The Week Ahead - Discussion - Potentially Storm Thursday

ninebeanrows

12z GFS paints a dangerous storm winds much of Northern parts of Ireland, some severe gusts to 75-85mph in exposed Northwestern areas likely.

Widespread gusts potential to 60-70mph with areas in the northeast as the low moves east could be hit by 70mph-80mph gusts as the system moves into Irish sea.

Northwestern England looks to be smashed.

This is based on 925hpa winds during the period, max exposed Donegal coasts to 75 knots Thursday afternoon

Min

I know some love storms but even the last storm led to one death, a farmer worried a tree would cause damage if it fell in the storm and ended up killed cutting down the said tree, all because of Becky and the overhyping by the media.

I remember a few years ago a lorry driver was killed when his lorry was blown over a bridge in Derry.

Lets have snow, it is probably safer.

TheMilkyPirate

Min wrote: »

I know some love storms but even the last storm led to one death, a farmer worried a tree would cause damage if it fell in the storm and ended up killed cutting down the said tree, all because of Becky and the overhyping by the media.

I remember a few years ago a lorry driver was killed when his lorry was blown over a bridge in Derry.

Lets have snow, it is probably safer.

I'm not being rude min but every post you have in this thread is negative, you posting here is not going to make the storm go away. If you don't like storms fair enough but we do.

Min

baraca wrote: »

I'm not being rude min but every post you have in this thread is negative, you posting here is not going to make the storm go away. If you don't like storms fair enough but we do.

I don't get the fascination with wind and wanting the speeds increased when it only leads to deaths, trees falling after all the rain, side winds when driving, I can't understand when some people want the storm to get worse.

Can I wish a bad storm on all those who want it and may they remember it with no electricity for a few days and the roofs blown off their houses. They want it bad.

OK, I don't wish that on anyone but imagine if you wanted a bad storm and a loved one got killed or you had to move house as it suffered severe damage.

It is simply wishing for danger by wanting the models to show a more severe storm.
80mph winds is not the worse but it can do enough to kill.

I am being positive, negative is wanting the storm to be worse.

TheMilkyPirate

Min wrote: »

I don't get the fascination with wind and wanting the speeds increased when it only leads to deaths, trees falling after all the rain, side winds when driving, I can't understand when some people want the storm to get worse.

Can I wish a bad storm on all those who want it and may they remember it with no electricity for a few days and the roofs blown off their houses. They want it bad.

OK, I don't wish that on anyone but imagine if you wanted a bad storm and a loved one got killed or you had to move house as it suffered severe damage.

It is simply wishing for danger by wanting the models to show a more severe storm.
80mph winds is not the worse but it can do enough to kill.

I am being positive, negative is wanting the storm to be worse.

I understand that storms are dangerous, So are hurricanes and tornadoes but people chase them because there exciting. One mans gravy is another mans marmite as my dad says.

Hooter23

Well this is a weather forum and of course people here are interested in extreme weather these storms are going to happen anyway I also at times would like the storms to be stronger because I enjoy that.
It dosnt mean we want widespread damage or deaths the first thing I do when I hear there might be a bad storm coming is tell family so they will be safe

Min

baraca wrote: »

I understand that storms are dangerous, So are hurricanes and tornadoes but people chase them because there exciting. One mans gravy is another mans marmite as my dad says.

I would love to go tornado chasing but you wouldn't choose to be in it's path for a first hand experience.

I just think among all the excitement, we should also make clear the dangers.
I am ok if a storm comes from the south or east as I am sheltered, a storm with south west to west to north west winds means my location is sticking out like a sore thumb.
The Christmas eve storm destroyed a neighbour's shed, and then while I was checking on my elderly neighbours it destroyed one of my own sheds.
That wind was so strong you could lean into it and the wind would hold you.
I just don't want destructive winds, it costs too much with lives and property and the same can be said with hurricanes and tornadoes, they are exciting but we would be better off without them when they kill so many people every year.

I know some might think I am boring weather wise but working out in it a lot, I like boring weather, it makes life easier.

maquiladora

12Z GFS brings gales/strong gales to pretty much all exposed coastal areas at times. Inland gales possible in places from the northwest to the southwest then strong winds along the east coast with sustained storm force, gusting to violent storm force in the Irish Sea.

Big difference between last Sunday night and what the GFS has for Thursday but remember its still only a model!

Cionád

Weathercheck wrote: »

12z GFS paints a dangerous storm winds much of Northern parts of Ireland, some severe gusts to 75-85mph in exposed Northwestern areas likely.

Widespread gusts potential to 60-70mph with areas in the northeast as the low moves east could be hit by 70mph-80mph gusts as the system moves into Irish sea.

Northwestern England looks to be smashed.

This is based on 925hpa winds during the period, max exposed Donegal coasts to 75 knots Thursday afternoon

If that pattern was to materialise would it be considerably stronger than Sunday/Monday for the bulk of the island, or just the North?

ninebeanrows

Cionád wrote: »

If that pattern was to materialise would it be considerably stronger than Sunday/Monday for the bulk of the island, or just the North?

This storm will have much bigger impact everywhere barring the southern coasts and south east coast.

The previous 'Storm' was not a storm but hyperbole by the media.

Min

Cionád wrote: »

If that pattern was to materialise would it be considerably stronger than Sunday/Monday for the bulk of the island, or just the North?

This in my opinion looks like a proper storm and like all bad storms it comes without the hype.

maquiladora

This storm has been given the name Carmen.

mickger844posts

This is looking like a storm and not what we had at the weekend. Batten down the hatches if this comes off :eek:

oterra

Min wrote: »

I don't get the fascination with wind and wanting the speeds increased when it only leads to deaths, trees falling after all the rain, side winds when driving, I can't understand when some people want the storm to get worse.

Can I wish a bad storm on all those who want it and may they remember it with no electricity for a few days and the roofs blown off their houses. They want it bad.

OK, I do.

I don't imagine for a minute that anyone here wishes death and distruction on any family. The truth is storms do what storms do. With these discussion threads it's purely the science people are interested in. It's great to be able to understand how these storms develop and with the expertise on here the general public that want to understand can learn alot. The storms are tracked here and people do get excited about pattern and model changes.

Winger_PL

I can understand the lack of warnings/media interest in Ireland given the casual outcome of the last weekend's system, but I don't get why I don't see any early warnings on the Met Office UK website. Absolutely nothing despite the following issuing criteria: "These are issued when the Met Office has 60% or greater confidence that severe weather is expected in the next few days."

maquiladora

Cionád wrote: »

If that pattern was to materialise would it be considerably stronger than Sunday/Monday for the bulk of the island, or just the North?

Based on just this (GFS) model (which is subject to change!) there would be widespread gusts inland of 100kph. Higher in exposed/coastal areas.

maquiladora

I don't have access to this viewer (it's from a subscription service) so I cannot show the estimated gusts for the west/northwest which I imagine would be higher, but anyway these are the estimated gusts for later when the storm would be affecting the east more.

TheInquisitor

And the UKMO brings the storm a tinsy tiny bit more south again....

maquiladora

Good agreement between the UKMO, NAE and GFS.

ECM 12Z should be interesting.

Sierra Oscar

Will there be much rainfall generated over Ireland by this system, or is it predominately a "wind event"?

maquiladora

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Will there be much rainfall generated over Ireland by this system, or is it predominately a "wind event"?

Rainfall should be less than last Sunday and faster to clear, thankfully.

maquiladora

Latest Met Eireann outlook :

Thursday: A windy, showery morning, but becoming extremely windy for the afternoon and evening and much of the night. Gale force westerly winds will give gusts of 90 to 110 km/h generally, but up to 130km/h in the northwest of the country.

Su Campu

Here's the 925hPa wind forecast and height (06Z GFS), which will give an idea of the winds just a couple of hundred metres above sea level (the actual height in dm is indicated by the numbers - add a zero to get it in metres). Obviously these winds are closest to the surface in northern areas. We should see these winds brought to the surface in the form of gusts. Near Belmullet we can see 70kts at about 460m (1,500ft) above sea level. Near Malin Head, 65kts at about 360m (1,200ft), so we could imagine gusts of 65-70kts in the northwest, with more on higher elevations.

Down south, probably more like 50kts.

Note, if the 12Z run is an upgrade on this, then we could add a few knots to those figures.

Maybe MT could expand further on this as I'm not really sure what altitude winds he would use in forecasting gusts - this is just my guesswork.

TheMilkyPirate

I remember about 4 maybe 5? years ago there was a storm and down on wexford quay it was crazy standin on the bridge gettin blown over and the waves crashin up on to the marina, I don't know a whole lot but i remember it was late november early december when it happened anyone be able get a chart for that night??

And will thursday resemble it in anyway?

Thanks

nacho libre

so then gusts of up to 80mph in the northwest. you can probably add about 10 mph on to that for parts of western Scotland.
hopefully the ecmwf chart won't be a downgrade.

it's striking how often this happens- all eyes are focused on a potential big storm only for another, more dangerous, one to creep up on us a few days later.

nacho libre

maquiladora

nacho libre wrote: »

27/9/10 ?

Thursday's storm is still west of Greenland.

maquiladora

Looking at the 12Z GFS ensembles for Dublin, the operational had slightly higher pressure than the mean and control. No sign of a downgrade imminent.

maquiladora

12Z ECM :

Hooter23

Is that a downgrade r upgrade it looks a bit closer I'm not sure