The lotterys fixed?

i57dwun4yb1pt8

this has been the rumour for many years now , and common knowledge in certain circles.


would you really believe and irish government run 'lottery' would be kosher , in any case ??

if you do , sweet jesus .

caseyann

Galway K9 wrote: »

I noticed that ages ago. Obviously it is fixed. Even when he cant read it out, cause bad spelling, he gets prompted what it says. ha

Since recession all cash aint paying out like it used to either :mad: i used to be really lucky on that

Galway K9

kosher???

david75

There's a small metal ballbearing in the selected balls, not magnets, when the vacuum(and it's a really high powered one) goes on, so does the magnet in the tube. That's how they select the numbers they need. There's only 7 balls inside the drum with ballbearings in them, so the order they come out in is of no matter.

As to the winning streak tickets, that's recorded on tuesday mornings and the names you see on screen are added in in post production which happens before broadcast on saturday. 3 star tickets do have to go through 2 previous screening and selection processes before they make it to the drum in the studio, so as to have a fair distribution of contestants from among the different counties, thus ensuring interest in maintained throught the whole country. If it were done otherwise, there would likely be a disproportionate amount of contestant from urban centres such as Dublin and Cork.

newmug

Oracle wrote: »

I doubt the presenter says the number without it being confirmed to them. If you can read the numbers before they stop on the draw line, thats good for you, I certainly can't.

Sorry bud, but thats just YOUR bad eyesight then.

Bluetonic

Galway K9 wrote: »

I noticed that ages ago. Obviously it is fixed. Even when he cant read it out, cause bad spelling, he gets prompted what it says. ha

Thats because there is a pre draw which screens the tickets. They are all re-written on new tickets and allocated a number. The number is called out first and this allows the producer to put the details on screen.

Only 100 three star tickets make it to the 'live' studio draw for various reasons.

Colonel Sanders

Carra23 wrote: »

I have been saying it's some how rigged for a long time but my theory is based on the fact that if you do a quick pick say of two lines , 9/10 times you will get at least one number on both lines. I know this wont gaurentee no winner but it just reduces the chances. If you've got 3 on both your lines and 3 doesn't come out your lines are dead. Coupled with the OP's theory it would be very easy to rig.

If you assume the first line is randomly selected and then the 2nd line is also randomly selected (independent of the first) there is just shy of a 60% chance that a number from the first line will be repeated in the 2nd

bonkey

I don't know the structure of the Irish lotto, but if its picking 6 numbers from a pool of 40, the odds are:

  6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1
--------------------------
40 x 39 x 38 x 37 36 x 35

This works out at about 1 : 3.84m

For the bank-holiday scenario, where there's an extra million in payout added on or whatever, the increase in play significantly increases the odds of a win.

For the "lotto produced same numbers" event...sure, its long odds....but bear in mind that this is reduced by the fact that no-one tried to predict which lotto draw would produce this. So while it can be claimed to be a one-in-10000-years event, that would assume that only one lotto game was in the issue, and that the cutoff was defined at exactly the period which was observed. Consider all lotto games, over all the years played, and the fact that a match over a larger timeframe would probably still have been reported.....and the odds of a repeated result making the news aren't 1 in 10,000 years any more.

As for the magnets theory...I don't buy it. The dynamics would give it away....you'd be able to show different behaviour of the selected balls from the others on playback.

caseyann

http://www.herald.ie/national-news/could-an-rte-star-have-scooped-lottorsquos-euro16m-donnybrook-bonanza-2393557.html


Now wouldnt that be called just typical .

As the rumour machine went into overdrive in Donnybrook today, all sorts of names were being bandied about as second biggest jackpot in history was won.

Pat Kenny, Joe Duffy and Grainne Seoige were being mentioned today, despite the fact that there is no proof that the winning ticket was purchased by someone from RTE in the first place.:rolleyes: fixed lotto

david75

would RTE staff be allowed play the lotto? in most competitions, employees of the people running it or having anything to do with it and their families are all banned from participating. i wonder.

todolist

copacetic wrote: »

Really? Do tell. Someone has a conspiracy theory that the money didn't go to hospitals. I've never seen anyone claim that people didn't win before? or the draws themselves were fixed. Where is the proof, who 'revealed' it?

Besides despite all that, the sweepstakes draws wasn't made live on TV with an auditor present.

A recently published book details the whole sorry story of the fraud that was the Irish hospital Sweepstakes.The book is "The Greatest bleeding Heart Racket in the world" By Damian Corless.RTE had a documentary about it a few years ago too.It's amazing the whole thing is forgotten.

uprising2

Nozebleed wrote: »

if its fixed somehow by using magnets...surely all the magnetic balls would stick to the other magnetic at the same time? it is fixed..how im not sure.

Hollow tin balls dipped in plastic would solve your problem.

To be honest it wouldn't need too many people to fix it, it would only really take the official, I wouldn't say too many people get to handle their balls.

I was only talking about this the other day, this is the truth, believe it or don't, but one saturday about 15 years ago or so, I was listening to a scanner radio, just scanning through frequencies and I came across somebody speaking on a walkie talkie, telling somebody to give her a five, give him a three, then the sounds of the RTE studio sound effects and the presenter (could have been Mike Murphy??, not sure!), but 2 seconds after the man gave a number the presenter could be heard announcing a 3 star prize or whatever number had just been won on the "random" machine.
I heard this with my own ears and a few in RTE have to be in on it, I heard this a few hours before the "Winning Streak" or whatever it's called was shown on the TV..

But, yeah, the lotto, I'd say would be rigged, everything else is, the shadow economy and all that, even if only for the PR around the "one" winning ticket, wouldn't have the same affect if 20 or so people happened to win it together.

Here's a quote from an article about the british lottery.

Completed in early 2002, the nine-page document entitled 'The Randomness of the National Lottery' was meant to offer irrefutable proof that it was random. But the statisticians who produced the report, Dr John Haigh and Professor Charles Goldie, members of the Royal Statistical Society and readers in mathematics at the University of Sussex, hit a snag. The lottery seemed not to be as subject to chance as it should be. Some combinations popped up with 'unusually high' frequency, and others showed a 'major departure from randomness'.
The revelation of the report's existence is bound to spark public interest. The commission has regular calls from people suggesting the lottery is not random, allegations that have to be investigated.
The two academics found that 38 was drawn so many times that they wondered whether it needed to be 'physically examined' to see if there was an anomaly in the balls' make-up which meant it was sucked out of the lottery machines more often. The report also found that the 'bonus ball', drawn from the Lancelot machine using one particular set of balls, would usually be a high number - 40 or above. In addition, the Thunderball game produced freak patterns. Draws that were four weeks apart seemed to 'talk' to each other. If one draw favoured a high set of numbers, there would be a correspondingly low set four draws later.
Perhaps alarmed at how the findings would be received, the commission did not publicise them, simply noting in its annual report that a Royal Statistical Society study had 'confirmed that results were consistent with the draw being random'.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2004/dec/12/lottery.uknews

The lottery is a business after all, so I don't think anybody should be shocked to think it could possibly be fixed.

Basically what the above means is that if the National Lottery Lotto draw was fair, then considering you pay €1.50 per line, the jackpot should be a minimum of over €12M every time! So you could look at it like the National Lottery is only giving you 16% of what you should be getting, if you win a jackpot of €2M.
But it gets much worse as you go down the payout structure...the real odds of getting 5 number plus the bonus are 1,392,317 / 1. If you match 5 plus the bonus, you get...wait for it...€25K!! If they were fair about it you would be getting over €2M, which means they are paying you only approx. 1.2% of what you should get. Unbelievable.
http://www.lottoresults.ie/analysis

Jesus Wept

Carra23 wrote: »

I have been saying it's some how rigged for a long time but my theory is based on the fact that if you do a quick pick say of two lines , 9/10 times you will get at least one number on both lines. I know this wont gaurentee no winner but it just reduces the chances. If you've got 3 on both your lines and 3 doesn't come out your lines are dead. Coupled with the OP's theory it would be very easy to rig.

Well spotted.
I have a system I've been working on since 1996 that has paid dividends, I am contantly refining it and am writing an e-book at the moment.

sbsquarepants

The-Rigger wrote: »

Well spotted.
I have a system I've been working on since 1996 that has paid dividends, I am contantly refining it and am writing an e-book at the moment.

Tell the truth, are you the rigger?
I don't believe it's rigged, the problem lies in the vast majority of people don't really understand probability.
For example if the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 came out most people would be shocked, but they're no less likely than any other set of seemingly "random" numbers.
I agree it can appear that there is always a roll over coming up to bank holidays, but in the grand scheme of things 10 or 12 bank holiday mega jackpots in a row is inconsequential, it only seems like it is to us because we think in smaller scales.

bonkey

Carra23 wrote: »

I have been saying it's some how rigged for a long time but my theory is based on the fact that if you do a quick pick say of two lines , 9/10 times you will get at least one number on both lines. I know this wont gaurentee no winner but it just reduces the chances.

It doesn't effect the chances of hitting the jacpot one iota.

In fact, if you had two lines and one of them was 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and the other was 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, you'd still have exactly the same chances of hitting the jackpot as with any other two lines.

Diabhal Beag

It is a fix. On Winning Streak there is always 4 Dubs and 2 people from the country (shameless boggers)

espinolman

Its probably not fixed , i think its that possibly they have one of these , that it appears to be rigged .

spoonface

dimejinky9 wrote: »

ok, a mate just left KPMG and told me the lotto is rigged, this is how apparently,

the machines go around the country go off at 7 or 730 which gives them time to determine which combinations of numbers havent been played by anybody and which have been played, that then determines what numbers go into the drum.

its not filmed live, they have 2 different sets of balls, one set with magnets in and one with none, and the 7 numbers they want drawn are put in with the magnets inside, the rest obviously are ordinary balls, the sucker yoke that pulls the balls out actually has another magnet in it as well so they obviously get to choose which numbers come out and pretty much when its won or when to let it roll over...they 'fix' it in the run up to every bank holiday weekend especially, letting it roll over in the weeks prior, and using statistics, selecting the numbers that come up most often in effect choosing a winner.

it's simple when you look at it. I see it but i'm not sure i'm buying it?

If this is really true, would your mate be willing to be interviewed anonymously for a newspaper article to blow the lid off this?

Carra23

bonkey wrote: »

It doesn't effect the chances of hitting the jacpot one iota.

In fact, if you had two lines and one of them was 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and the other was 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, you'd still have exactly the same chances of hitting the jackpot as with any other two lines.

I beg to differ ! If like the OP suggests , the people running the lottery can control what numbers come out then surely they can have some influence on what numbers people are given when they choose quick pick.

So if they just choose 6 numbers and make sure every quick pick has at least one of them numbers on each line and they decide not to pull those numbers out in the draw , then every single quick pick bought is dead in the water which greatly reduces the chances of some one winning the jackpot.

My theory with the quick pick thing isn't just pulled from my imagination . I play the lottery regularly Wed/Sat every week for years and always do quick pick. I never kept stats but I would guess at least 8 out of 10 times I get at least one number on both my lines ! Could be coincedence but it's odd all the same

RGDATA!

spoonface wrote: »

If this is really true, would your mate be willing to be interviewed anonymously for a newspaper article to blow the lid off this?

stokes, kennedy and crowley would have him 'disappeared' before you could say 'independent adjudicators'

Kashkai

Interesting theories...........................

I play four panels, 2 of my own numbers and 2 "quick picks" and while I've won a few quid and some scratch cards on my own numbers, I've never won anything on the quick picks.

Where a computer is used to select numbers at ramdon for "quick picks", this is open to intervention on behalf of whomever controls the computer. Similarily, whomever owns the lotto balls, has access to change their weight to ensure that certain numbers come out.

zenno

anything with large amounts of money involved is fixed/rigged/corrupted. this goes for the Lotto as well.

david75

Carra23 wrote: »

I beg to differ ! If like the OP suggests , the people running the lottery can control what numbers come out then surely they can have some influence on what numbers people are given when they choose quick pick.

So if they just choose 6 numbers and make sure every quick pick has at least one of them numbers on each line and they decide not to pull those numbers out in the draw , then every single quick pick bought is dead in the water which greatly reduces the chances of some one winning the jackpot.

My theory with the quick pick thing isn't just pulled from my imagination . I play the lottery regularly Wed/Sat every week for years and always do quick pick. I never kept stats but I would guess at least 8 out of 10 times I get at least one number on both my lines ! Could be coincedence but it's odd all the same

Bingo. Now you've got it

Spoonface, i'll ask but I doubt it. Even if an ex employee, there'd still be contracts to cover clients confidentiality and privacy i'd image, especially on this level. I'll ask though.

SparrowTown

david75 wrote: »

Bingo. Now you've got it

Spoonface, i'll ask but I doubt it. Even if an ex employee, there'd still be contracts to cover clients confidentiality and privacy i'd image, especially on this level. I'll ask though.

would a contract that allowed /covered fraud be valid?

david75

His employment contract meant. Even after youve left you arent usually allowed divulge company procedure/policies/secrets.

Carra23

What about the 'Monday Millions' standard jackpot of 1 mill , never rolls over regardless of whether it hasn't been won or not ! I have never heard of anyone winning it , is there a way to check the stats ?

A wise man once said that the lottery is just an extra tax on the poor unfortunate souls who play it and he was spot on whoever he was.

SparrowTown

david75 wrote: »

His employment contract meant. Even after youve left you arent usually allowed divulge company procedure/policies/secrets.

if the procedures were illegal that is not valid is it? would he not be witholding info of a fraud

seamus

dimejinky9 wrote: »

ok, a mate just left KPMG and told me the lotto is rigged, this is how apparently,

One person from KPMG attends the RTE studio and watches the balls being loaded into the drum and selected. He is otherwise not involved in configuring the drum, does not handle the balls, and it's always one of the same small group of KPMG employees - a partner or director. They don't select KPMG employees at random and send them to the studio.

So even if you do have a mate who just left KPMG he would have never been in a position to even become remotely privvy to any details of the lotto. He's telling you porkie pies unless he himself was a high-level member of management and had been directly involved in fixing the lotto.

Ciaramb92

caseyann wrote: »

That shouldnt be allowed as then they are controlling who goes on and when.I mean the names pop up on screen before he even read it. Thats called choosing and blocking people from getting on who should have.

Someone else might have said it already but Winning Streak is recorded in the afternoon. That's why the name appears on screen at the same time it's drawn!

Galway K9

Ciaramb92 wrote: »

Someone else might have said it already but Winning Streak is recorded in the afternoon. That's why the name appears on screen at the same time it's drawn!

When he pulls out a card, and cant read the writing, he gets prompted from somewhere. The screen thing is for the audience.

quasar2010

Have a look at this concerning lottery fixing. I think this guy may well have something:-
http://featherstonesmad.smfforfree4.com/index.php/topic,1684.msg8143/topicseen.html#msg8143
Cheers.

meglome

quasar2010 wrote: »

Have a look at this concerning lottery fixing. I think this guy may well have something:-
http://featherstonesmad.smfforfree4.com/index.php/topic,1684.msg8143/topicseen.html#msg8143
Cheers.

Don't suppose it was you who posted the thread on the other forum too was it?

quasar2010

No, i'm part of the team that created the forum and I saw the posts and then looked into what he's saying and i found this place.

Dude111

I dont know if it is or not BUT I DO KNOW ONE THING!

I made a program on my COMMODORE 64 to duplicate a lotto game we have here in the USA called "Quick Draw"

I DID NOT EVER WIN ANYTHING BIG THE YEARS I HAD IT!!!!!!!! -- Maybe $50 virtual dollars a few times

I DIDNT RIG ANYTHING WHEN WRITING IT (I used standard randomise routines)


Its all about the randomisation of numbers (Its amazing what numbers are picked AT RANDOM (Example: Sometimes 22,23,24,25,26,27 came up during a draw which is insane!!))


Sadly i spilled ICED TEA on that disk and i couldnt pull the program off of it

LESSON: Be very careful if you have sticky drinks around your values!

Rabble Rabble

humanji wrote: »

Roll overs mean that the next jackpot is higher. A higher jackpot will have more people entering in order to win it. More people entering it means more profits for those who run it. And when they do pay out the jackpot, it's only a tiny amount of the total profits, so they make a fortune.

so all they have to do to increase the number of rollovers is increase the odds.

Any brainics here want to prove, mathematically, that the odds are greater for a rollover on Bank Holiday weekends - i.e. the previous weeks are more likely to be not won.

( I hope the fact that the larger numbers are more likely to be won is not surprising anyone).

Rabble Rabble

Dude111 wrote: »

I dont know if it is or not BUT I DO KNOW ONE THING!

I made a program on my COMMODORE 64 to duplicate a lotto game we have here in the USA called "Quick Draw"

I DID NOT EVER WIN ANYTHING BIG THE YEARS I HAD IT!!!!!!!! -- Maybe $50 virtual dollars a few times

I DIDNT RIG ANYTHING WHEN WRITING IT (I used standard randomise routines)


Its all about the randomisation of numbers (Its amazing what numbers are picked AT RANDOM (Example: Sometimes 22,23,24,25,26,27 came up during a draw which is insane!!))


Sadly i spilled ICED TEA on that disk and i couldnt pull the program off of it

LESSON: Be very careful if you have sticky drinks around your values!

What are you talking about.

Rabble Rabble

I have been saying it's some how rigged for a long time but my theory is based on the fact that if you do a quick pick say of two lines , 9/10 times you will get at least one number on both lines

It is not that unlikely, now is it, that some numbers would repeat in a random pick of lines.

Tell us. How many lines do you normally pick? Do you really expect that if there are 8 lines that a number would not repeat.

You are noticing the numbers which do repeat. The chances of a number repeating is very very very high.

Nothing to see here, expect the Irish State needs to spend more money on maths.

seamus

Any brainics here want to prove, mathematically, that the odds are greater for a rollover on Bank Holiday weekends - i.e. the previous weeks are more likely to be not won.

Well it can't be proven mathematically because the format of the game doesn't change on bank holiday weekends.

It could however be proven statistically if someone had such statistics and could show that rollovers more often occur before bank holiday weekends than any other weekend.

todolist

Carra23 wrote: »

What about the 'Monday Millions' standard jackpot of 1 mill , never rolls over regardless of whether it hasn't been won or not ! I have never heard of anyone winning it , is there a way to check the stats ?

A wise man once said that the lottery is just an extra tax on the poor unfortunate souls who play it and he was spot on whoever he was.

I checked the stats over on the lotto.ie website.So far this year there has only been two winners,(April 12,July 26).Thats 41 draws so far this year with just two jackpot winners.It's an abysmal ratio of winners.

seamus

todolist wrote: »

I checked the stats over on the lotto.ie website.So far this year there has only been two winners,(April 12,July 26).Thats 41 draws so far this year with just two jackpot winners.It's an abysmal ratio of winners.

Depends on the numbers who play tbh.

The odds of winning an individual Monday millions draw are about 1 in 3.2 million.

So the odds of an individual winning over 41 draws are 41 in 3.2 million or about 1 in 78,000.

That two people have won the prize over 41 draws suggests that about 160,000 people play Monday millions on a weekly basis. That is, if 160,000 people play 41 draws and the odds of winning at least one of those draws is 1 in 78,000, then it stands to reason that 2 people will win the jackpot in that time.

Looking at the actual figures, my estimate is a bit off. Around 10,000 people match 3 balls each week. The odds of doing that are 1 in 30. Which when expanded, says that about 300,000 people play on a weekly basis (or more correctly 300,000 lines are played on a weekly basis).

That suggests that in fact 3 people should have won by now. But two winners is well within the expected domain. If no-one had won by now, you could raise an eyebrow. Or if we were expecting 20 winners, you could be suspicious. But the figures appear to tally, however low the figure is. Statistically speaking, now is the time to play Monday Millions because we're due another winner (and a second soon after).

Of course, this is engineered, rather than fixed. The possible prize is €1m, but they only take in €300,000 on a weekly basis, and pay out about €75,000 in prizes. So they need five weeks to build up a prize fund to cover a win. Without profit. Or ten weeks if they want to give out a €1m jackpot and make €1m on top of that.
At the current stage we are now 40 weeks into it and expecting at least one more winner, after which the national lottery will have made a profit of €5m (but will be expecting another winner of €1m).

So Monday millions can't rollover because the jackpot massively outweights the number of people playing. The main lotto rolls over because the money on offer is a reflection of the number of players - more players == more money.

todolist

Seamus,great work on analyzing the Monday millions game.Now I understand why there have been so few winners.Thanks for an excellent post.

Jesus Wept

seamus wrote: »

Depends on the numbers who play tbh.

The odds of winning an individual Monday millions draw are about 1 in 3.2 million.

So the odds of an individual winning over 41 draws are 41 in 3.2 million or about 1 in 78,000.

Pretty certain this isn't correct.

caseyann

I remember one of my professors doing the odds on winning the jackpot in the lotto.They were astronomical.Basically he said that you had better chance of dying
I only play lotto once in blue moon my odds of winning i therefore play them.:p

I used to buy all cash and i won so many times on them,since recession kicked in i have not won a penny on them.That says something.They arent putting as many out with winners on them as they did.

wolfpawnat

Am I the only one that notices that when it is won, it is usually in a well off area. Not a rick area but well off. Perfect example. Recently in Donnybrook in D4!!!!

They probably would not like to have us plebs moving into their well off areas!

caseyann

wolfpawnat wrote: »

Am I the only one that notices that when it is won, it is usually in a well off area. Not a rick area but well off. Perfect example. Recently in Donnybrook in D4!!!!

They probably would not like to have us plebs moving into their well off areas!

I personally know three families who won in the 3.8 million regions and not well off.Then that one man who had six kids unemployed from Ballymun or the flats who won.
I wonder if you did a thread on it and a poll,see how many people actually know people who won big amounts on the lotto and do a percentage when answered.

wolfpawnat

caseyann wrote: »

I personally know three families who won in the 3.8 million regions and not well off.Then that one man who had six kids unemployed from Ballymun or the flats who won.
I wonder if you did a thread on it and a poll,see how many people actually know people who won big amounts on the lotto and do a percentage when answered.

That must have sickened the Lottery lot. They would prefer to keep people like that in slum conditions!!!

caseyann

wolfpawnat wrote: »

That must have sickened the Lottery lot. They would prefer to keep people like that in slum conditions!!!

Have a look at this site.They give you the odds on winning in each scratch card.

http://lotto.ie/en/Games1/Scratchcards/All-Cash-Gold1/
One of a family of three, All Cash Gold offers great play value and great prizes and all for only €2!

* Match 3 from 8 amounts to win

* Tickets priced at €2

* Cash prizes from €4 to €10,000

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* Win odds of 1: 5.7


All Cash goes Platinum - instantly win up to €50,000! Whats more, your chances are even better with 3 ways to win!


* Game 1: Match 3 Amounts - Win that Amount

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Match 2 Amounts and a Money Bag symbol - Double that Amount

* Game 3: Reveal 3, 4, 5 or 6 Platinum Bars to win up to €50,000


* Average 1 in 3 wins cash How much cash though lol :rolleyes:

* Cash Prizes from €5 to €50,000


http://indigo.ie/~gerryq/Lotodds/lotodds.htm

seamus

The-Rigger wrote: »

Pretty certain this isn't correct.

Didn't sound right to me either, but calculations please
The idea that the numbers change every draw sounds like it should add extra complexity to the calculation. But I don't think it does. If I play the lotto once a week for 8 million weeks, the odds say that I should probably win once.

caseyann

seamus wrote: »

Didn't sound right to me either, but calculations please
The idea that the numbers change every draw sounds like it should add extra complexity to the calculation. But I don't think it does. If I play the lotto once a week for 8 million weeks, the odds say that I should probably win once.

Check the link in bottom of my above post,has odds counter for lotto.


Most Winning Lotto Numbers
The six most frequently occurring numbers in the Main Irish Lotto Draw in order of frequency:
13 39 36 2 3 44
Least Popular Balls
The six least frequently occurring numbers in the Main Lotto Draw are:
41 34 14 16 25 43

My question would be why

seamus

caseyann wrote: »

My question would be why

Standard randomness. I wouldn't expect all balls to have come out exactly the same amount of times.

You'd have to look at the exact number of times each ball has appeared and then compare that against the expected average and the standard deviation. Then you can look at the outliers and compare their frequency against the odds of them having appeared so often/rarely and decide if it's a practical impossibility.

Fun....if you like that sort of thing.