The Week Ahead - Discussion - Potentially Storm Thursday

irish1967

Yeah. Haven't read anything in the papers so the charts must all be fakes.

irish1967

In 2 years I have never seen the symbol for Thursday on my AccuWeather app. !!

maquiladora

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Factors favouring delivery of strong winds would be presence of strong jet stream over Ireland, good isobar pattern (a slight flabby core in this case would actually get the stronger winds over Ireland)....

A bit like what the 0Z GME is showing.

rhonin

irish1967 wrote: »

Ok folks.. don't anyone jinx this one. If you are thinking it. Don't say it.

It will be nice and calm for Sligo and Donegal

rhonin

maquiladora wrote: »

Becky/Last night's low was only about 9 hpa higher than that. The difference is not just that this has lower pressure but it has a better core structure and tighter isobars. It's not a flabby one. :P (On this model anyway)

Oh, and the storm of 1839 was 918.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Big_Wind

http://www.mayoalive.com/MagApr23/BigWind.htm
Some indication of the damage it caused in Mayo.

Storm 10

Its unreal to think of all the panic generated by the media over the Storm this weekend gone where we were told wind would be gusting around 100 k yet this morning on radio the Met Girl said wind on Thursday would gust over 130 k and not a word about it on the radio or press.

maquiladora

Had a quick look at the 0Z models and don't see much difference from the 18Z runs one way or the other.

Met Eireann giving top gusts 30kph higher than they ever forecast for Becky.

Thursday: A very windy day with gale force westerly winds gusting to 130km/h.

You could probably add another 10-15 on to that for Malin Head.

Models are going to have to start shifting the track south a bit for any severe gusts to be felt anywhere beyond the Northwest I think.

maquiladora

06Z GFS has the low a bit further south on this run but the storm itself is slightly less intense so overall not much difference.

snowjon

Just back from a long weekend in London - it's certainly been interesting getting the Southeast perspective on our Atlantic storms. On Sunday night, while it was cold, dry and calm in London - back in Northern Ireland it was apparently blowing a tremendous gale with heavy, driving rain. When the system arrived in London yesterday, it was just some moderate rain and slightly windy conditions - very dull! Most times I watch the forecast of these systems - this always seems to be the case with the winds and rain weakening as the storm tracks across the UK.

Certainly makes me appreciate the weather we get here in Ireland a lot more It's not for everybody, but I like to see a bit of exciting weather - looks like Thursday could provide the next dose of weather interest here!

WolfeIRE

Surfers say weather conditions off the west coast combined perfectly to create huge waves of up to 40 feet high yesterday.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1109/surfing.html

Storm 10

Picture of the waves on this link from the West Coast yesterday, unreal height 40 to 50 feet.

http://www.irishtimes.com/

CarMuppet

^^and they are still on about Tomas!

Deep Easterly

Latest EMHI HIRLAM 06z run has gales or severe gales smashing onto the west coast from mid morning Thursday:




Pretty much in agreement with the latest GFS wind chart Maq posted earlier. An encouraging trend.

nacho libre

rhonin wrote: »

http://www.mayoalive.com/MagApr23/BigWind.htm
Some indication of the damage it caused in Mayo.

A really great read that. Thanks for posting it.

maquiladora

06Z GFS ensembles show that the operational run was above the mean & control again, plenty of members with lower pressure. Not a big deal but it does lean towards a slightly more intense or slightly more southerly tracking low.

Hooter23

There wasn't much about the storm on weather forecast on tv just now she just said storm force winds for the northwest on Thursday and just moved on to Friday quickly:mad: kinda weird as this storm has a lot of potential to be really severe for parts

Bluetonic

Nice sea at high tide at Balbriggan an hour ago, great sky too.

Sorry for the poor camera phone quality.

maquiladora

Hooter23 wrote: »

There wasn't much about the storm on weather forecast on tv just now she just said storm force winds for the northwest on Thursday and just moved on to Friday quickly:mad: kinda weird as this storm has a lot of potential to be really severe for parts

Well they probably don't want to talk about it too much just yet after the way the media went so over the top a few days ago.

At the moment I don't think it looks reallly that severe in fairness. Most places inland probably won't see winds much higher than last Sunday night. Potential for some damaging gusts in some exposed areas in the northwest but I dont think it looks too severe.

TheInquisitor

Looks like the models have brought the storm slightly more south in the latest run. The north is gonna get a serious hammering now. Also back down to 955 from the previous runs of 960. All good news. Well in my view anyway!!

leahyl

Oh please move further south PLEAAAASE!!:D

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

Oh please move further south PLEAAAASE!!:D

I hear ya Leahyl but tbh the south coast will probably end up with similar winds as last Sunday night. There might be another storm following on behind this yet but thats far from certain at the moment.

leahyl

maquiladora wrote: »

I hear ya Leahyl but tbh the south coast will probably end up with similar winds as last Sunday night. There might be another storm following on behind this yet but thats far from certain at the moment.

Thanks Maquiladora - i will keep my fingers crossed and hope for a storm of epic proportions!:D

Su Campu

06Z GFS pressure and windspeeds for 12Z and 15Z Thursday, showing up to 55kt (Storm Force 10) sustained off the northwest coast.

12Z



15Z

cian1500ww

I've got a ferry crossing to Wales from Rosslare on Thursday night, chances of it being cancelled??

maquiladora

cian1500ww wrote: »

I've got a ferry crossing to Wales from Rosslare on Thursday night, chances of it being cancelled??

If the storm plays out as the models are showing now then I would expect that to be cancelled.

nacho libre

Su Campu wrote: »

06Z GFS pressure and windspeeds for 12Z and 15Z Thursday, showing up to 55kt (Storm Force 10) sustained off the northwest coast.




so Dun Briste is the place to be on Thursday. :pac:

TheMilkyPirate

nacho libre wrote: »

so Dun Briste is the place to be on Thursday. :pac:

Yeah, Nailed down to the floor!

irish1967

So this will be a daylight event ? I think I will be getting a few interesting pics

Rougies

latest 12z GFS has thursdays' storm slightly more intense and the strongest winds further south. Good signs.

maquiladora

12Z GFS is another upgrade. Very similar track but more intense storm.