One Down - Three Up

argosy2006

kryogen wrote: »

so, if the fav is 10/3 and the second fav is 9/2 you also rule out the second fav and back the three below it???

sorry, just trying to get your system right in my head

I do this on bet fair, 10/3 on betfair is 4.3 rougly, 9/2 on betfair is 5.5 betfair
4..3 is not within 1.00 of 5.5 so no in that case i'd only eliminate one,
But in bookies i can see you point, as prices are always same in bookies, yesterday i think there was 4 6/1's in race i played, on betfair they were all different prices and easy to pick my three,
there have been loads of cases where in the bookies i would not have been on the correct three in market, Thats why i only use betfair for this as its easy work out next three in market just before they run,
example 4.35 f 5.44, 5.67. 5.90... < in bookies the would look 10/3 9/2 9/2 9/2 and be confusing, and would not pay the extra 0.67 of a pt. all adds up,

I,M DUE A LOSS TODAY, BEEN ON GOOD RUN ,

argosy2006

Letyourselfgo wrote: »

Well done again man just one more thing regarding your clear profit, should it not be 3.43 as 2 of the points out of your 5.43 is your stake back, maybe I'm reading it wrong.

2.25 WOLVES, WINNER 5.81BF
3.00 WOLVES WINNER 5.62 BF

I assure you its all correct, 5.81 bf wins, so i minus 3 from it to give me my clear profit 2.81
5.62 bf wins i minus 3 to give my clear profit 2.62, which on day is 5.43 clear profit,
I throw 2 pts down the drain everyrace i win, in return it gives me a excellent strike rate, so its a trade off
Most pros would not be happy to knowingly throwing 2pts away every race,
But i,m no good at picking horses, i,m good at systems :P
And if i can return more pts than pricewise every month for same amount staked then who cares, pts are pts, doesnt matter how u get them,

Letyourselfgo

Sorry I read it wrong, I now see where you have points won you've already deducted the stake, my bad.

argosy2006

argosy2006 wrote: »

Backing next three in market after the favourite on BF
Eliminating also one horse within 1.00 of favourite
if thats how prices go

NO rule changes yet, as above

3.05 MARKET RASEN
3.55 SEDGEFIELD

3.05 MARKET RASEN , LOSER - 3PTS
3.55 SEDGEFIELD, LOSER - 3PTS.

STAKED 6
LOST 6
WON 0
LOSS OF 6

argosy2006

RESULTS FOR JAN 2011

STAKED 115PTS
WON 112.48TS
LOST 92PTS

CLEAR PROFIT 20.48PTS

18% ROI

RESULTS FOR DEC 2010

STAKED 115

AND 22.00 PTS PROFIT


TWO MONTHS OF PROFIT, AND I KNOW I HAVE BACKED LOTS OF SILLY
RACES, WISHFUL THINKING THAT FAVOURITE WOULD LOSE RATHER
THAN PUTTING EFFORT INTO MY RACES,
THIS MONTH I'LL BE MORE DISCIPLINED, HOPE TO IMPROVE GREATLY
________________________________________________________________
FEB 2011 RESULTS SO FAR
Staked 30
Won 43.38
Lost 23
Profit 20.38PTS

ROI OVER 68%

argosy2006

Backing next three in market after the favourite on BF
Eliminating also one horse within 1.00 of favourite
if thats how prices go

NO rule changes yet, as above

3.35 LINGFIELD
4.40 LINGFIELD

Im thinking i should not eliminate two horses if the favourite is a high price 5.30 bf so on, as i eliminated a 6.20 bf yesterday, and it won
ie 5.30 and 6.20 are within 1.00 of each other, but with a price so high i should make a new rule not to do this if favourite trades above 5.00 bf

ANYWAY, NO RULE CHANGE YET, I'LL CONTINUE ON,
WITH THE 13 PTS I GAINED ON PAPER ON SUNDAY I,M 33PTS UP THIS MONTH FROM 42 STAKED,, ( not adding my 13pts to thread though) as not proofed,

Game on

argosy2006

Backing next three in market after the favourite on BF
Eliminating also one horse within 1.00 of favourite
if thats how prices go

NO rule changes yet, as above

2.20 SOUTHWELL - 3PTS

TWO RACES IN ABOVE POST - 6PTS


-9PTS FOR TOTAL

argosy2006

DAM IT, PICKING RIGHT RACES AND GETTING NO LUCK,
ATLEAST THE FAVOURITES ARE FLOPPING :mad:

argosy2006

2.50 SOUTHWELL - 3pts
3.00 MUSSLEBURG WINS BF 8.28
4.10 MUSSLEBURG - 3PTS
4.55 KEMPTON - 3PTS. < a mistake race, i'll add it in,
5.10 WOLVES - 3pts
5.40 WOLVES - 3pts


18PTS STAKED. BIGGEST DAY IN A WHILE,, ONE AT A TIME THOUGH,,,,,,,,,
I CAN STOP ANYTIME,,,,,,,,,:P

STAKED 18
LOST 17 PTS !
WON 5.28PTS
LOSS 11.72

argosy2006

Backing next three in market after the favourite on BF
Eliminating also one horse within 1.00 of favourite
if thats how prices go

NO rule changes yet, as above






2.05 LINGFIELD - 3pts
2.50 AYR

---

WINS bf 9.40
2.35 LINGFIELD - 3PTS
4.15 LINGFIELD -3PTS

STAKED 12
LOST 11
WON 8.40
LOSS 2.60PTS

argosy2006

Backing next three in market after the favourite on BF
Eliminating also one horse within 1.00 of favourite
if thats how prices go

NO rule changes yet, as above

5.10 EXETER WINS BF6.37 BF

STAKED 3
LOST 2
WON 5.37 PTS
PROFIT 3.27 PTS

argosy2006

argosy2006 wrote: »

2.50 SOUTHWELL - 3pts
3.00 MUSSLEBURG WINS BF 8.28
4.10 MUSSLEBURG - 3PTS
4.55 KEMPTON - 3PTS. < a mistake race, i'll add it in,
5.10 WOLVES - 3pts
5.40 WOLVES - 3pts


18PTS STAKED. BIGGEST DAY IN A WHILE,, ONE AT A TIME THOUGH,,,,,,,,,
I CAN STOP ANYTIME,,,,,,,,,:P

STAKED 18
LOST 17 PTS !
WON 5.28PTS
LOSS 11.72

added wrong

STAKED 18
LOST 17
WON 7.28
LOSS OF 9.72

argosy2006

RESULTS FOR JAN 2011

STAKED 115PTS
WON 112.48TS
LOST 92PTS

CLEAR PROFIT 20.48PTS

18% ROI

RESULTS FOR DEC 2010

STAKED 115

AND 22.00 PTS PROFIT


TWO MONTHS OF PROFIT, AND I KNOW I HAVE BACKED LOTS OF SILLY
RACES, WISHFUL THINKING THAT FAVOURITE WOULD LOSE RATHER
THAN PUTTING EFFORT INTO MY RACES,
THIS MONTH I'LL BE MORE DISCIPLINED, HOPE TO IMPROVE GREATLY
________________________________________________________________
FEB 2011 RESULTS SO FAR
Staked 72
Won 64.43
Lost 62
Profit 2.43 PTS

STILL IN PROFIT AFTER AN AWFUL BAD RUN,
THAT IN ITSELF GIVES ME HOPE

argosy2006

Backing next three in market after the favourite on BF
Eliminating also one horse within 1.00 of favourite
if thats how prices go




5.40 WOLVES

argosy2006

argosy2006 wrote: »

Backing next three in market after the favourite on BF
Eliminating also one horse within 1.00 of favourite
if thats how prices go




5.40 WOLVES

5.40 wolves WINNER BF 7.76

STAKED 3
LOST 2
WON 6.67 PTS
PROFIT 4.67PTS

argosy2006

Backing next three in market after the favourite on BF
Eliminating also one horse within 1.00 of favourite
if thats how prices go


4.20 SOUTHWELL only going to eliminate one favourite in this race, even though there is one with in 1.00 of it

argosy2006

argosy2006 wrote: »

Backing next three in market after the favourite on BF
Eliminating also one horse within 1.00 of favourite
if thats how prices go


4.20 SOUTHWELL only going to eliminate one favourite in this race, even though there is one with in 1.00 of it

Crazy, late late money for ACE MASTER and it rocks home as favourite, was in my top three until that late money, wanted it to win, not as favourite,, fixed race,


-3pts

argosy2006

Backing next three in market after the favourite on BF
Eliminating also one horse within 1.00 of favourite
if thats how prices go



5.10 KEMPTON - 3pts
5.40 KEMPTON - 3pts
6.10 KEMPTON - 3pts
6.40 KEMPTON -3pts
7.40 KEMPTON +7.64 bf
8.10 KEMPTON +6.42 bf

STAKED 18
LOST 14
WON 12.06 PTS
LOSS 1.94PTS

argosy2006

Backing next three in market after the favourite on BF
Eliminating also one horse within 1.00 of favourite
if thats how prices go




5.30 WOLVES + 6.51 BF
7.00 WOLVES -3PTS

STAKED 6
LOST 5
WON 5.51
PROFIT 0.51 PTS

argosy2006

Backing next three in market after the favourite on BF
Eliminating also one horse within 1.00 of favourite
if thats how prices go


1.50 LINGFIELD
2.20 LINGFIELD
2.40 SANDOWN
3.45 FAKENHAM

-12 pts

argosy2006

Backing next three in market after the favourite on BF
Eliminating also one horse within 1.00 of favourite
if thats how prices go


2.55 LINGFIELD -3PTS
3.25 LINGFIELD -3PTS
4.00 LINGFIELD WINNER 7.22 BF
5.10 LINGFIELD WINNER 9.53 BF

STAKED 12
LOST 10 PTS
WON 14.75 PTS
PROFIT 4.75

argosy2006

RESULTS FOR JAN 2011

STAKED 115PTS
WON 112.48TS
LOST 92PTS

CLEAR PROFIT 20.48PTS

18% ROI

RESULTS FOR DEC 2010

STAKED 115

AND 22.00 PTS PROFIT


TWO MONTHS OF PROFIT, AND I KNOW I HAVE BACKED LOTS OF SILLY
RACES, WISHFUL THINKING THAT FAVOURITE WOULD LOSE RATHER
THAN PUTTING EFFORT INTO MY RACES,
THIS MONTH I'LL BE MORE DISCIPLINED, HOPE TO IMPROVE GREATLY
________________________________________________________________
FEB 2011 RESULTS SO FAR
Staked 126
Won 103.42
Lost 110.00
Loss of -6.58 PTS

I'v finally entered a loss , still no discipline, staked too much in one day, i'll play 2 more races this month,
try to get it to a + for the month

argosy2006

Backing next three in market after the favourite on BF
Eliminating also one horse within 1.00 of favourite
if thats how prices go

1.50 KEMPTON

argosy2006

VALENTINO
ROYAL
FORTUNATE

argosy2006

argosy2006 wrote: »

Backing next three in market after the favourite on BF
Eliminating also one horse within 1.00 of favourite
if thats how prices go

1.50 KEMPTON

1.50 KEMPTON , WINNER FORTUNATE BF 8.74

STAKED 3
LOST 2
WON 7.74 PTS
PROFIT 5.74 PTS

argosy2006

Backing next three in market after the favourite on BF
Eliminating also one horse within 1.00 of favourite
if thats how prices go


5.25 KEMPTON

argosy2006

EASTERN GIFT, beating by a pimple on other horses nose! caught on the line
DICHOH
HAVING A BALL

argosy2006

NEW MONTH,
GOING TO ACTUALLY NAME MY HORSES THIS MONTH
3 HORSES PER RACE

3.50 BANGOR
NUMIDE
OPEN DAY
DEVOTION TO DUTY , ____ NUMIDE WINS 5.95 BF

4.20 BANGOR
SULLUMO
OUR JIM
SOUTH O 'THE BORDER _____ NO WINNER - 3PTS

STAKED 6
LOST 5
WON 4.95
LOSS OF 0.05

argosy2006

3.30 ludlow
ALESANDRO
LEXICON LAD
NICEONEFRANKIE __________ -3pts

3.40 southwell
SILKBOUNTY

---

non runner
BIGALO VERA B
SAILING NORTH __________ -2pts

4.40 SOUTHWELL
MOTTLEY CREW

---

WINNER BF 8.20 BF
REALT NA MARA
FINAL SALUTE______________ -2PTS


STAKED 8
LOST 7
WON 7.20 PTS
PROFIT 0.20 PT

argosy2006

3.00 newbury

QUILINTON
ITS CRUCIAL
NOBLE CRUSADER