Darsar log (Football, NFL/NCAA and laying Horses)

darsar

Hi all,

I have been following the Challenges/logs thread religiously for the past two months. I most follow Pyro for horses and Archi for NFL and then my own knowledge for football.

As I said over on one of Pyro's threads I lacked discipline which I am trying to address.

Today from €75 in a new BF account I selected a few horses myself to lay and I also had €20 on Bristol City v QPR to be under 2.5 goals so my account now stands at €141.43.

I will be back soon with a screen shot so as not to be afterposting!

I will not include today's winnings in my log P&L.

Darren

darsar

Bet 1

NCAA - Cincinnati -8.5 tonight v USF

South Florida are struggling and their QB is misfiring big time. Coupled with a strong, in rythem Cincinnati offence I am hopeful of the handicap match

Stake €21.43 @ 1.98

x PyRo

Best of luck with the thread dude.

darsar

x PyRo wrote: »

Best of luck with the thread dude.

Thanks a mill, you'll play a big part in it!

I cannot post screenshot from my phone so I'll have to be given the benefit on this occasion.

coughlan08

best of luck,it should defo keep you disciplined if you log every bet.

btw,,make sure its a profitable one,,or else....:pac:

darsar

coughlan08 wrote: »

best of luck,it should defo keep you disciplined if you log every bet.

btw,,make sure its a profitable one,,or else....:pac:

If it's not profitable I'll be pm'ing you for a loan for Santa! I will log every bet and may even do a weekly screenshot.

I have figured out how to link from phone (Mrs broke my laptop ) so as promised in the first thread; see below links

http://img52.imageshack.us/i/imageioso.jpg/

http://img200.imageshack.us/i/imagebph.jpg/

http://img258.imageshack.us/i/imagesz.jpg/

Darren

coughlan08

whatever you feel will make you disciplined,do it..
it would be very nice to know that mr.power paid for your presents...(or whatever bookmaker you use)..;)

darsar

coughlan08 wrote: »

whatever you feel will make you disciplined,do it..
it would be very nice to know that mr.power paid for your presents...(or whatever bookmaker you use)..;)

Can you tell me if those links worked? I am using Betfair.

coughlan08

yep;)

darsar

Great that's handy enough, makes
It very easy to keep P&L.

Do you guys feel I should make myself a target? It's not something I have thought about.

coughlan08

well i did,

i set a target of doubling my money by the end of the week 2 days ago,and have already sur passed it...but it is really up to you...in my passed logs i didnt but i was working off a lot higher bank,,imo if your bank is that 140 or whatever i would not bet more than 25-35 in any given day,if your up for the day then increase your stakes in proportion to the bank,
slow and steady wins the race..

ive no doubt you will make profit as your one of a few that take the time on here to ask for guidance, and thus think you will now be able to stay disciplined.that is the key in my opinion,
and whatever you do dont go chasing losses..;)

darsar

It's the chasing that does the damage no doubt but I guess when it comes to chasing I'll learn then if ihave learned and matured as a person to just stop and go again fresh the next day.

The P&L will ultimately determine the amount and size of bets.

darsar

darsar wrote: »

Bet 1

NCAA - Cincinnati -8.5 tonight v USF

South Florida are struggling and their QB is misfiring big time. Coupled with a strong, in rythem Cincinnati offence I am hopeful of the handicap match

Stake €21.43 @ 1.98

LOSE

Starting Bank - €141.43

Current bank - €120.00

P&L - (-€21.43)

Bad start, bet 2 to look forward to.

darsar

Bet 2

Sunderland v Aston Villa

Draw @ 3.3

€10

darsar

Bet 3

2.45 Aintree

Fortysecondstreet

Lay @ 4.4; 7.50, liability €25.50

Horse who will be first time out today since April. Likes the going to be good from results of chase meetings last season. A first, a second and a third from four good going races. 22nd Jan he last went on soft ground in a class 4 ( I know Aintree is good to soft not soft, rain forecast again after some last night) went off at 8/11 fav and after making error 4 out managed 2nd at 11-0.

Fortysecondstreet I feel is opposable with more rain. He has not had a run and today runs off 9lbs more than last time out when he was fourth in five horse race, tailing off halfway out. It was a grade 2 however but the ground is the key here.

darsar

Bet 4

Lay Reading @ 4.4

€10; liability €34

Reading coming off the back of two poor defeats while Burnley have a home record of 5 wins, one draw scoring 15 and conceeding three.

darsar

Bet 5

Rotherham v Wycombe

Over 2.5 goals

€10 @ 1.98

Edit: reasoning is I wanted to do Adam Le Fondre FGS but there is no market for it on BF. Rotherham are liable to conceed and they always score (not today now!) so I can see a few goals here

darsar

Bet 2: LOSE - €10

Bet 3: WIN +€7.12

Bet 4: LOSE. -€34.00

Bet 5 WIN. +€9.31

Starting Bank: +€141.43

Current Bank: +€92.43

Total P&L: -€49.00

Totally off on my laying Reading.

I did not see the horse race where I layed Fortysecond Street so I am not sure if I did well in my first real picking my own lay or something happened in the race to the horse.

I was a goal out in my Sunderland v Villa draw

And

Right call in the Rotherham game. Bet in after twenty odd mins.

All in all Reading was very costly and I don't like the look of the minus sign in my P&L but i don't feel silly inside. I think my selection were justifiable but it wasn't to be for Burnley.

darsar

Bet 6

Lay WAR PAINTER

€10 @ 2.88; liability €18.80



Money is coming for my selection but I am opposing as I would select KISSING CLARA & AROWANA before my lay selection and it is first time out also. Risky I know, but it is how I am seeing it and it may prove to be a good call, or a learning curve!

EDIT: would help if I posted where the race was. T'was Kemp 6:45

darsar

darsar wrote: »

Bet 6

Lay WAR PAINTER

€10 @ 2.88; liability €18.80



Money is coming for my selection but I am opposing as I would select KISSING CLARA & AROWANA before my lay selection and it is first time out also. Risky I know, but it is how I am seeing it and it may prove to be a good call, or a learning curve!

EDIT: would help if I posted where the race was. T'was Kemp 6:45

LOSE

Starting Bank: +€141.43

Current Bank: +€73.63

Total P&L: -€67.63

darsar

Bet 7

Tow 1.30

Lay TULLYRAINE @ 3.75

Again a favourite and risky. Won last race in good time too but I am hoping either ANY CURRENCY ( dropping from a class two latest - finishing four and a half + a head lenghts to Poker De Sivola at Chelt and class three previous to that finishing 5th but only 3 1/4 lenghts beaten) and YABORA dropping a class can get the the line first.

€7

darsar

Bet 8

Celtic v Rangers over 2.5 goals

€20 @ 2.1

Both teams have being involved in so many over 2.5 games this year and recently Celtic lasts 4 games have been overs and Rangers last three been overs. Four games ago they beat Bursaspor 1-0 in CL.

In previous 8 Old Firms there has only been two overs in the 8 but today Celtic go very attacking, both teams can score and both liable to concede so open floodgates I hope.

darsar

darsar wrote: »

Bet 7

Tow 1.30

Lay TULLYRAINE @ 3.75

Again a favourite and risky. Won last race in good time too but I am hoping either ANY CURRENCY ( dropping from a class two latest - finishing four and a half + a head lenghts to Poker De Sivola at Chelt and class three previous to that finishing 5th but only 3 1/4 lenghts beaten) and YABORA dropping a class can get the the line first.

€7

WIN return €6.65

darsar

Bet 9
14:55 Wex

Lay Fully Funded @ 2.3

Short price favourite has disappointed on his last two races going off short price favourite in Maiden Hurdles also. Failed at 3m finishing 5th in listowel 12th Sept beaten 15&3/4L on Gd-yld on first run this season.

Dropping to 2m2f here but from last to races last season I see Fully Funded could find no more under pressure beaten by 7L Fairyhouse and 15l Leop in Maiden Hurdles also.

€7 @ 2.3

darsar

darsar wrote: »

Bet 8

Celtic v Rangers over 2.5 goals

€20 @ 2.1

Both teams have being involved in so many over 2.5 games this year and recently Celtic lasts 4 games have been overs and Rangers last three been overs. Four games ago they beat Bursaspor 1-0 in CL.

In previous 8 Old Firms there has only been two overs in the 8 but today Celtic go very attacking, both teams can score and both liable to concede so open floodgates I hope.

WIN returns €20.90
2-1 to Rangers after 55min.

Funnily enough I was praying from 35min for a goal before half time and Celtic got it in time added on. I think that may have totally changed Rangers teamtalk!

darsar

Bet 10

Liverpool v Blackburn

Over 2.5 goals

€15 @ 2.12

Liverpool have average 1.2 goals in their last 10 home games while Blackburn have averaged 1 goal in their last 10 away games. All this points to is under 2.5 goals but with the pressure Liverpool are under and Blackburn being one place above then they are both as bad as each other.

Blackburn held Man City to a 1-1 at Eastlands but City missed a host of chances.

This is Liverpools chance to take some pressure off but I can see Kalinic maybe scoring so Liverpool would need at least 2 to win the game.

darsar

darsar wrote: »

Bet 9
14:55 Wex

Lay Fully Funded @ 2.3

Short price favourite has disappointed on his last two races going off short price favourite in Maiden Hurdles also. Failed at 3m finishing 5th in listowel 12th Sept beaten 15&3/4L on Gd-yld on first run this season.

Dropping to 2m2f here but from last to races last season I see Fully Funded could find no more under pressure beaten by 7L Fairyhouse and 15l Leop in Maiden Hurdles also.

€7 @ 2.3

LOSE

-€9.10

Fully Funded won at 9/10f, easy win for him




Starting Bank: +€141.43

Current Bank: +€92.08

Total P&L: -€49.18

darsar

Bet 11

Man City v Arsenal

Under 2.5 goals

€25 @ 1.98

Arsenal have gone to tough place like Chelsea, Liverpool and Sunderland and kept it tight. Hopefully more of the same today.

darsar

Bet 12

€10 Green Bay Packers to win @ 1.74

NFL

darsar

Bet 13

Oakland Raiders +8.5 points

€15 @ 1.76


No real reason, just a matter of personal opinion.

darsar

darsar wrote: »

Bet 10

Liverpool v Blackburn

Over 2.5 goals

€15 @ 2.12

Liverpool have average 1.2 goals in their last 10 home games while Blackburn have averaged 1 goal in their last 10 away games. All this points to is under 2.5 goals but with the pressure Liverpool are under and Blackburn being one place above then they are both as bad as each other.

Blackburn held Man City to a 1-1 at Eastlands but City missed a host of chances.

This is Liverpools chance to take some pressure off but I can see Kalinic maybe scoring so Liverpool would need at least 2 to win the game.

WIN return €15.96