Have to be in to win

fkiely

Trying to change the patterns I've slipped into of late so perhaps a log is the perfect tonic for it as it should impose a bit of discipline into proceedings which has been lacking of late.

Anyway I’ll start with my current balance in my paddy account of 150 and take it from there. No rules as such but I’ll try be a bit more sensible than I have of late. Anyway a few that take my fancy for today.

Villa – Birmingham
Home win for me here today. I feel like Birmingham are in for a tougher season this year than last and haven’t really been impressed with what I’ve seen of them so far. I think McLeish has purchased poorly over the last while and it’s beginning to show.

On the other hand I’ve been pleasantly surprised by Villa under Houllier. They had gotten a bit stagnant under O’Neill and they’ve been playing some decent stuff since the Frenchman took over. They’ve been quite unlucky in some of their recent results and their play has perhaps deserved more.

Bragging rights in Birmingham have certainly been laying with the home side of late, with Villa winning the last six derbies. They appear to have the upper hand and it’s in danger of turning into a psychological roadblock for Alex McLeish.

Villa have, however, been hit with a few injuries and suspensions which could be of serious detriment to the side. Marc Albrigton, a relative shining light for Villa this season, serves his ban after last week’s red. The other most notable absentees for the home side are Petrov and Agbonlahor. However the form of Ashley Young, Heskey and in particular Downing are cause for optimism and could limit how much those aforementioned may be missed.
Birmingham are not without their own problems with McFadden, Beausejour and Jermone all missing out.

The away side have yet to win on their travels while Villa have yet to lose at home. It’ll be a tough, physical encounter which will probably be determined by the single goal. However everything appears to point towards a home win and I’ll take them at their current price.

Aston Villa at 5/6


Bolton – Liverpool
Not as much to add to this game as we’re all well aware of the issues surrounding Liverpool and their poor form this season. Some have been arguing that they’ve managed to turn the corner but I remain quite sceptical of this thesis. They’ve yet to win away this season and have only scored in Old Trafford on their travels. They still leave a lot to desire in my eyes and I’m prepared to oppose them today.

Bolton on the other hand have been really developing under Owen Coyle and have completely transformed the way they play the game. They’ve been a bit unlucky in some of their matches this season not to get the three points but they’ve managed to draw six of them. They’ve been particularly strong at home under Coyle and I can see that continuing today. They’ve a few missing today but none are as vital to them as Kuyt and possibly Glen Hohnson are to Liverpool. It’ll be an interesting game to see how both managers approach the fixture tactically but I can see a share of the points today and quite like the price on offer.

Draw at 11/5

Malaga – Real Sociedad
Going to take the home win here today as I think the price on offer is very decent. Malaga have really impressed me this season despite their poor run of results. They’ve played some very good, counter-attacking football and don’t deserve to be where they are currently in La Liga.
It’s important when assessing Malaga’s season so far, one takes into account just how tough an opening set of fixtures they were handed. They’ve had four home games with four losses. However these were against Sevilla, Valencia, Villareal and Real. They accounted for themselves relatively well in those games but they’ll be viewing today’s match as their first ‘winnable’ game at home and I can see them getting it. Ferreria has been building up the importance of this game to Malaga this week and he should have his side well up for it.
Sociedad have been poor on their travels, losing all their games, since making the step up and I can see it being a relatively long season for them. I watched them squander a two goals lead midweek and they really didn’t impress me all that much. They played on Monday as well as Thursday and could be feeling the fatigue a bit today.
All in all I’m quite happy with evens for the home win today.
Malaga at evens

Atletico Madird – Almeria
Almeria have been quite tough to beat this season and this is a strange one for me to take as the visitors don’t really concede that many. Saying that Atletico are on the back of winning 5-0 midweek and seem to really be hitting form of late. They’ve slipped up in a couple of matches and Flores will want to sort that out tonight.
This is the type of game I like backing Atletico in as they really ahve the potential to turn it on in front of their own fans. The way they’ve been playing has been expansive and creative as always and they always look a danger. Forlan is in the midst of a goal drought but that could well end tonight. Relatively small stakes on the handicap.
Atletico -1 at 7/5

For today then I've taken the following
30 on Villa
15 on the Draw
50 on Malaga
25 on Atletico -1