The Week Ahead - Discussion - Potentially Storm Thursday

maquiladora

Su Campu wrote: »

I don't think she said perhaps, pretty sure she said gale to storm force. Of course the her bulletin's not in the RTE Player now so we'll never know! Have to listen to her after the Nine news....

Yeah strange that its not on RTE player. Im pretty sure of what she said but perhaps she meant to say storm force instead of gale force.

leahyl

Hows it looking for the south lads? I suppose we're gonna escape it?:rolleyes:

H2UMrsRobinson

Judging by previous posts the models seem to be behaving lately, but is there any chance this could downgrade by Thursday. I'm a hopeless optimist (bordering on delusional) and don't want to get my hopes up too much. Is this likely to be a daytime event? i work on top floor of a building with specatacular panorama over dublin city/hoath, and it'd be nice to time my lunchbreak to watch the "storm" - so an ETA would be nice! (i'm only half joking if I'm honest)

Su Campu

maquiladora wrote: »

Yeah strange that its not on RTE player. Im pretty sure of what she said but perhaps she meant to say storm force instead of gale force.

But she DID say storm force!!! :P

Deep Easterly

Siobhan on now.

CarMuppet

Weather forecast tonight was stressing the term "extremely windy" and the word STORM was on the chart for Thursday.

oterra

Siobhan just said extremely windy conditions for Thursday with gale force winds. She probably could have elaborated a bit more but definitely more intense than last Sunday!

maquiladora

Good forecast there. Severe gusts and she emphasised extremely windy a couple of times with that warning graphic.

Lets see what the 18Z GFS brings...

Villain

Typical Media, over hype the last storm and ignore this one.

oterra

A least we're aware of it!

cian1500ww

I must be the only one in the weather forum hoping this won't be too bad!! Got a ferry crossing Thursday night

maquiladora

Its already further south at 18 hours.

Deep Easterly

Su Campu wrote: »

The 18Z HiRLAM has it at 946hPa as it passes to the north midday Thursday, that's 5 hPa lower than its 12Z run, 5hPa lower than the ECMWF

That could be down to the higher resolution those charts use as they use 2 hPa rather than the 4 hPa isobar increment on the basic ECMWF chart.

irish1967

Are the defence forces on standby for this. Are flood defences in place like they were on Sunday ??
Did the hype lead to these being in place last Sunday and does the lack of media hype mean they won't be in place on Thursday ??

Heyes

Sorry if its been asked already, but are the winds picking up on wednesday or thursday as ive seen a few different stories. Im flying into Ireland on Wednesday evening, and id like to land before anything kicks off

Also any chance of there been worse weather than sunday, it was great to watch !

Su Campu

Deep Easterly wrote: »

That could be down to the higher resolution those charts use as they use 2 hPa rather than the 4 hPa isobar increment on the basic ECMWF chart.

No, that's nothing to do with it, the ECMWF has the core pressure marked too

M.T. Cranium

Get ready for upgrades at 18z ... the RGEM model which comes out earlier than most (goes to 48h) shows 949 mb at 36h (06z Thursday) at 58N 18W, and a drop in heights for 500-mb supporting low to 495 dm.

The 48h panel loses the storm off-grid but the track looks to be the same as before, so would assume we will be seeing model depictions in the 940s now.

I am heading over to the forecast thread to post an update suggesting stronger winds than in morning forecast, as soon as I see confirmation on 18z GFS. May not need to upgrade those very much as I was ramping a bit after noting the trend. How does 50-70 mph inland and 60-100 coastal sound (with 40-60 southern counties)?

I like the idea of a post on the after hours forum, can that somehow direct to the forecast and this discussion thread and otherwise be closed so we get the newbies in the interrogation chamber? :cool:

maquiladora

irish1967 wrote: »

Are the defence forces on standby for this. Are flood defences in place like they were on Sunday ??
Did the hype lead to these being in place last Sunday and does the lack of media hype mean they won't be in place on Thursday ??

Met Eireann havent mentioned any flooding risk from this that I am aware of.

M.T. Cranium

Might be a good idea to edit the title of this thread to take the "potentially" out of play.

Flood potential, one limiting factor is that we are well past astronomical highest tides (new moon plus five days by storm date). Would think that Galway Bay would have some kind of storm surge as well as to a lesser extent Shannon estuary. Donegal Bay would have local issues if there are any harbours open to west, bays that face north would tend to get much less buildup of excess water. Just at a rough guess, Galway might be the place to watch, and some big swells/waves will develop with this storm as it will be impacting a moderate sea state left from the last storm. I would stress watching from a safe distance, this storm has monster wave potential. The account of the 1839 storm shows that in extreme conditions a storm surge is possible even where coast is not greatly indented. That storm occurred five-six days after a full moon (have data showing full moon Dec 31, 1838) so in most extreme case could get tidal surges well away from spring tides. Don't this will quite reach those proportions.

Su Campu

Heyes wrote: »

Sorry if its been asked already, but are the winds picking up on wednesday or thursday as ive seen a few different stories. Im flying into Ireland on Wednesday evening, and id like to land before anything kicks off

Also any chance of there been worse weather than sunday, it was great to watch !

Wednesday evening should be fine. Wind getting up along the west, but Shannon and Galway airports should be fine. Only issue is Knock, which could be a problem with strong enough southerly winds (ie. crosswinds on the east-west runway), but they shouldn't be strong enough until late in the night.

maquiladora

Short version : 18Z GFS upgrades the storm a bit more.

Min

A question out of total curiosity.

If one is living on a hill or mountain and is on the side facing the wind with an expanse of ground that is much lower for lets say 30 to 40 miles.
What effect would this have on the wind speeds given the air has less friction with land.
Would it be as bad as a coastal area?

Lets say one is 250 metres up and the land around is 150m or less for dozens of miles with the wind hitting the hill head on.

What is the science of hills/mountains and windspeed compared to lower ground. I know it is faster wind speeds but how much faster if say the speed was 100km/h at the lower level.

ok you should be confused now :P

TheInquisitor

The GFS model with its slight upgrade again...

Su Campu

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Get ready for upgrades at 18z ... the RGEM model which comes out earlier than most (goes to 48h) shows 949 mb at 36h (06z Thursday) at 58N 18W, and a drop in heights for 500-mb supporting low to 495 dm.

The 48h panel loses the storm off-grid but the track looks to be the same as before, so would assume we will be seeing model depictions in the 940s now.

I am heading over to the forecast thread to post an update suggesting stronger winds than in morning forecast, as soon as I see confirmation on 18z GFS. May not need to upgrade those very much as I was ramping a bit after noting the trend. How does 50-70 mph inland and 60-100 coastal sound (with 40-60 southern counties)?

I like the idea of a post on the after hours forum, can that somehow direct to the forecast and this discussion thread and otherwise be closed so we get the newbies in the interrogation chamber?

I've posted a thread in the After Hours forum.
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056085114

Min

Looks like the ESB crews are going to be very busy.

unknownlegend

Su Campu wrote: »

I've posted a thread in the After Hours forum.
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056085114

Hopefully should generate some interest and increase the awareness of the storm. Havent heard much in the press, probably due to the decreased flood risk.

maquiladora

18Z NAE

Deep Easterly

HIRLAM 18z cloud forecast for Thursday afternoon:



occlusion wrapping around the low over the north and northwest along with severe coastal gales and very gusty winds further inland.

maquiladora

Looks like it could be the most significant storm since 2005?

H2UMrsRobinson

maquiladora wrote: »

Looks like it could be the most significant storm since 2005?

Ooo...Now i'm getting that tingly feeling in my tummy