The Week Ahead - Discussion - Potentially Storm Thursday

TheInquisitor

Damn you maq you were mere seconds faster than me!!

Anyway following on from the chart posted above the 72 hours chart shows the low moving away reasonably quickly and as far as i can see a lot faster than before so the time with strong winds may be much more short lived than the up the 8 hours predicted

maquiladora

12Z ECM looks more intense than the GFS to me?

Looks a bit further south.

TheInquisitor

Hooter23 wrote: »

Is that a downgrade r upgrade it looks a bit closer I'm not sure

The only thing about it is the core is getting a bit of a flabby centre to it. This may help more of the country get strong winds. Also all runs have been very consistent with only slight movements southward. I must say assuming the storm pans out something like this the models will have done very well predicting the Monday of the small wind and this storm. They might even be due a little bit of credit for quite good accuracy for medium term forecasts

Min

oterra wrote: »

I don't imagine for a minute that anyone here wishes death and distruction on any family. The truth is storms do what storms do. With these discussion threads it's purely the science people are interested in. It's great to be able to understand how these storms develop and with the expertise on here the general public that want to understand can learn alot. The storms are tracked here and people do get excited about pattern and model changes.

Science is not based on hope. Some people hope the storm will be worse. Lets not pretend it is all science, people here hope the storm gets an upgrade, I hope it gets a downgrade, we are not basing hope on science but on personal wishes.
I know no one wants any death or destruction but depending on how the storm developed it either raises or lowers the risk and I am simply taking that into account.

I love the science and the various weather models that give indications of what is to come, weather is weather, some want the storm to be upgraded which means the dangers are higher, others want to see a downgrade, it is all weather.

It is no harm for a voice to be in the wilderness here, at least the forum will look a bit balanced, as a weather lover it doesn't have to mean we all want to see a storm upgraded everytime the next weather model comes out to show her wares.

TheInquisitor

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z ECM looks more intense than the GFS to me?

Ya ECM definitely looks like its another 20-30miles south. You can see the light blue on the GFS on the south of the country on the ECM its gone to dark blue.

Hooter23

Min wrote: »

Science is not based on hope. Some people hope the storm will be worse. Lets not pretend it is all science, people here hope the storm gets an upgrade, I hope it gets a downgrade, we are not basing hope on science but on personal wishes.
I know no one wants any death or destruction but depending on how the storm developed it either raises or lowers the risk and I am simply taking that into account.

I love the science and the various weather models that give indications of what is to come, weather is weather, some want the storm to be upgraded which means the dangers are higher, others want to see a downgrade, it is all weather.

It is no harm for a voice to be in the wilderness here, at least the forum will look a bit balanced, as a weather lover it doesn't have to mean we all want to see a storm upgraded everytime the next weather model comes out to show her wares.

Stop talking rubbish:mad: you said you would prefer snow as it would be safer well what about the homeless and the elderly I mean more people die cause of the cold every year than storms it just dosnt make the news as it's less dramatic enough said:p:pac:

maquiladora

Might be time to remove the "potentially" from the thread title.

maquiladora

Wow, they really downplayed that on the TV forecast. Winds "perhaps even touching gale force" on the West coast.

Rougies

maquiladora wrote: »

Wow, they really downplayed that on the TV forecast. Winds "perhaps even touching gale force" on the West coast.

pre-prepared forecast maybe?

as in not up to date with the ECM/GFS becuase they're all gone home?

Hooter23

Really I missed it what charts are they looking at lol maybe that's a good thing because every time they say something like that it turns out much more intense

isle of man

Going to ask the quastion again.

what sort of wind speeds can i be looking at,
worse or less than sun/mon storm.

and what direction are they heading.

thanks you guys

Rougies

isle of man wrote: »

Going to ask the quastion again.

what sort of wind speeds can i be looking at,
worse or less than sun/mon storm.

and what direction are they heading.

thanks you guys

In short, very high wind speeds. In fact the Isle of Man is going to get battered by this one if this evenings charts come off! Look at the colour codes at the bottom for windspeed, and that's just mean speeds, not gusts :eek: So yeah, worse than the sun/mon storm.

They're westerly winds for the Isle of Man in this chart btw.

isle of man

hmm that stops at 60kts.
not looking good

skipz

TheInquisitor wrote: »

The only thing about it is the core is getting a bit of a flabby centre to it. This may help more of the country get strong winds.

Spoken like a true weather enthusiast.
Because thats what the country needs alright!:D

Su Campu

maquiladora wrote: »

Wow, they really downplayed that on the TV forecast. Winds "perhaps even touching gale force" on the West coast.

Are you talking about Siobhan? She said "extremely windy" with "gale to storm force" winds in the west and north. And Pat Clarke said the same on the radio at 17:55. That'd be pretty on the mark if you ask me!

Redsunset

Probably mentioned but a strong jet too for Thursday looks like.

Pangea

Met eireann said 130km winds for the north west on thursday, that must be more than the weekends so called storm is it?

TheInquisitor

I stole this from the netweather forum. Gives an idea of winds we can expect on Thursday/Friday. Lads it looks like its becoming a decent storm

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

Met eireann said 130km winds for the north west on thursday, that must be more than the weekends so called storm is it?

yes it is. with this in mind the fact that so many people still put their trust in the media, i think there should be a warning thread on after hours, seeing as it is the most visited parts of boards.ie, about this storm as there is a danger people will either be complacent, or just plain unaware of the potential danger, after Sunday's system was perceived to be a damp squib, and as a consequence disregard the met eireann warning that this system could deliver gusts of between 40 - 70 mph to some inland parts of Ireland. it is in circumstances like these people could get killed as they undertake journeys and tasks in adverse conditions.

Ahorseofaman

approx what time will the strong winds hit or is it to early to say?

maquiladora

Su Campu wrote: »

Are you talking about Siobhan? She said "extremely windy" with "gale to storm force" winds in the west and north. And Pat Clarke said the same on the radio at 17:55. That'd be pretty on the mark if you ask me!

She was on the mark about it being extremely windy but it was the "perhaps even touching Gale force" that seemed very conservative to me.

I suppose they don't want media to pull another 'tomas'...

weisses

there is a warning out in Holland for this storm

Storm 10

Amazed there is no warning here when you consider all the hype of 100 k at the weekend, this storm looks pretty bad for Thursday

nacho libre

maquiladora wrote: »

She was on the mark about it being extremely windy but it was the "perhaps even touching Gale force" that seemed very conservative to me.

I suppose they don't want media to pull another 'tomas'...

regarding her forecast, it's more to do with her nervous presenting style than conservatism on her part. i think other forecasters would be better suited to conveying the danger as they are able to personalise their forecast. this is not a criticism of her, because she has only started out doing tv broadcast afterall.

isle of man

nacho libre wrote: »

yes it is. with this in mind the fact that so many people still put their trust in the media, i think there should be a warning thread on after hours, seeing as it is the most visited parts of boards.ie, about this storm as there is a danger people will either be complacent, or just plain unaware of the potential danger, after Sunday's system was perceived to be a damp squib, and as a consequence disregard the met eireann warning that this system could deliver gusts of between 40 - 70 mph to some inland parts of Ireland. it is in circumstances like these people could get killed as they undertake journey's and task in adverse conditions.

our local weather is saying 40mph winds. thats it.
hence the reason i come on here.

Su Campu

maquiladora wrote: »

She was on the mark about it being extremely windy but it was the "perhaps even touching Gale force" that seemed very conservative to me.

I suppose they don't want media to pull another 'tomas'...

I don't think she said perhaps, pretty sure she said gale to storm force. Of course the her bulletin's not in the RTE Player now so we'll never know! Have to listen to her after the Nine news....

Kippure

Tonights 18z run should start to refine this stormy outcome.

thetonynator

Min wrote: »

I know some love storms but even the last storm led to one death, a farmer worried a tree would cause damage if it fell in the storm and ended up killed cutting down the said tree, all because of Becky and the overhyping by the media.

I remember a few years ago a lorry driver was killed when his lorry was blown over a bridge in Derry.

Lets have snow, it is probably safer.

2 more died in the crash in tuam which was probably a direct result of the weather conditions.

Su Campu

The 18Z HiRLAM has it at 946hPa as it passes to the north midday Thursday, that's 5 hPa lower than its 12Z run, 5hPa lower than the ECMWF, 7 lower than GFS. That would be something!




Still some loose ends to be tidied up, but it sure does look windy for Ulster and Connaught!

thetonynator

Su Campu wrote: »

I don't think she said perhaps, pretty sure she said gale to storm force. Of course the her bulletin's not in the RTE Player now so we'll never know! Have to listen to her after the Nine news....

It's usually in the rte player, but you have to click onto the news and go to the very end of it.