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November 2010 forecast contest

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    #32
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    ( IMT 7 MAX 16 MIN -1.5 RAIN 110 SUN 100 GUST 60kts)


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    #33
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,993 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    ( 6.8c ..... 16.2c ..... -3.2c ..... 108% ..... 93% ..... 83kts)

    Snow on the Dublin/Wicklow Mountains November 21st


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    #34
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,514 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Just a reminder to enter by midnight (entries accepted Tuesday at penalty).


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    #35
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,679 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    ( 7.0 ..... 16 ..... -4.8 ..... 115 ..... 85 ..... 70)


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    #36
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    IMT 1999-2009 daily averages for November, based on 0000hrs to 0000hrs daily mean values from met eireann stations Casement, Claremorris, Shannon Apt, Mullingar, Kilkenny (1999-2007) and Oak Park (2008-2009) to give a sense of what is 'normal' over the country for the month:

    Daily Mean Max:
    133361.jpg


    Daily Mean Min:
    133362.jpg



    Mean daily mean sea level pressure values for November along with mean daily rainfall total for the month:

    133363.jpg





    Data source:
    Ogimet


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    #37
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,514 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Forecasts received to date, for November 2010
    _________________________________________

    Forecaster ......... IMT ..... max ..... min ..... rain ..... sun ..... wind ..... snow
    _______________________________________________________________

    Deep Easterly ..... 8.1 ..... 17.3 ..... -2.1 ..... 070 ..... 090 ..... 61 ..... 17
    pauldry .............. 7.9 ..... 17.1 ..... -2.3 ..... 124 ..... 098 ..... 69 ..... 28
    Strasser ............ 7.8 ..... 16.0 ..... -2.3 ..... 133 ..... 083 ..... 70
    Rebelbrowser ...... 7.7 ..... 17.6 ..... -4.3 ..... 103 ..... 093 ..... 65 ..... 26
    cherryghost ....... 7.5 ..... 16.4 ..... -5.1 ..... 110 ..... 105 ..... 68 ..... 20
    dasa29 .............. 7.3 ..... 18.0 ..... -6.0 ..... 125 ..... 095 ..... 70 ..... 19
    Danno ............... 7.2 ..... 16.6 ..... -5.6 ..... 090 ..... 070 ..... 57
    nilhg ................. 7.2 ..... 16.2 ..... -3.2 ..... 119 ..... 089 ..... 79
    jambofc ............ 7.2 ..... 15.9 ..... -4.2 ..... 120 ..... 143 ..... 72 ..... 25
    Sponge Bob ....... 7.1 ..... 16.1 ..... -3.8 ..... 111 ..... 122 ..... 75
    gothwalk .......... 7.1 ..... 19.2 ..... -4.5 ..... 090 ..... 110 ..... 72 ..... late
    John mac .......... 7.1 ..... 16.3 ..... -5.3 ..... 110 ..... 092 ..... 64 ..... 24
    jd .................... 7.1 ..... 16.8 ..... -4.7 ..... 102 ..... 095 ..... 68 ..... 21
    Jerry Seinfeld ..... 7.0 ..... 16.0 ..... -4.8 ..... 115 ..... 085 ..... 70
    Redsunset ......... 7.0 ..... 16.0 ..... -1.5 ..... 110 ..... 100 ..... 60
    kindredspirit ....... 7.0 ..... 16.0 ..... -5.0 ..... 170 ..... 070 ..... 58

    Con Sensus ........ 7.0 ..... 16.3 ..... -4.6 ..... 110 ..... 096 ..... 69 ..... 18

    Joe Public .......... 6.9 ..... 16.9 ..... -4.9 ..... 139 ..... 099 ..... 79 ...... 9
    Fionagus ........... 6.9 ..... 15.8 ..... -5.1 ..... 072 ..... 126 ..... 70 ..... 15
    hellboy99 .......... 6.8 ..... 17.1 ..... -5.1 ..... 103 ..... 092 ..... 73 ..... 14
    WolfeIRE ........... 6.8 ..... 15.8 ..... -7.5 ..... 135 ..... 100 ..... 57 ..... 19
    DOCARCH .......... 6.8 ..... 16.2 ..... -3.2 ..... 108 ..... 093 ..... 83 ..... 21
    thetonynator ..... 6.8 ..... 16.0 ..... -4.5 ..... 105 ..... 090 ..... 75 ..... 13
    nacho libre ........ 6.7 ..... 17.3 ..... -3.9 ..... 115 ..... 090 ..... 61 ..... 28
    talkabout ......... 6.7 ..... 16.6 ..... -4.0 ..... 092 ..... 102 ..... 71 ..... 19
    homolumo ......... 6.7 ..... 16.8 ..... -7.2 ..... 133 ..... 113 ..... 55
    Su Campu ......... 6.6 ..... 16.1 ..... -4.1 ..... 085 ..... 095 ..... 54
    mickger844post .. 6.3 ..... 15.8 ..... -5.1 ..... 089 ..... 110 ..... 70 ..... 30
    SeaFields .......... 6.2 ..... 17.5 ..... -6.2 ..... 120 ..... 070 ..... 80
    M.T. Cranium ..... 6.0 ..... 17.1 ..... -7.0 ..... 115 ..... 127 ..... 52 ..... 14
    200motels ......... 5.9 ..... 13.9 ..... -2.8 ..... 168 ..... 071 ..... 66
    TheInquisitor ..... 5.0 ..... 13.0 ..... -7.0 ..... 083 ..... 115 ..... 56 ..... 18

    Please note, the first snowfall forecasts were optional and won't count for points, so if you didn't enter, feel free to add a guess and I'll edit it into the table. There was actually a report of snow last night at Ballyhaise, but I imagine that was bogus (freezing fog or something similar). I will have a bonus question on snowfall in December.

    The forecasts in general tilt slightly towards mild and wet (and cloudy) which is no doubt influenced by the obvious start in that direction.


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    #38
    John mac
    Registered Users Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭John mac


    Oak park 17 at 12:00


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    #39
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,679 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    John mac wrote: »
    Oak park 17 at 12:00

    That's beaten 16.6 they got yesterday!


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    #40
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    A lot of max forecats out done at midnight!!:mad:


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    #41
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,782 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    John mac wrote: »
    Oak park 17 at 12:00

    Any chance ME would update the 4th Nov readings for Oak Park?

    They have been slipping a good bit of late especially on long weekends.


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    #42
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Gust competition, 63kts in Malin 21:00 hours so far that is the highest today.


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    #43
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Gust competition, 63kts in Malin 21:00 hours so far that is the highest today.


    Will surely be beaten soon enough . . .


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    #44
    homolumo
    Registered Users Posts: 1,080 ✭✭✭homolumo


    thetonynator wrote: »
    Will surely be beaten soon enough . . .

    if not looks likely to happen Thurs/Fri


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    #45
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    homolumo wrote: »
    if not looks likely to happen Thurs/Fri


    Although it looked on the 9.30 news that it might be tracking fairly far north . . .


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    #46
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,993 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Gust competition, 63kts in Malin 21:00 hours so far that is the highest today.

    According to Met E today, max gust yesterday was at Malin Head at 61kts.


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    #47
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    According to Met E today, max gust yesterday was at Malin Head at 61kts.

    I was quoting data from this page . . Not for me to decide what the judges select as the correct figure in the end.


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    #48
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,514 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I noticed that difference also, but would imagine that we may see something stronger in any case.

    Meanwhile, for the first seven days of November:

    IMT 9.2 C

    rainfall 220% of normal

    sunshine 40% of normal


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    #49
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    I noticed that difference also, but would imagine that we may see something stronger in any case.

    Meanwhile, for the first seven days of November:

    IMT 9.2 C

    rainfall 220% of normal

    sunshine 40% of normal


    :eek:

    :eek:

    :eek:

    :P


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    #50
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    I noticed that difference also, but would imagine that we may see something stronger in any case.

    Meanwhile, for the first seven days of November:

    IMT 9.2 C

    rainfall 220% of normal

    sunshine 40% of normal

    Rainfall 354% of normal at Claremorris and considering that this station is one of the wettest inland synoptic stations, that is quite a substantial figure! :eek:


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    #51
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Claremorris rainfall total for the first 8 days of November has broken the 100mm mark. Now standing at 103.8mm as of midnight last making it the wettest reporting met eireann station so far. Belmullet is a close second with its 93.8mm, while surprisingly, Valentia is only on 81.0mm so far. I am pretty sure it will catch up though soon.


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    #52
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭pauldry


    I have IMT as been 8.6c for first 8 days of November

    And Gust of 61knots at Malin is highest

    Lowest temp of the month nothing useful yet but minus 3 promised for us tonight


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    #53
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭pauldry


    that old 61knot gust in Malin is looking like a gentle breeze now

    Already up to near 40knot gusts here and system not even near land yet

    Think Malin or Belmullet will break the 70knot mark


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    #54
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    pauldry wrote: »
    that old 61knot gust in Malin is looking like a gentle breeze now

    Already up to near 40knot gusts here and system not even near land yet

    Think Malin or Belmullet will break the 70knot mark


    75 on the dot!!! Hopefully at least . . .:P


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    #55
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,514 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Have confirmed these extremes:

    max 17.1 Oak Park 4th

    min -3.8 Casement 10th

    max gust TBA :cool:


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    #56
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Have confirmed these extremes:

    max 17.1 Oak Park 4th

    min -3.8 Casement 10th

    max gust TBA :cool:


    My min was -3.8 Long month ahead :D

    Gusts max reported 63kt later adjusted to 61 Malin on Sunday already beaten by 65kt unadjusted in Mace Head before 10am today.


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    #57
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    My min was -3.8 Long month ahead :D

    Gusts max reported 63kt later adjusted to 61 Malin on Sunday already beaten by 65kt unadjusted in Mace Head before 10am today.


    My max was 17.1c surely thats safe.... or is it?

    Was near last last month so I need the points if we are not blown away here in the wild wesssssssssht


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    #58
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Gust competition look like max 70kt.


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    #59
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,782 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Gust competition look like max 70kt.

    It depends on what ME publish tomorrow;)


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    #60
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Joe Public wrote: »
    It depends on what ME publish tomorrow;)

    Incomplete right now, and a 70kt it is :cool: Could have been bet after midnight.

    http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp


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    #61
    John mac
    Registered Users Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭John mac


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Gust competition look like max 70kt.

    Its not the end of the month yet! :)


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