Government to hold SW bye-election this month

muffler

On the point of putting up a poll which type do you all feel is best?

A. Who are you going to vote for?

or

B. Who do you think will be elected?

The candidates names will be included of course so if I can get an idea of which type of poll you want I can get it up and running sometime tomorrow.

Personally I'd go for option A

bigwormbundoran

muffler wrote: »

On the point of putting up a poll which type do you all feel is best?

A. Who are you going to vote for?

or

B. Who do you think will be elected?

The candidates names will be included of course so if I can get an idea of which type of poll you want I can get it up and running sometime tomorrow.

Personally I'd go for option A

Personally Id prefer A, only because it would give a more accurate reflection of who is likely to get in, if only those who have a vote cast in the poll

But its not as if people who do not have a vote for it will be stopped from voting anyway which could lead to inaccuracy

So B may be preferable in that sense

puffdragon

It might be a wee bit soon for "who are you going to vote for?" some people may still be undecided," Who do you think will win ?", would spark more discussion at this stage and might help those undecided, my preference is "A" as I know who i'm voting for but I'll go with either.

GoldenGreen

thought i read in one of the weekend papers that all the runners will be on the Frontline Need to double check though

implausible

Carrickman wrote: »

If Doherty ran as an Independent I think he would coast in as people as very weary of Sinn Fein.

Weary or wary? If the latter, I'd agree. He really has earned the respect of people and a national profile by taking that High Court challenge. The party he represents could be a step too far for a lot of people. However, if he got in, he could change the face of Sinn Féin, as let's face it, Ferris comes across as a bit of a gangster and O'Caoileán is beginning to sound like Paisley in his heyday - 'no' to everything!

muffler

Just to point out that if we agree on option "A" for the poll it wont be possible for anyone to see who "voted" for who

Just thought Id point that out in case people didnt want to take part in the poll because of the thought that their "vote" could be viewed.

puffdragon

I was sitting in a friends house yesterday when he got a phonecall from a guy in galway ,I'll not say his name, asking him to vote for O'Donnell because of his pro-life status ,(what exactly is Fiana Fails stance on this ?) so the full armoury of Fiana Fail is at work here , I think its sad that these tactics are being used to try to sway voters . Id still go for option "A".

K-9

Carrickman wrote: »

If Doherty ran as an Independent I think he would coast in as people as very weary of Sinn Fein.

I'd be very critical of SF but see Doherty as a credible candidate to me. Think it is, he is a younger generation and that counts for something.

shaggykev

somebody on this thread said it was a two horse race between FG & SF

I wish that were true but as a betting man, i should note the betting on FF has collopased

They started this election at 4/1 and are now into 13/8, 6/4(thats 1.5/1 to non bettors)

FG have been on the slide especially after O Neills poor show on Vinn cent Browne

I think even with how bad FF are doing nationally, DSW will still give FF over 30% of the vote. Pearse will not top the poll on the first count imo, only transfers will get him elected

How's everybody elses feeling on FG barry O Neill. Surely he's a better chance than 6/1 7/1 would indicate. I know hes very vocal on the health issue which is a real hot potato and if he and FG could promise to reverse some of the govs policies, they'd get huge votes.

But don't discount the noises about not cutting the OAP Pension getting O DOmhaill elected on the grey vote(its the biggest voting base FF have and can get him elected especially as most younger Donegal people are either in College(will they get back for Thursday election) or emigrated

Backard_Pell

Odds-checker still has Doherty as favorite, and FF at 7/4 http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/donegal-south-west/winning-partyThe Labour transfers are critical. Very few (max 10%) will go to FF, the rest will split between FG and SF. Normally you would expect these to break 3-1 for FG, but here they may not. The could even split 1-1 and keep SF ahead of FG. Either way. Labour transfers split in favour of FG. So it could be SF transfers that will decide the winner.It may not matter either way, as we are on the brink of national bankruptcy

muffler

Backard_Pell wrote: »

Odds-checker still has Doherty as favorite, and FF at 7/4 http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/donegal-south-west/winning-partyThe Labour transfers are critical. Very few (max 10%) will go to FF, the rest will split between FG and SF. Normally you would expect these to break 3-1 for FG, but here they may not. The could even split 1-1 and keep SF ahead of FG. Either way. Labour transfers split in favour of FG. So it could be SF transfers that will decide the winner.It may not matter either way, as we are on the brink of national bankruptcy

What you are saying effectively is that you think McBrearty will be eliminated at an early stage. Thats the only way his transfers would come into play.

bigwormbundoran

Pearse just put up on his Facebook page that he and the other candidates are to appear on the Frontline tonight, it's on RTÉ 1 at 22:35

feelpablo

clashing with the apprentice!

after the vincent brown fiasco im not really sure what i should tune into for my comedy fix tonight

bigwormbundoran

feelpablo wrote: »

clashing with the apprentice!

after the vincent brown fiasco im not really sure what i should tune into for my comedy fix tonight

Apprentice, shashmentrice! :pac:

Id imagine Frontline will be quite the bit more important now, does anyone know if Pringle and the other independent candidates are set to appear? It could just be the four lads who were on Vincent Browne on again.

What are the odds of Frank learning how the bond markets work in the past week, and showing of this fact at any opportunity tonight?

Carrickman

bigwormbundoran wrote: »

What are the odds of Frank learning how the bond markets work in the past week, and showing of this fact at any opportunity tonight?

I hear he has watched all 22 Bond movies this past week so he is well up to speed...

sligopark

muffler wrote: »

Next person who wishes to spoil this thread will be banned until after the by-election. No more warnings will be given.

Simple really.

mindful of this warning muffler but want to answer a post - if out of order no problem but would rather not get a ban for replying ... should I PM the reply?

muffler

sligopark wrote: »

mindful of this warning muffler but want to answer a post - if out of order no problem but would rather not get a ban for replying ... should I PM the reply?

As you obviously believe that it is going to be off topic then Id appreciate it if you PM'd the reply.

Thanks for asking in advance.

sligopark

muffler wrote: »

As you obviously believe that it is going to be off topic then Id appreciate it if you PM'd the reply.

Thanks for asking in advance.

welcome - PM'ed

sligopark

puffdragon wrote: »

(what exactly is Fiana Fails stance on this ?)

pm'ed you puffdragon

Carrickman

I only looked through Thursdays Donegal Democrat this evening and I see Frank Galligan gave this thread a mention, hi Frank;)

sligopark

here we go on frontline - stripey ties are obviously in - first off ff ...

implausible

McBrearty's very quiet this evening - must've learned his lesson from Vincent Browne. Doherty is a good media performer.

eddie73

From first to last in order of performance tonight on Pat Kenny

1 Sweeney
2 Doherty
3 Pringle
4 O'Domhnaill
5 Mc Brearty
6 O'Neill

Dont know why the 2 independents were relegated to the audience, it cheapened their status. They made excellent points and were obviously not tied down by the party political BS we are used to hearing.

North_West_Art

agree... I hadn't heard Sweeney speak before and she did make a couple of v good points, Pringle's green energy agenda makes clear sense, if I was a betting man though, I'd say my money would be on Doherty

puffdragon

A bit unfair I thought of Pat to introduce the Northern Ireland angle into the programme tonight, I thought he wrong-footed Doherty there a wee bit although Pearse gave a good account of himself overall and didn't get too flustered, it's hard to fight on two fronts at once. O Donnell , O Neill, predictable as usual, Ann Sweeney gave a good account of herself as well ,Pringle and Mc Brearty are irrelevant at this stage ,

muffler

puffdragon wrote: »

A bit unfair I thought of Pat to introduce the Northern Ireland angle into the programme tonight

Have to agree and he did it in a very aggressive manner imo.

Out of all the parties contesting the by-election Sinn fein are the only party who have political footholds on both sides of the border. Whether you like it or not NI is a different country and what happens there has no relevance on the by-election here. They have their own policies in that country and of course their own budget. Different horses for different courses as they say so I think Mr. Kenny was out of order on that point.

Once again I thought Doherty stood head and shoulders above the rest of the candidates.

O'Domhnaill didnt really improve or tell us anything new since his last TV appearance.

O'Neill seemed a little more confident tonight but did appear to struggle a bit with the questions.

McBrearty was very placid for a while until near the end. In fact at one time (from a wide camera shot of the 4 candidates) I thought it was a cardboard cut out of him as he was completely motionless A bit more composed but lacked any real punch.

I was glad to see the 2 independents there although they should have been up beside the others.

Pringle was playing to a very limited audience with his eco/green ideas and cant see him having any impact.

Sweeney had a nice composed aura about her but failed to come up with any meaningful proposals to back up her candidature.

K-9

puffdragon wrote: »

A bit unfair I thought of Pat to introduce the Northern Ireland angle into the programme tonight, I thought he wrong-footed Doherty there a wee bit although Pearse gave a good account of himself overall and didn't get too flustered, it's hard to fight on two fronts at once. O Donnell , O Neill, predictable as usual, Ann Sweeney gave a good account of herself as well ,Pringle and Mc Brearty are irrelevant at this stage ,

Well it is SF.

Would be similar to not taking FF to account for the recession.

Didn't see the programme, but did anybody question SF over the cuts in the North?

muffler

K-9 wrote: »

Didn't see the programme, but did anybody question SF over the cuts in the North?

Yes, as mentioned above Pat Kenny pressed Doherty in a very aggressive manner on the matter and wanted to know if his party was going to vote against cuts in NI.

As I said in my last post that had nothing to do with our by-election.

delaad

muffler wrote: »

Have to agree and he did it in a very aggressive manner imo.

Out of all the parties contesting the by-election Sinn fein are the only party who have political footholds on both sides of the border. Whether you like it or not NI is a different country and what happens there has no relevance on the by-election here. They have their own policies in that country and of course their own budget. Different horses for different courses as they say so I think Mr. Kenny was out of order on that point.

Once again I thought Doherty stood head and shoulders above the rest of the candidates.

O'Domhnaill didnt really improve or tell us anything new since his last TV appearance.

O'Neill seemed a little more confident tonight but did appear to struggle a bit with the questions.

McBrearty was very placid for a while until near the end. In fact at one time (from a wide camera shot of the 4 candidates) I thought it was a cardboard cut out of him as he was completely motionless A bit more composed but lacked any real punch.

I was glad to see the 2 independents there although they should have been up beside the others.

Pringle was playing to a very limited audience with his eco/green ideas and cant see him having any impact.

Sweeney had a nice composed aura about her but failed to come up with any meaningful proposals to back up her candidature.

Excellent summary. In terms of TV performances, O'Domhaill did not improve on VB. Doherty got some good hits in: school budgets, the court case, Fingleton - the questioner actually blushed on his reply!

Has to be Doherty. Only hitch might be Pensioners believing that O'Domhaill - who looks nice, and sulphur-free - might be better placed to prevent a cut in the OAP.

K-9

muffler wrote: »

Yes, as mentioned above Pat Kenny pressed Doherty in a very aggressive manner on the matter and wanted to know if his party was going to vote against cuts in NI.

As I said in my last post that had nothing to do with our by-election.

Oh right, it's a fair question though.

How a party has behaved in Govt. in a jurisdiction just 15 miles from me, being irrelevant? Particularly if preaching one policy here and 15 miles away implementing another.

Party policies, especially when in Govt., have everything to do with this bye election.

That's like saying O'Domhnaill has nothing to answer over NAMA et al.

eddie73

puffdragon wrote: »

A bit unfair I thought of Pat to introduce the Northern Ireland angle into the programme tonight, I thought he wrong-footed Doherty there a wee bit although Pearse gave a good account of himself overall and didn't get too flustered, it's hard to fight on two fronts at once. O Donnell , O Neill, predictable as usual, Ann Sweeney gave a good account of herself as well ,Pringle and Mc Brearty are irrelevant at this stage ,

Pat Kenny was equally hard on all the candidates, its his job to make it as uncomfortable as possible for them.

I also think Doherty would be the first to admit that it is SF manifesto to include NI in the all Ireland context.

Durnish

It's the same SF, north and south. That idea, after all, is their kinda raison d'etre. (excuse my French)
SF's refusal, so far, to come up with budget plans for NI has led to a lot of uncetainty and job loss fears here.

Backard_Pell

muffler wrote: »

What you are saying effectively is that you think McBrearty will be eliminated at an early stage. Thats the only way his transfers would come into play.

I wanted to wait until I saw Frontline before I replied... I think McBrearty was a lot quieter last night, I know that he was being briefed by Labour pr people during the week, I would hazard a guess and say McBrearty will be out at an early stage (although I would like to see Labour doing well)
Taking into account Doherty's performance last night, and the fact that he is 100% behind voting against the budget, I predict things may unfold as follows.

Expect an ultimatum in the headlines soon to say something to the effect of Ireland may have to pull out of EU and go back to 'Punt Nua' if (a) Ireland doesn't accept some form of bailout and (b) the budget fails to pass in December.
This threat would be enough to scare voters into having to vote for whatever party will implement EU guidelines... last thing they want to do in Europe is to have to go back to the drawing board over the head of some political squabbling in Ireland.

Carrickman

If only the programme was 5 or 10 minutes longer as McBrearty was starting to find form did you hear his remarks to Kenny to ask O'Domhaill about his Údarás expenses?

cosanostra

Pearse Doherty was miles in front of the rest on last night f.l. I think he answered the question about the cuts in the north very well saying that unlike the south they are not able to make decisions like introducing a rich tax etc. I think pat thought he was going to catch him out but he was very composed.

Anyone heard anything about thomas pringle really being a member of Errigi if he is why is he not running under the party is he planning on doing a seamus o domhnaill??

bigwormbundoran

K-9 wrote: »

Oh right, it's a fair question though.

How a party has behaved in Govt. in a jurisdiction just 15 miles from me, being irrelevant? Particularly if preaching one policy here and 15 miles away implementing another.

Party policies, especially when in Govt., have everything to do with this bye election.

That's like saying O'Domhnaill has nothing to answer over NAMA et al.

As Pearse said on the show last night, they dont decide the budget themselves, they are handed a budget from Westminister to work with, and have to decide where the money goes from there.

So they have no choice but to implement cuts when they only have a set pool of money to deal with, with no give on how much they can use by themselves as it is decided across the sea.

fontanalis

bigwormbundoran wrote: »

As Pearse said on the show last night, they dont decide the budget themselves, they are handed a budget from Westminister to work with, and have to decide where the money goes from there.

So they have no choice but to implement cuts when they only have a set pool of money to deal with, with no give on how much they can use by themselves as it is decided across the sea.

Isn't that basic budgeting? Don't spend more than you have. If he's not in favour of cuts where does the money come from?

bigwormbundoran

fontanalis wrote: »

Isn't that basic budgeting? Don't spend more than you have. If he's not in favour of cuts where does the money come from?

As far as im aware his/Sinn Fein roll with the idea of a stimulus package, wherein (i assume you loan money) to put more money into the economy now through building schools, hospitals, infrastructure etc which automatically creates jobs in the creation of them, followed by more jobs when they are up and running. More people working -> more money spent in the economy -> more taxes paid -> eventual growth

This is obviously a very basic breakdown, but I think that it is the general idea of it

fontanalis

bigwormbundoran wrote: »

As far as im aware his/Sinn Fein roll with the idea of a stimulus package, wherein (i assume you loan money) to put more money into the economy now through building schools, hospitals, infrastructure etc which automatically creates jobs in the creation of them, followed by more jobs when they are up and running. More people working -> more money spent in the economy -> more taxes paid -> eventual growth

This is obviously a very basic breakdown, but I think that it is the general idea of it

Stimulate with what? The whole problme is there is no money. I'd have no problem with a stimulus program but it was decided a couple years ago to stimulate Anglo Irish Bank.
Anyone who right now says they won't make cuts and will spend more has no credibility as a public representatvie. He's just telling people what they want to hear.

bigwormbundoran

fontanalis wrote: »

Stimulate with what? The whole problme is there is no money. I'd have no problem with a stimulus program but it was decided a couple years ago to stimulate Anglo Irish Bank.
Anyone who right now says they won't make cuts and will spend more has no credibility as a public representatvie. He's just telling people what they want to hear.

The stimulus is on top of an increase in taxes, forgot to mention that


3rd tax band
Wealth tax
Have the highest earners who supposedly pay at a 40% tax rate (not all people on the higher rate are the highest earners by the way before the pedant in you jumps out again) actually pay that 40% as opposed to the 27% on average which the do pay thanks to various loopholes available

puffdragon

With all due respect there fontanalis, the stimulus package given to Anglo was more akin to giving the 50 men left without wages at the hospital the other day a whelbarrow each filled with cash and dumping it into the Swilly, wheras if the 58 million which is still left in the budget from last year which until now has not been allocated properly to school building projects was given to local contractors to upgrade the schools then this would "stimulate" the local economy.

fontanalis

puffdragon wrote: »

With all due respect there fontanalis, the stimulus package given to Anglo was more akin to giving the 50 men left without wages at the hospital the other day a whelbarrow each filled with cash and dumping it into the Swilly, wheras if the 58 million which is still left in the budget from last year which until now has not been allocated properly to school building projects was given to local contractors to upgrade the schools then this would "stimulate" the local economy.

That was my point, I should have put a different emphasis when I said stimulate. Basically whatever money that could have been put to use and invested (where did it go during the "good times" is another question) was squandered on the joke that shouldn't exist that is Anglo, money that will never be seen again.

sligopark

eddie73 wrote: »

Pat Kenny was equally hard on all the candidates, its his job to make it as uncomfortable as possible for them.

WRONG

I am anti sinn fein but Pat Kenny showed bias against Doherty on the basis of the past - why didn't he push the ff chap on past ff wrong doings and the fact they have brought the country to the brink of bankruptcy?

Out of all the candidates kenny managed to make himself look non partisan to say the least and didn't push the monotone o'neill on the fact fg wanted to make the property boom bubble bigger with their policies 2005 - 2007

sligopark

cosanostra wrote: »

Anyone heard anything about thomas pringle really being a member of Errigi if he is why is he not running under the party is he planning on doing a seamus o domhnaill??

sounds troll like even when read twice

puffdragon

When will the poll be starting or did Muffler decide against it?

Events further afield have distracted from this thread a wee bit tonight but those events will have a bigger effect on the Fianna Fail vote than any other, I would say more protest votes will result from the blundering and in particular Dermot Ahern's statements wont help O'Donnell a bit! It just gives people more ammunition to throw at the local politicians!

muffler

puffdragon wrote: »

When will the poll be starting or did Muffler decide against it?

Fact of the matter is that I only got 2 replies regarding what option people wanted and those were even muddied insofar as people saying that it could be either A or B for certain reasons.

maybe we need a poll about the poll

Its just a simple answer Im looking for from people - A or B without the various speeches. So if a few of you would indicate which option I'll see it to it then.

The options are:

A. Who are you going to vote for?

or

B. Who do you think will be elected?

bigwormbundoran

muffler wrote: »

Its just a simple answer Im looking for from people - A or B without the various speeches. So if a few of you would indicate which option I'll see it to it then.

The options are:

A. Who are you going to vote for?

or

B. Who do you think will be elected?

A it is for myself so

Larrson

A

sligopark

If Brian Lenihan stands up for Ireland and refuses an IMF/EU bailout on the basis of Irish taxpayers on top of bailing out Irish banks then being forced to bail bail out german bank losses in the Irish property boom bust I would see that as the first sign of back bone in ff and would vote for slippy o domhnaill on the basis of party affiliation - a surprise I know but hey just realised how damaging this bailout will actually be past cuts ...

implausible

A