Damaging winds Thursday 13:00 onward

WolfeIRE

there are some strong gusts here but no real sustained winds of note in between. Rain is surprisingly light and intermittent considering I am on high ground. I think that the fact it is moving across the country quite rapidly has something to do with it.

Candles at the ready for tomorrow. Have to sort out a gas cyclinder for fire yet though.

thetonynator

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Nothing very different on the 18z GFS (or the 18z GEM which shows the low at 58N 18W 06z 949 mb). Suggestions of a central pressure around 945 mbs but the spacing of the isobars is the big thing to watch and that is very tight across the northern half of Ireland.

Given the duration of the strong winds as well as estimated peak gusts, would have to say there is some potential for damage and people would be well advised to stay off the roads if at all possible.

The south coast would be marginal for damaging wind gusts, I am going to speculate here but peak wind gusts recorded tomorrow afternoon will liikely be in this sort of range:

MALIN HEAD 100 kt
BELMULLET 95 kt
MACE HEAD 84 kt
SHANNON 70 kt
VALENTIA 72 kt
CORK 60 kt
INLAND 55 kt
SOUTHEAST 58 kt
CASEMENT 63 kt
DUBLIN 65 kt
ALDERGROVE 65 kt

When I say "inland" I basically mean any station not listed above that's inland, but some of them seem a bit less exposed than others. Your local situation could be estimated from that list.

There will be very large battering storm waves on the west coast. I hope anyone planning to observe the storm will take all precautions and not expose yourselves to danger from extreme waves.

The situation ranges from very windy with moderate damage potential north to quite windy with limited damage potential south. There again, if you live in a deep river valley running north-south somewhere in northern Ireland, probably won't feel much more than 45 kts peak, but if you're on a hill in the south could see 65 kts. So your exposure is also important as well as the region you're living in.

Every storm has its own irregular features so there will be an element of nowcasting to this, and some of the wind potential will be contained in any squally shower bands that form -- you can anticipate that these might tend to come in through gaps in the topography and quite often north Clare and Galway get hit by these, so would stress that Clare is just about as much at risk of damaging wind gusts as Connacht. Often the max winds in these storms stay in the range of 964 to 976 mbs rather than closer to the storm centre. But given the track I think Malin Head will win the top gust prize.

One other thought, be aware that there will be a secondary wind peak from the front coming through late tonight, so if you notice gusts to say 40 kt then they die off to the 30 kt range, that won't indicate a weakening of the storm, we're expecting that brief weakening of the wind right after the frontal passage and the first part of the clearing trend. Winds will gradually ramp up as the stronger gradient near the low centre approaches. Would predict that the strongest winds will be 3-6 p.m.

And that exactly where I am, except in the south east, deep in the nore valley.

snow ghost

IMBACKLATER wrote: »

winds here now getting pretty rough,

Can you here that constant grumbing noise imbacklater? It is actually very strange.

irish1967

5 mins to C-Day and it's rougher outside than I thought it would be at this time. Has carmen just bought a new pair of runners !!

Spindle

This is a question for the experts, perhaps it is on old wives tale but my Father used always say the worst Storms are the ones with very little rain, as the wind always is stronger in these types of storms.

Is this true?

Rougies

demakinz wrote: »

It would be nice to see some lightning tomorrow. Did i just hear her say fenominal seas on the late rte forecast!!:eek: How high could the winds get too in the midlands?

Would be nice to see some lightning alright. Can we give storms surnames? Carmen Electra sounds pretty appropriate to me, what with the nice structure, lightning, and non flabby core and all...

Mayo Exile

At 2336GMT.


Credit to NERC Satellite Receiving Station, Dundee University, Scotland.
Link: http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/

Deep Easterly

Spindle wrote: »

This is a question for the experts, perhaps it is on old wives tale but my Father used always say the worst Storms are the ones with very little rain, as the wind always is stronger in these types of storms.

Is this true?

That could be true in a way as the worst winds tend to follow on from a frontal zone, and usually within a polar maritime one which normally brings no more than a few showers.

irish1967

C-Day has arrived. 11-11-10
Armistice Day (also known as Remembrance Day)
Hopefully a storm to remember !!

maquiladora

Gale Warning

Southerly winds will reach gale force or strong gale force tonight on all Irish Coasts and on the Irish Sea. Southwest winds veering Westerly on Thursday will increase gale force to storm force on all sea areas, with winds occasionally reaching violent storm force on coasts from Slyne Head to Erris Head to Malin Head.
Issued at 23:00 on 10-Nov-2010

nacho libre

just heard the radio forecast at 11:55pm, it was quite interesting for the very Northwest.

irish1967

Mayo Exile wrote: »

At 2336GMT.


Credit to NERC Satellite Receiving Station, Dundee University, Scotland.
Link: http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/

Been looking for a new wallpaper for iPhone. That the one !!

Spindle

Right I am off to bed, work should be fun being in a portakabin with high winds, maybe home early

rhonin

Rain is pretty heavy here now. Some strong gusts too.

snow ghost

Spindle wrote: »

Right I am off to bed, work should be fun being in a portakabin with high winds, maybe home early

See you when you get back from the Emerald city

nacho libre

rhonin wrote: »

Rain is pretty heavy here now. Some strong gusts too.

it's fairly gusty here too.

mickger844posts

Wind getting more gusty here, just had a 37km/ph gust, Pressure 990.1mb, Rh 92%, 0.51mm since midnight.


More Detail @ www.waterfordcityweather.com

rilz

isle of man wrote: »

o please god no,
would rather sink than be pushed to the uk

Yea, I don't blame you. I still think Isle of Man will see the strongest winds.

Who knows with these storms one shift north or south etc who knows what will happen.

irish1967

Now heavy constant rain here. Gusts increasing in severity.

rilz

irish1967 wrote: »

Now heavy constant rain here. Gusts increasing in severity.

It is drizzlin here on east coast of NI with 1mph winds. Hope it picks up a little lol

hellboy99

Just starting to rain here, wind up to 12km/h so far, 989.2hPa and Rh 91%

maquiladora

SHERKIN ISLAND(A) S 31 Gust 45

The 18Z GFS had max gusts on 25-30 knots for that area at this time.

Just goes to show that gusts at exposed areas can be a fair bit higher than what the models show.

Also, 90kph gust recorded at Kinsale Energy platform.

maquiladora

Exciting as it is to follow this, please don't forget safety tomorrow lads when yer on the roads or out and about in it.

Met Eireann's John Eagleton said electricity poles and trees could come down in some areas while some structural damage could be expected to homes and other buildings.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5gruoPH2Mx2R4bt9irzAWturN58vA?docId=N0277581289412285366A

Deep Easterly

Gusting up to 41mph here now. Has become notatbly gusty in the last few mins. 980.6mb falling

maquiladora

Am I wishcasting or did it jog south a bit in the last few frames?

http://www.sat24.com/gb

digme

in cork and noticed a strong gust every 2 minutes or so, no idea on the speed, but i have double glazed windows

hellboy99

maquiladora wrote: »

Am I wishcasting or did it jog south a bit in the last few frames?

http://www.sat24.com/gb

Looks to be moving a bit south.

nacho libre

"Yes, that is true, although it may appear as though it has moved north, I would imagine it is an illusion caused by a projected fluctuation in how the system interacts with the jet stream at that time. It may well appear to push south again on the 00z, we don't know because it is still a developing and dynamic situation."



it's also worth bearing in mind with saturated ground, coupled with winds which are expected to be strong for a good length of time, that even though mean windspeed and gusts are unlikely to be on a par with previous major storms, there could be quite a few whipped trees by the time this thing dies down in connacht and ulster.

Deep Easterly

11pm analysis

mountainy man

getting gusty up here, not looking forward to this, house is very exposed , am half way up a mountain eek....:eek: