The lotterys fixed?

km991148

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/71548748#Comment_71548748

lol - you think this government are organised enough to fix a lotto to be able to evenly distribute ticket sales to increase profit?

Why wouldn't they just do some brown envelope deals with builder or the drinks industry or fiddle expenses etc like they normally do.

The lottery is a tax on people that don't understand probability (or just harmless fun) - not a conspiracy

Sam Russell

Well, whether the Lotto is fixed or not, there are very few winners of anything significant.

In the last draw (8th Jan 2022) the highest prize of all three draws was €33,000 - with no winners of the possible €19 million, since Adam was a lad.

Even those that understand statistics cannot understand how the run of no winners of the top prize can go on so long.

eddie73

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118445254#Comment_118445254

The thing is, you still can't prove it, despite the improbability of the lotto not being won for so long. Amazing statistic.

Car99

The Ontario teachers are over the moon.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118458862#Comment_118458862

I am not trying to prove it is fixed, and I doubt that it can be fixed. All that can be influenced, as far as I can tell, is the Quickpick system, where the same numbers are given to many, and even that cannot decide a winner, just change the odds. It appears strange to me that so few big prizes are being won in all draw categories.

When they started the Lotto with scratch cards and Spin the Wheel, they had no winner of the top prize for an age - way beyond chance. Then they had the first and second winner the same night. So it does happen.

eddie73

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118460133#Comment_118460133

Yah agreed.

ohnonotgmail

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118460133#Comment_118460133

No run of games is likely to match the statistical probabilities. Tossing 7 heads in a row isn't way beyond chance. it is as likely as any other outcome.

wench

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118445254#Comment_118445254

It's not that complicated, there are a huge number of possible combinations, and only a fraction get played each week.

They've stacked the odds against it being won simply by adding more balls and increasing the pool of unplayed combos.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118539929#Comment_118539929

The point I am making is that the actual draw should be impossible to fix - after all it is overseen by PCW - if that means anything in practice.

However, since many (probably most) participants go with the quick pick, that is an area that could be 'adjusted' to reduce the odds of someone/anyone winning. All it needs is to remove, say 6 numbers, from the numbers available for quick pick players to get selected. Say this week, numbers 1 to 6 are not open for selection by quick pickers, then if any of those numbers are selected there is next to no chance of a winner this week. Now if a different six numbers are withdrawn from selection, it increases the odds of no winner - way beyond normal chance.

I am not saying this is what is going on - just it is a possible explanation.

robinph

Wouldn't surprise me if the random number generator for the quick picks is designed not to ever give 1,2,3,4,5,6 as the selected numbers, just to prevent the shop selling the ticket getting grief about it therfore being broken. So possible that some number sequences can't be bought, and if they could then someone would have posted about it on social media by now with a picture of the ticket to "prove" it's fixed.

wench

Why would they add easily discoverable code that would fix the quick pick, when simple probability will do the job for them?

ohnonotgmail

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118540167#Comment_118540167

well it would certainly surprise me as I get those numbers in quick picks regularly

robinph

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118540299#Comment_118540299

No, I mean the full sequence of them on one ticket, not the individual numbers.

robinph

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118540291#Comment_118540291

Computer random number generation is known to not be random already, just nearly random such that you'd not notice.

I belive Spotify had to fix their randomiser for the playing of tracks as people didn't believe it was random when they had the same track played multiple times in a row.

blackbox

If the lotto was fixed, how many people do you think would have to be in on it?

Do you really think they would all be able to keep their mouths shut?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118540312#Comment_118540312

https://www.thesun.ie/news/6231307/super-rare-lottery-draw-south-africa/

5 through 10 came out in Sth Africa there about a year ago.

robinph

Exactly. People are stupid and don't believe random numbers can appear to make a pattern. Exactly the same chances of those numbers coming out in that order as any other sequence, and there is nothing super rare about it as the article claims.

Depending on where the random number generator code for quick picks was taken from there is a good chance that whoever wrote it just set it up to not spit out any patterns like 1,2,3,4,5,6 for example. With the number of tickets sold around the world in various lotteries each week I'd have thought there would be more stories of the supposedly random tickets having sequences like that.

People thinking they are being clever in deliberately picking those numbers though is funny. I remember early on with the UK lottery and there was some details about people's tendancy to pick certain numbers. If you want a solo jackpot win then don't pick too many numbers below 31,and the absolute worst numbers to pick were 1,2,3,4,5,6 because so many people picked them thinking nobody else would.

terrytrap

For me, playing the lottery is really a great success. In fact, you buy a ticket and then hope for good luck. If you play at best odds today, then you can analyze the commands and make your own predictions. In such a situation, you have more control over the process.