Potential Stormy - Sun/Mon (Media hyped storm, never forecast by Met/Boards)

leahyl

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Good to see the Government stepping in early to avoid last year's flooding fiasco by providing free cheese to everyone

I know - excellent - that's really what we need as opposed to repaired quay walls and sand bags....:rolleyes::D

Chicken Run

leahyl wrote: »

I know - excellent - that's really what we need as opposed to repaired quay walls and sand bags....:rolleyes::D

perhaps it could be melted to stick the walls back together ??

Large lumps could be carved to form small boats

(not sure whether or not cheese actually floats.... back in a sec...)

leahyl

Chicken Run wrote: »

perhaps it could be melted to stick the walls back together ??

Large lumps could be carved to form small boats

(not sure whether or not cheese actually floats.... back in a sec...)

HAHA! Brilliant:D

eskimocat

There was a small bit from Eagle on Today FM news just now...

eskimocat

Large lumps could be carved to form small boats

(not sure whether or not cheese actually floats.... back in a sec...)[/QUOTE]


Well does it!!! lololololol

Meant to warn against testing cheese with holes in lolol

maquiladora

This is a good wide view to give you an idea of where the highest winds from this storm could be. You can see that we could be mostly protected from the strongest winds by being right in the core of the storm which is forecast to have a fairly large, flabby core. If the core was tighter and/or a bit further to the east then we could see a really serious storm here, but if it stays like that chart shows then we probably won't get damaging gusts apart from around exposed coastal areas and all the really high winds will be out at sea.

So while it is important to keep an eye on this one, I wouldn't panic or anything.

dsmythy

I seem to recall quite a large deep depression over the central U.S. a couple weeks back. We shared a cold winter with them last year, could we be a sharing a stormy one this time around?

oterra

What level of rainfall is expected?

Iancar29

OK some1 clarify this for me, on the Hearald FRONT page they have " HURRICANE ON THE WAY"... THey are wrong in saying its the last of Tomas aint they?

pauldry

Id expect about 30mm of rain in a lot of places. Think its too active a system to bring a wave of 50 or 60mm

WInds 60 to 70 mph if core moves east

Chicken Run

eskimocat wrote: »

Well does it!!! lololololol

Meant to warn against testing cheese with holes in lolol

cheese DOES NOT FLOAT !!! :eek:

oterra

Will the dublin area be at risk of flooding?I presume there will be a significant swell offshore dublin??

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

OK some1 clarify this for me, on the Hearald FRONT page they have " HURRICANE ON THE WAY"... THey are wrong in saying its the last of Tomas aint they?

*facepalm* They are not saying that are they?

Tomas will be nearer to Florida than Ireland on Sunday!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl#contents

gbee

Iancar29 wrote: »

OK some1 clarify this for me, on the Hearald FRONT page they have " HURRICANE ON THE WAY"... THey are wrong in saying its the last of Tomas aint they?

met Eireann made a mistake, BUT they did correct it ~ however, they did not alert that a mistake had been made so no one updated their copy.

Another week before see Tomas, if we see anything associated with it at all. It's dumping rain on Haiti.

force eleven

Iancar29 wrote: »

OK some1 clarify this for me, on the Hearald FRONT page they have " HURRICANE ON THE WAY"... THey are wrong in saying its the last of Tomas aint they?

People who regularly watch the weather and post here will be throwing their eyes up to heaven at that headline. Its sensationalist and wrong - if it's true, but I did get a call from a relative earlier who said three people had told her about a hurricane on the way, so the media spin has gone into overdrive. The problem here is the low pressure and high tide combination,with strong winds driving the tides higher. But widespread hurricane force winds and damage are not going to happen....reading back, I sound a bit like Michael Fish, October 87' there don't I?

maquiladora

oterra wrote: »

Will the dublin area be at risk of flooding?I presume there will be a significant swell offshore dublin??

Yes.

Weather Alert

Weather forecasts, in conjunction with the City’s tidal surge early warning system, suggest a severe low pressure off the west coast of Ireland in combination with southerly/easterly winds of 70km per hour gusting to 100km per hour over the coming days. The combination of high tides and low pressure increase the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly at high tide around midnight on this coming Sunday, 7th November and midday on Monday, 8th November.

Dublin City Council has started to deploy temporary flood defences in potential at risk areas. Alerts will be issued through the radio and other media when more information becomes available.

Car parks on the seafront at Clontarf and Sandymount will be closed from Sunday 7th until the evening of Monday 8th November. Motorists are advised not to leave cars in these areas, as they may be at risk from flooding, due to wave action. Local Road closures may be required and these will be identified closer to the weekend as more reliable weather forecasting is available.

Further updates will be given as soon as the information is available from Met Eireann

http://dublincity.wordpress.com/

delw

Iancar29 wrote: »

OK some1 clarify this for me, on the Hearald FRONT page they have " HURRICANE ON THE WAY"... THey are wrong in saying its the last of Tomas aint they?

Su Campu wrote: »

Just to put it to bed for once and for all, as people are still saying to me in work that we're in for Hurricane Tomas Sunday night - the storm we'll get is nothing whatsoever got to do with Tomas, as you can see from the chart below. If anybody says it to you, please put them right, cos it's driving me mad!!!!

06UTC this morning, showing the start of Sunday's system just off the US east coast, and Tomas well to the south, over Haiti. The large upper trough marked in blue will deepen further, tightening the upper gradient between it and the ridge, strengthening the jetstream to well over 200mph by late Saturday/early Sunday, which will give the forcing required for explosive cyclogenesis during Sunday afternoon.

thanks to Su Campu for clarifying

WolfeIRE

Wind charts for Sunday eve and Monday eve

Please note that winds around 90kph will result in the following, according to the Beaufort Scale
Trees are broken or uprooted, building damage is considerable. Large waves (6-9 meters), overhanging crests, sea becomes white with foam, heavy rolling, reduced visibility.

The pink colours here indicate winds of 80-95kph.




Beaufort Scale
http://www.marinewaypoints.com/marine/wind.shtml

oterra

maquiladora wrote: »

Yes.

Weather Alert

Weather forecasts, in conjunction with the City’s tidal surge early warning system, suggest a severe low pressure off the west coast of Ireland in combination with southerly/easterly winds of 70km per hour gusting to 100km per hour over the coming days. The combination of high tides and low pressure increase the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly at high tide around midnight on this coming Sunday, 7th November and midday on Monday, 8th November.

Dublin City Council has started to deploy temporary flood defences in potential at risk areas. Alerts will be issued through the radio and other media when more information becomes available.

Car parks on the seafront at Clontarf and Sandymount will be closed from Sunday 7th until the evening of Monday 8th November. Motorists are advised not to leave cars in these areas, as they may be at risk from flooding, due to wave action. Local Road closures may be required and these will be identified closer to the weekend as more reliable weather forecasting is available.

Further updates will be given as soon as the information is available from Met Eireann

http://dublincity.wordpress.com/

Thats great realtime info. Must check boards rather than Met Eireann in future

Iancar29

gbee wrote: »

met Eireann made a mistake, BUT they did correct it ~ however, they did not alert that a mistake had been made so no one updated their copy.

Another week before see Tomas, if we see anything associated with it at all. It's dumping rain on Haiti.

Cheers, hate to be the person that made that mistake ha.
Even us here on boards wouldve known! ha

Hav the radio on to listen out and see if they mention it , and if they do say it wrong again im gonna phone in make them right!....in a polite way of course! ha

Not

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the Beaufort scale refer to sustained wind speeds rather than just gusts ? Isn't all the hype around this storm related to gust speeds ? If so, then it doesn't seem such a big deal ? I'm struggling to see whats so unusual about it in respect of the usual few Altantic storms we get every year. I remember storms of a higher gust speeds happening in Ireland without so much hyping of catastrophy

WolfeIRE

Not wrote: »

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the Beaufort scale refer to sustained wind speeds rather than just gusts ?

who said gusts?

maquiladora

Not wrote: »

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the Beaufort scale refer to sustained wind speeds rather than just gusts ? Isn't all the hype around this storm related to gust speeds ? If so, then it doesn't seem such a big deal ? I'm struggling to see whats so unusual about it in respect of the usual few Altantic storms we get every year. I remember storms of a higher gust speeds happening in Ireland without so much hyping of catastrophy

The storm itself looks really interesting on the models. It's very unusual for a storm to 'bomb' and then track in the direction it is being forecast to take. I think the guys on the NW forums were looking at the archives and how to go back about 70 years before finding something that looked similar. So its exciting from a weather watching POV.

I showed in a post back there that the strongest winds are forecast to be well out at sea and we may end up in the slack core. I honestly don't think there is anything to worry about at the moment in terms of high winds except on exposed coasts. The bigger concern is probably from flooding and there are flood alerts out in Dublin and Galway already.

Not

WolfeIRE wrote: »

who said gusts?

UKMO for a start 'gusts of 55 - 60 mph'. That does not seem like a violent storm to me. If it was a sustained windspeed, that would be different.

leahyl

My workmates said at lunch that it's 'only the east and west coast that's gonna get this storm' but isn't it moving across the country from the Atlantic? And flood alerts in Galway, Dublin and Waterford but nothing in Cork - typical:rolleyes:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1105/flooding.html

chipsdave

leahyl wrote: »

sounds serious! If that's what they are actually doing - gearing up for a storm. Can't remember the last time we had a proper wind/rain storm though -well not in cork anyway. I mean i know we had the flood last year but it wasn't very windy really

xmas Eve 1997 was the last one Leahy ,I remember it well ,We were fairly marooned here ,had left our xmas food shopping 'til late and ended up with nothing ! U couldn't cook anyway as no Electricity ,We survived though !!!:)

naughto

leahyl wrote: »

My workmates said at lunch that it's 'only the east and west coast that's gonna get this storm' but isn't it moving across the country from the Atlantic? And flood alerts in Galway, Dublin and Waterford but nothing in Cork - typical:rolleyes:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1105/flooding.html

u can come and stay with me lenny iam sapose to get the brunt of it in the west

leahyl

chipsdave wrote: »

xmas Eve 1997 was the last one Leahy ,I remember it well ,We were fairly marooned here ,had left our xmas food shopping 'til late and ended up with nothing ! U couldn't cook anyway as no Electricity ,We survived though !!!:)

Yes Chipsdave i remember it well - will never forget it! We were lucky enough to have electricity but i know plenty of people who didnt and had to do without their Christmas dinner! Remember being in the SMA in Wilton on Christmas Eve with my family and the windows at the back of the altar had been smashed in by the force of the wind - it was unbelievable:D

Chicken Run

maquiladora wrote: »

I showed in a post back there that the strongest winds are forecast to be well out at sea and we may end up in the slack core. I honestly don't think there is anything to worry about at the moment in terms of high winds except on exposed coasts. The bigger concern is probably from flooding and there are flood alerts out in Dublin and Galway already.

I've brought in the trampoline anyway - just in case.... don't fancy chasing that across the fields (again)

rc28

Ye can someone please explain why this is getting so much attention. 55-60mph gusts are nothing we haven't seen plenty of times before.

Maybe because it has been a few winters since we've had a good storm that many trees are ripe to lose a few branches/fall down altogether?