November 2010 forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Quite a few guesses right on 70 knots, well done (so far). I think it will hold, somehow.

On that fun snowfall contest, I wasn't very specific about what would verify snowfall (if it was for points, it would have been any met.ie reporting station).

I don't think snow has fallen at an official station yet but we did get reports from one or two people of snow as early as the 6th, I believe. But still waiting to declare a winner in terms of official stations and observed snow there.

Hey, while it's quiet on the threads in general, any thoughts about the scoring and format? I will undertake to keep going in 2011 if I can stay out of jail for my illegal forecasting activities etc. :cool:

But as I said before 2010, I'm open to suggestion and direction, now's the time to offer any suggestions for group discussion about how we format and score the contest.

Hellboy99 has graciously offered to help me, starting with the winter forecast contest that I need to BTTT pretty soon (deadline on that is 18th). I may seek some help from him on these monthly contests too, although I don't find the task too burdensome so far (if we get much more than thirty entrants, maybe).

I'm pleasantly surprised at the growth in the contest, has gone from about a dozen regulars to about thirty and for the size of the country is much larger in per capita terms than the UK or USA equivalents, almost as large in absolute terms as the latter.

Anyway, list your thoughts on the subject, and if this fails to generate a discussion, I may post a more specific thread about it.

Deep Easterly

Just a quick update on the IMT for the month so far. Up to the 12th, the current IMT for November is standing at 8.2c, around 0.5c above the 61-90 normal for the period.

Chart showing rainfall totals at each of the IMT stations for November up to the 12th for both this year and last:



Overall, fairly similar totals to this time last year (so far!!!)



A peak back at the synoptic set up this day last year.

HIRLAM analysis chart (18z) for 13th November 2009:




Low pressure complex to the west and south-west of Ireland ensuring a wet day, particularly over the southern half of the country. Maxima this day last year ranged between 9c and 12c overall while mean minima ranged between 1c and 5c across the country.


Data source:
Met Eireann
KNMI

M.T. Cranium

The second full week of November is in the books and has made some significant changes to the figures ...

IMT was only 5.8 C for the week, making the monthly so far 7.5 C

rainfall was 116% cutting into the surplus, now we're at 168% of normal

sunshine was 120% of normal, giving a new average of 80% of normal.

Obviously it won't take much more rain to guarantee a finishing mark above 100% while sunshine will need a few more sunny days to pass that figure.

Snowfall guesses continue to find some verification from reports on the forum but not as yet (as far as I know) from reports from met.ie.

Deep Easterly

November IMT value up to midnight 20th standing at 7.2c, close to or very slightly above the 61-90 normal for the period so far. Unlikely we will see a rise in this value hencewith.

Chart graphing trend so far this month, with November 2009 IMT value plotted in for comparison:





Irish Mean Rainfall (IMR) percentage of 61-90 normal value for the year 2010 up to midnight 20th November so far on 102%; this is the first time this year that the % value has not been below 100%.

IMR station % of normal rainfall breakdown for the year so far:



all stations running close to normal although Casement & Claremorris continue to run very very slightly below. Oak Park is the only station so far this year to have % of normal rainfall values running slightly above normal for much of the period.



A look back at the weather situation on this day in 2006:

UK Fax Analysis for 21st November 2006




A blustery, showery day on the 21st Nov 2006 which tended to ease up towards evening as a weak ridge moved in. In typical November fashion though it became very unsettled over the following few days once again.



All data used above c/o
Met Eireann
UK Met Office.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT is about to fall off a cliff, probably landing around 6.0 or a bit lower.

Meanwhile, rainfall was close to 100% in the third week, cutting into the surplus, now we're at 144% of normal. This might fall a bit further as snow often adds little to precip totals.

Sunshine is now close to normal for the month at about 103% of average. The past week added considerably with about 150% -- I have estimated because I know the figure for Dublin is in need of correction, there was a day during the past seven days when the daily table gave 56 hours of sunshine there. This has survived into the weekly data (if you look at today's ag-met table you'll see what I mean).

pauldry

That 56 Hour day must have been the one that the IMF arrived

DOCARCH

0600 report from Knock Airport : Recent Snow

KNOCK AIRPORT(P) NW 08 RECENT SNOW 1 95 0.1 1019

M.T. Cranium

The IMT sits at 6.5 C after the 24th and if it were to average 2.5 C from today to 30th, the finishing point would be 5.8 C. An average of 2.0 will give a final value of 5.6 C.

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The IMT sits at 6.5c

I have it as 6.6 M.T. or 6.55c to be exact! But yes, will no doubt finish below 6c this month.

Currently IMT November maxima on 9.8c, whilst mean minima on 3.3c - both of which are around 0.3c below average for the month so far.

thetonynator

A disasterous month on the cards for me unless joe b's prediction starts to come true tomorrow. . . I think i'd rather a bad month than for that to happen!

thetonynator

6.14 . . .brrr . . . .

Deep Easterly

IMT down to 5.9c up to midnight last, 0.8c below the 61-90 norm.

Yesterday's (the 27th November 2010) daily IMT came to just -0.5c, the first sub-zero daily mean since the 22nd Februray last!

IMR (Irish Mean Rainfall) percentage of normal rainfall value for the month of November so far on 154.4%

thetonynator

And the min temp. so far is somewhere around -9 . . . i can sense that the mercy rule may be required!!!

M.T. Cranium

That's right about the mercy rules ... and I just went back into the archives to rescue them from the January contest thread ...

Here they are (so I can access them as needed end of this month) ...

---

First, to mean monthly temp, which is worth 25 points this year. The scores for this must exceed 20, 15, 10, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 for the first ten finishers. If at any stage of this progression the actual scores fell below that standard then for those contestants in rank order the scores would be increased to this progression.

For the two monthly extremes that are worth 20, the same logic applies and the standard will be 15, 12, 10 etc.

For the rainfall in percentage, the scores will be determined by taking off one point per 3% error. This component is worth 15 points, and the scores must equal or exceed 12, 10, 8, 7 etc.

For the sunshine in percentage, the scores will be determined by taking off one point per 5% error. This component is worth 10 points, and scores must equal or exceed 10, 9, 8, etc, except that the 10 can be reduced to 9 if the error is 10% or greater, which will then reduce the standard by one thereafter.

The bonus question will always be scored in rank order regardless of errors.

---

One thing perhaps not totally clear from the above, the minimum scoring rule is invoked whenever any score in the actual progression falls short of this minimum. But no scores that would be higher are adjusted down, scores are only adjusted up.

So just to clarify how that works for the monthly minimum where it may well be needed ... scores of 15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 will be awarded to the coldest forecasts. If let's say the person who would get 15 actually scores 17, then they stand at 17. If let's say the person who was second highest but would have gotten 11, then they get 12. Then say the people at 10, 8 and 6 actually score 10, 8 and 6 regardless, but after that, nobody would have scored ... then those people below 6 or fifth place would get the mercy rule scores. This is just a hypothetical to show how this works, it does not reduce anyone's raw score, but it requires that a minimum progression would exist, and that progression would appear in the adjusted scores as a minimum.

Here's another more likely example -- the raw scores give one person five points and another person two, with everyone else left out. That would require the two leading scores to be adjusted to 15, 12 and then in rank order, everyone closest to the actual value would get some points. Where there are ties, I don't extend the number of people who score, but pause the progression. So let's say four people tie at the adjusted value worth four points -- they all get four points, and the door is then closed, nobody gets three, two or one point(s).

Don't forget also that all scores are subject to 197% VAT or whatever it is.

Comments on this rule welcome as with all other aspects of the contest, we should have a discussion of the format in December before launching into 2011.

John mac

clear as mud

i dont mind what way the scoring is calculated (as long as i get highest )

M.T. Cranium

The low of -9.1 at Casement triggers off the mercy rule as explained ... congrats to Wolfe IRE with his lowest of our predictions ... it could get colder but the scores are now carved in stone in this category.

Deep Easterly

Final IMT value for November 2010 came to 5.1c, which is 1.5c below the 61-90 normal

Congrats to 'The Inquisitor' who guessed the closest (5.0c). M.T will have all the other relevant stats later on.

M.T. Cranium

I sure will ... now that I got out of bed.

As already known, max temp for month 17.1 C (4th, Oak Park)

min temp for month -9.1 C (Casement 28th)

max wind gust was 70 knots

rainfall (precip) 131% of normal for 11 stations reporting

sunshine 139% of normal for 6 stations reporting

I hope to have the month scored within the hour. Look for results on the annual scoring thread.