The 2.5 Goal Line over and under log

mike65

This is a purely stat driven log which is keep tabs on the sides whos games are most likely to be over 2.5 goals and sides whos games are most likely to be under 2.5 goals per game. To be completely stat true I should update with every game but thats a pain so what I'll do is update the list at the start of every month. That said these teams tend to be the same year in year out esp the low scoring ones.

Over 2.5 goals
Rangers (Scotland 1) 100%
Fortuna Sittard (Holland 2) 100%
Racing Gent (Belgium 1) 90.9%
Ado Den Haag (Holland 1) 88.9%
St Galen (Switzerland 1) 81.8%

Under 2.5 goals
Maritimo (Portugal 1) 100.%
Larissa (Greece 1) 100%
Brest (France 1) 100%
Southampton (England 3) 93.7%
Boulogne (France 1) 90.9%

board_stiff

Hi Mike,

Very interesting theory. Looking forward to seeing how it pans out over the season. Had you picked these teams before the start of the season or have you chosen them based on their percentage of over/under 2.5 goals to date this season?

I notice that one of your picks, Maritimo, competing in the league last season had 13 games out of 30 which were under 2.5 goals which would not give any confidence in picking them for this season.

mike65

Its this seasons results, clearly if you were to back blindly you'd come to grief pretty quickly but looking at each game it should possible to navigate around potential potholes. Sporting v Maritimo would probably be +2.5 goal game for example.

board_stiff

Agreed. I just assumed from your initial post that you had followed these teams last season and had identified a pretty high strike rate over the course of last season. Perhaps a bit of wishful thinking on my part!

The question is what criteria do you use to identify these potential potholes?

I'm sure you just picked Sporting off the top of your head as they are a top team and you would expect them to be high scorers but interestingly Sporting have played 7 league games this season. 6 ending in under 2.5 goals. One of which was against Maritimo which ended 1-0.

Hope I'm not coming across as confrontational or dismissive of your approach.

I quite like your approach but I think like you have said if you back blindly you will soon start losing money. However if it can be developed by adding some other criteria(such as opposition scoring rate, etc.) to rate a match and deliver a strike rate of 70%+ you would be laughing all the way to the bank.

mike65

No worries, all schemes need to be put under some scrutiny!
At the end of the day (as they say in football) you have to check starting 11s, injury lists, home/away goal-line difference, etc and make a judgement.

mike65

Game one results

Over 2.5 goals
Rangers (Scotland 1) 100% win
Fortuna Sittard (Holland 2) 100% win
Racing Gent (Belgium 1) 90.9% win
Ado Den Haag (Holland 1) 88.9% win
St Galen (Switzerland 1) 81.8% win

Under 2.5 goals
Maritimo (Portugal 1) 100.% win
Larissa (Greece 1) 100% win
Brest (France 1) 100% win
Southampton (England 3) 93.7% loose :mad:
Boulogne (France 1) 90.9% win

That would have been a 150/1 approx accu had Soton come in. Still 9 from 10 is encouraging.

board_stiff

This weeks set of results look really promising!

mike65

Over 2.5 goals
Rangers (Scotland 1) 100% lose
Fortuna Sittard (Holland 2) 100% win
Racing Gent (Belgium 1) 90.9% win
Ado Den Haag (Holland 1) 88.9% lose
St Galen (Switzerland 1) 81.8% win

Under 2.5 goals
Maritimo (Portugal 1) 100.% win
Larissa (Greece 1) 100% lose
Brest (France 1) 100% win
Southampton (England 3) 93.7% lose
Boulogne (France 1) 90.9% win

mike65

Over 2.5 goals
Rangers (Scotland 1) 100% win
Fortuna Sittard (Holland 2) 100% win
Racing Gent (Belgium 1) 90.9% lose
Ado Den Haag (Holland 1) 88.9% lose
St Galen (Switzerland 1) 81.8% lose

Under 2.5 goals
Maritimo (Portugal 1) 100.% win
Larissa (Greece 1) 100% win
Brest (France 1) 100% lose
Southampton (England 3) 93.7% lose
Boulogne (France 1) 90.9% win