The lotterys fixed?

MASTER...of the bra

good logs... wrote: »

the only way it could be fixed is the quick pick.. the same quick pick numbers been givein out all round the country....:eek:

Na, there's been quite a few "1 winner" in the past with a quick pick.

harry21

Firstly, most of the stats presented here regards winning are incorrent. Each draw is independent of the next so your odds of winning are always the same. If you play the lotto a million times, your chances of winning never increase. However if you look at the winning numbers and take into account the odds of the same combination winning again I can't see why this would not increase you odds of winning. But the problem is you can't rule out all of the numbers from the winning combination, because some of these may well form part of a new winnign combination. Oh what a pickle!

Regards the odd of winning. A winning conbination of numbers, irrelavant of their order has the following odds of occurence:
(45*44*43*42*41*41) / (6*5*4*3*2*1). One in 8.14 million.

At €1.50 a line thats 12.2 million. So if the jackpot is over 12.2 million and you fancy a bit of a gamble it might pay off unless you end up sharing the jackpot.:mad:

caseyann

harry21 wrote: »

Firstly, most of the stats presented here regards winning are incorrent. Each draw is independent of the next so your odds of winning are always the same. If you play the lotto a million times, your chances of winning never increase. However if you look at the winning numbers and take into account the odds of the same combination winning again I can't see why this would not increase you odds of winning. But the problem is you can't rule out all of the numbers from the winning combination, because some of these may well form part of a new winnign combination. Oh what a pickle!

Regards the odd of winning. A winning conbination of numbers, irrelavant of their order has the following odds of occurence:
(45*44*43*42*41*41) / (6*5*4*3*2*1). One in 8.14 million.

At €1.50 a line thats 12.2 million. So if the jackpot is over 12.2 million and you fancy a bit of a gamble it might pay off unless you end up sharing the jackpot.:mad:

14 million between two people is not shabby at all.
You would have a problem with sharing 12.2 million between 10 people? Or even twenty? :eek:

crazym02

I would not like to think this is the case, if it is fixed, pass them my numbers!

Lavattack

A friend of mine in Cork won the lotto the same weekend that he lost his job and on the Saturday night his best friend was killed. He checked his ticket on Sunday morning just before hearing about his friend. I know he knows no-one at the headquarters so id doubt its fixed. And a family in my hometown also won the lotto a few years back so really doubt its fixed. Would think your friend is just messing with ya OP

caseyann

What you make if the tesco agents being allowed to collect 500 grand?
Isnt there a rule or something they cant claim the money as a company who is a lotto agent?

david75

it wouldnt be about fixing it for specific people, it's about making sure the sales are up and also making sure the wins are dispersed or placed in areas where ticket sales are down. it's all about profit. The national lottery is a government run enterprise dont forget. ye get me?

Look at the french lotto ticket scandal a few posts up for more on this.

sh1tstirrer

Lavattack wrote: »

A friend of mine in Cork won the lotto the same weekend that he lost his job and on the Saturday night his best friend was killed. He checked his ticket on Sunday morning just before hearing about his friend. I know he knows no-one at the headquarters so id doubt its fixed. And a family in my hometown also won the lotto a few years back so really doubt its fixed. Would think your friend is just messing with ya OP

How does that prove that it isn't fixed? You don't understand how it could be fixed, they roll over the jackpot until they want it to be won. Anyone can win, you don't have to know someone from the headquarters to be a winner.

Monty Burnz

sh1tstirrer wrote: »

How does that prove that it isn't fixed? You don't understand how it could be fixed, they roll over the jackpot until they want it to be won. Anyone can win, you don't have to know someone from the headquarters to be a winner.

Do you expect that there should be no rollovers? That it should be won as regular as clockwork? Now, that would be very odd...

sh1tstirrer

Monty Burnz wrote: »

Do you expect that there should be no rollovers? That it should be won as regular as clockwork? Now, that would be very odd...

It would be very odd indeed. I never said it should be won like clockwork every week.

aphex™

They fixed it by having astronomical numbers so the chances of a win are very low. To get a win you need to sell a shed load of tickets in a 'lottery mania' i.e. attract loads of people who never buy a ticket when the jackpot is huge. A bank holiday is a bonus which generates more sales too.

It's annoying for regular ticket buyers. I don't like it, but it's not untoward per se.

EDIT: I did know of somebody who swears they were told "Don't buy a ticket, it's not going to be won in your town next weekend." supposedly by an "employee" of the company, though.

Patrick2010

caseyann wrote: »

14 million between two people is not shabby at all.
You would have a problem with sharing 12.2 million between 10 people? Or even twenty? :eek:

The point the previous poster was making is that it would cost 12.2 million to cover every possible combination of winning numbers so obviously it would only be worthwhile if the jackpot reached more than 12.2 and no one else won. Obviously theres no point in spending 12.2 million to win 7 million for example.

harry21

Patrick2010 wrote: »

The point the previous poster was making is that it would cost 12.2 million to cover every possible combination of winning numbers so obviously it would only be worthwhile if the jackpot reached more than 12.2 and no one else won. Obviously theres no point in spending 12.2 million to win 7 million for example.

Exactly!:P thanks Pat

fontanalis

What is the cut off time for the draw?
Wouldn't the lotto man have to know what combination of numbers haven't been picked and then between the cut off time and the draw do something to the balls that weren't picked?

MASTER...of the bra

fontanalis wrote: »

What is the cut off time for the draw?
Wouldn't the lotto man have to know what combination of numbers haven't been picked and then between the cut off time and the draw do something to the balls that weren't picked?

19.45 for Irish lotto. And the draw is at 19.57.

19.30 for Euromillions.

aphex™

All-or-Nothing was won tonight. Somebody got no numbers, and collect 500k.

Is that fixed?

Monty Burnz

aphex™ wrote: »

All-or-Nothing was won tonight. Somebody got no numbers, and collect 500k.

Is that fixed?

Probably not.

Carra23

david75 wrote: »

it wouldnt be about fixing it for specific people, it's about making sure the sales are up and also making sure the wins are dispersed or placed in areas where ticket sales are down. it's all about profit. The national lottery is a government run enterprise dont forget. ye get me?

Look at the french lotto ticket scandal a few posts up for more on this.

Well put , it's funny how some people can take a statement and take it so literally or misunderstand the meaning.

geetar

ok, ill just like to add that they dont need to fix the lottery. the odds are incredibley in favour of the national lottery. why would they need to fix it? it makes no sense.

sh1tstirrer

fontanalis wrote: »

What is the cut off time for the draw?
Wouldn't the lotto man have to know what combination of numbers haven't been picked and then between the cut off time and the draw do something to the balls that weren't picked?

The lotto man has all the numbers on a computer so it would be very easy to know which combinations have not been used.

An Ri rua

Apologies Mods for reviving an old thread,

but I was linking to an old post here #119 and noticed that the linking url that I'd supplied in post #119 (to the French scratchcard scandal) was incorrect.

Please leave this post here ? For anyone who wants to assess lottery 'variables'. I think this is highly relevant material to reflect on.

http://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/french-lottery-in-the-dock-over-players-fraud-claims-91058.html SUING.

SETTLED > http://egamingpulse.com/archives/1132-French-lotto-loser-wins-315,000-to-halt-lawsuit.html

Plus : http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2025069/Joan-Ginther-Maths-professor-hits-multi-million-scratchcard-lottery-jackpot-4-times.html

Obre les ojos

An Ri rua

Here's a Canadian example. It feels all wrong, no matter how fluky it is ....

http://youtu.be/kvPbz9wyycA

http://www.herald.ie/news/could-an-rte-star-have-scooped-lottos-16m-donnybrook-bonanza-2393557.html Could an RTE star have scooped Lotto’s €16m Donnybrook bonanza?

A locality near us (in Offaly) had a fundraiser a few years ago where a local businessman (quad dealer) ..donated two farm quads....... HE won them back.....

Sweet Jehovah. No more donations to that community development group....

al28283

My mate told me there's a lot of anecdotal evidence being brought up in this thread

An Ri rua

al28283 wrote: »

My mate told me there's a lot of anecdotal evidence being brought up in this thread

What do you mean? As against hard, statistical evidence? its a conspiracy theories forum!

Explain?

al28283

An Ri rua wrote: »

What do you mean? As against hard, statistical evidence? its a conspiracy theories forum!

Explain?

most of the thread is "my mate told me" or the lottery "always" rolls over every bank holiday or christmas.

frozenfrozen

al28283 wrote: »

most of the thread is "my mate told me" or the lottery "always" rolls over every bank holiday or christmas.

Sorry my friend doesn't understand your post but his old neighbour tried to explain it but got abducted by lizard people. Can you help?

An Ri rua

al28283 wrote: »

My mate told me there's a lot of anecdotal evidence being brought up in this thread

My recent post #142 is far from anecdotal. 100% worrying facts. So your 'most of' sort of holds water but the thread title would seem far more plausible than your limited input would give credit to....

An Ri rua

frozenfrozen wrote: »

Sorry my friend doesn't understand your post but his old neighbour tried to explain it but got abducted by lizard people. Can you help?

Yes, I can help. I charge €80 an hour to counsel deluded people. Get 'him' to Pm me

Economics101

I See Bernard Durkan, TD is concerned about the long-running top Lotto prize of €19m mot being one. He wants the No of balls reduced from 49 to improve the odds.

Cue headline "TD talks Balls"

zg3409

Firstly I think in general the Irish lotto is not fixed per say. However in other countries there have been scams and fiddles.

In general the lotto is designed to give away big cash prizes the odd time, and lots of small prizes to keep the regulars coming back.

In terms if scratch cards it's generally a fact that the numbers are not random. They are skewed to produce lots of small prizes and very few big prizes. Not just statistics, but skewed in a way to keep you buying more.

In the case of 3 stars for the TV show, they can give away as many 3 stars as they like, there is a fixed number of places on the TV show, and lots of people getting 3 stars means lots of people watch in the hope they are next. So they make sure lots of people get 3 stars as it costs nothing more It's typically prerecorded earlier on the day, me having known people on the show.

In terms batter of scratch cards match 3 amounts to win, you get a very high proportion of 2 matches high amounts, no win, this is designed to give you hope, 10,000 another 10,000 a 5,000 another 5,000 but in the end didly squat, this costs them nothing, but makes the scratching exciting. It's standard practice. They make sure it happens nearly every time.

In terms of general lotto the rules and amounts are designed to give a profit, so the amount they add and the various prizes are designed to on average never lose more money and keep the money rolling in.

I don't recommend playing lotto as it's a mugs game, but if you do it helps your odds if you don't pick common numbers, not that they are more likely to come up, but when they do you are more likely to share with lots of others so get less. Pick numbers above 31, pick numbers others may not, such as nearby numbers etc. A quick pick is random (I assume) but you should be ruling out low numbers as others pick them, so quick pick is not ideal. The same numbers each week dont change your chance of winning, but higher numbers reduce your chance of sharing jackpot due to others non randomness by picking birth dates etc.

In terms of the OP I think they fell for a wind up, but theoretically it would be possible, but as suggested weighing or sizing balls so certain numbers are far more likely would be a better method. If you knew in advance each week certain numbers were far more likely then you could pre pick them, and over time near guarantee to win.

In the real world an Irish guy realized certain draws were run at a statistical loss (to encourage people to play) and so if you bought uncommon numbers, lots of them he was nearly guaranteed to win and make a profit. They changed the rules to stop this. Basically some draws ran at a loss, being subsidised by money rolling up from previous draws.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/how-a-secret-syndicate-managed-to-buy-the-lotto-35981173.html

The human factor for scratch cards, ever spends your scratch card winning on another scratch card and end up with nothing?

Here it says, as I have said, scratch cards are not designed to be random, for human factors and to control odds closely

Quote from this one

Our results suggest that certain scratch card games may be designed to include more pairs of jackpot symbols (i.e., more near-miss outcomes)

https://jgi.camh.net/index.php/jgi/article/view/3977/4164

so even without fraud, the rules are designed to give near high wins, and low wins, all to keep you buying more. Gambling apps take this to a whole new level. Here are tonight's lotto numbers, a friend told me 42, 35, 65 and the bonus ball -2

Slot machines and casino games are designed to give regular near wins and small wins. The one arm bandits are designed to make a big noise when paying out so others nearby hear you winning. Some are designed to give say 85% back, meaning you on average lose, but you get lots of smaller wins, and lots of near wins.