Good time to buy a gaf ?

sonic85

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

I dont know how it will be possible to move on with this corrupt ruling class we have allowed to control the country

got it in one. its never gonna change. if were ever fortunate enough to get some bit of stability it wont be worth a sh*te because the same twats will still be running the country

th3 s1aught3r

catbear wrote: »

I've read it that the society that puts its prosperity before its principles loses both.
I really hope that this kills the gombeen man for a generation, if not it's all been in vain.

It seems we live in an economy, not a society. In the boom years most of us were scrambling around trying to make as much money as possible, now we must face the consequences of this. This is what living in an economy is all about, you are a consumer first, person second.

stovelid

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfZ5m-oGmtQ

gurramok

Its a good time to buy a gaff when what you buy is value for money to you. That of course is discretionary due to fools in the past not knowing the value of money.

Tigger

Yo can buy a four bed in south Sligo north Mayo for 90'and they'll be cheaper soon. But that same house would have gone up as a pair of semi d fr less than 80 so they cost 40 each plus the price of the land say 5 grand so there will be plenty left to fall

th3 s1aught3r

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

Well according to our Patron Saint of Finance, St. Brian Lenihan, the economy has turned the corner.

So lads and lassies, let's get out there and buy some gaffs!

It's never a good or a bad time to buy...it's always a good time to buy.

I give you a quote from a man with impeccable credentials, Mr Frank Fahey:

'This is a great time for first-time buyers to buy. It is now a buyers' market. There is unbelievable value out there at the moment [...] "The banks are giving loans at the moment. But be ready to make your move."

So what are you boardsies waiting for?

Down to the bank on Tuesday the lot of you and do your patriotic duty, pony up some cash and buy a house or two.

You know it makes sense!

That sounds like the idea that the CIF was floating a couple years ago, that the State should buy up all the empty houses to 'stimulate' the property market. Tom Parlon is boss of CIF, if memory serves he was a PD in government at some stage :cool:

Ice cubed

gurramok wrote: »

Won't happen as the system still supports owning a gaff with huge financial supports still in place for homeowners. Coupled with massive financial supports for owning over renting when things go wrong(like job loss), property ownership is numero uno in this country for a reason.

And rent ain't dead money either. the apt I am in lost maybe 100k in value over a year and yet I rent for 12k a yr, I just made a huge saving by not buying it.

I think the glut of empty houses could lend its self to the renting model. In the past not enough houses were dedicated to the rental market, I have been renting places in Dublin that the owner just decided to sell. Out you get sunshine.:(. I think the whole rental system would have to be over hauled though. Having rented in the Netherlands, for example, properties there have to be registered as rental properties, thus meaning they cannot be sold from under the renter, I think they have to be vacant to have them re registered as private residence. Rent can only be increased by a certain percentage per annum, meaning it is more beneficial to long term renting, people who have been renting for 15 years in the same place have excellent rates.

Shenshen

De Dannan wrote: »

anyone out there planning to buy a house in the near future ?

Personally I think the market will fall furthur becasue

1. No confidence out there in property, or anything else
2. Four years of horrendous budgets to look forward
3. What bank will want to offer mortgages when they face years of defaults on the ones they have ?
4. Plus possible fire sales of property from above defaults

Having said that there are probably many of you who have good jobs, good savings and therefore good mortgage candidates, who held off in the boom and are licking your lips at some of the properties within your grasp these days

We bought ours almost a year ago now.
Yes, I know, prices are still falling, so the house is probably worth less now than what we paid for it, but since we're not planning on selling, we're not really bothered by that.
For us the main reason to go for it was simply that we didn't think the banks would continue giving mortgages, and we had a hard enough time getting ours (we had 15% deposit, both of us are in permanent, fairly secure positions with good income, no debts, and proven record of being able to meet the repayments). We know that by now, we would have no chance in hell of getting that mortgage. So to us it's really not important that prices are still falling... we've got a house we love, and if we hadn't we wouldn't be able to raise the money to buy one now anyway.

th3 s1aught3r

Shenshen wrote: »

We bought ours almost a year ago now.
Yes, I know, prices are still falling, so the house is probably worth less now than what we paid for it, but since we're not planning on selling, we're not really bothered by that.
For us the main reason to go for it was simply that we didn't think the banks would continue giving mortgages, and we had a hard enough time getting ours (we had 15% deposit, both of us are in permanent, fairly secure positions with good income, no debts, and proven record of being able to meet the repayments). We know that by now, we would have no chance in hell of getting that mortgage. So to us it's really not important that prices are still falling... we've got a house we love, and if we hadn't we wouldn't be able to raise the money to buy one now anyway.

I wonder how strict banks are now with regard to giving new mortgages ?

Shenshen

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

I wonder how strict banks are now with regard to giving new mortgages ?

From what I hear, they're getting worse by the day.
We've been chatting to our mortgage broker the other day, he said that since he secured our mortgage nearly a year ago, he had a total of 2 mortgages agreed by the banks, one had 30% and the other 40% deposit, and he still had to fight tooth and nail for months to get them.

I know all the banks claim they're trying their best to give out loans and mortgages, but I don't believe a word of it.

Keptic

De Dannan wrote: »

anyone out there planning to buy a house in the near future ?

If you need a house, want it and can afford it, you buy a house - as simple as that.

Tigger

Or wait and save thirty or sixty thousand euro

enfant terrible

What advantages does this gaf have over say.. a train. Which I could also afford.

th3 s1aught3r

Shenshen wrote: »

From what I hear, they're getting worse by the day.
We've been chatting to our mortgage broker the other day, he said that since he secured our mortgage nearly a year ago, he had a total of 2 mortgages agreed by the banks, one had 30% and the other 40% deposit, and he still had to fight tooth and nail for months to get them.

I know all the banks claim they're trying their best to give out loans and mortgages, but I don't believe a word of it.

Although it will be much harder for people to get loans, it can only be a good thing that banks have to properly gage peoples ability to repay loans and that we no longer hve this 'cheap money' mentality

Shenshen

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

Although it will be much harder for people to get loans, it can only be a good thing that banks have to properly gage peoples ability to repay loans and that we no longer hve this 'cheap money' mentality

I definitely do agree on that, but I also think that a balance needs to be found between throwing money out of the window for people to pick it up, and not giving anybody anything.
At then end of the day, the way banks make money is by lending it, and we can't as a nation keep throwing tax money at them to balance their books.

gurramok

Shenshen wrote: »

From what I hear, they're getting worse by the day.
We've been chatting to our mortgage broker the other day, he said that since he secured our mortgage nearly a year ago, he had a total of 2 mortgages agreed by the banks, one had 30% and the other 40% deposit, and he still had to fight tooth and nail for months to get them.

I know all the banks claim they're trying their best to give out loans and mortgages, but I don't believe a word of it.

Did those applicants have rock solid steady employment though and was the amount to be borrowed really an issue? (like a bank will give you less of a loan than what you had asked for)

Shenshen

gurramok wrote: »

Did those applicants have rock solid steady employment though and was the amount to be borrowed really an issue? (like a bank will give you less of a loan than what you had asked for)

I don't know that, to be honest.
I know for us, the main issue was not so much our jobs, but more our deposit.
We were told by several banks that they couldn't give us a mortgage as "we didn't have a history of saving". We had both of us bought shares of the companies employing us in place of a savings account, and kept buying on a regular basis for years, rather than putting the money in a savings account.

th3 s1aught3r

Shenshen wrote: »

From what I hear, they're getting worse by the day.
We've been chatting to our mortgage broker the other day, he said that since he secured our mortgage nearly a year ago, he had a total of 2 mortgages agreed by the banks, one had 30% and the other 40% deposit, and he still had to fight tooth and nail for months to get them.

I know all the banks claim they're trying their best to give out loans and mortgages, but I don't believe a word of it.

What loan to salary ratio did you get ?

Shenshen

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

What loan to salary ratio did you get ?

4x our annual income.

LookingFor

I think there's a ways to go yet.

I have grown a distinct dislike for newspapers who draft in people with a vested interest in the property market to continually tell us that the market has bottomed out. They've been writing the same 'advice' for months.

Bulmers

just went to view a launch of new houses new me for the crack, 2 show houses built, one fully furnished..30 houses in phase 1, 25 sold since launch yday, all bought off the plans so looks like a it's good time to some people.

Good time to buy a new house in a new estate as was talking to the auctioneer and there was plans for those ridiculous 4 storey houses and apts that went into every estate in the boom,they're scrapping those and going to try to get permission for more semi -ds and detached..

although you'd still have to wonder how much lower this can all go..

gurramok

Bulmers wrote: »

just went to view a launch of new houses new me for the crack, 2 show houses built, one fully furnished..30 houses in phase 1, 25 sold since launch yday, all bought off the plans so looks like a it's good time to some people.

Good time to buy a new house in a new estate as was talking to the auctioneer and there was plans for those ridiculous 4 storey houses and apts that went into every estate in the boom,they're scrapping those and going to try to get permission for more semi -ds and detached..

although you'd still have to wonder how much lower this can all go..

I know this is AH, I can see your sense of humour right there alright!

Keptic

Tigger wrote: »

Or wait and save thirty or sixty thousand euro

Yeah, if the meaning of one's life is to do nothing but look for bargains, then yes.

colc1

De Dannan wrote: »

anyone out there planning to buy a house in the near future ?

Personally I think the market will fall furthur becasue

1. No confidence out there in property, or anything else
2. Four years of horrendous budgets to look forward
3. What bank will want to offer mortgages when they face years of defaults on the ones they have ?
4. Plus possible fire sales of property from above defaults

Having said that there are probably many of you who have good jobs, good savings and therefore good mortgage candidates, who held off in the boom and are licking your lips at some of the properties within your grasp these days

I reckon it would be a huge gamble to buy anytime soon sure even if the market stabilises no danger of it rising to anywhere near previous levels I'm only surprised they havent fallen quicker its just a matter of time though.

Look abroad if you're looking for an investment somewhere with a stable environment for investing you couldnt have any confidence in this country having the bravery to make the cuts we need to do everybody should take some kind of cut at least and let a few of the badly managed banks and other businesses fail naturally without artificially keeping them going like the way the property market is being kept artificially high before a property tax of some sort is brought in....

colc1

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

Although it will be much harder for people to get loans, it can only be a good thing that banks have to properly gage peoples ability to repay loans and that we no longer hve this 'cheap money' mentality

+1

Wertz

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Does it ever to make sense to buy a "starter" anything for a six figure sum?

I think a house/home is the exception...the houses I'm talking about in my original post were up on 170-180K at the height of the madness and have now effectively halfed in value (90-100K) with maybe a little further to fall...they may hit 85K or thereabouts, who knows...personally I think that represents good value.

The term "starter" is the one the "industry" uses...realistically speaking a couple with one or two kids could spend most of their lives in such a 3 bed terraced house...at around 3.5X the av ind wage, I can't see how much cheaper you can expect (this is not a prediction about the bottom of the market).

Wertz

colc1 wrote: »

Look abroad if you're looking for an investment somewhere with a stable environment for investing .

:rolleyes:

What if you're just looking for somewhere to live?
It's this investment bullsh*t that has us at the place we're at now and that has banks where they are with the need for propping up and that has the government flying kites about property tax...

AgileMyth

knird evol wrote: »

Our economy will be booming again in a few months time. Once we get over this blip the housing market will soar like a rocket.

Thanks but I prefer to take my economic advice from a man with real knowledge:

"This year, I invested in pumpkins. They've been going up the whole month of October and I got a feeling they're going to peak right around January. Then, bang! That's when I'll cash in".
Homer Simpson

th3 s1aught3r

Wertz wrote: »

:rolleyes:

What if you're just looking for somewhere to live?
It's this investment bullsh*t that has us at the place we're at now and that has banks where they are with the need for propping up and that has the government flying kites about property tax...

+1

If they are going to introduce property tax I really hope they start with investment properties and take it easy on those who just bought a house to live in

Tigger

Keptic wrote: »

Yeah, if the meaning of one's life is to do nothing but look for bargains, then yes.

what?

avoiding crushing debt is a little more than bargin hunting

CorkMan

Wait for Brian Cowens to be torched out, you should get that one on the cheap then.

Or if Mary Hearney gets a massive banger while on the jacks, you can get that one on the cheap as well. Even be'd able to use the bathroom as a museum.

You will never be able to get Brian Lenihans though, cos he is technically paying it off for the next 300 years (without Interest added on) so when he kicks the bucket it will go straight back to the state.

th3 s1aught3r

Keptic wrote: »

Yeah, if the meaning of one's life is to do nothing but look for bargains, then yes.

You sound like money is no object, but to most people buying a house is a huge commitment.

gurramok

After all its the biggest financial transaction of your life and the amount of muppets who never researched their buying in recent years is staggering. :eek:

jackiebaron

knird evol wrote: »

Our economy will be booming again in a few months time. Once we get over this blip the housing market will soar like a rocket.

:pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac:

jackiebaron

Wertz wrote: »

Depends both on the house itself and the area it's in.

There are starter/3 beds near me for a good bit less than €110K...area mightn't be great but it's a house

Lots of things are probably never going to happen...the return of property to it's 2006/07 value is certainly one...

Where is that then?

Cat Melodeon

De Dannan wrote: »

anyone out there planning to buy a house in the near future ?

...

Having said that there are probably many of you who have good jobs, good savings and therefore good mortgage candidates, who held off in the boom and are licking your lips at some of the properties within your grasp these days

We're not exactly licking our lips but we are considering buying. We were working outside Ireland and came back in 2006 - were shocked at house prices then, could not believe 'normal' people were still buying at those prices. I don't now what sort of contagious madness infected the country in the late 90s and early 2000s, but I'm glad I wasn't here for it.

Things are beginning to feel a bit more normal now. We're glad we sat on our deposit and waited - a friend of mine had to sell up to follow her job and lost nearly 75k selling her 4-bed detached house, is now in a 3-bed semi for the same crippling mortgage repayments. 75K! Unless you're properly loaded or delusional, that is a serious chunk of money for middle income families.

We're gonna wait and see what 2011 brings. If it's more cuts and redundancies, we don't want to be stuck on an estate in an area with no jobs. The biggest benefit to renting in times like these is the ability to get the hell out and follow the jobs.

Firetrap

I'd say hang tight until things settle down. Who knows what extra taxes/levies the government is going to introduce in future budgets or what job/pay cuts are still to come. The factors which fuelled the insane property prices aren't there any more - banks throwing money at anyone who wanted it, good wages, availability of jobs, low interest rates.. I'm sure a lot of people who are up to their eyes in mortgage repayments they may or may not be able to meet these days would love to be in the OP's shoes right now.

Sea Sharp

We're probably looking at 5 years time minimum before property prices in this country hit the floor.
I'm predicting that the average Dublin city apartment will go as low as 50k.
The peak prices were based on under supply and loose bank lending.
Now we have over supply and strict bank lending. Prices are going nowhere but down until the over supply is sorted out, and the only way prices will go back to peak levels will be through inflation in the Euro zone. I can't envision the banks returning to dangerous lending any time in the next two decades.

Wertz

jackiebaron wrote: »

Where is that then?

Dundalk.

fontanalis

Sea Sharp wrote: »

We're probably looking at 5 years time minimum before property prices in this country hit the floor.
I'm predicting that the average Dublin city apartment will go as low as 50k.
The peak prices were based on under supply and loose bank lending.
Now we have over supply and strict bank lending. Prices are going nowhere but down until the over supply is sorted out, and the only way prices will go back to peak levels will be through inflation in the Euro zone. I can't envision the banks returning to dangerous lending any time in the next two decades.

Was there really that much under supply? Some of the things you saw liek people queing to buy places now seems like hysteria.

Sea Sharp

fontanalis wrote: »

Was there really that much under supply? Some of the things you saw liek people queing to buy places now seems like hysteria.

Don't forget we had 10,000s of Eastern Europeans immigrating every year. The rate of building pre-peak was accommodating the rise in population.

fontanalis

That would be a big factor, I think a big driving force was the mentality of you can't lose with bricks and mortar/rent is dead money/buy and flip it in a few years and make a fortune.

th3 s1aught3r

Read a book by Mark Shipman recently about capitalist booms and bubbles, fascinating about how these keep happening over and over again but each time everyone says "this time is different" and doesnt expect a crash. I think the last sign for us was when every chancer in the country was a property developer

LookingFor

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

Read a book by Mark Shipman recently about capitalist booms and bubbles, fascinating about how these keep happening over and over again but each time everyone says "this time is different" and doesnt expect a crash. I think the last sign for us was when every chancer in the country was a property developer

There's a story about one of the Kennedys, explaining how he knew when to sell his stock, not long before the big wall street crash in the 20s.

He said he knew when to sell when the shoe-shine boys were giving him stock tips.

gurramok

Sea Sharp wrote: »

Don't forget we had 10,000s of Eastern Europeans immigrating every year. The rate of building pre-peak was accommodating the rise in population.

Yeh and most of the immigrants moved to rent in new estates which in turn were bought by Irish investors where they availed of tax breaks like paying no stamp duty on new dwellings.

FreudianSlippers

To OP: Outside Dublin (including commuter towns) buy now.
In Dublin prices are still pretty high, so it's a bet - whether prices will continue to decrease or will they start going up. My opinion is that prices are levelling out at the moment and may start to increase in Q2 2011.

gurramok

OisinT wrote: »

To OP: Outside Dublin (including commuter towns) buy now.
In Dublin prices are still pretty high, so it's a bet - whether prices will continue to decrease or will they start going up. My opinion is that prices are levelling out at the moment and may start to increase in Q2 2011.

Based on what? We've got 4 harsh annual budgets ahead which is a decrease everyones income and still a high unemployment rate to name just a couple of factors to keep prices down.

FreudianSlippers

gurramok wrote: »

Based on what? We've got 4 harsh annual budgets ahead which is a decrease everyones income and still a high unemployment rate to name just a couple of factors to keep prices down.

Prices are probably going to bottom out by Q1 2011 and growth predictions are looking pretty good for 2011.

Weak sterling is not a positive, but if consumer confidence is up at the end of Q4 2010 then I think we could see growth indicators by early to mid 2011.

Also, the ESRI forecast showed a GDP growth of 2.75% in 2011 and GNP at 2.25%.
They also estimated the budget deficit to fall to 10.5% of GDP and maybe even less depending on the cuts made in the budget forthcoming.

Average house price is below €200,000 in this country. This is artificially low IMO and if prices continue to fall below this then we're in deep shít.

gurramok

OisinT wrote: »

Prices are probably going to bottom out by Q1 2011 and growth predictions are looking pretty good for 2011.

Weak sterling is not a positive, but if consumer confidence is up at the end of Q4 2010 then I think we could see growth indicators by early to mid 2011.

Also, the ESRI forecast showed a GDP growth of 2.75% in 2011 and GNP at 2.25%.
They also estimated the budget deficit to fall to 10.5% of GDP and maybe even less depending on the cuts made in the budget forthcoming.

Average house price is below €200,000 in this country. This is artificially low IMO and if prices continue to fall below this then we're in deep shít.

Are you for real?

Lets see, you base a rise in prices on a small growth in GDP(not GNP) in 2011 AFTER a supposedly harsh budget in DEC 2010 which takes alot of money out of the economy. Can you not see the irony?!

How is 200k too low, based on what? There is a serious oversupply in the vast majority of regions outside Dublin and Dublin itself has an oversupply too. Plus unemployment has not turned the corner no matter what FF say.

FreudianSlippers

gurramok wrote: »

Are you for real?

Lets see, you base a rise in prices on a small growth in GDP(not GNP) in 2011 AFTER a supposedly harsh budget in DEC 2010 which takes alot of money out of the economy. Can you not see the irony?!

How is 200k too low, based on what? There is a serious oversupply in the vast majority of regions outside Dublin and Dublin itself has an oversupply too. Plus unemployment has not turned the corner no matter what FF say.

I disagree, but it will all depend on the budget cuts and consumer confidence at christmas.

Nobody can know for sure, I'm just making an assumption based on the indicators I can see at present. You feel differently, but your opinion is no more or less valid than mine.

We'll just revisit this in Q2 2011 and see who was right