The Week Ahead - Discussion - Potentially Storm Thursday

leahyl

Su Campu wrote: »

I've posted a thread in the After Hours forum.
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056085114

Somehow I don't think after hours is the best forum for this thread to be taken seriously:D!

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

Looks like it could be the most significant storm since 2005?

I'd say more since March 2008 Maq, there was a similar storm that month if I recall correctly. Jan 2009 also brought some very strong winds along the west coast as well.

H2UMrsRobinson

leahyl wrote: »

Somehow I don't think after hours is the best forum for this thread to be taken seriously:D!

The general consensus in there so far is...ooh big deal a bit of wind...be laughing on the other side of their faces when they're dodging flying wheelie bins on the daily commute! Tie down the cattle - have you seen Twister?

leahyl

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

The general consensus in there so far is...ooh big deal a bit of wind...be laughing on the other side of their faces when they're dodging flying wheelie bins on the daily commute! Tie down the cattle - have you seen Twister?

Ya I know - or as one of them called wind "fast air" hhhmmmm....very fast methinks! Although probably won't be too bad down in the real capital:(

hotwhiskey

I have to travel to Enniskellin on Thursday evening around 7pm, I was wondering will the back end of this storm have passed, If not, how bad of conditions am i looking at. Thanks!

je55ie

Is this mainly an issue for the north ? Are they winds in the south forecast to be similar to Sundays ?

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I'd say more since March 2008 Maq, there was a similar storm that month if I recall correctly. Jan 2009 also brought some very strong winds along the west coast as well.

Ah yes. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2008/Rrea00120080310.gif

Su Campu

The 18Z Danish HiRLAM has the low only reaching 949hPa, where the Icelandic version had it at 946. The discrepancy is that the Danish version below is the S03, which gets its boundary conditions from the larger M09, whereas the Icelandic gets its from the ECMWF (as does the M09).

Here's the 18Z S03 run, showing mean winds of up to 50kts along the Donegal coast.

maquiladora

jessie37 wrote: »

Is this mainly an issue for the north ? Are they winds in the south forecast to be similar to Sundays ?

Strongest winds in the west, northwest and east coast but all areas should see stronger winds than Sunday.

Su Campu

hotwhiskey wrote: »

I have to travel to Enniskellin on Thursday evening around 7pm, I was wondering will the back end of this storm have passed, If not, how bad of conditions am i looking at. Thanks!

The worst will be from midday to around 5pm, but it will still be dangerous for a while after that. Watch out for fallen trees and debris. Good thing is there won't be the continuous rain like there was Sunday evening.

maquiladora

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

Ah yes. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2008/Rrea00120080310.gif

That's the one Maq!

Sat grab of the 17th Jan 2009 storm, which was the last half decent blast we have had to date

H2UMrsRobinson

[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Beaufort Wind Scale[/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Windspeed[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]in MPH[/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Description - Visible Condition [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]0 [/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Calm smoke rises vertically [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]1 - 4 [/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Light air direction of wind shown by smoke but not by wind vanes [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]4 - 7 [/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Light breeze wind felt on face; leaves rustle; ordinary wind vane moved by wind [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]8 - 12 [/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Gentle breeze leaves and small twigs in constant motion; wind extends light flag [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]13 - 18 [/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Moderate breeze raises dust and loose paper; small branches are moved [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]19 - 24 [/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Fresh breeze small trees in leaf begin to sway; crested wavelets form on inland water [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]25 - 31 [/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Strong breeze large branches in motion; telephone wires whistle; umbrellas used with difficulty [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]32 - 38 [/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Moderate gale whole trees in motion; inconvenience in walking against wind [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]39 - 46 [/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Fresh gale breaks twigs off trees; generally impedes progress [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]47 - 54 [/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Strong gale slight structural damage occurs; chimney pots and slates removed [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]55 - 63 [/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Whole gale trees uprooted; considerable structural damage occurs [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]64 - 72 [/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Storm very rarely experienced; accompanied by widespread damage [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]73+ [/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Hurricane devastation occurs
[/FONT]

je55ie

I know this might be hard to forecast but Im flying from Scotland to Cork on Thurs at 5pm, would it be likely there would be delays or cancellations due to the weather? thanks for any replies:)

Su Campu

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Beaufort Wind Scale[/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Windspeed[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]in MPH[/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica] Description - Visible Condition [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]0 [/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Calm smoke rises vertically [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]1 - 4 [/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Light air direction of wind shown by smoke but not by wind vanes [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]4 - 7 [/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Light breeze wind felt on face; leaves rustle; ordinary wind vane moved by wind [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]8 - 12 [/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Gentle breeze leaves and small twigs in constant motion; wind extends light flag [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]13 - 18 [/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Moderate breeze raises dust and loose paper; small branches are moved [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]19 - 24 [/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Fresh breeze small trees in leaf begin to sway; crested wavelets form on inland water [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]25 - 31 [/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Strong breeze large branches in motion; telephone wires whistle; umbrellas used with difficulty [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]32 - 38 [/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Moderate gale whole trees in motion; inconvenience in walking against wind [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]39 - 46 [/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Fresh gale breaks twigs off trees; generally impedes progress [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]47 - 54 [/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Strong gale slight structural damage occurs; chimney pots and slates removed [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]55 - 63 [/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Whole gale trees uprooted; considerable structural damage occurs [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]64 - 72 [/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Storm very rarely experienced; accompanied by widespread damage [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]73+ [/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Hurricane devastation occurs
[/FONT]

And for those of you thinking of venturing out in your dingy, here's what you can expect at sea!

maquiladora

Id expect we will see a severe weather warning from Met Eireann posted overnight or early tomorrow.

Su Campu

jessie37 wrote: »

I know this might be hard to forecast but Im flying from Scotland to Cork on Thurs at 5pm, would it be likely there would be delays or cancellations due to the weather? thanks for any replies:)

Where in Scotland? I'd say Glasgow will be a bumpy takeoff...if at all!

je55ie

Su Campu wrote: »

Where in Scotland? I'd say Glasgow will be a bumpy takeoff...if at all!

Yes Glasgow...looking doubtful so Thanks Su Campu

Su Campu

jessie37 wrote: »

Yes Glasgow...looking doubtful so Thanks Su Campu

The good thing is the runway heads NE-SW, so would be pretty much into the wind, so that will work in your favour. If it's Prestwick, even better.

I'd say it's 50:50 at this stage.

North Cork

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/warnings.asp

Metcheck Weather Watches & Warnings

This section displays the latest adverse weather across the UK and in the event of severe weather, a Metcheck forecaster will add a direct warning for the event.
Weather Warning

A Metcheck Weather Watch/Warning has been issued for parts of the UK.

Please use the map on the right to view the affected areas. The full advisory is available below.
Issued
09 November : 10:10:28 PM

Valid Until
12 November : 06:00:28 PM

Area RiskHigh Risk Moderate Risk Low Risk No Risk


Weather Related AdvertAdverse Weather?
Check Keepmoving.co.uk for the latest traffic information.

Forecasters Warning Heavy Rain and Severe Gale Risk

Areas Affected: Potentially all of Britain and Ireland, but central areas currently at highest risk of seeing gales or severe gales develop during the second of Thursday through into Friday.

Valid: Thursday 11th and Friday 12th November 2010

This is an update to the Advance Weather Warning that was first issued by Metcheck at 08:00 on Tuesday 09th November 2010, this update issued at 22:10 on the same date.

Another deep Atlantic low is forecast to affect Britain and Ireland during Thursday and Friday, with another band of wind and rain crossing the country on Thursday, clearing to showers but with gales or severe gales developing across central and northern parts of Britain by then.

Current projections indicate that 12-25mm of rain may fall from this system and with this falling onto already saturated ground this may cause further concerns with localised flooding.

Along with the band of rain, it will become very windy with south-westerly winds potentially gusting up to 60mph at times. However, the main concern is for Thursday afternoon, evening and night through into early Friday when severe westerly gales across central and northern Britain as well as across Ireland may gust up to 85mph around coasts and 75mph over inland areas of Ireland and northern England, bringing the risk of structural damage as well as fallen trees/branches.

This Advance Weather Warning will be updated tomorrow morning, Wednesday 10th November 2010.

Issued by: Paul Barber for Metcheck
---END---

DominoDub

irish1967 wrote: »

Are the defence forces on standby for this. Are flood defences in place like they were on Sunday ??
Did the hype lead to these being in place last Sunday and does the lack of media hype mean they won't be in place on Thursday ??

snow ghost

DominoDub wrote: »

It was Barry Sinclair, it's amazing what hypnotism can do.

Su Campu

The first signs of tomorrow night's winds start to appear in tonight's 23Z TAFs, valid up to midnight tomorrow.

Shannon
From 10pm - S 18 gust 30 kts - Moderate rain

Connaught
From 8pm - S 20 gust 32 kts - Moderate rain and fog

Cork
From 9pm - S 23 gust 35 kts - Moderate rain

Dublin
From 8pm S 16 gust 28 kts

Belfast Aldergrove
From 9pm - S 20 gust 35 kts - Moderate rain

Deep Easterly

Here is the ECMWF wind forecast for Thursday afternoon, during the height of the gale:



Storm force 10 winds threatening the NW coast, Gales or stong gales along in coastal areas in general and very blustery overland as well with frequent gale gusts.

Su Campu

Where did you get that chart Deep? Very nice....

Deep Easterly

Su Campu wrote: »

Where did you get that chart Deep? Very nice....

Here Su. Use the "Europe" tab for HIRLAM charts and "Rest of the World" tab for the ECMWF run. Great zoom in feature on both.

Su Campu

Here's the US NWS's FAX chart for 12Z Thursday. They seem a bit flathúlach with the 50 knot barbs in the south I reckon....

Pangea

A certainly eventful week of weather, and we are only half way through it.
Thursdays storm appears to have missed the media spotlight as Nacho said.
Looks like I better not take the wheelie bins out of the garage yet :pac:

Sponge Bob

New Weather woman highlighted it on the late forecast ( around midnight) . Mainstream now.

Iancar29

Ah cool, so I mite get some stormy pictures/videos after all.
So from that wind chart lads , roughly 40knot winds for the east coast during the height of the storm?