Can someone lend us 15 billion?

Gunsfortoys

Jesus christ, 15 billion.

I hate sensationalism and speculation but I think this could tip the country over the edge.

The Government has said it will need to bring in measures totalling €15bn over the next four years to meet a 2014 target for cutting the Budget deficit agreed with the European Union.
The figure of €15bn is double the one set out in last year's Budget.
The Government must bring the deficit down to 3% of economic output by 2014 to come back in line with EU rules.
Mr Lenihan said EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn will be in Dublin in early November to discuss the four-year framework plan with the opposition and the social partners. It is thought likely the plan will be formally published shortly after Commissioner Rehn's visit.
He also told journalists that the plan assumes an average growth rate over the four year period of 2.75%.
In a statement, the Government said the main reasons for the significant increase were lower economic growth prospects at home and abroad and the higher cost of paying interest on our debt.
The Government said the scale of the measures needed for next year and a breakdown for the remaining three years would be announced in the proposed four-year plan, expected to be published next month.
The Government said it realised that the spending cuts and revenue raising measures needed would have an impact on people's living standards, but warned that it was 'neither credible nor realistic' to delay these measures.
'To do so would further undermine confidence in our ability to meet our obligations and responsibilities and delay a return to sustainable growth and full employment in our economy,' the Government said.
Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said a significant frontloading of the €15bn correction will be required in 2011, but precise figures will not be given until the middle of next month.
He acknowledged the Government is concerned about the impact of the multi-billion euro correction, but said it has to happen to put the public finances back on a sustainable footing.
Minister for Tourism and Sport Mary Hanafin has said no department would be ring-fenced from cuts in the upcoming Budget.
She acknowledged a cut in child benefit was possible.
However, she said it was difficult to tax and added: 'There was no way of identifying who the high-earning families who got child benefit were.'
The Government's statement came after the Cabinet held a day-long session to discuss the Budget and the four-year economic plan.
Ministers met for over three hours at Farmleigh House in the Phoenix Park last night.
The meetings took place ahead of this week's Dáil debate on the economy.
The Government has warned that in addition to increased taxes, there will be spending cuts in health, social welfare and education.
Ministers arriving for this morning's session were keen to stress that fairness would be top of their agenda when framing cuts.
However, Government Chief Whip John Curran admitted that the social welfare bill would have to be reduced to meet targets.
Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources Eamon Ryan said there is no denying the difficult choices that have to be made.
Mr Ryan said the Government's job is to get a Budget that works and that gets Ireland out of the economic difficulties that it is in.
Earlier on RTÉ's Morning Ireland, Minister for Community, Equality & Gaeltacht Affairs Pat Carey said that nothing can be ruled out.
Mr Carey said no decision has been taken on reducing the Budget deficit to 10% by next year.
He said the Government's focus was to meet the 2014 target of 3% and that every area of expenditure would have to be examined.
Last night's meeting at Farmleigh was delayed to allow Minister Lenihan return from a meeting with EU Commissioner Ollie Rehn.
The subsequent discussions focussed on preparations for the Budget according to a spokesman, but Europe and the markets may be more interested in the four-year plan now due in three weeks' time.
That will chart the pattern of painful cuts across that period and will be the focus of this week's debate in the Dáil.
Final decisions on where the axe will fall in December's Budget will not be taken until tax receipts for this month are to hand.
Opposition briefings
Briefings of the Opposition finance spokespersons by officials in the Department of Finance resumed this afternoon.
Sinn Féin's Arthur Morgan had an hour-long meeting this morning, while Labour's Joan Burton arrived at the department at lunchtime. Fine Gael's Michael Noonan was briefed by Finance Minister Brian Lenihan this afternoon.
This is the third time Opposition spokespeople have met with Department of Finance officials.
Elsewhere, Davy Stockbrokers has lowered its forecasts for the economy this year and next year, warning that Budget measures are likely to affect consumer spending.
It expects gross domestic product to rise by just 0.3% this year, compared with its previous forecast of 0.8% growth.
Davy also expects gross national product, which excludes profits from multinational companies based in Ireland, to fall by 1.5%, compared with its previous forecast of a 1.2% fall.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1026/economy.html

CorkMan

Stupid cu*ts, they all need to get shot.

admiralofthefleet

oh for fuck sake

FreudianSlippers

€15bn over 4 years.

SeaFields

€15bn? Give another few months and it'll be reassessed to something larger. Its not as if they have managed to get anything right so far bar their expense claims forms.

squod

I told you all. We shoulda sold Limerick back in the boom. Now look at us.........

Wagon

Nothing surprising there. Wouldn't be like these cúnts to tell the truth would it?

OPENROAD

Is it not likely that the figure will increase? are they basing it on people spending as they are now, cause I reckon they will be spending a lot less.

Faith+1

I can see them making a total ass of it again, Soon to be followed by another emergency Budget around April '11

bigwormbundoran

SeaFields wrote: »

€15bn? Give another few months and it'll be reassessed to something larger. Its not as if they have managed to get anything right so far bar their expense claims forms.

Quite wrong in fact I would say

rossie1977

if someone gave the government €15billion they would just throw it into that bottomless hole that is anglo irish bank

FreudianSlippers

OPENROAD wrote: »

Is it not likely that the figure will increase? are they basing it on people spending as they are now, cause I reckon they will be spending a lot less.

No, its a €15bn worth of cuts over 4 years to get our debt down to 3%.

This thread is way off base.

Quandary

Ah christ,

here i am half way through my Hdip in primary teaching.

Im totally getting in at the wrong time. I suppose its a good job im not doing it for the money :rolleyes:

admiralofthefleet

squod wrote: »

I told you all. We shoulda sold Limerick back in the boom. Now look at us.........

he said 15 billion, not 15 cent

Gunsfortoys

OisinT wrote: »

No, its a €15bn worth of cuts over 4 years to get our debt down to 3%.

This thread is way off base.

No it isn't. Their projections are double what they were last year. They can't seem to get the figures right. They have effectively made the situation worse. If this was proving effective it would have been reduced at least a bit by now.

FreudianSlippers

Gunsfortoys wrote: »

No it isn't. Their projections are double what they were last year. They can't seem to get the figures right. They have effectively made the situation worse. If this was proving effective it would have been reduced at least a bit by now.

So you're saying we're €15bn in debt today?

Clearly the article is about making €15bn in cuts over 4 years.

starbelgrade

Dunno what everyone is so worried about. It's only a few quid.

OPENROAD

OisinT wrote: »

No, its a €15bn worth of cuts over 4 years to get our debt down to 3%.

This thread is way off base.

The figure is not based on cuts alone though, so logically they have to base it on assumptions i.e. the amount they expect to collect over the next four years which is why the opposition have been asking for clarification on assumptions that have been used.

SeaFields

bigwormbundoran wrote: »

Quite wrong in fact I would say

Well spotted. But I suppose revising upwards is all the rage these days with them.

FreudianSlippers

OPENROAD wrote: »

The figure is not based on cuts alone though, so logically they have to base it on assumptions i.e. the amount they expect to collect over the next four years.

The figures are estimated of course, but this is based on today's figures to reach 3% by 2014. You want them to be fortune tellers as well now? :rolleyes:

southsiderosie

Gunsfortoys wrote: »

No it isn't. Their projections are double what they were last year. They can't seem to get the figures right. They have effectively made the situation worse. If this was proving effective it would have been reduced at least a bit by now.

They have not made accurate budget predictions since 2007. Go back and read the 2008 budget - the future revenue estimates were an absolute joke.

At this point, the government should just have someone from the ECB come in and make the budget predictions in order to give the population and the markets some modicum of confidence in the figures.

Gunsfortoys

OisinT wrote: »

So you're saying we're €15bn in debt today?

Clearly the article is about making €15bn in cuts over 4 years.

Which is double the projections they made last year.

SeaFields

OisinT wrote: »

So you're saying we're €15bn in debt today?

I think i speak for every man, woman and child in Ireland when I say I wish it was only €15bn in debt we were today.

FreudianSlippers

Gunsfortoys wrote: »

Which is double the projections they made last year.

Yeah, when they did fúck all in cuts.

OPENROAD

OisinT wrote: »

The figures are estimated of course, but this is based on today's figures to reach 3% by 2014. You want them to be fortune tellers as well now? :rolleyes:

No,I made the point that this figure could increase, you said it wouldn't and was based on cuts alone, have a read of the post again

Gunsfortoys

OisinT wrote: »

Yeah, when they did fúck all in cuts.

There aren't enough facepalms.

FreudianSlippers

Gunsfortoys wrote: »

There aren't enough facepalms.

ORLY?

dambarude

Unless you can get somebody to lend us €15 billion euro every year your plan won't work very well OP.

marglin

its all a bit numbers in the sky isnt it? i mean there'll be an election soon enough with the winners being the ones who promise to repeal the most cuts, then telling us 2 years from now the deficit is 30bn, the imf is coming to steal our stuff and the rest of the country will be sold for scrap.

I'm proud to be Irish but im not thick and paying for these f**kers mess-ups is not on my list of things to do. Unfortunately for many of us the only winners will be Ryanair selling '1-way out of this sh*t' tickets

southsiderosie

OPENROAD wrote: »

The figure is not based on cuts alone though, so logically they have to base it on assumptions i.e. the amount they expect to collect over the next four years which is why the opposition have been asking for clarification on assumptions that have been used.

OisinT wrote: »

Yeah, when they did fúck all in cuts.

Everybody is looking too hard at one side of the equation. We need to pay more attention to what the government is saying about the other side: revenues. Because what they have said for the last 3 years has only made the current situation worse.

The Irish government relies on income tax and VAT for over 60% of its revenues. So essentially for the Irish government to function, people need to be working, and they need to be spending money. Well, unemployment has doubled, and people with jobs are not spending. And even if employment picks up, a lot of people will be paying down debt, rather than consuming.

The government can talk about cuts all it wants, but until they get realistic about revenue streams, every budget will be a disaster, and the news will always be bad. If they had any sense, they would have started revising revenues downward two years ago, so as to not freak people out so much when the quarterly economic reports are released. By setting expectations so high, they set themselves up for a terrible fall that has crushed investor and consumer confidence even further.

Ultimately, I don't care what kind of predictions the government has about growth or debt or whatever else. I want to see where they think the money is coming from, and how they see those revenues shifting over the next four years. Because part of the reason that the budget is so messed up today is that they based 2008-2009 spending on expected revenues that were nowhere near reality.

Gunsfortoys

southsiderosie wrote: »

Everybody is looking too hard at one side of the equation. We need to pay more attention to what the government is saying about the other side: revenues. Because what they have said for the last 3 years has only made the current situation worse.

The Irish government relies on income tax and VAT for over 60% of its revenues. So essentially for the Irish government to function, people need to be working, and they need to be spending money. Well, unemployment has doubled, and people with jobs are not spending. And even if employment picks up, a lot of people will be paying down debt, rather than consuming.

The government can talk about cuts all it wants, but until they get realistic about revenue streams, every budget will be a disaster, and the news will always be bad. If they had any sense, they would have started revising revenues downward two years ago, so as to not freak people out so much when the quarterly economic reports are released. By setting expectations so high, they set themselves up for a terrible fall that has crushed investor and consumer confidence even further.

Ultimately, I don't care what kind of predictions the government has about growth or debt or whatever else. I want to see where they think the money is coming from, and how they see those revenues shifting over the next four years. Because part of the reason that the budget is so messed up today is that they based 2008-2009 spending on expected revenues that were nowhere near reality.

Well said.

Even the ECB were concerned about the cuts recently as it would reduce consumer spending significantly. If they won't listen to them they won't listen to anyone.

skyhighflyer

Gunsfortoys wrote: »

Jesus christ, 15 billion.

I hate sensationalism and speculation but I think this could tip the country over the edge.





http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1026/economy.html

I hate sensationalism and speculation but I think this could tip the country over the edge.

That's right. I hear the Indo are looking for a junior economics correspondent; you seem to fit the bill.

It's €15bn over 4 years. And we were fcuked ever before this figure came up, which has been common knowledge for the past year or so.

Gunsfortoys

skyhighflyer wrote: »

That's right. I hear the Indo are looking for a junior economics correspondent; you seem to fit the bill.

It's €15bn over 4 years. And we were fcuked ever before this figure came up, which has been common knowledge for the past year or so.

Well done on the little dig. However was it common knowledge that the figure would be 15 billion over 5 years last year?

Maybe with your expert economic background, you could teach us a little about it, since I am a lowly junior economics correspondent.

mickydoomsux

So when exactly is the sky going to fall?

Every day i see threads in AH about how we're all doomed and what not and yet all i really see is a budget that might put us back to pre-boom levels financially and an umemployment figure that's been fairly static for months. In the industry i'm in (public transport) things are actually starting to pick up a bit again after a tiny lull.

It's just a re-adjustment, not the end of the world. Things will not be like they were during the boom because they should never have ended up like that in the first place. All this talk of the IMF/ECB is sensationalist nonsense. This amatuer financial analysis by everyone and their dog has replaced the Celtic Tiger begrudgery and one-ups manship that was the feature of the past decade.

southsiderosie

mickydoomsux wrote: »

So when exactly is the sky going to fall?

Every day i see threads in AH about how we're all doomed and what not and yet all i really see is a budget that might put us back to pre-boom levels financially and an umemployment figure that's been fairly static for months. In the industry i'm in (public transport) things are actually starting to pick up a bit again after a tiny lull.

It's just a re-adjustment, not the end of the world. Things will not be like they were during the boom because they should never have ended up like that in the first place. All this talk of the IMF/ECB is sensationalist nonsense. This amatuer financial analysis by everyone and their dog has replaced the Celtic Tiger begrudgery and one-ups manship that was the feature of the past decade.

Have you actually read the budgets?

And yes it is a readjustment, but the problem for a lot of people is that they will be stuck with 2007 debt in a 1997 economy.