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Our next great leader, doesn't believe civil servants

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Comments

  • #212
    Head The Wall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,892 ✭✭✭Head The Wall


    Why if the DoF followed all good economic policy are we so much worse off than nearly every other country in the world. You can't surely be comparing our current predicament to anyone elses.

    As rumour says you're looking for a report to try and hide behind. No one is buying it though


  • #213
    rumour
    Closed Accounts Posts: 836 ✭✭✭rumour


    Lame Lantern wrote: »
    There exists no such evidence by virtue of the fact that the DoF got broad support for its numbers from the ECB and other institutions, by virtue of the fact that the key estimate which was wide of the mark (international growth) was forecasted quite universally.
    Quite simply not true, there is evidence and we were warned specifically about 20% of our economy being dependent on building. The fact that we paid no attention to these warnings is not evidence of universal predictions. Quite simply this is disingenuous. Again this rhetoric may have sufficed at some point in Ireland but times up on this kind of nonsense.
    Lame Lantern wrote: »
    The extant crisis is not evidence of institutional failures as it largely originated in the private sector.
    The German ambassador gave a speech here calling this place the wild west. Lack of regulation sectors overheating etc. Strange how he could know while the dof were completely blind to all this. Again more nonsense about not knowing and trying to avoid responsibility. Who could possibly have confidence in this and by extension your arguments.
    Lame Lantern wrote: »
    Challenge the reaction to it, fair enough, but in that regard the only criticism you can levy at them is that they were not inspired enough to produce numbers radically different to the numbers of everyone else.
    This is again disingenuous and avoids the principal issue that all the other universal opinions (that are now selectively quoted to support this incredible incompetence) do not carry the responsibility for this mess. No matter how much ducking and diving is done. This whole thread has demonstrated thoroughly the incompetent methods of management that exist between the dof and the minister. If we are to believe half of what you say the system is nothing short of dysfunctional as it has not protected the economic interests of the Irish nation which is an implicit function of the dof.(If you choose to retort that it is not implicit by virtue of it not being explicit then you reinforce the dysfunction) Defending it is only evidence of the dysfunction.
    Lame Lantern wrote: »
    The point is that these concerns have no basis in reality,
    If only your dream world were true. They have a very very real basis in reality. A reality that many posters have no problem in comprehending. A reality that transpires into people now loosing their jobs homes and having to leave their families.
    Lame Lantern wrote: »
    though you're right that they will have an adverse affect on our borrowing.
    Whether I am right is of no relevance. We are long past the point of an adverse affect on borrowing. We are now at the point of ability to borrow. This is completely different.
    Lame Lantern wrote: »
    We should be questioning the recklessness and incompetence of the opposition and the media given the moot nature of these criticisms, not accepting fiction as reality.
    The opposition are now immaterial. There exists for this state in the next few months only four things the market and ecb want to know. Labour FF FG and the dof need to figure these out in the next three weeks. Get it wrong no money. I would certainly be enormously hesitant in employing your version of the dof to undertake this task. Frankly a purely pragmatic rational decision would side with FG and ask for independent verification.
    1. how much money can we earn in the next four years?
    2. how much money are we going to cut back on spending?
    3. how are we going to pay the massive bill we have just run up?
    4. Who is now responsible?
    Just in case oli rhenn is going to check that the numpties at the dof have not got their sums wrong again. I wonder why, is it because of their untrustworthy track record or has this highly qualified man fallen victim
    to the recklessness and incompetence of the opposition and the media given the moot nature of these criticisms, not accepting fiction as reality


  • #214
    Lame Lantern
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 368 ✭✭Lame Lantern


    rumour wrote: »
    Quite simply not true, there is evidence and we were warned specifically about 20% of our economy being dependent on building. The fact that we paid no attention to these warnings is not evidence of universal predictions. Quite simply this is disingenuous. Again this rhetoric may have sufficed at some point in Ireland but times up on this kind of nonsense.
    We're talking about the DoF's analytic and methodological capabilities and the numbers it was working off of, not about government policy. The property bubble has nothing to do with the internal affairs of the DoF as it was a matter of public record. Your point is a valid criticism of the sitting government's failure to more vigorously address the property bubble as well as a valid criticism of the exposure private institutions led themselves into, but has nothing to do with this conversation and my points specifically.
    The German ambassador gave a speech here calling this place the wild west. Lack of regulation sectors overheating etc. Strange how he could know while the dof were completely blind to all this. Again more nonsense about not knowing and trying to avoid responsibility. Who could possibly have confidence in this and by extension your arguments.
    Again, you're talking about the policy-makers, not the DoF.
    This is again disingenuous and avoids the principal issue that all the other universal opinions (that are now selectively quoted to support this incredible incompetence) do not carry the responsibility for this mess. No matter how much ducking and diving is done. This whole thread has demonstrated thoroughly the incompetent methods of management that exist between the dof and the minister. If we are to believe half of what you say the system is nothing short of dysfunctional as it has not protected the economic interests of the Irish nation which is an implicit function of the dof.(If you choose to retort that it is not implicit by virtue of it not being explicit then you reinforce the dysfunction) Defending it is only evidence of the dysfunction.
    You can't merely dismiss my point of comparing the data being produced by the DoF with the data being produced by virtually every other institution in the same field. It proves that there was no evidence of incompetence within the DoF and you need to address this reality before you can lay the blame on the standard of civil servant within the department.
    The opposition are now immaterial. There exists for this state in the next few months only four things the market and ecb want to know. Labour FF FG and the dof need to figure these out in the next three weeks. Get it wrong no money. I would certainly have enormously hesitant in employing your version of the dof to undertake this task. Frankly a purely pragmatic rational decision would side with FG and ask for independent verification.
    Launching a large scale (and in my view pointless) probe into the operations of the DoF ahead of our next bond auction would send our rates of borrowing through the roof. The pragmatic approach would be for the misinformation coming from the media and the opposition to cease and for them to restrict themselves to criticisms based on the unsexy, technical reality of the situation. Thriving in a world of chaos and doomsaying will sell papers and allow Enda Kenny to lurch his way into the Taoiseach's office but it's a very real threat to our ability to borrow.


  • #215
    rumour
    Closed Accounts Posts: 836 ✭✭✭rumour


    So now its government policy that failed to recognise the problems we were warned about. If I am to believe you
    Lame Lantern wrote: »
    There exists no such evidence by virtue of the fact that the DoF got broad support for its numbers from the ECB and other institutions, by virtue of the fact that the key estimate which was wide of the mark (international growth) was forecasted quite universally..
    The structural problems with our economy that were never highlighted by our dof to the government because they never existed (despite the ECB and germans ambassadors very public warnings) by virtue of the fact that no one else was talking about them(not true) and even if they did it was government policy that got it wrong.

    Sorry don't buy all that horse manure. Oh and neither do the markets. Cost of borrowing rises again yesterday.International community don't swallow this stuff why should I?
    Lame Lantern wrote: »
    You can't merely dismiss my point of comparing the data being produced by the DoF with the data being produced by virtually every other institution in the same field. It proves that there was no evidence of incompetence within the DoF and you need to address this reality before you can lay the blame on the standard of civil servant within the department.
    Frankly I can and I am not alone the international community are at it too, This is the only reality, yours increasingly is becoming an irrelevance. However it is remarkable that now you concede that the DOF do produce data. I am particularly taken by the argument that if everyone else got the data wrong that implies the dof have done no wrong. Interestingly the other institutions which you rely on do interpret data also( as opposed to mere assimilation), so in addition you are conceding that the dof do infact interpret the data. If that is your defense and it appears to be consistent with dof thinking and excuses no wonder the markets are upping the cost of borrowing. All you appear to provide as a service (setting aside what I and most people believe is evidence of incompetence) is that you will be no more stupid than the other stupid person. Why would I give you money? Oh thats right they are not giving us money anymore.

    Lame Lantern wrote: »
    Launching a large scale (and in my view pointless) probe into the operations of the DoF ahead of our next bond auction would send our rates of borrowing through the roof. The pragmatic approach would be for the misinformation coming from the media and the opposition to cease and for them to restrict themselves to criticisms based on the unsexy, technical reality of the situation. Thriving in a world of chaos and doomsaying will sell papers and allow Enda Kenny to lurch his way into the Taoiseach's office but it's a very real threat to our ability to borrow.
    Yes the unsexy technical reality, the government and the department of finance from an international perspective are incompetent compared with other countries with the exception of Greece and Niger. Check the borrowing rates.
    With all due respects Kenny and the national media are of little concern. The politics of this issue have run their course, trying to politically associate responsibility to the opposition and the media is rather irrelevant and comes across as ass covering. I guess that must be really order of the day in the civil service what with a new master from europe and an impending new regime after 12 cosy years.


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