The Prince of Burma appreciation thread

Hulk Hands

Cant be having Southampton at that price anyway, its gone too far. Think stoke and spurs are decent prices this weekend. I've layed Everton at 1.6 also. I've posted in the football gambliing thread about United being too big a price at 6/4 using normal football gambling theory.

Juwwi

A new angle I'm watching with the football is in running corner handicap.

Its a waiting game to find the right moment but usually if your watching the game with the market open in a few bookies its usually common sense.

Johner

Benteke is still 3/1 to be player of the month? A sure thing if he scores tomorrow against Liverpool? And a good chance even if he doesn't I would imagine. Decent bet, was 6/1 the other day though.

fangee

NewApproach wrote: »

Stop being a mug. He's not 'changing his mind'. He had his mind made up all along. Southampton were value at the original price. Now Sunderland are considered value at this price.

I find the premiership really easy to make money on. I'm not being a Fúckin mug. I think Saints will win. How does that make me a mug ?

NewApproach

fangee wrote: »

I find the premiership really easy to make money on. I'm not being a Fúckin mug. I think Saints will win. How does that make me a mug ?

You're implying that he shouldn't bet the other way, despite the price on one team moving from 2.1 to 1.676. You are demonstrating zero understanding of price vs expectation and its importance when it comes to placing a bet. You don't make money in this game by 'thinking' such and such a team will win.

fangee

NewApproach wrote: »

You're implying that he shouldn't bet the other way, despite the price on one team moving from 2.1 to 1.676. You are demonstrating zero understanding of price vs expectation and its importance when it comes to placing a bet. You don't make money in this game by 'thinking' such and such a team will win.

I look at the fixtures and decide my bets.

Then I look at the odds and finalise my bets.

If the bookies make a mistake (by my reckoning) then I get stuck in.

He is right (in my opinion) about the Saints winning. So why back against it ?

West ham are the value bet tomorrow.

NewApproach

fangee wrote: »

I look at the fixtures and decide my bets.

Then I look at the odds and finalise my bets.

If the bookies make a mistake (by my reckoning) then I get stuck in.

He is right (in my opinion) about the Saints winning. So why back against it ?

West ham are the value bet tomorrow.

Wow, that seems a very solid approach. Very thorough. No wonder you find it so easy to make money betting on the premiership. To be fair, to make money on the premiership you only need to be better than all the odds compilers employed by the bookmakers combined, plus the over round factored into their prices. No big deal like...

fangee

NewApproach wrote: »

Wow, that seems a very solid approach. Very thorough. No wonder you find it so easy to make money betting on the premiership. To be fair, to make money on the premiership you only need to be better than all the odds compilers employed by the bookmakers combined, plus the over round factored into their prices. No big deal like...

So you're being smart arse ?

Yeah. You're probably right. The bookies never make a mistake.

Well I've paid for many a weekend or holiday when they get it wrong.

Well I'll collect big tomorrow when the hammers win. Over priced.

I'd call that a mistake.

But by your rationale EVERY favourite wins.

ps, why the animosity ? I'm all about the love.

NewApproach

fangee wrote: »

So you're being smart arse ?

Yeah. You're probably right. The bookies never make a mistake.

Well I've paid for many a weekend or holiday when they get it wrong.

Well I'll collect big tomorrow when the hammers win. Over priced.

I'd call that a mistake.

But by your rationale EVERY favourite wins.

ps, why the animosity ? I'm all about the love.

Ah I'm just a bit grumpy this evening. Don't mind me. What price should Hammers be out of interest? I won't be having a bet btw.

fangee

NewApproach wrote: »

Ah I'm just a bit grumpy this evening. Don't mind me. What price should Hammers be out of interest? I won't be having a bet btw.

Fúck you. I'm way more grumpy than you.

Shame on me. Retired and living on the Costa Brava and soon to be living in Oz. it's not really a hard life but these locals are soooo racist.

Anyway , I think the Hammers are the stand out bet tomorrow. Safely, draw no bet.

I'd have them less than 2/1 to win.

carpothepunk

I would love to see your book for the game fangee. can you be a little more specific than less than 2/1? surely you must make them a 6/4 chance if you are getting involved at 3s.

Colonel Sanders

1.86 Liverpool from evens.

Is there team news or is it simply the usual weekend punt on Liverpool?

fangee

carpothepunk wrote: »

I would love to see your book for the game fangee. can you be a little more specific than less than 2/1? surely you must make them a 6/4 chance if you are getting involved at 3s.

Punk my Arsè. Have you even heard of Rumble ?

Where are you getting 3's ?

They are best priced 12/5.

fangee

droidman123 wrote: »

Problem is our away form last season was diabolical, hopefully big sam can sort that out.

I love when a manager / player goes back to the club that got rid of them.

Sam, Nolan and Carroll (if he's fit) ?

Yes please.

droidman123

fangee wrote: »

I love when a manager / player goes back to the club that got rid of them.

Sam, Nolan and Carroll (if he's fit) ?

Yes please.

Carroll wont be fit.worst buy ever for the hamners and we have had some stockings of ****e over the years! Everyone and their uncle knows carroll will spend more time injured than actually playing.what do the hamners do? Pay over 50 million for him over 6 years!

fangee

droidman123 wrote: »

Carroll wont be fit.worst buy ever for the hamners and we have had some stockings of ****e over the years! Everyone and their uncle knows carroll will spend more time injured than actually playing.what do the hamners do? Pay over 50 million for him over 6 years!

I'm just sayin that I don't think Newcastle can beat them. Draw no bet but I'm backing them to win.

droidman123

fangee wrote: »

I'm just sayin that I don't think Newcastle can beat them. Draw no bet but I'm backing them to win.

I,m just lumping on the draw.

Hulk Hands

NewApproach wrote: »

Wow, that seems a very solid approach. Very thorough. No wonder you find it so easy to make money betting on the premiership. To be fair, to make money on the premiership you only need to be better than all the odds compilers employed by the bookmakers combined, plus the over round factored into their prices. No big deal like...

Exactly! Have to laugh at the suggestion that its easy to make money on the most scrutinized gambling league in the world. You may find small leans each week but there's never much margin there, the sole exception being Liverpool's price since 07, but that's an anomaly that's starting to correct itself. These markets aren't even made by conventional oddscompilers, they're made by Asian syndicates who's employee can spend up to 2 days focusing on pricing one game. The mainstream European bookies are only taking opinions, eg we may lay A a bit or try and duck B, but they're only slight opinions on odds already made for them, which is why everyone is generally in or around the same odds, usually within the betfair line.

UrbanSea

Have to cut the grass now. It's like a ****ing meadow

fangee

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Exactly! Have to laugh at the suggestion that its easy to make money on the most scrutinized gambling league in the world. You may find small leans each week but there's never much margin there, the sole exception being Liverpool's price since 07, but that's an anomaly that's starting to correct itself. These markets aren't even made by conventional oddscompilers, they're made by Asian syndicates who's employee can spend up to 2 days focusing on pricing one game. The mainstream European bookies are only taking opinions, eg we may lay A a bit or try and duck B, but they're only slight opinions on odds already made for them, which is why everyone is generally in or around the same odds, usually within the betfair line.

Nice one. I made you laugh.

Happy Saturday.

Maybe you should follow my weekly premiership bets if you're not making any money yourself.

hawaii501

Burton Albion seem to be once again overpriced at home this season. They are evens at home to Bury who have been struggling this season although they did make 2 decent transfers during the week. I still think Burton are good value.

Slattsy

Am I the only one that doesn't bet on the Prem?

Will do a first goal scorer bet when I'm having a few pints with the lads and the very odd coupon.

Liverpool price is generally shocking I have to admit!

Overthelast

I bet maybe 3 or 4 times a year on the footy, that's it. And for buttons. But I do like to throw an opinion out on the odd match or two where I think the prices are upside down.

UrbanSea

Can't remember the last time I did a football bet. Try not to bet on things I don't know too much about

ft9

UrbanSea wrote: »

Can't remember the last time I did a football bet. Try not to bet on things I don't know too much about

You should really stop backing horses so

UrbanSea

I'm focussing on underage women's hockey lately

ft9

UrbanSea wrote: »

I'm focussing on underage women's hockey lately

And robbing other peoples jokes!

UrbanSea

And dropping yokes

ft9

UrbanSea wrote: »

And dropping yokes

Anthony Stokes.

UrbanSea

Snogging blokes

ft9

UrbanSea wrote: »

Snogging blokes

He rode your folks

Colonel Sanders

Took 2.15 +0.75 with Bet365 (bigger than Pinnicle are laying)

Wasn't a big bet. Not a huge fan of swimming against such a strong current!

UrbanSea

ft9 wrote: »

He rode your folks

They were on coke

ft9

UrbanSea wrote: »

They were on coke

They love a poke

Colonel Sanders

UrbanSea wrote: »

Can't remember the last time I did a football bet. Try not to bet on things I don't know too much about

A key price in the premiership is 2.2, assuming two teams of equal ability play in the premiership a fair price for the home team is around 2.2 (I made it 2.17 in a rough points based model, the biggest punter I know uses 2.19)

A lot of my betting is at prices in and around that level. Stoke were 2.3 last year to best Wigan at home i.e. the prices implied Wigan were a slightly better team. I backed Stoke (they actually went 2-0 up & drew!)

Liverpool were slight odds on at home to Spurs last year, again the market had it wrong. When Man U played Liverpool at home the prices at kick off implied all that was between then was Utd's home advantage.

I look at what prices say about the 2 teams relative ability & make my punting decisions based on that

droidman123

ft9 wrote: »

They love a poke

Enough of this joke

Colonel Sanders

droidman123 wrote: »

Enough of this joke

Will Crystal Palace beat Stoke?

NewApproach

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

A key price in the premiership is 2.2, assuming two teams of equal ability play in the premiership a fair price for the home team is around 2.2 (I made it 2.17 in a rough points based model, the biggest punter I know uses 2.19)

A lot of my betting is at prices in and around that level. Stoke were 2.3 last year to best Wigan at home i.e. the prices implied Wigan were a slightly better team. I backed Stoke (they actually went 2-0 up & drew!)

Liverpool were slight odds on at home to Spurs last year, again the market had it wrong. When Man U played Liverpool at home the prices at kick off implied all that was between then was Utd's home advantage.

I look at what prices say about the 2 teams relative ability & make my punting decisions based on that

Out of interest what do you make the 'draw' and 'away', when home is 2.17 based on two equal teams?

Johner

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Will Crystal Palace beat Stoke?

Mono........Doh!

Colonel Sanders

NewApproach wrote: »

Out of interest what do you make the 'draw' and 'away', when home is 2.17 based on two equal teams?

Tbh I just focus on homes prices & the associated Asian handicaps. The draw price (and hence the away) will be influenced by goals expectations. I've a job so can't spend enough time focusing on all mkts! My model is quite rough (only used points) so I wouldn't hang my hat on it completely & the apparent edge needs to be quite large to follow it (although I'll often check with a few others to see if I'm mistaken)

Rarely (if ever) look at the draw & away (non handicap) prices. if a home team looks too short I'll either lay them or back the away team +0.5 as I haven't modelled the draw/away prices to see which would be better value of the 2

Johner

Just watch Liverpool games, they are always shocking prices. Why are they odds on against a Villa side that beat Arsenal away and were very unlucky not to get something at Stamford Bridge. Villa are massive value today.

Colonel Sanders

In terms of draws there are a few exceptions when I do play them

There's quite a big draw bias in the first leg of champions league games. Also 40%+ of knock out games in the European championships have ended in draws.

Colonel Sanders

Johner wrote: »

Just watch Liverpool games, they are always shocking prices. Why are they odds on against a Villa side that beat Arsenal away and were very unlucky not to get something at Stamford Bridge. Villa are massive value today.

The thing about Liverpool is you'll look at their price on Wednesday & think they're too short. Come the weekend they'll be shorter.

They were being priced last season, week in week out, as if they were a champions league team

Johner

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

The thing about Liverpool is you'll look at their price on Wednesday & think they're too short. Come the weekend they'll be shorter.

They were being priced last season, week in week out, as if they were a champions league team

I forgot though, it's their year! :rolleyes:

Johner

Arsenal were value last night at just better than evens purely because of their record against Fulham.

Arsenal have won on eight of their 12 trips to Craven Cottage since Fulham were promoted to the Premier League.

For all the injuries they have the first 11 that is starting today looks decent to me and should be enough to get the job done at Fulham.

#Arsenal team to play Fulham: Szczesny, Jenkinson, Mertesacker (c), Sagna, Gibbs, Ramsey, Rosicky, Cazorla, Walcott, Podolski, Giroud.

Johner

hawaii501 wrote: »

Burton Albion seem to be once again overpriced at home this season. They are evens at home to Bury who have been struggling this season although they did make 2 decent transfers during the week. I still think Burton are good value.

5/4 on Bet Victor.

Burton have lost two of their best players from last season in Maghoma and Zola but have started really well this season. They are going for 16 wins out of 18 at home so the 5/4 does look a great price. Although last time Bury came to the Pirelli they won 3-1! I was at it. :cool: That was when Bury were flying high in League 2 and Burton were struggling down near the foot of the table. Hopefully be different today, I've taken some of the 5/4 and hopefully the Brewers continue with their fine home record. BREWERS BREWERS BREWERS.

carpothepunk

fangee wrote: »

Punk my Arsè. Have you even heard of Rumble ?

Where are you getting 3's ?

They are best priced 12/5.

Apologies, I thought you mentioned 3s earlier in the thread. Even worse again, best priced 12/5, you must make them an 11/8 shot or so to be getting involved. Again, whats your book?

And please don't make a silly comment about me. Aha.

Colonel Sanders

Any idea who the new crowd on Oddschecker are? Sports Winner

Judging by my experience of other new entrants (e.g. Youwin) my hopes are far from high but they seem to have a pretty comprehensive selection of Asian handicap markets which is a decent sign

fangee

carpothepunk wrote: »

Apologies, I thought you mentioned 3s earlier in the thread. Even worse again, best priced 12/5, you must make them an 11/8 shot or so to be getting involved. Again, whats your book?

And please don't make a silly comment about me. Aha.

You've heard of Aha but not Rumble ?

Sunshine bar on Bridge street mid 90's ? No ?

carpothepunk

The same sunshine bar that played host to Refused in 98, no? Please don't question me. ridiculous punxer than thou mentality.