Predictions for UFC 121?

Devastator

4/1 Stout - Taylor to be fight of the night

unknown13

Devastator wrote: »

4/1 Stout - Taylor to be fight of the night

F**K, that is potentially free money.

Devastator

Just a pity its on undercard and may not get shown

t-ha

t-ha wrote: »

Not a card to make easy money off of IMO.

was right about this at least!

t-ha wrote: »

Brock v Cain
Cain's striking looked better than ever against Nog. People say Mir's did too & look what happened - but IMO Mir would've handled Brock standing and got demolished due to poor wrestling. I say Cain can wear Brock down standing and overwhelm him with volume punches to finish, similar to what he did to Ben Rothwell. However I also think that Brock knows this and will look to take Cain down hard, as often as needed, and lock him down and deliver a beating. Cain isn't going to be easy to finish so my guess is Brock looks to put him in a position where he can't defend himself intelligently, ala the one arm crucifix/nelson thingy or similar. Carwin stuffed alot of Brock's takedowns, but I think relied on his beast-strength (technical term) as much as technique and Cain doesn't have the same physical attributes as Carwin. I think this fight will come down to whether or not Brock can take Cain down - if he can't, it'll be an interesting fight!

Well Cain impressed the **** out of me! His main competitors are going to be JDS and Carwin and based on last night I think he will beat JDS for sure and should be able to outlast Carwin for the win. Was really impressed with how he avoided all Brock's punches and was able to take him down and control him.

t-ha wrote: »

Tito v's Hamill
This will be a standing fight. Tito can't take Hamill down, and Hamill wants it standing. I was very impressed with how Hamill fought Jardine. IMO his stand-up looked way ahead of where Tito is now. Tito is still hard to knock out though, since I'm not convinced he's fully concious to start with, so I see it being a 29-27 Hamill decision.

This went the way I thought it would, with the exception of it being a much better fight than I thought it would be! Tito actually looked really good in rd.1?

t-ha wrote: »

Kampmann v Shields
Kampmann will try to really use range well, but Shields isn't going to go down to peppering shots and at some point he'll close the distance and get his hands on him. I think Kampmann will stuff several take-downs but Shields will not let go and eventually will pull him to the mat. Once there, it's no secret tha Shields has been looking forward to elbows for years - it's gonna get messy and violent.

The violence didn't come from Shields as it happens - some nasty knees by Kampmann and I had him winning the fight tbh.

t-ha wrote: »

Gonzaga v Schaub
I'm mostly picking Gonzaga 'cos I don't like Schaub. Either man has a good chance to put the other away here, but I don't think landing on or taking shots from Gonzaga is anything like doing it with Chris Tucherer. Nepao hit's HARD!

Don't know what the story was with Napao this fight - seemed a bit hesitant. Hope Schaub gets Brock next and get's his ass whooped!

t-ha wrote: »

Sanchez v Thiago
Paulo Thiago didn't look great last time out, but honestly I would pick any of his opponents since joining the UFC over Diego Sanchez right now (he seems overweight and a bit lost since the title fight), and with a 3-2 record against them I smell a win here.

Well, Diego worked hard and it payed off - still don't see any big improvements in technique that are gonna help really get to the top of either WW or LW though.

So 2/5, and one not really being deserved IMO. Good thing I didn't lay money down on this one!

DeVore

DeVore wrote: »

The Cain vs Lesnar fight is really interesting, together with that fight and my curiousity to see if Tito shows up or if he still has "whiplash" or whatever, means I might even buy this on PPV.

Cain is superbly technical. Against Nog it was astonishing and anyone with Muay Thai experience or training couldnt but watch him in amazement imho. He was a rock solid rock'em-sock-em robot. Near perfect technique in my inexperienced eyes.

Lesnar is big. Really really big. Thats not a put down, its a statement of fact. If he hits Cain square... I dunno how many such hits *anyone* can take. If he shoots on him and takes him down, its hard to lift 280 pounds off you. I dont care how much cardio you have.

At the same time, Lesnar was clearly gassed after the first round with Carwin and what did he do in the first round? He got hit a lot... does that take much effort? I seriously question his gastank.

If Velasquez is smart he'll stay safe for a round or two, kick the legs out from under Lesnar and then try and do something in the latter rounds.

Cain is clearly the more technical fighter. Lesnar is clearly the bigger one. I cant wait to see how this plays.

I'm calling it for Cain, but there are some serious dangers he needs to be aware of.

DeV.

Told you I questioned Lesnars gas tank and that Cain was superb standing! Lesnars size didn't do enough for him and Cain picked him apart faster than even I would have thought.

DeV.

scudzilla

DeVore wrote: »

Told you I questioned Lesnars gas tank and that Cain was superb standing! Lesnars size didn't do enough for him and Cain picked him apart faster than even I would have thought.

DeV.

I think over 80% of true MMA fans, people who actually KNOW the sport had Cain to win last night

Mellor

scudzilla wrote: »

I think over 80% of true MMA fans, people who actually KNOW the sport had Cain to win last night

Yeah, I was a ridic price, esp his price for a win by TKO
(3.55 on bf)

I won 3 out of 5 bets, but the two I lost (gonzaga and thiago) were the smaller stakes of the lot, so made +50% profit.

seadnamac

scudzilla wrote: »

I think over 80% of true MMA fans, people who actually KNOW the sport had Cain to win last night

FFS. Is there any need for that kind of sh*te? You picked the winner. Well done. Now, this makes you a "true MMA fan"? Wow, you should be so proud. That kind of stuff really brings this place down.

Stupid post.

Devastator

Devastator wrote: »

4/1 Stout - Taylor to be fight of the night

Anyone see this fight? I have not, but heard it was split decision so I'm guessing it must have been a decent fight. Thought Sanchez/Thiago would get it when watching it. That was a crackin fight

unknown13

Devastator wrote: »

Anyone see this fight? I have not, but heard it was split decision so I'm guessing it must have been a decent fight. Thought Sanchez/Thiago would get it when watching it. That was a crackin fight

People on Sherdog (I know its Sherdog but they were pretty regular posters) said that Taylor was extremely unlucky.

scudzilla

seadnamac wrote: »

FFS. Is there any need for that kind of sh*te? You picked the winner. Well done. Now, this makes you a "true MMA fan"? Wow, you should be so proud. That kind of stuff really brings this place down.

Stupid post.

Ehhh? Whats the problem wit my post? I merely said that over 80% of true MMA fans, people who actually know and follow the sport would have picked Cain to win.

seadnamac

scudzilla wrote: »

Ehhh? Whats the problem wit my post? I merely said that over 80% of true MMA fans, people who actually know and follow the sport would have picked Cain to win.

Rubbish. You know exactly what you were implying. So for every five people who predicted a Lesnar win, only one of them can be a "true MMA fan?

scudzilla

seadnamac wrote: »

Rubbish. You know exactly what you were implying. So for every five people who predicted a Lesnar win, only one of them can be a "true MMA fan?

That's because most people (i'd say 80%) of the people i know who are really into MMA/UFC predicted a Cain win.

Dunno what you're getting so worked up about, must have hit ya really hard Brock losin and all

seadnamac

scudzilla wrote: »

That's because most people (i'd say 80%) of the people i know who are really into MMA/UFC predicted a Cain win.

Dunno what you're getting so worked up about, must have hit ya really hard Brock losin and all

OMG. Your hilarious. ROFL.

sonic.trip

unknown13 wrote: »

Stout is getting owned by Taylor.

eh hemmmmm



just seen the fights there as i was away. wow I knew cain was good and have won many a euro off him, but didn't think he would put brock out in the first round!
thought the sanchez/thiago fight was brilliant. great card, great fights, the way it should be

DeVore

"80% of true mma fans would have picked Cain to be the winner"

Is completely different from

"80% of people who picked Cain to win are true mma fans"


Tbh, had Lesnar caught Cain with a big hook, it might have been very different (this is mma, anything can happen in one fight) but Imho Cain was favourite to win and hence I called it as I saw it.

I've been following mma for a long time now and training Muay Thai for about 6 months so while i barely know the basics, I can recognize a guy who has it nailed extremely tight and there are few better than Cain. It wasn't clear in this mess of a scrap, but go watch Cain vs Big Nog and see what I mean.

DeV.

Mellor

DeVore wrote: »

Tbh, had Lesnar caught Cain with a big hook, it might have been very different (this is mma, anything can happen in one fight) but Imho Cain was favourite to win and hence I called it as I saw it.

I don't kniow tbh, Brocks obvious a very strong guy. But his striking is terrible. A big hook from him, isn't going to be much worse than a big hook from a guy with good striking around the size of Cain, JDS or some of the other HWs. Obviously he may have rocked him, look at the Kongo fight, but imo Brock struggles to transfer his size and strength to his fists.

BTW, I'm not just jumping on a bandwagon, I said this before the fight, I've said it since the Randy fight, I picked Cain to win via TKO on IPB, I made a nice bit off this card in general.

fakearms123

fakearms123 wrote: »

Here are my predictions for UFC 121, I had a good think about these picks:


Cain Velasquez via Unanimous Decision - the reason I made this choice is simple, Cain is a better fighter. He has more skills than Brock. Most people are stating the argument that Brock is stronger, and yes of course he is stronger but is he better? Cain is extremely well rounded, solid stand up and great wrestling and most of all he will not gas, making a 5 round war perfect for him. Brock's mentality for every fight is "Brock SMASH! Brock SMASH! Hulk SMASH! I mean Brock SMASH!", he will put Cain on his back in this fight but I see Cain having the skills to avoid punishment on the bottom and work his way up to the feet. I can see Cain catching Brock on the feet and knocking him down to the ground where Cain will work on top. Cain's chin is excellent, same with Brock, thats why I see it going the distance but in Cain's favour.

Recap: Cain proved he was a better fighter in every aspect of the game, Brock came out like I had guessed, Brock SMASH! Brock might have no problem putting the hurt on someone else but as soon as he gets hit in the face he panicks and falls around the place, I bet at his camp he doesnt get hit in the face much and therefore doesnt really know how to deal with it. He just crumbles to the floor after one big hit. It was Cain's night, he dominated Brock and made him look foolish.


Jake Shields via Unanimous Decision - although I feel as though Shields is a very one dimensional fighter and must I say quite boring he is however great at what he's good at and thats grappling and submissions under Cesar Gracie. Shields stand up striking is poor at best, I dont even think he uses his stand up striking to finish his opponents, instead using it for a takedown and his ground strikes are weak. Kampmann on the other hand has good kickboxing and is descent on the ground, he's basically good enough to hang with Shields on the ground and not get submitted. Shields will take this to the ground and control Kampmann for a decision or at least hump him until he gets a staph infection. But I got to give credit to Shields, he is a stud, here is just some of the guys he's beaten since 2006 - Yushin Okami, Carlos Condit, Mike Pyle, Paul Daley, Robbie Lawler, Mayhem Miller and Dan Henderson.

Recap: All I'm going to say on this fight is that GSP or Kos would absolutely destroy Shields, what a SNOREFEST! Shields is definitely one of the most boring and desperate fighters in MMA, his striking is shockingly bad and he shoots for takedowns every second and humps the sh*t out of you when he gets the mount, where was the ground and pound or elbows from the top... nowhere! GSP would have none of that and finish Shields in the first round.


Paul Thiago via Split Decision - I have Thiago winning this one simply because he is more technical than Diego... then again a chimp is more technical than Diego. I see Diego Sanchez pushing to clinch with Paulo to avoid the striking and the reach advantage, Diego might even secure a takedown or two which he will score points on. However Thiago will beat him in the stand up, I think he will deal well with the aggression of Sanchez, he is better on the ground, I can see him sweeping Diego for the a close win.

Recap: Great fight and well done to Sanchez, his aggression paid off in this one.


Matt Hamill via Unanimous Decision - your probably wondering why I have another decision on my predictions, there's two reasons
1. with Dana White cutting people after 1 or 2 loses, everyone is fighting not to lose and not fighting to win.
2. a lot of these guys on the card of great chins.
Now onto my pick, why did I pick Hamill, well Tito sucks, thats why. Last win in the UFC was 2006 and that was against Ken Shamrock... Tito sucks. Matt for the win.

Recap: Tito sucks.


Gabriel Gonzaga via First Round TKO - Brendan Schaub is one cocky SOB but he not on Gonzaga's level right now, Schaub has looked impressive since Nelson made him flop on the canvas like a fish out of water, I think Schaub requested this fight, probably was a bad idea because I see Gonzaga ripping his head off in the opening round. Gonzaga is coming off a lose and I think he's going to be hungry for a win, he's always fights nasty after he loses.

Recap: As much as I dislike Brendan Schaub for constantly calling people out or basically picking his own fights instead of leaving it up to the UFC he did beat Gonzaga and I was wrong. He did it again calling out Mir, he needs to get knocked out again so he gets sent back down to the undercard. I see them giving him Cheick Kongo to be honest.

I will come back to these predictions on monday and recap, I decided not to do a full thing on the undercard but here is just a quick look at my picks:
McGee
Cote
Guymon
Camozzi
Madsen

I didnt do too bad for my picks in the undercard and I was 3/5 in the main card, got to be pleased with that i suppose.

DeVore

I agree with your reasoning but my background in Maths forces me to point out that in a 2 horse race 2.5/5 would be expected if it was a monkey tossing a coin

(but yeah, I do agree with your analysis, Tito vs Hamill was anyones guess as was Paolo vs Sanchez in the end and Gonzaga was just plain freakin weird).

DeV.

unknown13

Tito and Tiago didn't look poor in defeat either. Tito isn't finished that is for sure. Tiago has risen the ranks way too quickly. The defeat was probably the better thing for his career because he will be built back up a slower pace.

stiffler123

scudzilla wrote: »

I think over 80% of true MMA fans, people who actually KNOW the sport had Cain to win last night

83.75 % to be precise:pac:

Devastator

Devastator wrote: »

Anyone see this fight? I have not, but heard it was split decision so I'm guessing it must have been a decent fight. Thought Sanchez/Thiago would get it when watching it. That was a crackin fight

Good article about Paul Taylor....which answers my question


an extract from article, DW talking

“Paul Taylor… its unfortunate for him that Diego went out and put on the performance that he did because [otherwise] that probably would have been the fight of the night. I love that kid, he always brings it and he comes to fight,” White said with a smile.