snake bet pattern

Nataly

I have found this system and wonder what you think about it, its called the snake bet pattern. It looks something like this but dont know how this can turn out in the long run. Any suggestion about this would be nice: 1 chip on 0. 1 chip on 1. 1 chip on 3. 1 chip split on 4 and 5. 1 chip split on 11 and 12. 1 chip split on 16 and 17. 1 chip split on 23 and 24. 1 chip split on 28 and 29. 1 chip split on 35 and 36. 2 chips on row 1 to 34. 2 chips on row 3 to 36.

adamski8

Nataly wrote: »

I have found this system and wonder what you think about it, its called the snake bet pattern. It looks something like this but dont know how this can turn out in the long run. Any suggestion about this would be nice: 1 chip on 0. 1 chip on 1. 1 chip on 3. 1 chip split on 4 and 5. 1 chip split on 11 and 12. 1 chip split on 16 and 17. 1 chip split on 23 and 24. 1 chip split on 28 and 29. 1 chip split on 35 and 36. 2 chips on row 1 to 34. 2 chips on row 3 to 36.

i can bet you lose in the long term

L'prof

Nataly wrote: »

I have found this system and wonder what you think about it, its called the snake bet pattern. It looks something like this but dont know how this can turn out in the long run. Any suggestion about this would be nice: 1 chip on 0. 1 chip on 1. 1 chip on 3. 1 chip split on 4 and 5. 1 chip split on 11 and 12. 1 chip split on 16 and 17. 1 chip split on 23 and 24. 1 chip split on 28 and 29. 1 chip split on 35 and 36. 2 chips on row 1 to 34. 2 chips on row 3 to 36.

Bet|Chips
0|1
1|1
3|1
4|0.5
5|0.5
11|0.5
12|0.5
16|0.5
17|0.5
23|0.5
24|0.5
28|0.5
29|0.5
35|0.5
36|0.5
1-34|2
3-36|2
Total:|13

A simplistic take on this would be to assume that over a large sample size you'll get an even number of each result (00, ..., 36). So if we just look 0,at what the return would be for 38 bets with the ball landing on every possible outcome, we'll get an idea of just how profitable this strategy might be.

So, the total outlay for this would be 38 * 13 chips = 494 chips.

0, 1, 3 would return 3 * 36 * 1 chips = 108 chips

11, 12, 16, 17, 23, 24, 28, 29, 35, 36 would return 10 * 36 * 0.5 chips = 180 chips

1-34, 3-36 would return 2 * 12 * 3 * 2 chips = 144 chips

This would leave you with ROI = -12.55% (-62 chips)

Any system can potentially work over a small sample size, but the house has an edge on every outcome on the board, so they'll always win.

Mellor

L'prof, even going into that kind of detail means one of two things, you have too much time or you haven't much of a clue about roulette or betting. I hope its the former.

Nataly, in a fair game of roulette, each spin, each bet, each chip is independant.
All the payouts are directly based on the chances of coming up if the "0" was excluded. So, your EV is always the same, and always a negitive. Systems, spread it around, martingale etc are all losers, and by the eactly same amount.

If you use the above, you are jsut as likely to win as a monkey throwing chips at the table.

L'prof

Mellor wrote: »

L'prof, even going into that kind of detail means one of two things, you have too much time or you haven't much of a clue about roulette or betting. I hope its the former.

Nataly, in a fair game of roulette, each spin, each bet, each chip is independant.
All the payouts are directly based on the chances of coming up if the "0" was excluded. So, your EV is always the same, and always a negitive. Systems, spread it around, martingale etc are all losers, and by the eactly same amount.

Like I said:

L'prof wrote: »

Any system can potentially work over a small sample size, but the house has an edge on every outcome on the board, so they'll always win.

And yes, too much time. I just wanted to get an idea of what kind of edge the house had over a system like this. Of course money can be won, but I wouldn't use this system. Black or red for me.

Mellor

L'prof wrote: »

And yes, too much time. I just wanted to get an idea of what kind of edge the house had over a system like this. Of course money can be won, but I wouldn't use this system. Black or red for me.

If that case, its a case of too much time AND not knowing how roulette works. Every bet is independent!!!!
The house's edge never changes in roulette. Regardless of system, 50/50, dozens, singles, groups, lots of little bets, one big bet etc etc ad nausium

European table - 3.7%
American - 5.2%

Maybe have a look at that -12.55% again

L'prof

Mellor wrote: »

If that case, its a case of too much time AND not knowing how roulette works. Every bet is independent!!!!
The house's edge never changes in roulette. Regardless of system, 50/50, dozens, singles, groups, lots of little bets, one big bet etc etc ad nausium

European table - 3.7%
American - 5.2%

Maybe have a look at that -12.55% again

Meh, I'm not that arsed to be honest. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Bets are independent, but I'd consider a system like that to be treated as one bet.

Mellor

You can treat it like one bet if you like, and as i said it makes no difference. The reason you are wrong is because you forgot 4 and 5, there should be an extra 36 chips returned.


like i said, the edge is always the same. Had you of counted right, you'll notice it cancells down to 2/38 (or green/total which works for both tables), which is a lot easier than the way you did it. plus, you won't make mistakes.

L'prof

Mellor wrote: »

You can treat it like one bet if you like, and as i said it makes no difference. The reason you are wrong is because you forgot 4 and 5, there should be an extra 36 chips returned.


like i said, the edge is always the same. Had you of counted right, you'll notice it cancells down to 2/38 (or green/total which works for both tables), which is a lot easier than the way you did it. plus, you won't make mistakes.

Haha, yeah I was just a bit of a retard that day. I just had a look at of his possible bets and individually they all return -5.26%, so that's exactly what their return should be collectively. It's also the same as betting either black or red, so that would definitely be the bet for me...even though it was already!