Predictions for UFC 121?

MonkeyBalls

I did a quick search, can't see a thread about this.

Lesnar vs Velasques - who've ya got?

I have a strange feeling Cain is going to put Lesnar away late in the fight, though on paper it seems like Lesnar is going to maul him easily.

And Jake Shields will probably hump Kampmann for 3 rounds, Hamill will decision-beat Tito, Schaub will TKO Gonzaga, and Thiago will beat Sanchez by decision.

DrPhilG

Lesnar by TKO within 3 rounds.

Hamill by decision, or maybe TKO.

Shields by submission

Schaub TKO

Sanchez TKO

scudzilla

Main event i've got Cain, even though i'm getting to like Brock more and more, at first i thought he was bad for the sport, but i think since his illness he's come back a lot more humble.

I reckon Cain will win by KO/TKO in the 3rd, Carwin could easily have finished Brock in the first, and if his cardio had been halfway decent he could have done it in the second. Cain's cardio is without question so think he'll be too much for Brock. But then again, i thought Mir woould beat him in there 2nd fight, i also thought Herring, Randy and Carwin would beat him too

Diabhal Beag

Brock will win but if it goes past the 2nd round he could lose it very easily

Think Tito will beat Hamill

TheProdigy

- Brock Lesnar

- Jake Shields

- Tito Ortiz

- Gabe Gonzaga

- Paulo Thiago

* I think its funny how people are really start to emphasise Cain's cardio because his camp are talking about it frequently. What good is cardio with a 280+ monster on top of you smashing you with punches, I think Cain's only chance is to catch Lesnar with a good shot, otherwise Lesnar will outwrestle and eventually TKO him imo.

The joy of MMA is the unpredictability so who knows.

scooby2791

Brock Lesnar

Jake Shields

Paulo Thiago

Ortiz - been a loong time since he last one so I can see it happening against Hammill

Schaub

And I would like to see Yvel KO Madsen although it would seem he will just get outwrestled, again.

unknown13

The main event is a close fight. There are a few questions that will decide the result. What is Cain like off his back is one, Can Cain stop the takedowns is another even though he is quick enough to do it but can he actually do it is the main thing. I don't know who I am picking yet and will decide soon enough.

Shields / Kampmann: Shields will get to the ground, and either sub or tko him.

Tito / Hamill: How much does Tito actually know about Hamill is what I want to know. If he knows as much as he says he does than he should school Hamill, if not Hamill will beat him to a decision

Tiago / Sanchez: Tiago should be too much for Sanchez.

Schaub / Gonzaga: Schaub early stoppage.

sonic.trip

Brock Lesnar
Matt Hamill
Paulo Thiago
Sam Stout
Patrick Cote
Gabriel Gonzaga

unknown13

sonic.trip wrote: »

Brock Lesnar
Matt Hamill
Paulo Thiago
Sam Stout
Patrick Cote
Gabriel Gonzaga

Stout is getting owned by Taylor.

Mellor

MonkeyBalls wrote: »

I have a strange feeling Cain is going to put Lesnar away late in the fight, though on paper it seems like Lesnar is going to maul him easily.

Care to explain this.
On paper???

On paper, both are Div 1 champs, Brock is prob more decorated.
Brock's record 5 - 1
Cain's record 8 - 0

Brock's loss was a careless sub, he went to decision with Herring, sub'd Carwin and the rest were TKO due to strikes (i'm counting his debut as a TKO as its not really a sub)

Cain went to one decision with Kongo, all the others were KO or TKO in first of early second round. Cain, would be more expierenced in MMA.

On paper, Cain is the best fighter, only just. The thing is, paper doesn't give a good picture of the fact that Brock, despite only fighting 3 yars, including a lengthy hiatus due to illness, has better and better every time he entered the ring.

- Cain (I think this is mostly my wishes, not my belief, i'm not betting on it)

- Jake Shields

- Matt Hamill

- Gabe Gonzaga

- Paulo Thiago

I'd gladly do a multiple on the other 4.

lakes1985

Cain Velasquez
kampmann
hamill

Pontificatus

My pics from IPB

Heavyweight Championship bout: Brock Lesnar vs Cain Velasquez
I dont know, i really dont. Velasquez has great hands and decent kicks. The one thing no-one mentions is his footwork which gives him the range to strike and get him out of the way of the counter. His wresting is obviosuly very good, i just dont know if its good enough to counteract a big weight difference. First thing everyone says about Lesnar is that he is huge but thats takes away from the fact that he a fast on this feet and pretty smart when it comes to using his size.
My call: Velasquez by decision Hit and dont get hit
Welterweight bout: Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann
I'm gonna come right out and say that i dont see how Kampman can win this fight. He has good kicks but throwing a kick against an accomplished wrassler like Shields is stupid, he has decent hands but desont have enough power to KO Shields. Shields on the other hand can close the distance, press Kampman against the cage and take him down. On the ground this is a different world for these two fighters, Shields is one of the most amazing grapplers in MMA.
My call: Shields by submission It'll be a choke, i just dont know which one. Guiltoine or RNC.
Welterweight bout: Diego Sanchez vs. Paulo Thiago
This is a tight one. I think Diego is in last chance saloon and could be cut from the UFC if he loses. Sanchez fights at an extremely high pace and Silva has shown that he doesnt do quite so well in the later rounds than in the early ones. Silva is extremely strong and has power in both hands as well as some really slick submissions.
My call: Thiago by KO
Light Heavyweight bout: Tito Ortiz vs. Matt Hamill
Its easier to defend a takedown than to execute one. I fancy Toto to control where this fight takes place but if he does keep it standing i think that while Toto is a slightly better striker and has a harder head, i think Hamill has more gas and could eek out a decision victory. Now if, and its a big IF this goes to the ground i think Tito will win because his top game will destroy Hamill who is terrible on the bottom and if its Tito on the bottom his Jiu Jitsu is actually pretty decent (he almost triangled BJJ black belt that is Evans).
My Call: Hamill by decision
Heavyweight bout: Brendan Schaub vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
Gonzaga is an animal. I know he has four of five losses but those losses were to Werdum (who beat Fedor), Randy, Carwin and Dos Santos. Shaub cannot let this go to the ground, if it does then he is out of his depth against a legitimate BJJ black belt. Standing this is a close one with Shaub having a longer reach but Gonzaga having great leg kicks and a pretty hard head. I think this fight could have KO or Sub of the night in it.
My Call: Gonzaga by submission
Hopefully we get to see Taylor vs Stout on the undercard. Two fighters who never ever ever fail to deliver an exciting fight.

SanoVitae

Cain by 3rd round TKO.

Hamill by decision

Shields by submission

Gonzalez by decision

Thiago by decision

t-ha

Not a card to make easy money off of IMO.

Brock v Cain
Cain's striking looked better than ever against Nog. People say Mir's did too & look what happened - but IMO Mir would've handled Brock standing and got demolished due to poor wrestling. I say Cain can wear Brock down standing and overwhelm him with volume punches to finish, similar to what he did to Ben Rothwell. However I also think that Brock knows this and will look to take Cain down hard, as often as needed, and lock him down and deliver a beating. Cain isn't going to be easy to finish so my guess is Brock looks to put him in a position where he can't defend himself intelligently, ala the one arm crucifix/nelson thingy or similar. Carwin stuffed alot of Brock's takedowns, but I think relied on his beast-strength (technical term) as much as technique and Cain doesn't have the same physical attributes as Carwin. I think this fight will come down to whether or not Brock can take Cain down - if he can't, it'll be an interesting fight!

Tito v's Hamill
This will be a standing fight. Tito can't take Hamill down, and Hamill wants it standing. I was very impressed with how Hamill fought Jardine. IMO his stand-up looked way ahead of where Tito is now. Tito is still hard to knock out though, since I'm not convinced he's fully concious to start with, so I see it being a 29-27 Hamill decision.

Kampmann v Shields
Kampmann will try to really use range well, but Shields isn't going to go down to peppering shots and at some point he'll close the distance and get his hands on him. I think Kampmann will stuff several take-downs but Shields will not let go and eventually will pull him to the mat. Once there, it's no secret tha Shields has been looking forward to elbows for years - it's gonna get messy and violent.

Gonzaga v Schaub
I'm mostly picking Gonzaga 'cos I don't like Schaub. Either man has a good chance to put the other away here, but I don't think landing on or taking shots from Gonzaga is anything like doing it with Chris Tucherer. Nepao hit's HARD!

Sanchez v Thiago
Paulo Thiago didn't look great last time out, but honestly I would pick any of his opponents since joining the UFC over Diego Sanchez right now (he seems overweight and a bit lost since the title fight), and with a 3-2 record against them I smell a win here.

DrPhilG

Pontificatus wrote: »

Welterweight bout: Diego Sanchez vs. Paulo Thiago
This is a tight one. I think Diego is in last chance saloon and could be cut from the UFC if he loses. Sanchez fights at an extremely high pace and Silva has shown that he doesnt do quite so well in the later rounds than in the early ones. Silva is extremely strong and has power in both hands as well as some really slick submissions.
My call: Thiago by KO.

Is this a triple threat???

fakearms123

Here are my predictions for UFC 121, I had a good think about these picks:


Cain Velasquez via Unanimous Decision - the reason I made this choice is simple, Cain is a better fighter. He has more skills than Brock. Most people are stating the argument that Brock is stronger, and yes of course he is stronger but is he better? Cain is extremely well rounded, solid stand up and great wrestling and most of all he will not gas, making a 5 round war perfect for him. Brock's mentality for every fight is "Brock SMASH! Brock SMASH! Hulk SMASH! I mean Brock SMASH!", he will put Cain on his back in this fight but I see Cain having the skills to avoid punishment on the bottom and work his way up to the feet. I can see Cain catching Brock on the feet and knocking him down to the ground where Cain will work on top. Cain's chin is excellent, same with Brock, thats why I see it going the distance but in Cain's favour.


Jake Shields via Unanimous Decision - although I feel as though Shields is a very one dimensional fighter and must I say quite boring he is however great at what he's good at and thats grappling and submissions under Cesar Gracie. Shields stand up striking is poor at best, I dont even think he uses his stand up striking to finish his opponents, instead using it for a takedown and his ground strikes are weak. Kampmann on the other hand has good kickboxing and is descent on the ground, he's basically good enough to hang with Shields on the ground and not get submitted. Shields will take this to the ground and control Kampmann for a decision or at least hump him until he gets a staph infection. But I got to give credit to Shields, he is a stud, here is just some of the guys he's beaten since 2006 - Yushin Okami, Carlos Condit, Mike Pyle, Paul Daley, Robbie Lawler, Mayhem Miller and Dan Henderson.


Paul Thiago via Split Decision - I have Thiago winning this one simply because he is more technical than Diego... then again a chimp is more technical than Diego. I see Diego Sanchez pushing to clinch with Paulo to avoid the striking and the reach advantage, Diego might even secure a takedown or two which he will score points on. However Thiago will beat him in the stand up, I think he will deal well with the aggression of Sanchez, he is better on the ground, I can see him sweeping Diego for the a close win.


Matt Hamill via Unanimous Decision - your probably wondering why I have another decision on my predictions, there's two reasons
1. with Dana White cutting people after 1 or 2 loses, everyone is fighting not to lose and not fighting to win.
2. a lot of these guys on the card of great chins.
Now onto my pick, why did I pick Hamill, well Tito sucks, thats why. Last win in the UFC was 2006 and that was against Ken Shamrock... Tito sucks. Matt for the win.


Gabriel Gonzaga via First Round TKO - Brendan Schaub is one cocky SOB but he not on Gonzaga's level right now, Schaub has looked impressive since Nelson made him flop on the canvas like a fish out of water, I think Schaub requested this fight, probably was a bad idea because I see Gonzaga ripping his head off in the opening round. Gonzaga is coming off a lose and I think he's going to be hungry for a win, he's always fights nasty after he loses.


I will come back to these predictions on monday and recap, I decided not to do a full thing on the undercard but here is just a quick look at my picks:
McGee
Cote
Guymon
Camozzi
Madsen

Tones69

Velasquez
Kampmann
Hamill
Gonzaga
Paul taylor to beat sam stout
Cote

Pontificatus

DrPhilG wrote: »

Is this a triple threat???

LOLs, so confusing all the Thiago's and Silva's..but you know what i mean

MonkeyBalls

TheProdigy wrote: »

* I think its funny how people are really start to emphasise Cain's cardio because his camp are talking about it frequently. What good is cardio with a 280+ monster on top of you smashing you with punches, I think Cain's only chance is to catch Lesnar with a good shot, otherwise Lesnar will outwrestle and eventually TKO him imo.

The joy of MMA is the unpredictability so who knows.

Fair point.

I've gotta say though, it's hard to conceive of Lesnar being able to maintain his ferocity/ape-like power for 5 rounds. It seems to break the laws of physics, how he can move so fast and also have great cardio.
So, it's possible Cain will weather the storm early and then, in the championship rounds when Lesnar has slowed down, outstrike and outmaneuver him a bit like Edgar vs Penn and possibly finish it on the ground via TKO

MonkeyBalls

@fakearms123 - good post.

It's easy to forget how good Gonzaga is - he's been KTFO pretty brutally a few times in recently memory but they've all been by top tier guys

flahavaj

Lesnar in the first IMO.

Superior fighter in every department.

Best in the world.

Niall0

I cant beleive so many people think Cain will win, Lesnar is just too much for him. There isnt much chance of it going 5 rounds either id say.

Tones69

flahavaj wrote: »

Lesnar in the first IMO.

Superior fighter in every department.

Best in the world.

Ahhh i dunno bout that now think cain is better in a few areas tbh

DeVore

The Cain vs Lesnar fight is really interesting, together with that fight and my curiousity to see if Tito shows up or if he still has "whiplash" or whatever, means I might even buy this on PPV.

Cain is superbly technical. Against Nog it was astonishing and anyone with Muay Thai experience or training couldnt but watch him in amazement imho. He was a rock solid rock'em-sock-em robot. Near perfect technique in my inexperienced eyes.

Lesnar is big. Really really big. Thats not a put down, its a statement of fact. If he hits Cain square... I dunno how many such hits *anyone* can take. If he shoots on him and takes him down, its hard to lift 280 pounds off you. I dont care how much cardio you have.

At the same time, Lesnar was clearly gassed after the first round with Carwin and what did he do in the first round? He got hit a lot... does that take much effort? I seriously question his gastank.

If Velasquez is smart he'll stay safe for a round or two, kick the legs out from under Lesnar and then try and do something in the latter rounds.

Cain is clearly the more technical fighter. Lesnar is clearly the bigger one. I cant wait to see how this plays.

I'm calling it for Cain, but there are some serious dangers he needs to be aware of.

DeV.

Fromvert

Lesnar vs Velasquez - Lesnar's shot will be to quick and powerful for Cain to stop and I don't think Lesnar will gas. Cain still hasn't impressed me and I don't buy into the hype. Lesnar to stop Cain.

Kampmann vs Shields - I think Shields might struggle to get Kampmann down and if he does Kampmann is no pushover when it comes to grappling. I give Shields an edge in the grappling but it's not much. Where as on their feet Kampmann is miles ahead of Shields. I expect this to stay on the feet and Kampmann to get the win. Also can't believe Kampmann is 2/1, I'll have some of that.

Ortiz vs Hamill -I really wonder how fit Tito is, yes he says he's fit but I can't believe it until I see it. Can't actually pick a winner but really hope Tito runs through him.

Sanchez vs Thiago - I think Thiago is a better striker and grappler, Thiago by UD.

Gonzaga vs Schaub - Gonzaga by TKO.

t-ha

DeVore wrote: »

... and what did he do in the first round? He got hit a lot... does that take much effort? I seriously question his gastank.

It takes good conditioning to take alot of hits and fight on.

seadnamac

I haven't seen any evidence of Lesnar's conditioning being suspect so I don't know where you're getting that from. He went three rounds with Heath Herring and looked like he could have done two more and that was over two years ago. He has improved in every aspect of his game since then and I would imagine his cardio has improved too.

mailburner

i've backed velasquez

other than that ive gone for

thiago by points 9/4
and jake shiels by points 13/8

schaub looks overpriced at 11/8 but
ive had a small wager on him getting
ko of the night at 10s

other than that
cote and stout

no idea bout tito hamill
should be a thriller :rolleyes:

sonic.trip

unknown13 wrote: »

Stout is getting owned by Taylor.

we will see unknown

DrPhilG

Taylor has 3 Fight of the Night bonuses from 7 UFC fights. Stout has 5 from 9.

Why the heck didn't they put this on the televised prelims?

Stout will win though.

unknown13

DrPhilG wrote: »

Taylor has 3 Fight of the Night bonuses from 7 UFC fights. Stout has 5 from 9.

Why the heck didn't they put this on the televised prelims?

Stout will win though.

That is a question I seriously want to know the answear of. Taylor is come forward all action fighter who is great to watch, Stout never backs from a stand up fight. Great fight and should be a war.

unknown13

Anyone know if Big John has been put up for reffing duties on this card by the California State Athletic Commission (CSAC).

mailburner

DrPhilG wrote: »

Taylor has 3 Fight of the Night bonuses from 7 UFC fights. Stout has 5 from 9.

Why the heck didn't they put this on the televised prelims?

Stout will win though.

baffled by this also
was wondering why there wasn't any other markets on
this fight as i wanted to do stout by decision.


which of the televised fights could you
actually drop?
personally i wouldnt drop the gonzaga/schaub cote/lawlor
or the sanchez/thiago fights.
jake shields was always going to make the televised card being a
big name as was tito+ hamill and im guessin the shields fight
will be a borefest and the tito hamill fight wont be much better.

seadnamac

Wow, Lesnar makes Velasquez look small.

YouSavedMyLife

seadnamac wrote: »

Wow, Lesnar makes Velasquez look small.

He is a behemoth. If he gets Cain down he will annihilate. His GnP is fast and brutal.

Who was the tall dude in the suit during the weight in. He was like telling the fighters what to do, seemed to be getting on some nerves with the looks on the fighters faces, lol

seadnamac

YouSavedMyLife wrote: »

He is a behemoth. If he gets Cain down he will annihilate. His GnP is fast and brutal.

Who was the tall dude in the suit during the weight in. He was like telling the fighters what to do, seemed to be getting on some nerves with the looks on the fighters faces, lol

Yea noticed him, presumed he was some sort of commisioner or something....

unknown13

Herb Dean is reffing the main event.

johnride

I really don't know. Lesnar has visibly improved in every fight, so I can't count him out. But at the same time, Velasquez has shown his worth as a fighter. My opinion, (as a guy said who answered my question) on their feet, it's Velasquez. On the ground, it's Lesnar.
________________
UFC official items

demolitionman

Lesnar. Dont give velasquez much of a chance tbh. Hes good. But Lesnar is a step too high in class for him. Think a lot of people on this site are over estimating Cain.

unknown13

Also went for Lesnar by mid rounds stoppage

Fozzy

unknown13 wrote: »

That is a question I seriously want to know the answear of. Taylor is come forward all action fighter who is great to watch, Stout never backs from a stand up fight. Great fight and should be a war.

The answer is that Spike choose the prelim fights to air, not the UFC, and Spike likes to have fighters who have been on TUF

unknown13

Fozzy wrote: »

The answer is that Spike choose the prelim fights to air, not the UFC, and Spike likes to have fighters who have been on TUF

When Mc Coy gets Jensen out of there in the first or early second we will see the fight.

Hail 2 Da Thief

This is an awesome card!

Lesnar
Shields
Thiago
Hamill
Gonzaga
Cote

Lesnar- TKO
Kampmann-KO
Thiago-KO
Tito-Decision
Schuab-KO
Cote-TKO

MonkeyBalls

unknown13 wrote: »

Herb Dean is reffing the main event.

No better man for the job.

unknown13

MonkeyBalls wrote: »

No better man for the job.

He is a good ref but Mario Yamasaki is extremely under used which I find a shame because the Three top refs in MMA are: him, Herb Dean and Big John. Rosenthal isn't a top one yet but he is gradually becoming a top ref.

stiffler123

Did 2 accums for 1 euro. First is Lesnar, Shields, Ortiz, Sanchez, Shaub, Mcgee, Cote, Roberts, Stout, Yang and Madsen for the win. Returns 339.71. The second is the exact same except Valasquez instead of Lesnar, returns 458.61. Heres hopin...

Tones69

seadnamac wrote: »

I haven't seen any evidence of Lesnar's conditioning being suspect so I don't know where you're getting that from. He went three rounds with Heath Herring and looked like he could have done two more and that was over two years ago. He has improved in every aspect of his game since then and I would imagine his cardio has improved too.

3 rounds on top though and kicking herrings ass, think if cain puts him under pressure for a few rounds he wont be as fresh. BUT i think brocks cardio is well up there but but not on cains level, id love to see cain take him down

TheProdigy

Brock's cardio is fine and I don't even see how people say Cain has an advantage tbh? I think there cardio is probably on a similiar level, people need to stop listening to the hype out of the Velasquez camp. Lesnar took big shots off Carwin and he was gassed in the 2nd round but any fighter in the HW division who took those shots would also be gassed, and probably tko'd.

The only advantage Cain has is the stand up because Brock is quite visibly very timid to throw shots. If Cain cannot catch Brock clean then it is "good night Irene" for Mr.Velasquez.

Cain is being made out to be a better fighter than he is imho, he got a decision against a very mediocre fighter in Kongo and ran through a washed up Nogueira, although he has heavy hands.

I honestly think Brock will demolish him but stranger things have happened.

jayteecork

Fab card in fairness.

I have Lesnar to beat Cain. He's so rich, that he flies the best trainers in the world to his state of the art training facility.
He's also one the best college wrestlers in history and has an Iron jaw.

jayteecork

stiffler123 wrote: »

Did 2 accums for 1 euro. First is Lesnar, Shields, Ortiz, Sanchez, Shaub, Mcgee, Cote, Roberts, Stout, Yang and Madsen for the win. Returns 339.71. The second is the exact same except Valasquez instead of Lesnar, returns 458.61. Heres hopin...

Sure you're gtd the 339.71 anyway. The extra ton or so is a a bonus.