silver any more than I already am, but I would be more attracted to it that I would gold.

So, what's your thoughts on where silver's going?

digitally-yours

so here is my analysis....

digitally-yours

and the Gold Charts


I think I have never drawn the trend lines as steep as these ....:D

reverenddave

all i can say is wish i bought shítloads of silver in september '08

Cavehill Red

Based on the title, I was more interested in opinions on where silver is going than where it came from.
But thanks for those charts.

digitally-yours

Cavehill Red wrote: »

Based on the title, I was more interested in opinions on where silver is going than where it came from.
But thanks for those charts.

:rolleyes:
I don't know what to say really ...

As an active trader these charts are my bread and butter .

so for me these charts are good enough to tell me where the silver is going
I am sure any chartist worth his salt will know what I mean.

stevedublin

digitally-yours wrote: »

:
so for me these charts are good enough to tell me where the silver is going

silver going down short-term (to about $21), but up long term?

digitally-yours

stevedublin wrote: »

silver going down short-term (to about $21), but up long term?

You have read it correctly.

There is 80% chance in my opinion that price will visit the $20 or $21
before continuing with the trend upwards.


lets see as the weeks unfold how it goes


To understand why I am making this Prediction

you have to understand Price Has a Memory

fundamental concept in price movement and will help you on your trading journey

Cavehill Red

I do appreciate the charts and short-term analysis.
However, my questions were probably more mid- to long-term in nature.

Are silver ETFs as poorly underwritten by physical metal as gold ETFs?
Is silver a bubble?
Will the gold/silver ratio close (currently c. 60x, historically as low as 15)?

digme

Hi Cavehill I bought into silver last year and I believe silver is going to over €100 an ounce.

In 1980 silver went to $49.45 per troy ounce and a reduction of the gold/silver ratio down to 1:17 The ratio is 1:56 now and has a long way to go. The usd is around 4 times weaker than what it was in 1980, so $200 an ounce is a piece of piss.
Either way if things go bad your sorted and if things go good your fine, silver won't cause you any loss of value.

http://agaupm.com

pablo_escobar

the price fluctuates depending on indusrial demand.
i think it will hit $37-$40 an oz over next 12 months.

mickman

digme wrote: »

Hi Cavehill I bought into silver last year and I believe silver is going to over €100 an ounce.

In 1980 silver went to $49.45 per troy ounce and a reduction of the gold/silver ratio down to 1:17 The ratio is 1:56 now and has a long way to go. The usd is around 4 times weaker than what it was in 1980, so $200 an ounce is a piece of piss.
Either way if things go bad your sorted and if things go good your fine, silver won't cause you any loss of value.

http://agaupm.com

only reason it went to 49 was the hunt brothers trying to control the market. of course speculation exists today but probably not at that level

digme

100 x paper silver exists today .

Cavehill Red

digme wrote: »

100 x paper silver exists today .

Is this true, really?
If so, what is the paper underwritten with? Surely the ETF funds are required to hold physical bullion to support their paper?

reverenddave

Cavehill Red wrote: »

Is this true, really?
If so, what is the paper underwritten with? Surely the ETF funds are required to hold physical bullion to support their paper?

the paper silver is probably underwritten with more paper silver which is underwritten with more paper silver which is underwritten with more paper silver which is underwritten with more paper silver which is underwritten with more paper silver which is underwritten with more paper silver which is underwritten with more paper silver which could be underwritten with bullion

digitally-yours

Tin Hats required

This Gold bubble & Silver is due some serious correction in my opinion.

digme

Any chance you could stop posting those ****ty charts?
And silver and gold is no, not for another 5 years at least.
If a correction comes, it's just another opportunity to buy more silver.

aspasp1

digme wrote: »

Any chance you could stop posting those ****ty charts?
And silver and gold is no, not for another 5 years at least.
If a correction comes, it's just another opportunity to buy more silver.

Hi Digme,

do you think the doller may start strenghtning and we might see some more correction in the silver/gold? however i agree with ur long term view but atleast 10-15% correction can not be ruled out..

aspasp1

Cavehill Red

China announced interest rate rises this week. Gold dropped percentiles. Silver, normally more volatile again, fell by less. But both mostly bounced back already.
That would suggest to me that whatever the ability of events to affect the precious metals short-term, long-term seems resilient as there remains underlying demand for them.
As soon as they fell in response to China, in came demand for the dip. Now, they could well dip again and in a more sustained fashion. But with more quantitative easing coming in the US, it's hard not to see the metals improving further.
But I don't want to be caught by confirmation bias. I opened this thread because I was as keen to hear from other opinions than gold bugs.

digme

aspasp1 wrote: »

Hi Digme,

do you think the doller may start strenghtning and we might see some more correction in the silver/gold? however i agree with ur long term view but atleast 10-15% correction can not be ruled out..

aspasp1

Doesn't matter,silvers going up no matter what, at least for another few years.
Everyone says there will be a correction,if there is just buy more physical.

ixus

Cavehill Red wrote: »

China announced interest rate rises this week. Gold dropped percentiles. Silver, normally more volatile again, fell by less. But both mostly bounced back already.

What's interesting is that the Currencies, Equities, Ags, Soft's all more or less retraced their moves but that Gold did not. There was more downside on gold today. All this could prove meaningless with the G20. Depends on the BLAH BLAH from there this weekend really.

pablo_escobar

read today QE2 could start at $500 bln and progress in increments as high as $250 bln...

Cavehill Red

pablo_escobar wrote: »

read today QE2 could start at $500 bln and progress in increments as high as $250 bln...

:eek:

That's not going to do the dollar much good.
I wonder to what extent the market has already priced this sort of info in. After all, they've been hinting at a big QE2 for ages.
On Ixus' point, I wonder if there was a lot of profit taking on gold given its record highs and the 'shoeshine boy' effect - blogs and articles in the MSM talking up gold as an inflation and currency hedge. Silver hasn't attracted the same attention, I don't think.

Bullish

There has been huge speculation and the figure that i think has been priced was 1 trillion, so anything below that would probably be a dissapointment for the markets

The Dollar had a flash crash last night at to 74.06 from 77 (/DX dollar futures)
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dxy-flash-crash-detonates-entire-currency-complex

As with the SPX when it flash crashed the low was retested, i would expect this dollar low to be tested.

If the dollar drops to the .74 area then Gold should advance
just my opinion